From 01788da51763bed65fba5846b92f5e825650ac30 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2021 12:45:01 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Daily commit --- data/csetforetell-questions.json | 234 +- data/elicit-questions.json | 5570 +++---- data/fantasyscotus-questions.json | 504 +- data/goodjudgment-questions.json | 209 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json | 704 +- data/hypermind-questions.json | 92 +- data/ladbrokes-questions.json | 464 +- data/metaculus-questions.json | 8998 ++++++------ data/metaforecasts.csv | 4645 +++--- data/metaforecasts.json | 20439 +++++++++++++------------- data/polymarket-questions.json | 530 +- data/predictit-questions.json | 1196 +- data/smarkets-questions.json | 347 +- data/williamhill-questions.json | 742 +- src/index.js | 15 +- 15 files changed, 22550 insertions(+), 22139 deletions(-) diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index ef1486a..3000bcd 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "68", - "numforecasters": "61", + "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -28,17 +28,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "40", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "46", + "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -49,32 +49,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.11220000000000001, + "probability": 0.1084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.1967, + "probability": 0.1932, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2813, + "probability": 0.2802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19649999999999998, + "probability": 0.1954, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.2133, + "probability": 0.2229, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -85,17 +85,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "21", - "numforecasters": "20", + "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasters": "23", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -106,17 +106,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "19", - "numforecasters": "16", + "numforecasts": "22", + "numforecasters": "18", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -127,17 +127,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "17", - "numforecasters": "16", + "numforecasts": "19", + "numforecasters": "17", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -153,17 +153,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1274, + "probability": 0.12890000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.30670000000000003, + "probability": 0.3059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.3063, + "probability": 0.3056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "48", "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 2 }, @@ -184,32 +184,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 70,000", - "probability": 0.1272, + "probability": 0.12560000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.34299999999999997, + "probability": 0.33159999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", - "probability": 0.31679999999999997, + "probability": 0.3218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", - "probability": 0.1555, + "probability": 0.16519999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 130,000", - "probability": 0.0574, + "probability": 0.0558, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "83", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "88", + "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -220,32 +220,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.11630000000000001, + "probability": 0.0755, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1747, + "probability": 0.171, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.4926, + "probability": 0.534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.1968, + "probability": 0.2005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.0195, + "probability": 0.019, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "31", - "numforecasters": "27", + "numforecasts": "35", + "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -292,32 +292,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.050199999999999995, + "probability": 0.0512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12560000000000002, + "probability": 0.13449999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.23129999999999998, + "probability": 0.2414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3196, + "probability": 0.312, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2733, + "probability": 0.2608, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "83", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -328,17 +328,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "138", - "numforecasters": "108", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -358,8 +358,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", - "numforecasters": "134", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "135", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -380,21 +380,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", - "probability": 0.405, + "probability": 0.4056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion", - "probability": 0.2175, + "probability": 0.21719999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion", - "probability": 0.0725, + "probability": 0.0722, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "56", + "numforecasts": "57", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 2 }, @@ -406,32 +406,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $13 billion", - "probability": 0.0337, + "probability": 0.0332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12369999999999999, + "probability": 0.1242, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.4183, + "probability": 0.4213, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.32130000000000003, + "probability": 0.3194, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.10300000000000001, + "probability": 0.10189999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "57", - "numforecasters": "43", + "numforecasts": "58", + "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -442,32 +442,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.1943, + "probability": 0.1937, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3171, + "probability": 0.3191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.3009, + "probability": 0.2991, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.1464, + "probability": 0.1467, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0412, + "probability": 0.0414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "149", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -478,32 +478,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.051, + "probability": 0.0506, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1984, + "probability": 0.19329999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.3619, + "probability": 0.35350000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2429, + "probability": 0.254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.1458, + "probability": 0.14859999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "113", - "numforecasters": "90", + "numforecasts": "115", + "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -538,7 +538,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -574,7 +574,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "71", + "numforecasts": "72", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 2 }, @@ -586,32 +586,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1264, + "probability": 0.12869999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.46130000000000004, + "probability": 0.45649999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.2834, + "probability": 0.2862, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.09910000000000001, + "probability": 0.099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000", - "probability": 0.0297, + "probability": 0.0296, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "102", + "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -622,32 +622,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 0.45%", - "probability": 0.049699999999999994, + "probability": 0.0484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1778, + "probability": 0.1732, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%", - "probability": 0.28300000000000003, + "probability": 0.2768, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2289, + "probability": 0.2242, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2605, + "probability": 0.2774, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", - "numforecasters": "54", + "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -667,7 +667,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasts": "152", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, @@ -724,8 +724,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "346", - "numforecasters": "194", + "numforecasts": "357", + "numforecasters": "196", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -736,27 +736,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0242, + "probability": 0.0223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08220000000000001, + "probability": 0.0738, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2161, + "probability": 0.21559999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6775, + "probability": 0.6883, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "244", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "249", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -767,17 +767,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.1177, + "probability": 0.11810000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1777, + "probability": 0.1775, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.26780000000000004, + "probability": 0.2675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -791,7 +791,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "236", + "numforecasts": "237", "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3 }, @@ -803,17 +803,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "197", - "numforecasters": "132", + "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -834,7 +834,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.2133, + "probability": 0.2139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -844,11 +844,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.2914, + "probability": 0.2908, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "220", + "numforecasts": "221", "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3 } diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json index 10cd033..693059b 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.json +++ b/data/elicit-questions.json @@ -286,16 +286,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5817721518987341, + "probability": 0.581717791411043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4182278481012659, + "probability": 0.41828220858895704, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 163, "numforecasters": 70, "stars": 1 }, @@ -359,26 +359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 67, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1975862068965517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8024137931034483, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -399,6 +379,26 @@ "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1975862068965517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8024137931034483, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -780,42 +780,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47382978723404257, + "probability": 0.02909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261702127659574, + "probability": 0.9709090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38967741935483874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6103225806451613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1 }, @@ -860,43 +840,43 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02909090909090909, + "probability": 0.47382978723404257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9709090909090909, + "probability": 0.5261702127659574, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 29, + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "probability": 0.38967741935483874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "probability": 0.6103225806451613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 28, + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -919,6 +899,26 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -966,16 +966,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8075925925925925, + "probability": 0.7983928571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19240740740740747, + "probability": 0.20160714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "numforecasters": 27, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1019,26 +1019,6 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4023809523809524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5976190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 42, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1099,6 +1079,26 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4023809523809524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5976190476190476, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1140,22 +1140,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5855882352941176, + "probability": 0.09692307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41441176470588237, + "probability": 0.9030769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1180,22 +1180,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09692307692307692, + "probability": 0.5855882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9030769230769231, + "probability": 0.41441176470588237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 34, "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1239,66 +1239,6 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8411111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15888888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 27, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19347826086956524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8065217391304348, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1319,6 +1259,26 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1360,23 +1320,43 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6084375, + "probability": 0.8411111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39156250000000004, + "probability": 0.15888888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 21, + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -1399,46 +1379,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7363999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.994090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.005909090909090975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1459,6 +1399,46 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7363999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1479,6 +1459,46 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.994090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.005909090909090975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6084375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39156250000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1499,26 +1519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13119999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1540,42 +1540,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "probability": 0.04739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "probability": 0.9526086956521739, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1619,26 +1599,6 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2782857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7217142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1659,26 +1619,6 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34127659574468083, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6587234042553192, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1700,38 +1640,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04739130434782608, + "probability": 0.34127659574468083, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9526086956521739, + "probability": 0.6587234042553192, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 47, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "probability": 0.2782857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "probability": 0.7217142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1759,6 +1719,46 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1919,6 +1919,26 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1959,26 +1979,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2099,26 +2099,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6427777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35722222222222233, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2139,46 +2119,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6434000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3565999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2199,6 +2139,26 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6427777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35722222222222233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2219,6 +2179,46 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6434000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3565999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2279,66 +2279,6 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08388888888888889, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9161111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2359,6 +2299,46 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2400,42 +2380,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982, + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2460,22 +2440,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08388888888888889, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9161111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2500,38 +2500,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "probability": 0.35526315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42222222222222217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8089473684210526, + "probability": 0.6447368421052632, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2539,46 +2519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7770588235294117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2229411764705883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0811764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9188235294117647, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2599,6 +2539,46 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7770588235294117, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2229411764705883, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42222222222222217, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2619,66 +2599,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35526315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6447368421052632, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2719,6 +2639,126 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0811764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9188235294117647, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2739,26 +2779,6 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.118125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.881875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2780,22 +2800,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2820,18 +2860,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2839,6 +2879,46 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.118125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.881875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.933125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2880,18 +2960,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2900,18 +2980,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, + "probability": 0.926875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "probability": 0.073125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2919,66 +2999,6 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23450000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2999,26 +3019,6 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3040,22 +3040,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3080,62 +3080,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28214285714285714, + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7178571428571429, + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.062, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.938, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3160,42 +3120,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3220,38 +3160,118 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.111875, + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.888125, + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11733333333333333, + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8826666666666667, + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3280,62 +3300,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, + "probability": 0.05941176470588236, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "probability": 0.9405882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.111875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.888125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3360,38 +3360,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "probability": 0.11733333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.8826666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3400,22 +3380,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05941176470588236, + "probability": 0.28214285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9405882352941176, + "probability": 0.7178571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3440,43 +3420,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.106875, + "probability": 0.062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.893125, + "probability": 0.938, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -3499,46 +3459,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1469230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8530769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. 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"title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "probability": 0.1336842105263158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3640,18 +3640,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, + "probability": 0.320625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3659,206 +3659,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - 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", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3940,82 +3800,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - 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"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4040,22 +3840,382 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - 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", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11076923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8892307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6315384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3684615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4080,18 +4240,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4120,118 +4320,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "probability": 0.013076923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4753333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "probability": 0.9869230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4239,6 +4339,46 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8566666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.006, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4280,38 +4420,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "probability": 0.4607142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "probability": 0.5392857142857144, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4320,42 +4440,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "probability": 0.2025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "probability": 0.7975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "probability": 0.07714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "probability": 0.9228571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4380,118 +4500,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6315384615384615, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3684615384615385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8566666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4499,26 +4519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4607142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5392857142857144, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4559,6 +4559,46 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4579,6 +4619,26 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4640,18 +4700,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013076923076923076, + "probability": 0.46692307692307694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "probability": 0.533076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4659,126 +4719,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07714285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9228571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7927272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4307692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5692307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4800,18 +4740,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4860,22 +4800,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.23377083333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "probability": 0.7662291666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5621428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43785714285714283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4900,182 +4860,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28428571428571425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7157142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6866666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31333333333333324, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4314285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5100,18 +4900,78 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "probability": 0.140625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "probability": 0.859375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9325, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2475, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5120,38 +4980,78 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23377083333333332, + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7662291666666667, + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5179,6 +5079,186 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7783333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22166666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5220,18 +5300,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5557142857142857, + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5239,6 +5359,386 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7927272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6836363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5279,106 +5779,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5621428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43785714285714283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21272727272727274, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7872727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6836363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5399,446 +5799,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7783333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22166666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13666666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2809090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7190909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5484615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45153846153846156, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5860,318 +5820,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27785714285714286, + "probability": 0.5484615384615384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "probability": 0.45153846153846156, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24600000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.754, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.113, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.556, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44399999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8790909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.750909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24909090909090903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "probability": 0.4727272727272728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6200,18 +5880,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, + "probability": 0.198, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, + "probability": 0.802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6219,6 +5899,46 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8790909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6239,6 +5959,66 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6279,6 +6059,46 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6320,18 +6140,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6339,46 +6199,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17300000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21099999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6400,18 +6220,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, + "probability": 0.025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, + "probability": 0.975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6420,18 +6240,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6439,6 +6279,86 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.887, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.013636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44399999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6479,6 +6399,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6500,18 +6440,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, + "probability": 0.789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, + "probability": 0.21099999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6520,38 +6460,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "probability": 0.17300000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8908333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.827, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6579,46 +6499,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08857142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9114285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6639,26 +6519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4309090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6679,6 +6539,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6719,6 +6599,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.217, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.783, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6739,6 +6639,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9114285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6760,8 +6680,128 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4309090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.750909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24909090909090903, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24600000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { @@ -6780,63 +6820,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.025, + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json b/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json index 80ac0f8..8f712a7 100644 --- a/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json +++ b/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json @@ -1,69 +1,29 @@ [ - { - "title": "In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21428571428571427, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "73.68% (70 out of 95) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "73.96% (71 out of 96) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7368421052631579, + "probability": 0.7395833333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26315789473684215, + "probability": 0.26041666666666663, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5294117647058824, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47058823529411764, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "33.33% (21 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -76,74 +36,74 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "51.92% (27 out of 52) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4807692307692307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "10.47% (9 out of 86) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "10.34% (9 out of 87) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10465116279069768, + "probability": 0.10344827586206896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8953488372093024, + "probability": 0.896551724137931, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "28.00% (14 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2857142857142857, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7142857142857143, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.30158730158730157, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6984126984126984, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -159,11 +119,31 @@ "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.30158730158730157, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6984126984126984, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -179,31 +159,11 @@ "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15789473684210525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8421052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -219,11 +179,31 @@ "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15789473684210525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8421052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -243,27 +223,27 @@ "title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "36.00% (18 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3673469387755102, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6326530612244898, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -279,31 +259,11 @@ "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6363636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36363636363636365, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -319,11 +279,31 @@ "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6363636363636364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36363636363636365, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -343,7 +323,7 @@ "title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -363,7 +343,7 @@ "title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -383,27 +363,27 @@ "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "37.50% (3 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.375, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.625, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 8, + "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -416,34 +396,34 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "27.27% (3 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "30.77% (4 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2727272727272727, + "probability": 0.3076923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7272727272727273, + "probability": 0.6923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -463,7 +443,7 @@ "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -483,67 +463,47 @@ "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "80.00% (8 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "81.82% (9 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.8181818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18181818181818177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "42.86% (3 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "50.00% (4 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42857142857142855, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5714285714285714, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 7, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 4, + "numforecasts": 8, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -559,11 +519,31 @@ "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 5, + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -583,7 +563,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -603,7 +583,7 @@ "title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -619,31 +599,31 @@ "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 2, - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 2, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -663,7 +643,7 @@ "title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -676,14 +656,14 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 2, + "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -703,7 +683,7 @@ "title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -723,7 +703,7 @@ "title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -743,7 +723,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -763,7 +743,7 @@ "title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -783,7 +763,7 @@ "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -803,7 +783,7 @@ "title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -823,7 +803,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -843,27 +823,27 @@ "title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "27.78% (5 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3125, + "probability": 0.2777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6875, + "probability": 0.7222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -883,7 +863,27 @@ "title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8571428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -903,7 +903,7 @@ "title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -919,31 +919,11 @@ "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16666666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/trump-v-sierra-club/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -963,47 +943,27 @@ "title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-dai/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "35.29% (6 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.375, + "probability": 0.35294117647058826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.625, + "probability": 0.6470588235294117, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-association-of-broadcasters-v-prometheus-radio-project/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1019,11 +979,31 @@ "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wolf-v-innovation-law-lab/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1043,7 +1023,7 @@ "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 22) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1056,27 +1036,27 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "3.57% (1 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.9642857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 2 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json index 028959b..9c57824 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json @@ -1,4 +1,33 @@ [ + { + "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, to less than $10.00", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 4 + }, { "title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", @@ -17,7 +46,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -27,60 +56,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 21 million barrels per day", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 30 million barrels per day", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory \"carbon pricing mechanism\" become law before 1 January 2023?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a \"carbon pricing mechanism\" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System, the California Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -90,7 +66,7 @@ "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.", + "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", @@ -120,39 +96,6 @@ ], "stars": 4 }, - { - "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", @@ -166,12 +109,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -188,85 +131,33 @@ "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?", + "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column \"2021 Traveler Throughput\" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.", + "description": "Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ", "options": [ { - "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "name": "Before 1 April 2021", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", + "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", + "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "options": [ - { - "name": "10% or less", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 30%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Games will be postponed again by more than a day", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Games will be cancelled", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -301,7 +192,7 @@ "title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.", + "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.", "options": [ { "name": "Lower by more than 8%", @@ -315,12 +206,12 @@ }, { "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -402,12 +293,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index 2c8df09..98a8d42 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -7,38 +7,38 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "46", - "numforecasters": "40", + "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021:  Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "56", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "94", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -49,17 +49,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "30", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "43", + "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -70,17 +70,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", - "numforecasters": "137", + "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasters": "143", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -100,8 +100,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "100", - "numforecasters": "77", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -112,22 +112,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -136,8 +136,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -158,17 +158,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$180 billion or more", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "53", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasters": "40", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -184,17 +184,17 @@ }, { "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "88", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -225,12 +225,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 130.0", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "60", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "63", + "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -246,27 +246,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3.1%", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "132", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -287,22 +287,22 @@ }, { "name": "Mank", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -321,8 +321,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "119", - "numforecasters": "77", + "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -362,7 +362,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasts": "90", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3 }, @@ -374,17 +374,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "145", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -405,22 +405,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", - "numforecasters": "159", + "numforecasts": "329", + "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -431,7 +431,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -441,7 +441,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -456,12 +456,12 @@ }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "133", - "numforecasters": "91", + "numforecasts": "145", + "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -472,17 +472,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "130", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "137", + "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -493,7 +493,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -503,12 +503,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -518,11 +518,11 @@ }, { "name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", + "numforecasts": "87", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, @@ -539,22 +539,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", - "numforecasters": "111", + "numforecasts": "206", + "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -565,17 +565,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "77", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -586,12 +586,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -615,8 +615,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "241", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -636,8 +636,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "169", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "171", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -648,12 +648,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -662,8 +662,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", - "numforecasters": "46", + "numforecasts": "91", + "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -683,8 +683,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "593", - "numforecasters": "401", + "numforecasts": "618", + "numforecasters": "410", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -700,7 +700,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -710,7 +710,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -719,8 +719,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "456", - "numforecasters": "285", + "numforecasts": "470", + "numforecasters": "289", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -740,8 +740,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "474", - "numforecasters": "378", + "numforecasts": "493", + "numforecasters": "384", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -752,17 +752,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -778,17 +778,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -797,8 +797,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "350", - "numforecasters": "216", + "numforecasts": "365", + "numforecasters": "223", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -814,17 +814,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -833,8 +833,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", - "numforecasters": "32", + "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -845,17 +845,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -869,8 +869,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "231", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "239", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -891,12 +891,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -905,7 +905,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasts": "197", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, @@ -931,7 +931,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "154", + "numforecasts": "156", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -943,7 +943,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -953,12 +953,12 @@ }, { "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "632", - "numforecasters": "384", + "numforecasts": "653", + "numforecasters": "390", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -978,7 +978,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasts": "99", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, @@ -990,16 +990,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "222", + "numforecasts": "230", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1011,17 +1011,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "256", - "numforecasters": "83", + "numforecasts": "266", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1041,8 +1041,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "100", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasters": "56", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1053,17 +1053,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "295", - "numforecasters": "130", + "numforecasts": "299", + "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1083,15 +1083,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "208", - "numforecasters": "151", + "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only SpaceX", @@ -1114,7 +1114,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasts": "202", "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1135,8 +1135,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "186", - "numforecasters": "94", + "numforecasts": "189", + "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1162,12 +1162,12 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1176,7 +1176,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "164", + "numforecasts": "169", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1188,16 +1188,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasts": "177", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1218,8 +1218,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "129", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1239,7 +1239,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "335", + "numforecasts": "339", "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1270,8 +1270,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", - "numforecasters": "151", + "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1287,12 +1287,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1306,8 +1306,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "185", - "numforecasters": "84", + "numforecasts": "189", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1318,17 +1318,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "111", - "numforecasters": "63", + "numforecasts": "115", + "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1365,16 +1365,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "253", + "numforecasts": "257", "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1395,7 +1395,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasts": "176", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1403,7 +1403,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4b28272a39222d22282a3f222425380b2c24242f213e2f2c262e253f6528242674383e29212e283f761a3e2e383f2224256e797b08272a39222d22282a3f222425). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0d6e616c7f646b646e6c796462637e4d6a6262696778696a60686379236e6260327e786f67686e79305c78687e79646263283f3d4e616c7f646b646e6c79646263). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1416,7 +1416,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", + "numforecasts": "428", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1438,12 +1438,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1452,7 +1452,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasts": "500", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1473,7 +1473,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasts": "177", "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1494,7 +1494,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "344", + "numforecasts": "349", "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1515,7 +1515,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasts": "96", "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1527,7 +1527,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1537,7 +1537,7 @@ }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1546,7 +1546,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasts": "209", "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1572,8 +1572,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasters": "40", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1584,21 +1584,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1610,16 +1610,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasts": "123", "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1655,7 +1655,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "266", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1676,7 +1676,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasts": "202", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1702,8 +1702,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", - "numforecasters": "74", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1723,7 +1723,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "305", + "numforecasts": "307", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1744,7 +1744,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "278", + "numforecasts": "282", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1791,7 +1791,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasts": "201", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1803,7 +1803,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1813,11 +1813,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", + "numforecasts": "217", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1834,12 +1834,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1853,7 +1853,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "307", + "numforecasts": "310", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1874,7 +1874,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "237", + "numforecasts": "239", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1900,8 +1900,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "129", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1933,16 +1933,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1959,16 +1959,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "511", + "numforecasts": "521", "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1985,7 +1985,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only by the EMA", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1995,12 +1995,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "469", - "numforecasters": "219", + "numforecasts": "479", + "numforecasters": "220", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2020,7 +2020,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "289", + "numforecasts": "291", "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2041,8 +2041,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "386", - "numforecasters": "230", + "numforecasts": "394", + "numforecasters": "231", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2062,39 +2062,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "316", - "numforecasters": "105", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, only Michael Spavor", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "371", - "numforecasters": "105", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2114,8 +2083,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", - "numforecasters": "127", + "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2136,12 +2105,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2150,7 +2119,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "290", + "numforecasts": "298", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2171,7 +2140,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasts": "91", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2192,8 +2161,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "426", - "numforecasters": "216", + "numforecasts": "432", + "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2204,16 +2173,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "121", + "numforecasts": "123", "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2225,16 +2194,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", + "numforecasts": "97", "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2270,7 +2239,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "302", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2301,7 +2270,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasts": "149", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2313,7 +2282,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2328,7 +2297,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2342,7 +2311,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2363,8 +2332,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "660", - "numforecasters": "213", + "numforecasts": "671", + "numforecasters": "215", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2375,22 +2344,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2399,8 +2368,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "594", - "numforecasters": "259", + "numforecasts": "603", + "numforecasters": "260", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2421,16 +2390,16 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "550", + "numforecasts": "567", "numforecasters": "223", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2451,7 +2420,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "376", + "numforecasts": "379", "numforecasters": "213", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2472,7 +2441,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "246", + "numforecasts": "248", "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2493,7 +2462,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "348", + "numforecasts": "354", "numforecasters": "189", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2514,8 +2483,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "357", - "numforecasters": "171", + "numforecasts": "363", + "numforecasters": "172", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2541,16 +2510,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "369", + "numforecasts": "384", "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2571,8 +2540,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "258", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "263", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2592,8 +2561,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "343", - "numforecasters": "177", + "numforecasts": "347", + "numforecasters": "179", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2613,7 +2582,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasts": "282", "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2649,8 +2618,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1544", - "numforecasters": "230", + "numforecasts": "1562", + "numforecasters": "237", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2670,8 +2639,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "324", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "331", + "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2691,7 +2660,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", + "numforecasts": "216", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2748,7 +2717,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2784,8 +2753,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "605", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "610", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2805,7 +2774,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "809", + "numforecasts": "813", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2817,17 +2786,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2841,8 +2810,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "560", - "numforecasters": "246", + "numforecasts": "574", + "numforecasters": "249", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2877,7 +2846,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "531", + "numforecasts": "537", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2898,7 +2867,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "221", + "numforecasts": "223", "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2919,8 +2888,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "435", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "438", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2931,17 +2900,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2965,7 +2934,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "403", + "numforecasts": "416", "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3001,7 +2970,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "725", + "numforecasts": "730", "numforecasters": "210", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3022,8 +2991,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1218", - "numforecasters": "465", + "numforecasts": "1236", + "numforecasters": "466", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3043,7 +3012,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "399", + "numforecasts": "401", "numforecasters": "164", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3085,8 +3054,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "765", - "numforecasters": "169", + "numforecasts": "769", + "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3107,12 +3076,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3121,29 +3090,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "927", - "numforecasters": "170", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "214", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "937", + "numforecasters": "171", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3163,7 +3111,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "333", + "numforecasts": "338", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3175,16 +3123,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "678", + "numforecasts": "684", "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3220,7 +3168,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "486", + "numforecasts": "487", "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3232,12 +3180,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 25,000", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3256,7 +3204,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "389", + "numforecasts": "391", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3268,7 +3216,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3278,16 +3226,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "327", + "numforecasts": "330", "numforecasters": "113", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3323,7 +3271,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasts": "295", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3354,8 +3302,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "940", - "numforecasters": "328", + "numforecasts": "956", + "numforecasters": "333", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3396,8 +3344,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "691", - "numforecasters": "146", + "numforecasts": "694", + "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3454,16 +3402,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "60", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3499,7 +3447,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasts": "246", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3521,17 +3469,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2356", - "numforecasters": "955", + "numforecasts": "2390", + "numforecasters": "966", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3573,21 +3521,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2,200,000", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "311", + "numforecasts": "314", "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3654,7 +3602,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "406", + "numforecasts": "407", "numforecasters": "224", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index 875b60e..38d8c3e 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -82,57 +82,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5490196078431372, + "probability": 0.548076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.1764705882352941, + "probability": 0.14423076923076925, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -218,12 +218,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -262,27 +262,27 @@ }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.010101010101010102, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.0707070707070707, + "probability": 0.15841584158415842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.2727272727272727, + "probability": 0.2178217821782178, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.6464646464646465, + "probability": 0.6039603960396039, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -296,27 +296,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.010204081632653062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.653061224489796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.20408163265306123, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.06122448979591837, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07142857142857144, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -552,17 +552,17 @@ }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.26262626262626265, + "probability": 0.29292929292929293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.4242424242424243, + "probability": 0.4141414141414142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.18181818181818182, + "probability": 0.16161616161616163, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -581,17 +581,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.7920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another Likud politician", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another politician not from Likud", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19801980198019803, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -605,17 +605,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2277227722772277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.4752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -673,22 +673,22 @@ }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.4095238095238095, + "probability": 0.3092783505154639, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.17142857142857143, + "probability": 0.18556701030927833, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, + "probability": 0.19587628865979378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.23809523809523805, + "probability": 0.3092783505154639, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -702,22 +702,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.6990291262135923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2621359223300971, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.02912621359223301, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -731,22 +731,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9207920792079207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.0594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -817,12 +817,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9313725490196079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06862745098039215, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json index d177630..5b32338 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json @@ -6,427 +6,427 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.07859141097452663, + "probability": 0.077973456957633, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jnr", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.010557055205533428, + "probability": 0.010474046456995477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.03368203327479713, + "probability": 0.03341719583898557, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.010557055205533428, + "probability": 0.010474046456995477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.041607217574749396, + "probability": 0.04128006544815865, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Oprah Winfrey", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Clooney", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dwayne Johnson", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Zuckerberg", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.14146453975414797, + "probability": 0.1403522225237394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kanye West", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tulsi Gabbard", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Meghan Markle", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Gaetz", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - 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"probability": 0.00876715634721038, + "probability": 0.008739842506718219, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)", - "probability": 0.026043611502007305, + "probability": 0.017308315552520392, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.004405387020240042, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share", - "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", - "platform": "Ladbrokes", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Under 5%", - "probability": 0.5772727913500711, + "probability": 0.004391662155117115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "5-10%", - "probability": 0.278867163821419, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "10-20%", - "probability": 0.10070203137995686, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Over 20%", - "probability": 0.04315801344855294, + "name": "Adam Gaines (Ind)", + "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2173,32 +2155,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.05137182005083978, + "probability": 0.050869852455406296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.017123940016946594, + "probability": 0.016956617485135432, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.3684898484659393, + "probability": 0.3843499963297365, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.3175712512233732, + "probability": 0.314468178815239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.1940713201920614, + "probability": 0.19217499816486824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.05137182005083978, + "probability": 0.04118035674961462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2211,12 +2193,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", - "probability": 0.8143322475570033, + "probability": 0.783001808318264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Niko Omilana (Ind)", - "probability": 0.18566775244299674, + "probability": 0.21699819168173598, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2246,7 +2228,7 @@ "platform": "Ladbrokes", "options": [ { - "name": "Peter Gammons (IUKIP)", + "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", "probability": 0.6626506024096386, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2258,6 +2240,44 @@ ], "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "London Mayoral Election: Shaun Bailey 1st Round Vote Share", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", + "platform": "Ladbrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 20%", + "probability": 0.05009633911368015, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20-25%", + "probability": 0.34065510597302506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "25-30%", + "probability": 0.34065510597302506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30-35%", + "probability": 0.17032755298651253, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "35-40%", + "probability": 0.06551059730250482, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Over 40%", + "probability": 0.03275529865125241, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "Boris Johnson: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)", "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", @@ -2334,12 +2354,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour Majority", - "probability": 0.21699819168173598, + "probability": 0.2063492063492063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "NO Labour Majority", - "probability": 0.783001808318264, + "probability": 0.7936507936507936, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2690,12 +2710,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5483028720626633, + "probability": 0.5263157894736842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.4516971279373368, + "probability": 0.47368421052631576, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2708,32 +2728,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.02671114419163361, + "probability": 0.026753318650329982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.40363506778468566, + "probability": 0.38380288359123177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.5249589031881751, + "probability": 0.5446783437791733, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.008991870321936067, + "probability": 0.009006067664467519, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.008991870321936067, + "probability": 0.009006067664467519, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alba", - "probability": 0.02671114419163361, + "probability": 0.026753318650329982, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2746,32 +2766,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 40%", - "probability": 0.09893163695794975, + "probability": 0.09780897699444167, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40-45%", - "probability": 0.3237762664078356, + "probability": 0.3201021065272637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45-50%", - "probability": 0.35615389304861916, + "probability": 0.37142649491560126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50-55%", - "probability": 0.17807694652430958, + "probability": 0.17605615858999504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55-60%", - "probability": 0.034245566639290306, + "probability": 0.02589061155735221, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 60%", - "probability": 0.008815690421995523, + "probability": 0.008715651415346288, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2784,12 +2804,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7619047619047619, + "probability": 0.783001808318264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23809523809523808, + "probability": 0.21699819168173598, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3269,22 +3289,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street (Cons)", - "probability": 0.6997822270433548, + "probability": 0.7221490340550945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenny Wilkinson (LD)", - "probability": 0.009214954078887743, + "probability": 0.009151987758321989, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne (Lab)", - "probability": 0.2863724190669729, + "probability": 0.26410021816872026, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ashvir Sangha (Ind)", - "probability": 0.004630399810784388, + "probability": 0.0045987600178632885, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index 7bf1e5f..a6b7e44 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -1,4 +1,19 @@ [ + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/", @@ -15,33 +30,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/", + "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", - "numforecasts": 212, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", - "numforecasts": 492, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" } }, { @@ -59,6 +111,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/", @@ -75,85 +153,237 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", + "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 526, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock?\nWill Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.\nLocal elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.\nThis question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.\nResolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. \n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "numforecasts": 326, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -172,55 +402,81 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 190, + "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 149, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -239,33 +495,81 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 549, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 186, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "numforecasts": 172, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -285,7 +589,7 @@ } ], "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", @@ -294,13 +598,54 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -309,6 +654,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 279, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/", @@ -325,29 +696,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -376,6 +762,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", + "numforecasts": 98, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", @@ -393,7 +805,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -419,7 +831,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 634, + "numforecasts": 638, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -429,29 +841,81 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", + "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", - "numforecasts": 207, + "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", + "numforecasts": 297, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 259, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 732, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -495,6 +959,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 67, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:54:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", @@ -512,7 +1017,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 376, + "numforecasts": 377, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -538,7 +1043,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -562,6 +1067,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 117, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/", @@ -593,48 +1150,137 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 185, + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/", + "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "numforecasts": 273, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n", + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/", + "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -663,6 +1309,51 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6979/starship-survives-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX has had four flights where prototypes of their Starship vehicle have gone above 10 km, each time resulting in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly- on landing for SN8 and SN9, 8 minutes after landing in the case of SN10, and SN11 in midair.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?\nThis question resolves to the time that an upper stage vehicle made by SpaceX, representative of a vehicle that SpaceX officials expect to bring humans to Mars, flies to a height of at least 10 km, and remains continuously intact for at least 24 hours after making contact with the Earth after flight. If the ship experiences an RUD or has more than 15% of the mass of its main body no longer connected to the main body within 24 hours of landing, that flight will not trigger resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T02:07:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T06:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 185, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/", @@ -695,7 +1386,7 @@ } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 702, + "numforecasts": 709, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -720,60 +1411,8 @@ } }, { - "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 743, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { @@ -787,70 +1426,29 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", - "numforecasts": 391, + "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", + "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -879,13 +1477,229 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", + "numforecasts": 747, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", + "numforecasts": 362, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", + "numforecasts": 186, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -895,70 +1709,182 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 260, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", + "numforecasts": 212, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z" + "close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", + "numforecasts": 231, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n", + "numforecasts": 131, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 190, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -978,7 +1904,7 @@ } ], "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -988,46 +1914,20 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/", @@ -1044,59 +1944,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" } }, { @@ -1156,70 +2041,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/", + "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", - "numforecasts": 132, + "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", + "numforecasts": 207, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -1274,13 +2118,386 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", + "numforecasts": 273, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "numforecasts": 393, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 190, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", + "numforecasts": 130, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 261, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", + "numforecasts": 521, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "numforecasts": 880, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "numforecasts": 102, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", + "numforecasts": 132, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 185, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", @@ -1289,6 +2506,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "numforecasts": 154, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/", @@ -1331,96 +2563,74 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 206, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", - "numforecasts": 331, + "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", + "numforecasts": 279, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", - "numforecasts": 361, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 880, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1440,7 +2650,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 112, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", @@ -1449,21 +2659,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", @@ -1481,7 +2676,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", @@ -1491,115 +2686,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 112, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1633,18 +2731,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1733,6 +2842,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 345, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/", @@ -1740,17 +2864,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n", - "numforecasts": 241, + "numforecasts": 243, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -1760,29 +2884,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 592, + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 242, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1800,6 +2928,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", @@ -1816,29 +2985,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" } }, { @@ -1847,7 +3031,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -1856,6 +3040,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 165, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", @@ -1898,18 +3123,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1919,17 +3155,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", @@ -1954,18 +3190,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", - "numforecasts": 521, + "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1974,7 +3236,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 78, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", @@ -1984,29 +3246,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "numforecasts": 122, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2035,6 +3327,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", @@ -2062,44 +3380,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", + "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2117,21 +3420,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 336, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/", @@ -2148,59 +3436,156 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 345, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 321, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 339, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", + "numforecasts": 116, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", + "numforecasts": 113, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "numforecasts": 136, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z" } }, { @@ -2220,7 +3605,7 @@ } ], "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 385, + "numforecasts": 386, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", @@ -2230,29 +3615,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 50, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2271,44 +3686,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -2327,29 +3768,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", + "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "options": [], + "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n", + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" } }, { @@ -2358,7 +3803,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -2367,6 +3812,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", @@ -2382,6 +3853,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 375, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", @@ -2397,13 +3909,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -2429,7 +3956,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 156, + "numforecasts": 157, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -2439,18 +3966,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2459,7 +3997,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -2494,6 +4032,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", + "numforecasts": 241, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", @@ -2509,21 +4062,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -2551,29 +4089,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2603,29 +4130,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", + "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2643,32 +4170,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", - "numforecasts": 93, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", @@ -2684,6 +4185,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", @@ -2700,70 +4216,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", - "numforecasts": 104, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2781,6 +4245,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", @@ -2798,7 +4277,7 @@ } ], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 297, + "numforecasts": 304, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", @@ -2863,6 +4342,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -2889,6 +4383,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", @@ -2906,7 +4415,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -2915,21 +4424,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/", @@ -2945,32 +4439,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 124, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/", @@ -2987,18 +4455,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3007,7 +4490,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -3017,70 +4500,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 97, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 234, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3100,7 +4531,7 @@ } ], "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 467, + "numforecasts": 471, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", @@ -3109,6 +4540,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 331, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "World Population in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", + "numforecasts": 319, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", @@ -3166,29 +4664,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", + "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 319, + "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n", + "numforecasts": 183, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3207,44 +4705,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", + "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" } }, { @@ -3264,7 +4747,7 @@ } ], "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -3273,32 +4756,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/", @@ -3329,6 +4786,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", @@ -3346,7 +4818,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 413, + "numforecasts": 415, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -3412,29 +4884,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "numforecasts": 333, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3444,17 +4916,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 403, + "numforecasts": 406, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", @@ -3469,7 +4941,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -3478,47 +4950,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 174, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", @@ -3566,7 +4997,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", @@ -3575,13 +5006,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 185, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z", @@ -3590,21 +5047,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/", @@ -3621,59 +5063,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", + "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", - "numforecasts": 112, + "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3693,7 +5105,7 @@ } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1074, + "numforecasts": 1075, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -3703,18 +5115,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 179, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3734,7 +5161,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -3744,18 +5171,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", + "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3764,7 +5202,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -3799,32 +5237,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -3842,7 +5254,7 @@ } ], "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", @@ -3881,58 +5293,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 482, + "numforecasts": 484, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -3942,18 +5309,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/", + "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3971,36 +5353,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 122, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", @@ -4031,21 +5383,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", @@ -4072,13 +5409,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -4087,36 +5439,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", - "numforecasts": 169, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 128, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/", @@ -4133,55 +5455,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "options": [], + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 115, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" } }, { @@ -4214,28 +5499,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -4305,18 +5575,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4349,110 +5656,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "numforecasts": 178, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 184, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", @@ -4470,7 +5673,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -4479,32 +5682,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", @@ -4546,13 +5723,43 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 280, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6928/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2031\".\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", @@ -4561,21 +5768,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", @@ -4617,47 +5809,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -4711,59 +5862,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", + "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", - "numforecasts": 116, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4792,47 +5902,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", @@ -4874,21 +5943,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/", @@ -4946,29 +6000,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", + "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 325, + "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4997,21 +6051,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", @@ -5027,47 +6066,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", - "numforecasts": 88, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", @@ -5124,21 +6122,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", @@ -5169,32 +6152,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", @@ -5266,32 +6223,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 51, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", @@ -5309,7 +6240,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 143, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", @@ -5318,66 +6249,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", @@ -5395,7 +6266,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", - "numforecasts": 267, + "numforecasts": 268, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -5404,13 +6275,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-01T09:00:00Z", @@ -5420,70 +6306,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 277, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5503,7 +6337,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -5513,18 +6347,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5542,32 +6376,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 374, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -5609,32 +6417,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/", @@ -5650,47 +6432,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/", @@ -5732,47 +6473,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 184, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", @@ -5814,47 +6514,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 182, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", @@ -5872,7 +6531,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", @@ -5911,21 +6570,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/", @@ -5957,29 +6601,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-by-2025/", + "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "options": [], + "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", + "numforecasts": 403, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5988,7 +6621,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 395, + "numforecasts": 399, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -6014,7 +6647,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 226, + "numforecasts": 227, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", @@ -6054,93 +6687,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 125, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6159,18 +6717,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6190,7 +6748,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -6199,6 +6757,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", @@ -6240,6 +6813,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n", + "numforecasts": 52, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", @@ -6257,7 +6856,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 320, + "numforecasts": 323, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -6266,21 +6865,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 201, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/", @@ -6313,7 +6897,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", @@ -6322,21 +6906,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "World Population in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", - "numforecasts": 317, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/", @@ -6353,18 +6922,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6384,7 +6953,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 577, + "numforecasts": 580, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", @@ -6393,47 +6962,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 212, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 138, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", @@ -6465,33 +6993,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 278, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6535,6 +7059,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 100, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", @@ -6804,36 +7343,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", @@ -6861,29 +7370,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", + "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "options": [], + "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" } }, { @@ -6903,7 +7416,7 @@ } ], "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 598, + "numforecasts": 600, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -6929,7 +7442,7 @@ } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 286, + "numforecasts": 288, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -6938,6 +7451,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", @@ -6979,21 +7507,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n", - "numforecasts": 20, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/", @@ -7037,7 +7550,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", @@ -7046,21 +7559,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", - "numforecasts": 246, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/", @@ -7076,32 +7574,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", @@ -7158,21 +7630,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", - "numforecasts": 403, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", @@ -7255,28 +7712,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", - "numforecasts": 239, + "numforecasts": 251, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -7285,6 +7727,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/", @@ -7345,32 +7813,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -7439,44 +7881,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", + "numforecasts": 115, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 164, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7496,7 +7923,7 @@ } ], "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -7506,59 +7933,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/", + "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 239, + "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", + "numforecasts": 248, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" } }, { @@ -7587,21 +7988,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -7617,6 +8003,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", @@ -7643,21 +8044,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", @@ -7703,43 +8089,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 285, + "numforecasts": 290, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -7749,29 +8105,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", + "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 101, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7800,47 +8186,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/", @@ -7848,17 +8193,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", @@ -7883,18 +8228,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", + "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7914,7 +8259,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", @@ -7940,7 +8285,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1174, + "numforecasts": 1176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -7949,21 +8294,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/", @@ -7979,6 +8309,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", + "numforecasts": 218, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", @@ -7996,7 +8341,7 @@ } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2875, + "numforecasts": 2884, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", @@ -8021,81 +8366,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1298, + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 210, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 525, + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 126, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 284, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8115,7 +8423,7 @@ } ], "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -8124,6 +8432,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", + "numforecasts": 288, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/", @@ -8154,6 +8488,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "numforecasts": 283, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", @@ -8185,18 +8586,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8205,7 +8606,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -8214,21 +8615,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -8276,7 +8662,7 @@ } ], "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -8302,7 +8688,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -8352,6 +8738,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \nThe preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n...\nAstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\nAround the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\nThey soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\nWill AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 202, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T17:40:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 164, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -8368,18 +8795,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", + "numforecasts": 884, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8397,13 +8835,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1329, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z", @@ -8418,7 +8882,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -8428,81 +8892,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1377, + "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 546, + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 258, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8535,6 +8962,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 188, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", @@ -8582,7 +9035,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -8591,6 +9044,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2150-01-19T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", @@ -8608,7 +9087,7 @@ } ], "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", @@ -8649,7 +9128,7 @@ } ], "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, + "numforecasts": 195, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -8699,6 +9178,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", @@ -8714,6 +9208,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/", @@ -8731,7 +9240,7 @@ } ], "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -8747,17 +9256,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 296, + "numforecasts": 311, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -8766,6 +9275,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 164, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", @@ -8807,6 +9331,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", @@ -8839,7 +9378,7 @@ } ], "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, + "numforecasts": 189, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", @@ -8848,6 +9387,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", @@ -8863,21 +9417,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", @@ -8919,6 +9458,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/", @@ -8949,13 +9503,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8964,6 +9533,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", @@ -8996,7 +9591,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -9020,6 +9615,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-28T19:09:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/", @@ -9046,21 +9656,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/", @@ -9103,29 +9698,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "numforecasts": 880, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 573, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -9145,7 +9740,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -9180,6 +9775,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 226, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", @@ -9206,32 +9827,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 225, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/", @@ -9342,7 +9937,7 @@ } ], "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z", @@ -9381,32 +9976,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "numforecasts": 305, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", @@ -9424,7 +9993,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", - "numforecasts": 259, + "numforecasts": 260, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -9433,6 +10002,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", + "numforecasts": 306, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", @@ -9485,13 +10080,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1382, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 119, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -9500,13 +10121,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", + "numforecasts": 497, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9532,7 +10168,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 359, + "numforecasts": 361, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -9547,7 +10183,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -9598,18 +10234,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-06T18:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -9618,7 +10254,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9633,7 +10269,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9689,7 +10325,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9756,7 +10392,7 @@ } ], "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", @@ -9765,6 +10401,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -9795,32 +10446,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-11-24T23:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 730, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", @@ -9836,6 +10461,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/", @@ -9851,32 +10491,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\nFormer White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\nThe charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\nThe indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\nThe official charges are as follows:\n1-- \nBRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n2-- \nThose representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\nWill Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?\n---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). \n---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 329, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/", @@ -9907,6 +10521,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\nFormer White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\nThe charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\nThe indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\nThe official charges are as follows:\n1-- \nBRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n2-- \nThose representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\nWill Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?\n---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). \n---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. \n", + "numforecasts": 330, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -9937,32 +10577,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/", @@ -9994,18 +10608,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 599, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -10014,7 +10665,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -10085,7 +10736,7 @@ } ], "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", @@ -10219,7 +10870,7 @@ } ], "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", @@ -10260,7 +10911,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", @@ -10329,6 +10980,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/", @@ -10344,21 +11010,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/", @@ -10380,7 +11031,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -10445,32 +11096,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 93, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", @@ -10488,7 +11113,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 190, + "numforecasts": 192, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", @@ -10497,6 +11122,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -10514,7 +11165,7 @@ } ], "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "numforecasts": 256, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -10523,32 +11174,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 548, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -10566,7 +11191,7 @@ } ], "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -10618,7 +11243,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -10694,21 +11319,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", @@ -10782,7 +11392,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 218, + "numforecasts": 219, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", @@ -10812,7 +11422,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", @@ -10950,7 +11560,7 @@ } ], "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -11006,7 +11616,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -11047,7 +11657,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -11088,7 +11698,7 @@ } ], "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 505, + "numforecasts": 506, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", @@ -11114,7 +11724,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -11130,17 +11740,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", @@ -11185,7 +11795,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -11211,7 +11821,7 @@ } ], "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 207, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -11237,7 +11847,7 @@ } ], "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -11263,7 +11873,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -11293,7 +11903,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -11323,7 +11933,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-13T22:00:00Z", @@ -11354,17 +11964,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -11461,7 +12071,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1265, + "numforecasts": 1268, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", @@ -11565,7 +12175,7 @@ } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 272, + "numforecasts": 273, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -11580,7 +12190,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", @@ -11604,32 +12214,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "numforecasts": 157, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", @@ -11647,7 +12231,7 @@ } ], "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 324, + "numforecasts": 325, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", @@ -11656,6 +12240,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", + "numforecasts": 158, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/", @@ -11682,21 +12292,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", @@ -11714,7 +12309,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 198, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -11723,6 +12318,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", @@ -11755,7 +12365,7 @@ } ], "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 212, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -11890,7 +12500,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -11959,21 +12569,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 253, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", @@ -12019,6 +12614,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", @@ -12066,7 +12676,7 @@ } ], "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", @@ -12092,7 +12702,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -12108,17 +12718,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -12174,7 +12784,7 @@ } ], "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -12299,6 +12909,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", @@ -12316,7 +12941,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "numforecasts": 434, + "numforecasts": 435, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", @@ -12325,21 +12950,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", @@ -12422,28 +13032,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -12452,6 +13047,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", @@ -12493,21 +13103,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/", @@ -12538,6 +13133,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/", @@ -12634,7 +13244,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 442, + "numforecasts": 444, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -12643,58 +13253,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 289, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/", @@ -12710,28 +13268,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -12791,7 +13334,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -12817,7 +13360,7 @@ } ], "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -12895,7 +13438,7 @@ } ], "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 276, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -12930,6 +13473,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", + "numforecasts": 287, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -12960,32 +13529,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:16:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "numforecasts": 286, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/", @@ -13068,21 +13611,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/", @@ -13113,6 +13641,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", + "numforecasts": 169, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -13130,7 +13673,7 @@ } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -13139,21 +13682,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", - "numforecasts": 169, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/", @@ -13242,7 +13770,7 @@ } ], "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -13266,21 +13794,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/", @@ -13296,6 +13809,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-29T21:53:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", + "numforecasts": 179, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/", @@ -13328,7 +13856,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -13418,7 +13946,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -13509,6 +14037,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/", @@ -13526,7 +14069,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -13535,21 +14078,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/", @@ -13593,7 +14121,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", @@ -13634,7 +14162,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z", @@ -13694,7 +14222,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 309, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -13709,7 +14237,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z", @@ -13765,7 +14293,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 442, + "numforecasts": 443, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -13791,7 +14319,7 @@ } ], "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 126, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -13858,7 +14386,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 538, + "numforecasts": 539, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -13927,28 +14455,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z", @@ -13957,6 +14470,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/", @@ -13989,7 +14517,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -14015,7 +14543,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -14030,7 +14558,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -14056,7 +14584,7 @@ } ], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n", - "numforecasts": 277, + "numforecasts": 278, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -14112,7 +14640,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 464, + "numforecasts": 489, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", @@ -14153,7 +14681,7 @@ } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 589, + "numforecasts": 591, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -14362,7 +14890,7 @@ } ], "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -14457,6 +14985,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", + "numforecasts": 145, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/", @@ -14487,32 +15041,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", - "numforecasts": 144, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/", @@ -14545,7 +15073,7 @@ } ], "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 430, + "numforecasts": 431, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -14623,7 +15151,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z", @@ -14647,6 +15175,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 166, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:36:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/", @@ -14664,7 +15207,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", @@ -14673,21 +15216,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:36:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/", @@ -14720,7 +15248,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -14791,7 +15319,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -14800,21 +15328,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 695, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", @@ -14830,6 +15343,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 707, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", @@ -14881,7 +15409,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 257, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -14946,32 +15474,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/", @@ -15019,7 +15521,7 @@ } ], "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -15060,7 +15562,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -15095,32 +15597,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/", @@ -15136,21 +15612,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/", @@ -15168,7 +15629,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -15177,6 +15638,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/", @@ -15299,7 +15775,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -15340,7 +15816,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n", - "numforecasts": 191, + "numforecasts": 192, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -15366,7 +15842,7 @@ } ], "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", @@ -15530,7 +16006,7 @@ } ], "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -15597,7 +16073,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -15623,7 +16099,7 @@ } ], "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -15632,6 +16108,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", @@ -15649,7 +16140,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", @@ -15658,21 +16149,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/", @@ -15690,7 +16166,7 @@ } ], "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n", - "numforecasts": 476, + "numforecasts": 478, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -15699,32 +16175,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/", @@ -15742,7 +16192,7 @@ } ], "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 301, + "numforecasts": 302, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", @@ -15854,7 +16304,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 370, + "numforecasts": 373, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -15908,21 +16358,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/", @@ -15940,7 +16375,7 @@ } ], "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z", @@ -15950,29 +16385,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/", + "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 282, + "options": [], + "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -15992,7 +16416,7 @@ } ], "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -16001,6 +16425,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 283, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/", @@ -16033,7 +16483,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -16059,7 +16509,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 224, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", @@ -16195,32 +16645,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n", - "numforecasts": 178, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/", @@ -16253,7 +16677,7 @@ } ], "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 260, + "numforecasts": 261, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -16376,7 +16800,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 239, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -16474,17 +16898,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16596,7 +17020,7 @@ } ], "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", @@ -16622,7 +17046,7 @@ } ], "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 655, + "numforecasts": 657, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", @@ -16637,7 +17061,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16687,6 +17111,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/", @@ -16704,7 +17143,7 @@ } ], "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -16713,21 +17152,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 174, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/", @@ -16932,7 +17356,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z", @@ -16973,7 +17397,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -17085,7 +17509,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -17141,7 +17565,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", @@ -17182,7 +17606,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -17206,6 +17630,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 200, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", @@ -17258,32 +17708,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 199, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/", @@ -17305,7 +17729,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -17346,7 +17770,7 @@ } ], "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -17387,7 +17811,7 @@ } ], "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -17396,21 +17820,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", @@ -17428,7 +17837,7 @@ } ], "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 705, + "numforecasts": 706, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -17437,6 +17846,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/", @@ -17609,32 +18033,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/", @@ -17779,7 +18177,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-20T07:00:00Z", @@ -17805,7 +18203,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 164, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", @@ -17820,7 +18218,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -18081,7 +18479,7 @@ } ], "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 175, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -18096,7 +18494,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z", @@ -18215,7 +18613,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z", @@ -18267,7 +18665,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n", - "numforecasts": 261, + "numforecasts": 262, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -18394,7 +18792,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -18629,7 +19027,7 @@ } ], "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -18726,7 +19124,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", @@ -18752,7 +19150,7 @@ } ], "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -18980,7 +19378,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -19010,7 +19408,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -19081,7 +19479,7 @@ } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 263, + "numforecasts": 264, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -19230,7 +19628,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -19245,7 +19643,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \">\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -19286,7 +19684,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -19357,7 +19755,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", @@ -19366,32 +19764,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/", @@ -19418,6 +19790,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 137, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/", @@ -19577,7 +19975,7 @@ } ], "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -19648,7 +20046,7 @@ } ], "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 465, + "numforecasts": 466, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", @@ -19700,7 +20098,7 @@ } ], "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n", - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -19715,7 +20113,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n", - "numforecasts": 220, + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -19730,7 +20128,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -19739,21 +20137,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-04-02T22:14:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/", @@ -19786,7 +20169,7 @@ } ], "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", @@ -19795,32 +20178,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/", @@ -19862,6 +20219,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n", + "numforecasts": 51, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/", @@ -19888,21 +20260,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -19989,32 +20346,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:21:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/", @@ -20145,17 +20476,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", @@ -20211,7 +20542,7 @@ } ], "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -20252,7 +20583,7 @@ } ], "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 276, + "numforecasts": 278, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", @@ -20278,7 +20609,7 @@ } ], "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", @@ -20350,17 +20681,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 112, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z", @@ -20427,7 +20758,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -20468,7 +20799,7 @@ } ], "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -20535,7 +20866,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "numforecasts": 256, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -20606,7 +20937,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -20647,7 +20978,7 @@ } ], "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 243, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", @@ -20673,7 +21004,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", - "numforecasts": 350, + "numforecasts": 351, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -20738,32 +21069,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/", @@ -20781,7 +21086,7 @@ } ], "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 180, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -20879,17 +21184,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).\nWill Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", @@ -21068,7 +21373,7 @@ } ], "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -21135,7 +21440,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? \nPositive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.\n", - "numforecasts": 302, + "numforecasts": 303, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", @@ -21191,7 +21496,7 @@ } ], "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -21252,17 +21557,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -21318,7 +21623,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -21527,7 +21832,7 @@ } ], "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -21646,7 +21951,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -21726,32 +22031,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "numforecasts": 87, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/", @@ -21782,6 +22061,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", @@ -21799,7 +22104,7 @@ } ], "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "numforecasts": 611, + "numforecasts": 612, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -21825,7 +22130,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "numforecasts": 374, + "numforecasts": 375, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -22056,7 +22361,7 @@ } ], "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -22153,7 +22458,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -22179,7 +22484,7 @@ } ], "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", @@ -22266,17 +22571,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -22291,7 +22596,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -22317,7 +22622,7 @@ } ], "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", @@ -22343,7 +22648,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z", @@ -22384,7 +22689,7 @@ } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -22440,7 +22745,7 @@ } ], "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -22492,7 +22797,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -22518,7 +22823,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 190, + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -22671,7 +22976,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -22721,6 +23026,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", + "numforecasts": 176, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/", @@ -22747,21 +23067,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 175, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/", @@ -22794,7 +23099,7 @@ } ], "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n", - "numforecasts": 225, + "numforecasts": 227, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z", @@ -22820,7 +23125,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -22943,7 +23248,7 @@ } ], "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "numforecasts": 223, + "numforecasts": 224, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -22969,7 +23274,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5111, + "numforecasts": 5112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -23092,7 +23397,7 @@ } ], "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -23133,7 +23438,7 @@ } ], "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", @@ -23209,6 +23514,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 98, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/", @@ -23226,7 +23546,7 @@ } ], "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 270, + "numforecasts": 271, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -23235,21 +23555,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/", @@ -23267,7 +23572,7 @@ } ], "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", - "numforecasts": 465, + "numforecasts": 467, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -23633,7 +23938,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", @@ -23767,7 +24072,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n", - "numforecasts": 353, + "numforecasts": 356, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -23808,7 +24113,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -23849,7 +24154,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n", - "numforecasts": 180, + "numforecasts": 181, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z", @@ -23998,7 +24303,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -24024,7 +24329,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 281, + "numforecasts": 282, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -24065,7 +24370,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", @@ -24091,7 +24396,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z", @@ -24244,7 +24549,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "numforecasts": 293, + "numforecasts": 295, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", @@ -24326,7 +24631,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z", @@ -24516,7 +24821,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -24583,7 +24888,7 @@ } ], "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -24635,7 +24940,7 @@ } ], "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n", - "numforecasts": 210, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -24717,7 +25022,7 @@ } ], "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n", - "numforecasts": 437, + "numforecasts": 438, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -24784,7 +25089,7 @@ } ], "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n", - "numforecasts": 404, + "numforecasts": 405, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", @@ -24808,32 +25113,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 429, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", @@ -24851,7 +25130,7 @@ } ], "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -24860,6 +25139,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 430, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/", @@ -25015,7 +25320,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 246, + "numforecasts": 247, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -25254,7 +25559,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 199, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", @@ -25299,7 +25604,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "numforecasts": 259, + "numforecasts": 262, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -25444,7 +25749,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 84, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -25485,7 +25790,7 @@ } ], "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", - "numforecasts": 206, + "numforecasts": 207, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -25537,7 +25842,7 @@ } ], "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -25623,7 +25928,7 @@ } ], "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z", @@ -25649,7 +25954,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", @@ -25776,7 +26081,7 @@ } ], "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", - "numforecasts": 574, + "numforecasts": 575, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z", @@ -25817,7 +26122,7 @@ } ], "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "numforecasts": 474, + "numforecasts": 477, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -25897,32 +26202,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/", @@ -26009,32 +26288,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/", @@ -26078,7 +26331,7 @@ } ], "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z", @@ -26087,21 +26340,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/", @@ -26186,7 +26424,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 183, + "numforecasts": 184, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -26242,7 +26480,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n", - "numforecasts": 127, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -26462,7 +26700,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -26497,32 +26735,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/", @@ -26549,21 +26761,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/", @@ -26581,7 +26778,7 @@ } ], "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", @@ -26590,6 +26787,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -26622,7 +26834,7 @@ } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1382, + "numforecasts": 1383, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -26745,7 +26957,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z", @@ -26760,7 +26972,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 412, + "numforecasts": 413, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -26831,7 +27043,7 @@ } ], "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", @@ -26903,17 +27115,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 527, + "numforecasts": 529, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -27025,7 +27237,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 262, + "numforecasts": 263, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", @@ -27172,32 +27384,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \nThe preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n...\nAstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\nAround the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\nThey soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\nWill AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 202, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T17:40:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/", @@ -27541,32 +27727,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", - "numforecasts": 297, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/", @@ -27629,7 +27789,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -27715,7 +27875,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 225, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -27780,6 +27940,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", + "numforecasts": 163, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/", @@ -27797,7 +27972,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -27806,21 +27981,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 163, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", @@ -28041,32 +28201,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/", @@ -28170,7 +28304,7 @@ } ], "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n", - "numforecasts": 262, + "numforecasts": 263, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z", @@ -28241,7 +28375,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -28256,7 +28390,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -28301,7 +28435,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 120, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.csv b/data/metaforecasts.csv index 7734aba..642e5ce 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.csv +++ b/data/metaforecasts.csv @@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ "How vivid is your taste imagination?",,"Yes, No" "How vivid is your smell imagination?",,"Yes, No" "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",,"Yes, No" -"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",,"Yes, No" "How frequently do you think in words?",,"Yes, No" +"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",,"Yes, No" "Do you have an internal monologue?",,"Yes, No" "How good is your memory?",,"Yes, No" "How vivid is your touch imagination?",,"Yes, No" @@ -94,55 +94,55 @@ "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",,"Yes, No" "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" "The Pope will be assassinated.",,"Yes, No" -"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",,"Yes, No" -"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",,"Yes, No" +"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",,"Yes, No" "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",,"Yes, No" "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" -"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",,"Yes, No" -"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",,"Yes, No" +"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",,"Yes, No" "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",,"Yes, No" +"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",,"Yes, No" "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",,"Yes, No" "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No" "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",,"Yes, No" "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",,"Yes, No" "Trump wins Nobel",,"Yes, No" -"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",,"Yes, No" "...be an environmental disaster.",,"Yes, No" "California will secede from the United States before 2021",,"Yes, No" +"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",,"Yes, No" "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" -"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",,"Yes, No" -"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",,"Yes, No" """I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",,"Yes, No" +"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",,"Yes, No" "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",,"Yes, No" "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No" -"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",,"Yes, No" -"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No" -"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No" "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",,"Yes, No" +"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",,"Yes, No" "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",,"Yes, No" "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",,"Yes, No" -"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No" +"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No" +"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No" "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",,"Yes, No" -"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",,"Yes, No" -"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",,"Yes, No" "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",,"Yes, No" -"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",,"Yes, No" -"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No" "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No" +"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",,"Yes, No" +"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",,"Yes, No" +"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",,"Yes, No" +"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No" +"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No" "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No" -"Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No" -"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",,"Yes, No" +"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",,"Yes, No" "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",,"Yes, No" "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",,"Yes, No" -"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",,"Yes, No" "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",,"Yes, No" -"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",,"Yes, No" "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",,"Yes, No" -"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",,"Yes, No" -"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",,"Yes, No" +"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",,"Yes, No" +"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",,"Yes, No" +"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",,"Yes, No" "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No" +"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",,"Yes, No" +"Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No" "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",,"Yes, No" "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",,"Yes, No" @@ -151,257 +151,257 @@ "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",,"Yes, No" "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",,"Yes, No" "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",,"Yes, No" +"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No" "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",,"Yes, No" "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",,"Yes, No" -"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No" "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No" "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No" "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",,"Yes, No" "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",,"Yes, No" "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",,"Yes, No" "The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",,"Yes, No" -"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",,"Yes, No" "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No" -"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",,"Yes, No" -"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No" "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",,"Yes, No" +"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",,"Yes, No" "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No" +"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No" +"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",,"Yes, No" "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",,"Yes, No" "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",,"Yes, No" "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",,"Yes, No" -"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No" -"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No" -"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",,"Yes, No" "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No" +"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No" +"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",,"Yes, No" "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No" "aliens invade earth in 2023",,"Yes, No" -"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",,"Yes, No" -"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No" -"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",,"Yes, No" "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",,"Yes, No" +"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",,"Yes, No" +"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",,"Yes, No" +"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No" "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",,"Yes, No" -"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No" -"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",,"Yes, No" -"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No" -"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No" -"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" -"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",,"Yes, No" -"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",,"Yes, No" "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",,"Yes, No" -"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No" +"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" +"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No" +"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No" +"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",,"Yes, No" "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No" "US presidents term limits abolished",,"Yes, No" +"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No" +"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",,"Yes, No" +"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",,"Yes, No" +"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No" +"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",,"Yes, No" +"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No" "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",,"Yes, No" -"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",,"Yes, No" "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",,"Yes, No" -"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No" +"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No" +"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",,"Yes, No" "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",,"Yes, No" -"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No" +"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No" +"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",,"Yes, No" +"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No" "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",,"Yes, No" "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",,"Yes, No" -"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No" -"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No" -"C still widely in use in the 2020s",,"Yes, No" -"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No" -"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",,"Yes, No" +"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No" +"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No" "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",,"Yes, No" -"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No" "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No" -"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",,"Yes, No" +"C still widely in use in the 2020s",,"Yes, No" "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No" -"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",,"Yes, No" -"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No" -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No" -"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",,"Yes, No" "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No" +"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No" "The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",,"Yes, No" +"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",,"Yes, No" +"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No" +"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No" +"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No" +"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No" +"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No" +"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No" "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ",,"Yes, No" -"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",,"Yes, No" -"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No" -"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" -"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No" -"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No" "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",,"Yes, No" -"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No" -"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No" -"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No" +"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",,"Yes, No" +"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No" """Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No" -"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No" -"Trump dies of COVID-19",,"Yes, No" +"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",,"Yes, No" "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",,"Yes, No" -"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No" -"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",,"Yes, No" "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",,"Yes, No" "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" -"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" -"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No" -"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" -"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",,"Yes, No" "ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No" -"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No" -"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No" -"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No" -"10 million",,"Yes, No" -"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No" -"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No" -"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No" -"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No" -"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No" -"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No" -"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",,"Yes, No" -"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No" -"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",,"Yes, No" -"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No" "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",,"Yes, No" +"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No" +"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No" +"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No" +"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No" +"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No" +"Trump dies of COVID-19",,"Yes, No" +"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",,"Yes, No" +"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",,"Yes, No" "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No" -"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No" -"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No" -"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No" -"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No" -"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No" +"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No" +"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No" +"10 million",,"Yes, No" +"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No" +"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No" +"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No" +"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",,"Yes, No" +"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No" +"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",,"Yes, No" +"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No" +"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No" "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",,"Yes, No" -"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No" -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No" -"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No" +"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No" "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No" +"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No" +"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No" +"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No" +"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No" +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No" +"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No" +"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No" +"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No" +"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No" +"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No" "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",,"Yes, No" -"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No" -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No" -"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No" -"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No" -"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No" -"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No" -"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No" -"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No" -"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No" -"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No" -"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No" "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No" +"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No" +"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No" +"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No" +"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No" "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",,"Yes, No" "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",,"Yes, No" +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No" +"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No" "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",,"Yes, No" +"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No" "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No" "100 million",,"Yes, No" -"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No" -"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No" -"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No" -"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No" -"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No" -"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",,"Yes, No" -"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No" "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",,"Yes, No" -"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No" +"Trump wins the 2020 election.",,"Yes, No" "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No" "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No" -"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No" -"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No" -"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No" -"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No" -"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No" -"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No" -"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No" -"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",,"Yes, No" -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",,"Yes, No" -"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No" -"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No" -"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No" -"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",,"Yes, No" +"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",,"Yes, No" +"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No" +"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No" +"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No" +"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No" +"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No" +"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No" +"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No" +"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No" +"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No" """within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",,"Yes, No" +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No" +"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No" +"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No" +"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",,"Yes, No" +"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No" +"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",,"Yes, No" +"50 million",,"Yes, No" +"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",,"Yes, No" "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",,"Yes, No" "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",,"Yes, No" +"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No" +"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No" +"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No" +"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" +"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No" +"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No" +"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No" +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",,"Yes, No" +"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No" +"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",,"Yes, No" +"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No" +"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",,"Yes, No" +"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No" +"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No" +"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No" +"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" +"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",,"Yes, No" +"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No" +"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No" "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",,"Yes, No" "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No" -"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",,"Yes, No" -"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No" -"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No" -"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No" -"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "Trump will run for president in 2024",,"Yes, No" -"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No" -"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",,"Yes, No" -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No" -"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No" -"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No" -"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No" -"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No" -"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" -"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No" -"Trump wins the 2020 election.",,"Yes, No" -"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No" -"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No" -"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",,"Yes, No" -"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No" -"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" -"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No" -"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No" -"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No" -"50 million",,"Yes, No" -"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",,"Yes, No" -"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No" "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No" -"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",,"Yes, No" -"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",,"Yes, No" -"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",,"Yes, No" -"“China will break apart by 2030”",,"Yes, No" -"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",,"Yes, No" -"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",,"Yes, No" -"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",,"Yes, No" -"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. - -By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",,"Yes, No" -"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",,"Yes, No" -"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",,"Yes, No" -"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",,"Yes, No" -"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",,"Yes, No" -"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",,"Yes, No" -"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",,"Yes, No" +"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",,"Yes, No" +"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",,"Yes, No" +"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",,"Yes, No" "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes, No" -"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" -"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",,"Yes, No" -"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",,"Yes, No" +"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",,"Yes, No" +"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",,"Yes, No" "EU to dissolve by 2040.",,"Yes, No" +"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",,"Yes, No" +"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",,"Yes, No" +"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No" "We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",,"Yes, No" "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",,"Yes, No" +""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",,"Yes, No" +"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",,"Yes, No" "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",,"Yes, No" "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",,"Yes, No" -"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",,"Yes, No" -"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",,"Yes, No" -"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",,"Yes, No" -"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",,"Yes, No" -"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",,"Yes, No" +"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",,"Yes, No" +"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",,"Yes, No" +"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",,"Yes, No" +"homosexuality criminalized in the US",,"Yes, No" +"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. + +By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",,"Yes, No" +"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",,"Yes, No" +"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",,"Yes, No" +"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",,"Yes, No" +"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" +"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",,"Yes, No" "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",,"Yes, No" "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",,"Yes, No" +"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",,"Yes, No" "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",,"Yes, No" -"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No" -"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",,"Yes, No" +"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",,"Yes, No" +"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",,"Yes, No" "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",,"Yes, No" -"WWIII starts before 2030.",,"Yes, No" -"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",,"Yes, No" "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",,"Yes, No" "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",,"Yes, No" +"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",,"Yes, No" "At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",,"Yes, No" "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",,"Yes, No" +"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No" "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",,"Yes, No" +"WWIII starts before 2030.",,"Yes, No" "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",,"Yes, No" -""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",,"Yes, No" -"homosexuality criminalized in the US",,"Yes, No" -"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",,"Yes, No" -"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",,"Yes, No" +"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",,"Yes, No" +"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",,"Yes, No" +"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",,"Yes, No" +"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",,"Yes, No" +"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",,"Yes, No" +"“China will break apart by 2030”",,"Yes, No" +"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",,"Yes, No" +"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",,"Yes, No" "Estimates for Security (Symbol)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","" "Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","" "Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","" @@ -908,60 +908,59 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes "Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","" "Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","" "Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","" -"In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","73.68% (70 out of 95) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.33% (21 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","10.47% (9 out of 86) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","37.50% (3 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","27.27% (3 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","80.00% (8 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","42.86% (3 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","73.96% (71 out of 96) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","51.92% (27 out of 52) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","10.34% (9 out of 87) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","28.00% (14 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.00% (18 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","30.77% (4 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","81.82% (9 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","50.00% (4 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","27.78% (5 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","35.29% (6 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 22) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","3.57% (1 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.","Yes, No" "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","","" "% global rate of ""$1.90 a day"" poverty in 2030","","" "A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15","","Yes, No" @@ -1217,17 +1216,13 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes "80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","Yes, No" "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","Yes, No" "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%","Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ","Yes, No" +"Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?","After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.","Yes, to less than $10.00, Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00, Yes, to $15.00 or more, No" "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?","Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from EV-volumes.com whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV & PHEV share for 2020 was 4.2%.","Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%" -"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","Less than 21 million barrels per day, Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day, Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 30 million barrels per day" -"Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory ""carbon pricing mechanism"" become law before 1 January 2023?","President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a ""carbon pricing mechanism"" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System, the California Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.","Yes, No" -"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",,"Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" +"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021" -"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" -"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?",,"10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" -"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","The Games will begin, The Games will be postponed again by more than a day, The Games will be cancelled" +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ","Less than 23%, Between 23% and 27%, inclusive, More than 27%" -"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.","Lower by more than 8%, Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive , Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% , Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4%" +"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.","Lower by more than 8%, Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive , Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% , Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4%" "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","At or below 2020 levels, Higher by between 0% and 100%, Higher by more than 100%" "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" @@ -1236,6 +1231,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo ","Yes, No" "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?","After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +NOTE 5 April 2021:  Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count. ","Yes, No" "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?","After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-a-new-kind-of-museum), [The Local (Germany)](https://www.thelocal.de/20201216/rebuilt-prussian-palace-scarred-by-history-opens-in-berlin/), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210323-germany-extends-covid-19-restrictions-into-april-including-strict-easter-lockdown), [Humboldt Forum](https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/)). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). @@ -1352,6 +1348,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo ","Yes, No" "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +NOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count. ","Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). @@ -1391,7 +1388,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4b28272a39222d22282a3f222425380b2c24242f213e2f2c262e253f6528242674383e29212e283f761a3e2e383f2224256e797b08272a39222d22282a3f222425). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0d6e616c7f646b646e6c796462637e4d6a6262696778696a60686379236e6260327e786f67686e79305c78687e79646263283f3d4e616c7f646b646e6c79646263). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","Yes, No" "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). @@ -1477,9 +1474,6 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Yes, No" -"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Yes, No" @@ -1599,9 +1593,6 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" -"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","Yes, No" "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Yes, No" @@ -1757,7 +1748,7 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol "2024 US Presidential Election: Winning Party",,"Democrats, Republicans, Independent" "2024 US Presidential Election: Republican Ticket (Nominee + VP)",,"Hawley + Haley, Donald Trump + Pence, Donald Trump + Ivanka Trump, Carlson + Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump + Hawley, Hawley + Donald Trump Jr, Donald Trump Jr + Hawley, Donald Trump + Taylor Greene, Donald Trump + DeSantis, Donald Trump + Noem, DeSantis + Noem" "Next German Chancellor: To Replace Merkel As Chancellor",,"Markus Söder, Olaf Scholz, Annalena Baerbock, Alice Weidel, Jens Spahn, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck" -"Next French Presidential Election: To Win",,"Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Nicolas Sarkozy, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Marion Marechal, Ségolène Royal, Valerie Pecresse, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Anne Hidalgo, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Benoit Hamon" +"Next French Presidential Election: To Win",,"Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Nicolas Sarkozy, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Marion Marechal, Ségolène Royal, Valerie Pecresse, Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Anne Hidalgo, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Benoit Hamon" "2022 Texas Gubernatorial Election: To Win",,"Beto O'Rourke, Greg Abbott, Matthew McConaughey, Julian Castro" "2021 German Federal Election: Most Seats",,"AfD, CDU + CSU, Greens, SPD" "2021 NYC Mayoral Election: Election Winner - Void if no 2021 election",,"Andrew Yang, Curtis Silwa, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire, Scott Stringer, Shaun Donovan, Donald Trump, Andrew Giuliani" @@ -1766,8 +1757,7 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol "Next Labour Party Leader: When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later" "Next UK Prime Minister: Next PM (Acting PM or similar will not count)",,"Eddie Hughes, Rishi Sunak, Andy Burnham, Sadiq Khan, Grant Shapps, Laurence Fox, Graham Brady, Neil O'Brien, Theresa May, Nadhim Zahawi, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Corbyn, Jeremy Hunt, Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage, Penny Mordaunt, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Rory Stewart, Sajid Javid, Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Johnny Mercer, Ruth Davidson, Liz Truss, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Priti Patel, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox, John McDonnell, Yvette Cooper, Lisa Nandy, Steve Baker, Tobia Ellwood, Steve Barclay, Damian Hinds, David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Kemi Badenoch, Andrea Jenkyns, Bim Afolami, Helen Whately, Kit Malthouse, Mark Harper, Esther McVey, Caroline Lucas, Piers Morgan, David Cameron, Hilary Benn, Liz Saville Roberts, Ed Davey, Laura Pidcock, David Miliband, Harriet Harman, Dominic Cummings, Ed Miiliband, Jess Phillips, Bridget Phillipson" "West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons), Wajid Ali (Reform)" -"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP), Greens" -"Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share",,"Under 5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, Over 20%" +"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP), Greens, Adam Gaines (Ind)" "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP" "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner",,"Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (London Real), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn (Let London Live), Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind), Valerie Brown (Burning Pink), Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU), Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare), Steve Kelleher(SDP), Niko Omilana (Ind)" "London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share",,"Under 35%, 35-40%, 40-45%, 45-50%, Over 50%" @@ -1778,7 +1768,8 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol "London Mayoral Election: Which of these will get the most votes?",,"Piers Corbyn, Count Binface, Peter Gammons, Brian Rose, Laurence Fox, David Kurten" "London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet: Gammons v Omilana",,"Peter Gammons (UKIP), Niko Omilana (Ind)" "London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet: Bailey v Rose",,"Brian Rose, Shaun Bailey" -"London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet: Gammons v Fox",,"Peter Gammons (IUKIP), Laurence Fox (Reclaim)" +"London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet: Gammons v Fox",,"Peter Gammons (UKIP), Laurence Fox (Reclaim)" +"London Mayoral Election: Shaun Bailey 1st Round Vote Share",,"Under 20%, 20-25%, 25-30%, 30-35%, 35-40%, Over 40%" "Boris Johnson: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)",,"2021, 2022, 2023 or later" "Boris Johnson: Leader at Next General Election?",,"To be Tory leader at next general election, NOT to be Tory leader at next general election" "2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Most Seats",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru" @@ -1819,6 +1810,15 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol "Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060",,"Yes, No" "Boris Johnson to be replaced as PM before end 2022",,"Yes, No" "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040",,"Yes, No" +"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?","The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC. These electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions: --- @@ -1838,20 +1838,25 @@ If the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous --- If the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state. ","" -"When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?","As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)). -The [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html): -The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. -Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? -Resolution details: ----This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. ----This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. ----In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. ----If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. -","" -"How much global warming by 2100?","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. -[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. -Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? -Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. +"Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?","The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. +Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex? +This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex. +","Yes, No" +"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. +The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. +This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: +---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. +---There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. +---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. +The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. +The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. +","Yes, No" +"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. +When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%? +This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: +Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. +Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. +[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. ","" "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) @@ -1865,6 +1870,22 @@ If the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the q If the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. ","" +"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering) +Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing. +For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200. +1-- +At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health. +2-- +Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope. +3-- +There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, ""a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems."" +4-- +A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering. +5-- +A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering. +6-- +Brian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level. +","Yes, No" "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/). The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what latitude will it start in? @@ -1877,36 +1898,75 @@ Consensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, sp Conflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began. This question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/) ","" -"When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?","At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China. -The chosen metrics are, ---- -[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). ---- -[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). ---- -[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously. -This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China. -","" -"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party. -Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold). -Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? ---- -If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well. ---- -If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question. +"Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?","The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote. +The rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017. +Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? +This question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster. ","Yes, No" -"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. -Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. -Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? -This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press. +"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. +In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. +In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. +This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) +Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. +Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. +Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. +","Yes, No" +"Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf): +P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand. +According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030. +In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). +Will renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? +Resolution +This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data. +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. +","Yes, No" +"Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?","Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock? +Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021. +Local elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021. +This question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced. +Resolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. +","Yes, No" +"Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?","Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html). +Gaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936). +Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? +This question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively. +","Yes, No" +"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. +[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? +This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. +","Yes, No" +"Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?","There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) +[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate. +Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? +A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs. +","Yes, No" +"Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the ""Conservatives"" or ""Tories"". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. +Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? +This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party. +Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. +Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/). +If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London. +If the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party. +In case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT: +1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, +2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and +3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. +If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. +The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. +[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. +This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? +This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. +This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. ","Yes, No" -"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. -In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). -However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). -When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? -This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. -ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. -","" "When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets. Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. New Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. @@ -1918,26 +1978,106 @@ And there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket i When will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight? This question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used. ","" -"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). -Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +"Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida. +The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour. +Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate. +The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling ""surface"". +""I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,"" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. +""It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!"" she told BBC News. +Resolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan. ","Yes, No" -"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. -Will the Open Courts Act become law? -This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively. +"Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) +Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year. +[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C. +[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030: +--- +Peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early; +--- +Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and +--- +Increasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level. +Currently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals. +Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? +This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030. +","Yes, No" +"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). +Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). +This question asks: +Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? +This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: +---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. +And: +---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. +The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: +There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. +The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. ","Yes, No" "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT? See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/) ","" -"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" +"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): +A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. +He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). +Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? +---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. +---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. +---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. +ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively +","Yes, No" +"Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. +[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html) +In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) +However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member. +This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period? +This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025. +If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. +In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: +1-- +White wins +2-- +Black wins +3-- +Forced draw +If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? +For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if +--- +it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides +--- +it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw +Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. +For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question +This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. +","Yes, No" +"Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?","Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic. +In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024. +Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? +Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention. +","Yes, No" +"Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?","Context +======= + +Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to): +---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) +---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) +---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) +---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) +---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) +The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software. +Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/). + +Question +======== + +Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? + +Resolution +========== + +This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet. +","Yes, No" "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?","Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is ""[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs)."" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. @@ -1952,11 +2092,6 @@ Resolution Criteria This question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'. If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution. ","" -"Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?","Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic. -In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024. -Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? -Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention. -","Yes, No" "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?","Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is ""[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs)."" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. @@ -1971,18 +2106,30 @@ Resolution Criteria This question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'. If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution. ","" +"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. +Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. +This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? +By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. +To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. +","Yes, No" "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?","As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels) This question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? This question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth. ","" -"By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?","In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability. -[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these ""trigger"" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately. -Kelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening: -The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans. -[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws. -I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar. -By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect? -This question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality. +"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). +On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). +When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? +This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. +","" +"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. +It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). +It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). +Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? +The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021). +This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. +This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. +Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery. +Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. ","Yes, No" "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?","Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years. This question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050? @@ -1990,6 +2137,16 @@ For a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human mu If the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question. However, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans. ","Yes, No" +"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. +At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). +The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: +1--Number of Gold Medals +2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals +3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals +The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? +Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team. +","Yes, No" "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference. @@ -2001,12 +2158,30 @@ This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 Januar Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). ","Yes, No" -"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. -The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. -[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. -Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? -This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. -See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) +"Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?","Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960. +The latest is the [""Moon to Mars""](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1: +The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.' +The general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf). +[Metaculus has very similar and popular question ""Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA. +So, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? +The question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget. +","Yes, No" +"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. +Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? +After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? +(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.) +1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. +2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. +3--All prices are in USD. +4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. +","Yes, No" +"Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? +Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? +This question resolves ""Yes"" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves ""No"" otherwise. +If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. +The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. +If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". +If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. ","Yes, No" "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated. This question asks: @@ -2022,6 +2197,24 @@ While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-int Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" +"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. +The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" +"Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?","The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales. +With the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch. +In January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch. +While the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold. +Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? +Results published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf). +Only sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales). +The fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. +","Yes, No" "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. @@ -2041,6 +2234,17 @@ If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resol In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution. Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. ","" +"Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?","Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). +Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"". +Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? +Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025. +This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. +","Yes, No" +"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. +On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? +This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. +","Yes, No" "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). If success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change. Moreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly. @@ -2068,23 +2272,61 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). ","" -"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. -How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? ---- -Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight. ---- -In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times. ---- -Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. +"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). +[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" -"How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf). -One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen. -Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.) -","" -"What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?","As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks: -What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022? -Resolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England). -If no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. +"Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?","Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w). +Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030? +Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028. +","Yes, No" +"Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?","Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people, +--- +Amazon Mechanical Turk workers +--- +Redditors on /r/samplesize +--- +A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members. +--- +Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent ""the people"". +asking them +In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated? +A list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [""Year in Search""](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. +For the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun. +Whether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most ""smile"" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking, +If your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]? +If after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with ""Yes"", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +","Yes, No" +"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: +Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: +""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" +The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? +---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. +---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. +","Yes, No" +"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus: +---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) +Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) +The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) +[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists. +Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? +This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. +As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. +","Yes, No" +"How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?","[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is +a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat. +Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming. +The US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019. +This question asks: +How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year? +Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction. +Growth will be calculated as where is ""Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year "" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report). +Both figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead. ","" "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus: ---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) @@ -2095,6 +2337,24 @@ Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining any This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period. ","Yes, No" +"When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?","SpaceX has had four flights where prototypes of their Starship vehicle have gone above 10 km, each time resulting in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly- on landing for SN8 and SN9, 8 minutes after landing in the case of SN10, and SN11 in midair. +When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying? +This question resolves to the time that an upper stage vehicle made by SpaceX, representative of a vehicle that SpaceX officials expect to bring humans to Mars, flies to a height of at least 10 km, and remains continuously intact for at least 24 hours after making contact with the Earth after flight. If the ship experiences an RUD or has more than 15% of the mass of its main body no longer connected to the main body within 24 hours of landing, that flight will not trigger resolution. +","" +"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. +How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? +--- +Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight. +--- +In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times. +--- +Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. +","" +"What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?","As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks: +What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022? +Resolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England). +If no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. +","" "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?","[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles. Yamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class. The question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross. @@ -2123,33 +2383,98 @@ The Princeton Review Dream Colleges The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%. This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030. ","" +"Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?","On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: ""SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon""](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously. +Will SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon? +This question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The ""Dogecoin"" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively. +","Yes, No" +"When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. +Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. +Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. +When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? +This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met: +1-- +Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements. +2-- +Australia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine). +3-- +Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia. +Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions). +If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). +Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. +","" +"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. +Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? +This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. +This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. +","Yes, No" +"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. +Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. +Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? +This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press. +","Yes, No" +"By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?","In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability. +[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these ""trigger"" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately. +Kelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening: +The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans. +[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws. +I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar. +By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect? +This question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality. +","Yes, No" "A major United States earthquake by 2023?","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. 23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. ","Yes, No" -"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. -The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. -The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". -Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? -This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. -In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. -If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. +"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. +The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. +The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) +Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? +This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. +It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. ","Yes, No" -"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. -Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? -We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? -Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, -1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: -1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. -1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman. -1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). -1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. -AND -2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). -*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. +"When will the mammoth be revived?","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. +When will the mammoth be revived? +This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. +The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. +","" +"Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. +A brief overview on her: +Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. +With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory. +She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. +Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. +Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel? ","Yes, No" +"When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV), +The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981. +To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. +--- +This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people. +--- +Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. +The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: +--- +Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV. +--- +Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other. +--- +No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV +--- +The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below. +If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members. +","" +"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), +In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] +A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] +The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. +The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5. +This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)? +If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. +Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). +","" "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...] Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation. @@ -2165,19 +2490,6 @@ What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. ","" -"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. -Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. -This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? -By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. -By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. -This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. -","" -"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. -Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? -This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. -This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. -","Yes, No" "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). @@ -2193,34 +2505,63 @@ Bitfinex Bitstamp If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. ","" -"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): -Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. -If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. -Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? -If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. -If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. -","Yes, No" -"When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?","With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). -When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? -This question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. -Positive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account. -Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities. -Positive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases. -In case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as "">2090-10-25"". +"When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?","As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)). +The [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html): +The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. +Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? +Resolution details: +---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. +---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. +---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. +---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. ","" -"Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?","[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020. -The timeline of previous albums: -Lover (2019) -Reputation (2017) -1989 (2014) -Red (2012) -Speak Now (2010) -Fearless (2008) -Taylor Swift (2006) -Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? -An [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record. -If Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album. +"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). +Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? +This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. ","Yes, No" +"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. +One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. +Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? +The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. +","Yes, No" +"When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?","At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China. +The chosen metrics are, +--- +[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). +--- +[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). +--- +[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously. +This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China. +","" +"Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?","Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA. +After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger. +Will the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments? +This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively. +","Yes, No" +"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. +In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). +However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). +When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? +This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. +ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. +","" +"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. +The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). +When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? +This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". +","" +"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). +Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +","Yes, No" +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +","" "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014. He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg) However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election @@ -2229,55 +2570,39 @@ Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elect Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023. ","Yes, No" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. +[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). +What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? +This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","related question on Metaculus: ----[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) -More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) -However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. -In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice. -Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? -All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. -For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. -","Yes, No" "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time. In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""? If no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures. ","" -"Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?","The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021. -This project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. -Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? -This question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). -From the article above: ""There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch."" -This implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines. -If fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits. -For this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it. -Either way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes. -Determination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. -If no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no. +"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. +Will the Open Courts Act become law? +This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively. ","Yes, No" -"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. -After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). -What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? -This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. -","" -"What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background -========== +"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context +======= -[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. -[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. -What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021? +[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). +Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. +Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers +Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. +Related questions: +[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) +[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) +What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021? -Resolution -========== +Resolution Criteria +=================== -Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. -Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits). +Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). @@ -2298,28 +2623,12 @@ Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transport By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. -In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" -"Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?","The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)). -Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy. -At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance. -The question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050? -Question resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead. -Question resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist. -","Yes, No" -"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. -The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. -The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) -Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? -This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. -It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. +"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. +The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. +[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. +Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? +This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. +See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) ","Yes, No" "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. @@ -2339,26 +2648,61 @@ In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue]( In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). -In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. -This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? -Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. +"How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf). +One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen. +Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.) ","" -"What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880. -Here, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time? -Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date. -Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution. -Closing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.) +"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). -At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. -He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). -Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? -This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. -This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims. -If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. -He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. +"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. +Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? +We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? +Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, +1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: +1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. +1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman. +1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). +1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. +AND +2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). +*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. ","Yes, No" +"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. +The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. +The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". +Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? +This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. +In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. +If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. +Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. +This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? +By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. +By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. +This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. +","" +"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): +Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. +If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. +Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? +If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. +If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. +","Yes, No" +"When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?","With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). +When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? +This question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. +Positive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account. +Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities. +Positive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases. +In case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as "">2090-10-25"". +","" "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). [Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. @@ -2370,33 +2714,45 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out. ","" -"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/). -If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. -Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. -Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. -Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. -During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). -The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. -","Yes, No" -"Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. -A brief overview on her: -Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. -With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory. -She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. -Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. -Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel? -","Yes, No" +"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. +In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. +What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? +The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement. +","" "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. ","Yes, No" -"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. -The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. -In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515). -If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? -Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question. +"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). +This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? +Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. +If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. +Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. +","" +"What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge. +Two questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) +This question asks: +What fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024? +To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. +If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous. +For athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. +","" +"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. +After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). +What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? +This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. +","" +"Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf): +P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS. +According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030. +In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). +Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? +Resolution +This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data. +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. ","Yes, No" "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). @@ -2420,16 +2776,46 @@ The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided b --- The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. ","" -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. -On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. -The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. -Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? -This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. -Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). ----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +"What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background +========== + +[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. +[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. +What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021? + +Resolution +========== + +Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. +Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits). +","" +"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. +Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as +a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. +thus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too. +Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? +---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. +---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. ","Yes, No" +"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), +The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. +Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. +If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation."" +Will we find life on Mars by 2050? +This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. +","Yes, No" +"Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?","The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)). +Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy. +At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance. +The question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050? +Question resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead. +Question resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist. +","Yes, No" +"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). +In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. +This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? +Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. +","" "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. @@ -2449,15 +2835,21 @@ By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for exa Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. (Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.) ","" -"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), -In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] -A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] -The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. -The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5. -This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)? -If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. -Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). +"What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880. +Here, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time? +Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date. +Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution. +Closing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.) ","" +"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). +At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. +He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). +Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? +This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. +This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims. +If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. +He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. +","Yes, No" "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?","Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s. If progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI. How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? @@ -2501,6 +2893,11 @@ Here's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will 3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. 4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). ","" +"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). +When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? +This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. +If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. +","" "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context ======= @@ -2517,18 +2914,35 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). -Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? -This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. +"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. +In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. +Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? +This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). ","Yes, No" -"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. -Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. -The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? ----This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. ----It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. ----In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. +"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. +The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. +In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515). +If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? +Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question. ","Yes, No" +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. +The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. +Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? +This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. +Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). +---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. +---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. +---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +","Yes, No" +"Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?","This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. +The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) +The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. +In this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, . +It is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable. +It could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. +The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. +","" "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market. For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018. How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD? @@ -2555,23 +2969,13 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ","" -"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context -======= - -[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). -Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. -Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers -Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. -Related questions: -[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) -[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) -What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" +"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. +Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. +The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? +---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. +---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. +---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). @@ -2619,6 +3023,14 @@ If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could de When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech."" ","" +"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. +While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. +The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: +Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions +When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? +This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. +","" "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?","Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is. Stats to consider: Distance @@ -2645,14 +3057,17 @@ Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, ar In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans. Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100. ","Yes, No" -"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. -This question will resolve positively if: ----someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ----Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. -This question will resolve ambiguously if: ----Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ----Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. -","Yes, No" +"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. +What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? +The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. +","" +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +","" "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems. How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". @@ -2662,6 +3077,21 @@ For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are th The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results. ","" +"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php). +See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, +1-- +The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. +2-- +The U.S. Geological Survey. +3-- +The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. +4-- +A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. +","" +"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). +Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? +The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. +","Yes, No" "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). @@ -2669,16 +3099,45 @@ In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-re Resolution For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. ","" -"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. -One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. -Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? -The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. +"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". +According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. +Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). +Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? +This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. +Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". ","Yes, No" +"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","Context +------- + +The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. +The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, +“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.” +Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. +If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. +What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? + +Resolution Criteria +------------------- + +The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously. +","" "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). ","" +"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. +Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? +This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture. +When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT? +Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese. +A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. +More narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators. +The date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain. +","" "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? @@ -2692,14 +3151,22 @@ The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports. ","" -"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. -[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). -What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? -This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" +"Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. +The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud. +More details can be found here: +---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) +---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) +Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant. +This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes: +---Markus Braun +---Jan Marsalek +---Alexander von Knoop +---Susanne Steidl +---Jan Marsalek +---Oliver Bellenhaus +The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard. +Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment +","Yes, No" "Will online poker die by 2030?","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) @@ -2718,19 +3185,50 @@ On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess t The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. ","" -"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. -In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. -What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? -The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement. +"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. +In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. +This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? +This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human. ","" +"Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?","[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020. +The timeline of previous albums: +Lover (2019) +Reputation (2017) +1989 (2014) +Red (2012) +Speak Now (2010) +Fearless (2008) +Taylor Swift (2006) +Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? +An [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record. +If Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album. +","Yes, No" "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ","" -"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. -Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? -This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. +"What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. +However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch. +[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). +Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well. +What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? +Resolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026. +","" +"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as +collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) +where input n is a positive integer. +The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. +When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? +Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"". +The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. +Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: +---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) +---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) +---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) +---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) +","" +"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023? +This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022. ","Yes, No" "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","related question on Metaculus: ---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) @@ -2739,26 +3237,33 @@ Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. ","Yes, No" +"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus: +[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/) +Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia). +But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate? +Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm). +(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.) +Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? +This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31. +This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party. +Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period. +Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful. +Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. +","Yes, No" "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long? Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. ","Yes, No" -"Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf): -P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS. -According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030. -In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). -Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? -Resolution -This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data. -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. +"Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. +If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? +435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. +Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? +Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously. +.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it. +.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. -What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? -The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. -","" "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions. @@ -2769,12 +3274,6 @@ When will the first human mission to Venus take place? This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. ","" -"When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. -At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) -This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? -The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. -Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question. -","" "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?","The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour. In terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00. Joe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/). @@ -2783,31 +3282,81 @@ The resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increa If the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously. The question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. ","" -"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. -What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. +"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. +Recently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans. +It is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? +This questions resolves positive if: +EITHER +
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • +OR +
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • +OR +
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • +The resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count. +Here is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question: +
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • +Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question. +","Yes, No" +"Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others. +Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022? +Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)? +Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is ""in large part"" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. +","Yes, No" +"When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. +At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) +This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? +The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. +Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","" -"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. -While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. +"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. +Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. +This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? +The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. +","" +"What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are ""probable healthcare-associated infections"". +In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? +--- +Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes. +--- +Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates). +--- +If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available. +--- +Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. +","" +"Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. +The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1. +Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. +Will Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023? +This resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). +If MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively. +It resolves positively otherwise. +If a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai). +","Yes, No" +"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. +While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions -When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? -This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. +When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? +This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. +Related question +---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) +","" +"How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background +========== + +Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. +Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. +As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy. +How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. +The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k. ","" -"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). -Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). -This question asks: -Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? -This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: ----That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. -And: ----That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. -The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: -There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. -The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -","Yes, No" "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population. This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response. Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025? @@ -2828,11 +3377,37 @@ In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts. This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/). ","Yes, No" -"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. -In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. -Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? -This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). +"How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background +========== + +The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. +The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. +In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change. +How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. +","" +"Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?","A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, +specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified. +but of course +That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out. +This would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that: +""The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars."" +This question is a bit experimental, one of a series of ""self-resolving"" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: +--- +If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. +--- +Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. ","Yes, No" +"When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?","24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again. +Besides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028. +When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon? +This question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon. +In line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. +","" "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?","Context ======= @@ -2853,36 +3428,48 @@ For the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small Situations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected. ""Country"" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question. ","" -"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: -Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: -""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" -The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? ----Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. ----De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. -","Yes, No" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. +[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. +The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). +In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? +This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). +If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. ","" +"Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) ""Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders."". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken. +Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? +This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). +The relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period. +Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true: +---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity +---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. +Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted. +","Yes, No" +"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. +The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. +Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? +This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). +","Yes, No" "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. ","" -"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. -It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). -It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). -Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? -The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021). -This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. -This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. -Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery. -Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. -","Yes, No" +"If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? +This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats. +Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. +See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644) +","" +"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that: +“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” +These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. +The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. +The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. +What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? +Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. +Data: +Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% +","" "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?","Background ========== @@ -2899,12 +3486,35 @@ Resolution Criteria Predictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance. ","" +"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","related question on Metaculus: +---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) +Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. +Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? +This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO +If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. +Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. +","Yes, No" "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. ","" +"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. +In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. +When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? +Resolution +This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. +This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. +Data +These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): +2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) +","" +"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. +In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. +Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? +Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. +","Yes, No" "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? @@ -2916,6 +3526,15 @@ C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come in I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. ","" +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. +In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? @@ -2934,19 +3553,15 @@ The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. ","Yes, No" -"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context -======= - -Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. -You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). -The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. -What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. -","" +"Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. +[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter) +The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. +This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people. +As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak. +Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? +This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection. +Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question. +","Yes, No" "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? Index @@ -2978,6 +3593,11 @@ It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. ","Yes, No" +"When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. +When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? +The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. +If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.” +","" "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019. [On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976. @@ -2989,17 +3609,6 @@ This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corp This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019. The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.) ","" -"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php). -See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, -1-- -The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. -2-- -The U.S. Geological Survey. -3-- -The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. -4-- -A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. -","" "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions: @@ -3015,13 +3624,13 @@ If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions c Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. ","Yes, No" -"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. -As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. -[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. -Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? -This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. -In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. -","Yes, No" +"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). +[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. +What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? +This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). +GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +","" "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. ---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) @@ -3036,20 +3645,6 @@ The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously. November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for ""late 2021"". ","Yes, No" -"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). -Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? -The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. -","Yes, No" -"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. -The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?","The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html), This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles, @@ -3079,6 +3674,16 @@ The complete system was based on DL Most of system was based on DL The question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond ""I don't know"". ","Yes, No" +"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. +The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?","Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations. During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+). This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031? @@ -3088,48 +3693,24 @@ Wars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war be Terrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state. Armed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War. ","" +"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. +When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? +This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: +Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. +Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. +[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. +","" "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. [BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. ","" -"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). -Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021? -We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions: -1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. -2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. -According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"": ----trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater ----trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater ----trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater -The following examples would not: ----trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k ----trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k ----trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k -Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). -","Yes, No" -"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","Context -------- - -The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. -The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, -“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.” -Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. -If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. -What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? - -Resolution Criteria -------------------- - -The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously. +"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. +This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis)) +Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks: +When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)? +By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS. ","" -"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". -According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. -Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). -Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? -This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. -Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". -","Yes, No" "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf): The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads. @@ -3141,6 +3722,15 @@ Data According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014: 2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720. ","" +"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). +The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. +What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? +On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) +If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana. +The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons. +If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous. +If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous. +","" "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","Background ========== @@ -3174,6 +3764,24 @@ How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1s Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) ","" +"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","Background +========== + +[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. +The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. +The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. +What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? + +Data +==== + +Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type). + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). +","" "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/). Jeff McAulay argued, Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents. @@ -3182,17 +3790,6 @@ I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?","A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. -Features of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached. -The implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. -So far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues. -But there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on. - -Will a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years? - -For a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them. -(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.) -","Yes, No" "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?","Context ======= @@ -3218,21 +3815,22 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?","A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. +Features of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached. +The implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. +So far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues. +But there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on. + +Will a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years? + +For a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them. +(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.) +","Yes, No" "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars. When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars. ","" -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. -There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ----[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ----Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" -While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) -The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). -Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? -This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. -Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -","Yes, No" "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071). If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? @@ -3240,10 +3838,28 @@ Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www See also: ---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) ","" -"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. -The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). -When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? -This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". +"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context +======= + +Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. +You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). +The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. +What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. +","" +"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. +O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). +For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): +General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) +The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6. +How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? +This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* +For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). +If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. ","" "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?","Background ========== @@ -3259,28 +3875,11 @@ Resolution Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment). ","" -"When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture. -When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT? -Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese. -A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. -More narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators. -The date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain. +"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. +What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. ","" -"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. -At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). -The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: -1--Number of Gold Medals -2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals -3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals -The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? -Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team. -","Yes, No" -"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that -Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. -Will Hanson win the bet? -Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. -","Yes, No" "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. @@ -3288,6 +3887,24 @@ If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. ","Yes, No" +"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that +Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. +Will Hanson win the bet? +Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. +","Yes, No" +"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. +As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. +[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. +Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? +This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. +In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. +","Yes, No" +"World Population in 2050?","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. +Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. +Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? +We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) +Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. +","" "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?","Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented. Opposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively. However, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise. @@ -3309,46 +3926,32 @@ How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. ","" -"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. -Recently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans. -It is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? -This questions resolves positive if: -EITHER -
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • -OR -
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • -OR -
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • -The resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count. -Here is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question: -
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • -Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question. +"Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?","According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. +A nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates). +This question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030? +Resolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030. +This question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%). +In the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution. +If one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive. +Changelog: +---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). ","Yes, No" "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. ","" -"Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?","Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). -Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"". -Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? -Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025. -This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. +"Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?","The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021. +This project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. +Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? +This question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). +From the article above: ""There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch."" +This implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines. +If fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits. +For this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it. +Either way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes. +Determination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. +If no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no. ","Yes, No" -"When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. -Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. -Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. -When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? -This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met: -1-- -Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements. -2-- -Australia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine). -3-- -Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia. -Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions). -If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). -Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. -","" "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's ""cost per life saved"" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities? @@ -3371,15 +3974,6 @@ If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists). [1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program. ","Yes, No" -"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. -[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? -This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. -","Yes, No" "When will an AI pass the laugh test?","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) @@ -3398,6 +3992,14 @@ EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in s How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US. ","" +"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection. +If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? +If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets. +If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. +---Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. +---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. +---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. +","" "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house). Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely. @@ -3439,18 +4041,13 @@ As of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported]( Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045? This question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus: -[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/) -Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia). -But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate? -Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm). -(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.) -Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? -This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31. -This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party. -Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period. -Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful. -Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. +"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/). +If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. +Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. +Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. +Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. +During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). +The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. ","Yes, No" "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: @@ -3483,30 +4080,6 @@ In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 1 Resolution This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as ""> Dec 24, 2035"". ","" -"Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. -The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud. -More details can be found here: ----[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) ----[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) -Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant. -This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes: ----Markus Braun ----Jan Marsalek ----Alexander von Knoop ----Susanne Steidl ----Jan Marsalek ----Oliver Bellenhaus -The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard. -Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment -","Yes, No" -"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). -The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). -In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. -When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? -This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. -By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. -To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -","" "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS? @@ -3543,49 +4116,31 @@ This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. ","Yes, No" +"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. +Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. +There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building. +Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? +This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. +Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. +","Yes, No" "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. ","" -"What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate: -the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease. -This question asks: -What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? -This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states: -The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. -Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom -","" "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?","From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030? What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media. ","" -"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection. -If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? -If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets. -If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. ----Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. ----The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. ----The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. -","" -"Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. -The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1. -Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. -Will Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023? -This resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). -If MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively. -It resolves positively otherwise. -If a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai). +"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party. +Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold). +Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? +--- +If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well. +--- +If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question. ","Yes, No" -"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). -[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -","" "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) [Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? @@ -3593,37 +4148,6 @@ In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 U A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question. ","Yes, No" -"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. -While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. -The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: -Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions -When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? -This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. -Related question ----[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) -","" -"Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. -But life could take many forms: ----Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). ----Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). ----Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). ----Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). -These examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space. -Question: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based? -Life-form details: -1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. -2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. -3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. -Resolution details: ----The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. ----This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. ----This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. ----This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. ----This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. -* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example. -Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). -","Yes, No" "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?","Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task. The test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below. They found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law. @@ -3650,6 +4174,40 @@ The authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The The model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test. Fine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way. ","" +"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). +The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). +In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. +When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? +This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. +By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. +To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" +","" +"Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. +But life could take many forms: +---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). +---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). +---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). +---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). +These examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space. +Question: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based? +Life-form details: +1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. +2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. +3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. +Resolution details: +---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. +---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. +---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. +---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. +---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. +* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example. +Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). +","Yes, No" +"Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021. +Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. +","Yes, No" "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?","Background ========== @@ -3672,11 +4230,6 @@ Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial Whether an event is a ""scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination"" will be resolved per the [""I know it when I see it""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution. This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. ","Yes, No" -"Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021. -Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. -","Yes, No" "Will China land the next person on the Moon?","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. @@ -3708,6 +4261,10 @@ Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a pers The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. ","" +"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. +What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? +The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. +","" "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?","Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors: [Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate): Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme @@ -3727,28 +4284,12 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns. What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? ---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) ","" -"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. -In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. -This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? -This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human. -","" "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100. What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050? Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously. ","" -"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. -What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? -The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. -","" -"What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. -However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch. -[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). -Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well. -What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? -Resolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026. -","" "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -3761,25 +4302,6 @@ If Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. *As judged by a metaculus admin. ","" -"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as -collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) -where input n is a positive integer. -The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. -When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? -Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"". -The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. -Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: ----[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) ----[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) ----[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) ----[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) -","" -"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). -This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? -Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. -If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. -Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. -","" "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract, According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them. Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. @@ -3794,6 +4316,13 @@ When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency? ---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. ---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as "">2050-09-05"". ","" +"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. +Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? +--- +Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. +--- +The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. +","Yes, No" "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? @@ -3803,13 +4332,6 @@ Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","" -"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. -Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? ---- -Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. ---- -The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. -","Yes, No" "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -3819,18 +4341,6 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). ","" -"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). -The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. -What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ----The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). -","" -"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). -With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). -In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) -How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? -This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. -Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). -","" "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 @@ -3843,14 +4353,13 @@ How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks fro This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed. ---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. ","" -"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023? -This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022. -","Yes, No" -"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. -On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? -This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -","Yes, No" +"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). +With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). +In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) +How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? +This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. +Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). +","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -3865,14 +4374,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). ","" -"What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge. -Two questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) -This question asks: -What fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024? -To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. -If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous. -For athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. -","" "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. @@ -3948,25 +4449,6 @@ If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. ","" -"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). -On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). -When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? -This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -","" -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify. -In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" -"What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx). -What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? -What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous. -","" "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -3981,14 +4463,6 @@ The question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations o The consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. ","Yes, No" -"Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. -If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? -435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. -Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? -Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously. -.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it. -.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. -","Yes, No" "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/). Joseph F. Huttner argued, 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...] @@ -4000,26 +4474,20 @@ My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that th Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. -As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. -A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. -Here are some articles describing these issues: ----[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) ----[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) ----[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) -Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01? -This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify. -This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime. -For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following: ----Donald Trump ----Donald Trump Jr. ----Eric Trump ----Ivanka Trump ----Tiffany Trump ----Melania Trump ----Barron Trump ----Jared Kushner -","Yes, No" +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify. +In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" +"What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx). +What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? +What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous. +","" "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html). Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so. @@ -4028,14 +4496,6 @@ This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Cong This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise. ","Yes, No" -"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. -Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as -a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. -thus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too. -Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? ----If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. ----If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. -","Yes, No" "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time. Question @@ -4082,6 +4542,27 @@ If there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candid --- The entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01. ","Yes, No" +"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. +Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. +However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. +When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. +Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. +","" +"What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?","Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI), +measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. +The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is ""[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs)."" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. +Thanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. +The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download). +What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021? +An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N). + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'. +If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution. +","" "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?","Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance. In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary. However, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)). @@ -4092,15 +4573,6 @@ This question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs This resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat. If this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as ""> Oct 5, 2031"". ","" -"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. -The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. [The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? @@ -4112,17 +4584,6 @@ Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovati Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others. -Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022? -Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)? -Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is ""in large part"" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. -","Yes, No" -"When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. -[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) -[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) -This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? -Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. -","" "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): @@ -4148,57 +4609,18 @@ Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement. ","Yes, No" -"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. -Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. -This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? -The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. +"When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. +[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) +[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) +This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? +Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. ","" -"What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are ""probable healthcare-associated infections"". -In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? ---- -Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes. ---- -Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates). ---- -If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available. ---- -Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. -","" -"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), -The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. -Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. -If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation."" -Will we find life on Mars by 2050? -This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025? Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated. ","Yes, No" -"How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background -========== - -Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. -Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. -As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy. -How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. -The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k. -","" -"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. -The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. -Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). -Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. -Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? -This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). -If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. -","Yes, No" "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? @@ -4214,19 +4636,6 @@ Resolution criteria: With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. ","" -"How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background -========== - -The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. -The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. -In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change. -How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. -","" "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023? Resolution @@ -4259,40 +4668,6 @@ Related questions: ---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) ---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* ","" -"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. -The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. -[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. -This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? -This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. -This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. -","Yes, No" -"Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?","[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States. -On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted: -I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google. -Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: ""By market cap or evil?"", and Paul Graham responded: -By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is. -Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027. -Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? -This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. -The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" -"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. -","" "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. @@ -4304,12 +4679,23 @@ This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bi --- Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". ","Yes, No" -"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. -[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. -The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). -In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? -This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). -If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. +"Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?","[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States. +On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted: +I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google. +Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: ""By market cap or evil?"", and Paul Graham responded: +By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is. +Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027. +Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? +This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. +The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. ","" "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. @@ -4355,14 +4741,6 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously. ","" -"Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?","This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. -The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) -The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. -In this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, . -It is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable. -It could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. -The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. -","" "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus): Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. @@ -4393,15 +4771,6 @@ Additionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop co Amusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count. This question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination. ","" -"Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) ""Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders."". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken. -Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? -This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). -The relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period. -Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true: ----The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity ----A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. -Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted. -","Yes, No" "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. @@ -4426,19 +4795,41 @@ Similar questions: ---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) ---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) ","Yes, No" -"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. -The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. -Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? -This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). -","Yes, No" "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. ","Yes, No" -"If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? -This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats. -Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. -See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644) +"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. +That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) +All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): +This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air. +More exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising. +Some extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html). +And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air): +When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing. +Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.) +","Yes, No" +"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. +Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). +Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input. +How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? +This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". +Details of the search query +For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). +The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses): +Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area. +Running this query for previous years gives: +---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 +---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 +---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 +---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 +","" +"When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?","In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks? +[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner. +The World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic. +Critics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag. +When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks? +This question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question. ","" "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. @@ -4461,55 +4852,10 @@ No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two wee Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. ","" -"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that: -“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” -These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. -The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. -The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. -What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? -Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. -Data: -Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% -","" -"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. -Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). -Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input. -How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? -This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". -Details of the search query -For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses): -Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area. -Running this query for previous years gives: ----2,397 for the calendar year 2017 ----3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ----5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ----7,128 for the calendar year 2020 -","" -"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. -That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) -All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): -This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air. -More exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising. -Some extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html). -And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air): -When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing. -Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.) -","Yes, No" -"When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?","In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks? -[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner. -The World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic. -Critics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag. -When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks? -This question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question. -","" -"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","related question on Metaculus: ----[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) -Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. -Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? -This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO -If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. -Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. +"Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?","[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun. +In August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs. +Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050? +The question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC. ","Yes, No" "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) @@ -4520,27 +4866,6 @@ Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intell Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe. The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. ","" -"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. -Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. -This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? -By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. -To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. -","Yes, No" -"Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?","[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun. -In August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs. -Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050? -The question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC. -","Yes, No" -"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. -In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. -When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? -Resolution -This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. -This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. -Data -These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): -2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) -","" "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html). What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? @@ -4548,11 +4873,6 @@ The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) ","" -"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. -In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. -Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? -Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. -","Yes, No" "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -4571,44 +4891,12 @@ A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. ","" -"Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. -[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter) -The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. -This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people. -As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak. -Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? -This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection. -Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question. -","Yes, No" "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?","In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars. In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. [SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030? Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously. ","" -"When will the mammoth be revived?","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. -When will the mammoth be revived? -This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. -The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. -","" -"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. -In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: -1-- -White wins -2-- -Black wins -3-- -Forced draw -If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? -For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if ---- -it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides ---- -it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw -Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. -For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question -This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. -","Yes, No" "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?","In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States. This question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? Question resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it. @@ -4622,21 +4910,6 @@ The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Bui Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria. ","Yes, No" -"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). -[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. -What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? -This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). -GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -","" -"Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. -[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html) -In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) -However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member. -This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period? -This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025. -If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws. However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described. @@ -4660,17 +4933,6 @@ The date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credi A structure will be considered a ""cylinder"" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon). The purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. ","" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","" -"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. -Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. -There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building. -Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? -This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. -Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. -","Yes, No" "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?","previous Metaculus questions: ---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents. @@ -4701,13 +4963,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011. ","" -"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. -When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? -This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: -Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. -Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. -[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. -","" "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6. What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously. @@ -4719,16 +4974,10 @@ Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. ","" -"Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?","Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin. -[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/) -Dogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). -One of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). -In 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.” -Further reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/) -Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? -In order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted. -[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin) -","Yes, No" +"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020. +When will the US-Canada border reopen? +This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel. +","" "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? @@ -4764,39 +5013,23 @@ This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https:// If the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously. This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. ","" -"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. -O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). -For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): -General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) -The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6. -How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? -This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* -For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). -If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. +"When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?","The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [""garrison"" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. +The Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and ""rivers"" and ""seas"" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. +Unusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of ""rivers of mercury"". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. +The risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)). +When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? +This question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). +This will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question. ","" -"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. -This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis)) -Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks: -When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)? -By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS. -","" -"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). -Data sources: ----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) -What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. -In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. -","" -"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). -The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. -What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? -On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) -If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana. -The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons. -If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous. -If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous. +"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? +I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. +I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). +See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). +So what do you think? +When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? +This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. +Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). +If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". ","" "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","related questions on Metaculus: ---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) @@ -4817,34 +5050,13 @@ At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? The question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints). ","" -"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","Background -========== - -[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. -The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. -The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. -What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? - -Data -==== - -Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type). - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). -","" -"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? -I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. -I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). -See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). -So what do you think? -When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? -This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. -Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). -If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". -","" +"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). +According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. +Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? +This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period. +If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability. +If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive. +","Yes, No" "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. @@ -4855,13 +5067,6 @@ There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/ If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. ","" -"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). -According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. -Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? -This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period. -If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability. -If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive. -","Yes, No" "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","Context ======= @@ -4885,17 +5090,20 @@ More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01. ","Yes, No" +"Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?","Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin. +[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/) +Dogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). +One of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). +In 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.” +Further reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/) +Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? +In order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted. +[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin) +","Yes, No" "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. ","Yes, No" -"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. -[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). -When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? -This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). -If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. -If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. -","" "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?","The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session. How many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress? For reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below. @@ -4912,19 +5120,22 @@ The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each p 2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals ","Yes, No" -"World Population in 2050?","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. -Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. -Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? -We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) -Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. -","" "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?","The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177. How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? This question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A ""patient"" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.). ","" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +"When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. +While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes +The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds. +A great power is said to be ""at war"" with another great power, if any of the following are true: +--- +One nation has formally declared war on another. +--- +One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel. +--- +High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war."" +For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). +The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers? ","" "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) @@ -4945,28 +5156,6 @@ Melania Trump --- Barron Trump ","Yes, No" -"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. -Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). -Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? -This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: ----There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. ----There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. ----There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. -This question resolves negatively otherwise. -","Yes, No" -"When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. -While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes -The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds. -A great power is said to be ""at war"" with another great power, if any of the following are true: ---- -One nation has formally declared war on another. ---- -One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel. ---- -High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war."" -For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). -The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers? -","" "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?","Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is ""[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs)."" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. @@ -4991,24 +5180,15 @@ This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. ","" -"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. -Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. -However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. -When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. -Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. -","" -"When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?","[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is ""not fit for purpose"". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement. -It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. -This system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations. -The [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)] -When will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions? -Resolution -This resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight. -Important note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as "">Dec 31, 2032"". -One way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process. -The question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin. -","" +"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. +Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). +Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? +This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: +---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. +---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. +---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. +This question resolves negatively otherwise. +","Yes, No" "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. ","" @@ -5022,6 +5202,17 @@ Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies. In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. ","Yes, No" +"When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?","[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is ""not fit for purpose"". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement. +It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. +This system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations. +The [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)] +When will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions? +Resolution +This resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight. +Important note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as "">Dec 31, 2032"". +One way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process. +The question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin. +","" "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -5143,6 +5334,21 @@ Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 p ---2018: $617 ---2019: $592 ","" +"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. +In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. +In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. +This question sets a scaled-back goal: +Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? +This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. +","Yes, No" +"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. +Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. +As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. +How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? +This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. +The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. +If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. +","" "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?","Background ========== @@ -5158,30 +5364,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Predictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself. ","" -"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. -Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. -As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. -How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? -This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. -The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. -If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. -","" -"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. -In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. -In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. -This question sets a scaled-back goal: -Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? -This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. -","Yes, No" -"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. -The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. -This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: ----The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. ----There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. ----A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. -The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. -The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. -","Yes, No" "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? @@ -5195,6 +5377,14 @@ For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". ","Yes, No" +"When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?","Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/) +The company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media: +[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/) +[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi) +When will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading? +The question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a ""coming soon"" banner instead of access to 30+ markets. +The service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. +","" "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?","The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42. The [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows: To remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol. @@ -5224,14 +5414,6 @@ Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia. ","Yes, No" -"When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?","Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/) -The company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media: -[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/) -[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi) -When will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading? -The question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a ""coming soon"" banner instead of access to 30+ markets. -The service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. -","" "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?","Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/). If Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" @@ -5245,25 +5427,11 @@ In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question c Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. ","Yes, No" -"When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?","According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869. -When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000? -This question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date. -","" "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?","The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident). What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data? This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing). ","" -"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus: ----[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) -Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) -The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) -[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists. -Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? -This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. -As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. -","Yes, No" "When will the US-EU border reopen?","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". When will the US-EU border reopen? @@ -5289,10 +5457,6 @@ In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-do Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050. ","Yes, No" -"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020. -When will the US-Canada border reopen? -This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel. -","" "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. @@ -5327,17 +5491,19 @@ I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy] Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023. ","Yes, No" -"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. -When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%? -This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: -Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. -Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. -[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. -","" "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) ","" +"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","related question on Metaculus: +---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) +More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) +However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. +In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice. +Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? +All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. +For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. +","Yes, No" "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?","As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days. She has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. The oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. @@ -5362,13 +5528,6 @@ What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution. This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article. ","" -"Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?","Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this. -He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service. -Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running ""to be a watchdog on the inside"" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast. -This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States? -The question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date. -The question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030. -","Yes, No" "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- @@ -5395,56 +5554,31 @@ What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale Resolution This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. ","" -"Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?","The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College. -This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030. +"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). +Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021? +We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions: +1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. +2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. +According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"": +---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater +---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater +---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater +The following examples would not: +---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k +---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k +---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k +Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). ","Yes, No" -"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. -Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? -The question will resolve: -1--Rishi Sunak -2--Michael Gove -3--Jeremy Hunt -4--Priti Patel -5--None of the above -The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. -If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -","" "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. ---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. ---Platforms must be open to the public. ","Yes, No" -"When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. -When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? -The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. -If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.” +"When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?","According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869. +When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000? +This question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date. ","" -"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party. -In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. -More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). -Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? -Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. -","Yes, No" -"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. -When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? -This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. -This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. -Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). -If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. -","" -"Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?","Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. -The 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf) -Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. -The top three reasons for choosing this category are: ----36% There is ultimate meaning in life. ----26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. ----22% Mixture of religious beliefs. -The first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017. -Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? -This question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. -The 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022. -","Yes, No" "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?","Context ======= @@ -5463,6 +5597,18 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May. ","" +"Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?","Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. +The 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf) +Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. +The top three reasons for choosing this category are: +---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. +---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. +---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. +The first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017. +Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? +This question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. +The 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022. +","Yes, No" "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. @@ -5471,16 +5617,16 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","" +"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). +When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? +This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). +","" "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."" The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021."" Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). -When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? -This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). -","" "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. @@ -5497,46 +5643,15 @@ This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. ","" -"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. -[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. -The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. ---- -If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins. ---- -If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated. ---- -The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count. ---- -Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded. ---- -Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count. -This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two. -In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%. -[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. -What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? -This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. -","" -"When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?","SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly. -When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly? -A Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution. -","" "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. ","" -"Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?","The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote. -The rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017. -Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? -This question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster. -","Yes, No" -"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/). -Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants). -Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time? -Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017? -Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. -Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required. -","Yes, No" +"When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?","SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly. +When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly? +A Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution. +","" "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? @@ -5551,6 +5666,13 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Co This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" +"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/). +Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants). +Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time? +Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017? +Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. +Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required. +","Yes, No" "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?","Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution. Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022? Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution. @@ -5563,14 +5685,12 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","" -"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles. -When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? -This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria: ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. +"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". +In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. +In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. +What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? +This question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025. +If there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. ","" "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?","[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer). The Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open. @@ -5586,19 +5706,21 @@ Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. ","Yes, No" -"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". -In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. -In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. -What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? -This question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025. -If there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. -","" "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?","For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take. Question: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans? Resolution details: ---Only humans in the observable universe count. ---""Humans"" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. ","" +"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles. +When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? +This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria: +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. +","" "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). The proposition in question will be taken as: The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. @@ -5612,26 +5734,22 @@ Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?","Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second. What will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022? ","" -"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? -Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? -The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. -An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) -","Yes, No" -"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. -In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. -In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. -This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) -Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. -Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. -Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. -","Yes, No" -"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. -Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? -The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm). -Related Questions ----[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ----[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) -If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. +"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. +[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). +When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? +This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). +If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. +If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. +","" +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: +---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. +---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" +While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) +The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). +Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? +This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. +Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. ","Yes, No" "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?","Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/) The United States House of Representatives (""House"") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so. @@ -5646,6 +5764,14 @@ The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Me Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.). Note: A vote to remove a Member following an ""Election Contest"" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. ","Yes, No" +"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. +Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? +The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm). +Related Questions +---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) +---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) +If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. +","Yes, No" "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?","Background ========== @@ -5672,6 +5798,39 @@ Stunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unco In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. In case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute. ","" +"Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?","[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances: +--- +when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)), +--- +to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)), +--- +or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)). +The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1). +Recent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks: +Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? +This question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive. +This question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead. + +Related questions +----------------- + +---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) +---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) +If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question. +","Yes, No" +"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. +When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? +This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. +This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. +Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). +If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. +","" +"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party. +In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. +More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). +Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? +Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. @@ -5685,10 +5844,12 @@ If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroac This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. ","" -"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. -What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? -This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. -Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. +"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). +Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. +What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. +Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). ","" "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","Context ======= @@ -5716,13 +5877,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released. ","" -"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). -Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. -What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. -Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). -","" "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. ""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: @@ -5768,6 +5922,31 @@ For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at le How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US? This question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). ","" +"Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?","Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) +The preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741. +... +AstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email. +The half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q) +Around the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain. +They soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said. +“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos. +Since the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively. +Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses? +This question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. +This question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.) +This question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021. +","Yes, No" +"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. +Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? +The question will resolve: +1--Rishi Sunak +2--Michael Gove +3--Jeremy Hunt +4--Priti Patel +5--None of the above +The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. +If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -5779,11 +5958,11 @@ For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, su Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). -When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? -This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. -If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. -","" +"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? +A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. +Who will win? +Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. +","Yes, No" "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...] @@ -5794,6 +5973,11 @@ In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3? After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"". ","" +"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? +Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? +The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. +An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) +","Yes, No" "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?","Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10). When will China become a democracy? This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published. @@ -5814,33 +5998,14 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ---181 for the calendar year 2020 ","" -"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context - -Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. -This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? - -Resolution Criteria - -This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -","Yes, No" -"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): -A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. -He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). -Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? ----Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. ----Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. ----Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. -ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively -","Yes, No" -"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. -Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? -After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? -(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.) -1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. -2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. -3--All prices are in USD. -4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. +"Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?","The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College. +This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. +What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? +This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. +Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. +","" "How large will Monaco be in 2035?","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png) @@ -5855,6 +6020,26 @@ Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Roy The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor. ","" +"Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. +As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. +A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. +Here are some articles describing these issues: +---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) +---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) +---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) +Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01? +This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify. +This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime. +For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following: +---Donald Trump +---Donald Trump Jr. +---Eric Trump +---Ivanka Trump +---Tiffany Trump +---Melania Trump +---Barron Trump +---Jared Kushner +","Yes, No" "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","Context ======= @@ -5894,6 +6079,13 @@ For the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated To pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology). Specifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by ","" +"Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?","Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this. +He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service. +Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running ""to be a watchdog on the inside"" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast. +This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States? +The question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date. +The question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030. +","Yes, No" "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. --[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) @@ -5942,11 +6134,34 @@ For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accura By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI? Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) ","Yes, No" +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +","" "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). ","" +"When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. +[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. +When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: +1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). +2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. +*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following: +1-- +Published in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning +2-- +Cites Niven and Kao +3-- +Pre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task) +If the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold. +","" "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3. Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page. @@ -5962,6 +6177,25 @@ Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 202 Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. ","Yes, No" +"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. +[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. +The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. +--- +If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins. +--- +If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated. +--- +The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count. +--- +Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded. +--- +Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count. +This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two. +In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%. +[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. +What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? +This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. +","" "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. @@ -5976,6 +6210,11 @@ The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies no Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall. ","Yes, No" +"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), +a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. +When will be the next S&P 500 correction? +The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens. +","" "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP). When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? ---Countries with 1M population size only. @@ -5994,6 +6233,14 @@ Resolution will be by credible media reports. Old resolution criteria: This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency. ","Yes, No" +"What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate: +the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease. +This question asks: +What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? +This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states: +The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. +Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom +","" "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question. As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021. On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? @@ -6001,6 +6248,25 @@ On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to C Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.). If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source. ","" +"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). +The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. +This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? +In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution. +The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: +Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 +","" +"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. +Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: +---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); +---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). +Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? +The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either: +---An explicit tax on childlessness. +---A tax levied on each person except those with children. +For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50. +The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count. +If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. +","Yes, No" "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?","Background ========== @@ -6024,25 +6290,6 @@ Resolution Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment). ","" -"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). -The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. -This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? -In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution. -The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: -Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 -","" -"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. -Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: ----[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); ----[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). -Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? -The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either: ----An explicit tax on childlessness. ----A tax levied on each person except those with children. -For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50. -The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count. -If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. -","Yes, No" "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?","For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. This question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere? For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and ""self"") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness. @@ -6052,6 +6299,12 @@ For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both ali When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. ","" +"When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?","In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.). +Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/). +When, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US? +This question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President. +Only [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question. +","" "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -6060,6 +6313,14 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","" +"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. +The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. +Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). +Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. +Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? +This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). +If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. +","Yes, No" "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off. Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. @@ -6138,14 +6399,6 @@ Resolution Predictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders). ","" -"Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/) -The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign. -Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides. -Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? -This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023. -""Senator"" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question. -The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. -","Yes, No" "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?","Context ======= @@ -6169,6 +6422,14 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/) +The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign. +Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides. +Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? +This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023. +""Senator"" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question. +The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. +","Yes, No" "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans. Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks: @@ -6189,10 +6450,23 @@ This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the --- This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met. ","Yes, No" -"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? -A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. -Who will win? -Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. +"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. +It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. +Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? +Resolution details: +--- +Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. +--- +Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. +--- +Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. +--- +Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. +--- +In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). +--- +If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. +Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/). The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660. @@ -6205,6 +6479,11 @@ This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the populati Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product. ","Yes, No" +"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. +Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. +In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. +","Yes, No" "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: @@ -6220,11 +6499,6 @@ For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. ","Yes, No" -"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. -Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. -In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. -","Yes, No" "Increased off-world population in 2050?","At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/) For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. @@ -6296,6 +6570,10 @@ How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/) ","" +"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) +Will this goal be realized? +The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. +","Yes, No" "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well). The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. @@ -6314,10 +6592,6 @@ Xi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) pa --- Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics. ","Yes, No" -"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) -Will this goal be realized? -The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. -","Yes, No" "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? @@ -6333,6 +6607,15 @@ Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. ","Yes, No" +"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context + +Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. +This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? + +Resolution Criteria + +This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. +","Yes, No" "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?","Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? @@ -6346,6 +6629,11 @@ When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. ","" +"How much global warming by 2100?","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. +[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. +Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? +Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. +","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. @@ -6419,11 +6707,9 @@ on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that si Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. -B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions. -In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing. -What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)? -This question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021. +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ","" "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). @@ -6520,6 +6806,10 @@ Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) o This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. ","Yes, No" +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +","" "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that: The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution. @@ -6540,14 +6830,6 @@ To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service. ","" -"Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? -Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? -This question resolves ""Yes"" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves ""No"" otherwise. -If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. -The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. -If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". -If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. -","Yes, No" "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. @@ -6556,6 +6838,11 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Wor This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" +"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). +The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. +What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? +---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). +","" "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index @@ -6576,20 +6863,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. ","" -"Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?","As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html): -Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border. -The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others ""orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors"". -The indictment claims the ""scheme"" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. -[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges). -The official charges are as follows: -1-- -BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.” -2-- -Those representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis. -Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge? ----The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). ----Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. -","Yes, No" "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?","Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their ""Color of the Year"", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022. What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022? The question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/). @@ -6619,6 +6892,20 @@ The percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021 To resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31. 9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01. ","" +"Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?","As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html): +Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border. +The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others ""orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors"". +The indictment claims the ""scheme"" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. +[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges). +The official charges are as follows: +1-- +BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.” +2-- +Those representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis. +Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge? +---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). +---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. +","Yes, No" "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble). What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021? @@ -6633,19 +6920,6 @@ Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-la How many emoji related court cases in 2021? Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. ","" -"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. -2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). -Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). -The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. -The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor. -Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. -The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). -(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey ) -Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? -The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW. -For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian. -The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs. -","Yes, No" "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months. Progress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%. @@ -6673,16 +6947,27 @@ Development over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statis What sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015? Resolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available. ","" -"How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?","[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is -a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat. -Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming. -The US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019. -This question asks: -How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year? -Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction. -Growth will be calculated as where is ""Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year "" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report). -Both figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead. -","" +"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. +2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). +Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). +The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. +The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor. +Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. +The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). +(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey ) +Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? +The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW. +For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian. +The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs. +","Yes, No" +"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. +This question will resolve positively if: +---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and +---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. +This question will resolve ambiguously if: +---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. +---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. +","Yes, No" "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?","Background ========== @@ -6856,6 +7141,15 @@ This question resolves when any one of the following events occurs: 5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. The question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video). ","" +"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","Related questions: +[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) +[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) +This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. +According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US. +When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? +This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). +If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. +","" "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated. Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists. If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States. @@ -6867,15 +7161,6 @@ This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Ti If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada. Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary. ","" -"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","Related questions: -[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) -[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) -This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. -According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US. -When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? -This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). -If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. -","" "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. @@ -6921,6 +7206,10 @@ If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. *As judged by a metaculus admin. ","" +"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. +Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? +This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. +","Yes, No" "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? @@ -6933,10 +7222,6 @@ So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,6 Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting. ","Yes, No" -"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. -Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? -This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. -","Yes, No" "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. @@ -6969,24 +7254,6 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. ","Yes, No" -"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. -It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. -Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? -Resolution details: ---- -Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. ---- -Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. ---- -Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. ---- -Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. ---- -In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). ---- -If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. -Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd). @@ -7020,24 +7287,6 @@ The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous. If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. ","" -"When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV), -The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981. -To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. ---- -This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people. ---- -Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. -The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: ---- -Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV. ---- -Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other. ---- -No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV ---- -The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below. -If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members. -","" "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?","The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. Indefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution. President Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. @@ -7528,6 +7777,11 @@ So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.o This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place. ","" +"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: +When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? +For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). +Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050. +","Yes, No" "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?","The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, ""soft power"" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). Could this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as ""kinetic conflict"") in the near future? Some Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): @@ -7538,21 +7792,11 @@ On the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the la Thus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in ""kinetic conflict"", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a ""cold war""). ","Yes, No" -"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: -When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? -For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). -Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050. -","Yes, No" "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021. ","Yes, No" -"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. -Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. -This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? -The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. -","" "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? Resolution details: @@ -7561,6 +7805,11 @@ To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or --- The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. ","Yes, No" +"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. +Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. +This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? +The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. +","" "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. @@ -7715,20 +7964,6 @@ This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and res 'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. ","" -"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. -So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter. -In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: ---- -the Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February. ---- -AstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February. ---- -Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial ---- -Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial -How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? -The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered. -","" "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017. How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030? This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used. @@ -7746,6 +7981,20 @@ Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by prov But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. ","" +"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. +So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter. +In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: +--- +the Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February. +--- +AstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February. +--- +Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial +--- +Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial +How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? +The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered. +","" "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? @@ -7874,11 +8123,6 @@ There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.meta When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) ","" -"Kessler syndrome by 2050?","The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. -We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. -It is asked: -By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? -","Yes, No" "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: 1-- @@ -7904,6 +8148,11 @@ Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question f The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. ","" +"Kessler syndrome by 2050?","The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. +We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. +It is asked: +By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? +","Yes, No" "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. ","" @@ -7934,10 +8183,6 @@ As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). ","" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","" "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: @@ -7948,6 +8193,10 @@ If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December Related question ---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) ","" +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +","" "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? @@ -7959,16 +8208,6 @@ This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar y The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029. Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press. ","" -"When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. -Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. -(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) -If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement. -More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car) -Related questions: ----[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) ----[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) -[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. -","" "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)): Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system. According to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go. @@ -7987,6 +8226,16 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscape This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" +"When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. +Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. +(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) +If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement. +More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car) +Related questions: +---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) +---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) +[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. +","" "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?","With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. As such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken? When will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold? @@ -8042,33 +8291,6 @@ Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) ","" -"Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) -Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year. -[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C. -[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030: ---- -Peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early; ---- -Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and ---- -Increasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level. -Currently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals. -Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? -This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030. -","Yes, No" -"Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the ""Conservatives"" or ""Tories"". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. -Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? -This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party. -Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. -Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/). -If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London. -If the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party. -In case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT: -1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, -2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and -3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. -If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?","[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm. An early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications. @@ -8079,11 +8301,6 @@ This means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-h Resolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal. Keyword for search: artificial womb. ","" -"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), -a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. -When will be the next S&P 500 correction? -The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens. -","" "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf). @@ -8187,6 +8404,10 @@ Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republica For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts. If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. ","Yes, No" +"Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009. +This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +This question can be resolved at any time. +","Yes, No" "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -8216,10 +8437,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution. ","" -"Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009. -This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -This question can be resolved at any time. -","Yes, No" "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","Context ======= @@ -8273,12 +8490,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 ","" -"When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?","In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.). -Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/). -When, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US? -This question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President. -Only [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question. -","" "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?","The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy) Open Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets? Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth. @@ -8292,6 +8503,13 @@ This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja? Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion. This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. ","" +"How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). +The overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). +According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016. +How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? +Resolution +This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. +","" "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -8301,13 +8519,6 @@ This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. ","Yes, No" -"How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). -The overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). -According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016. -How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? -Resolution -This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. -","" "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?","Context ------- @@ -8382,6 +8593,15 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ","" +"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). +In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. +The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. +The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). +What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list? +This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list. +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +","" "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) @@ -8392,15 +8612,6 @@ Related questions: ---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) [ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. ","" -"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). -In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. -The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. -The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). -What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list? -This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list. -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -","" "When will Croatia adopt the euro?","Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back. This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro? This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time. @@ -8514,17 +8725,6 @@ Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022. This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. ","Yes, No" -"Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?","Context -======= - -The kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand. -According to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358). - -Question and Resolution -======================= - -Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030? -","Yes, No" "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). [Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. @@ -8543,6 +8743,17 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin. ","" +"Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?","Context +======= + +The kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand. +According to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358). + +Question and Resolution +======================= + +Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030? +","Yes, No" "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?","An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot. The Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race. The current recall petition has currently collected [495 thousand](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-sixth.pdf) signatures out of the 1.5 million needed. @@ -8722,6 +8933,14 @@ What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale Resolution This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. ","" +"When will the first cloned human be born?","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. +The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: +[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action. +They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle... +(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."") +On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. +When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal. +","" "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","Context ======= @@ -8740,14 +8959,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"When will the first cloned human be born?","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. -The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: -[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action. -They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle... -(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."") -On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. -When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal. -","" "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?","Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics. @@ -9019,6 +9230,11 @@ Similar questions: ---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) ---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) ","" +"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. +Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. +Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. +Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029. +","Yes, No" "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/). The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? @@ -9034,11 +9250,6 @@ Considering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's pr What will the portion of the global population identifying as ""religiously unaffiliated"" be in 2050? The resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for ""religiously unaffiliated"" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems). ","" -"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. -Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. -Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. -Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029. -","Yes, No" "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?","“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).” Used to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C. By 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater. @@ -9109,13 +9320,6 @@ This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?","In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). -Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe. -In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute). -Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030? -Resolution -This resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward. -","Yes, No" "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context ======= @@ -9129,6 +9333,13 @@ Resolution Criteria This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. ","" +"Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?","In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). +Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe. +In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute). +Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030? +Resolution +This resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward. +","Yes, No" "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items). How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? @@ -9172,18 +9383,6 @@ How long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out? Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? For these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military. ","Yes, No" -"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). -[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. -Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. -[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. -On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. -70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 -However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. -When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. -While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -","" "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -9199,6 +9398,18 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14 positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values. ","" +"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). +[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. +Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. +[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. +On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. +70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 +However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. +When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. +While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. +","" "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?","[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter. But will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654). What will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? @@ -9259,10 +9470,6 @@ When will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehi Autopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be ""at fault"" or not (as this may ambiguous.) Note: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important. ","" -"Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?","The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. -Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex? -This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex. -","Yes, No" "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?","In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far. The question is: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA? @@ -9322,22 +9529,6 @@ It defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorit It is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index). The question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met. ","Yes, No" -"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering) -Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing. -For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200. -1-- -At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health. -2-- -Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope. -3-- -There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, ""a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems."" -4-- -A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering. -5-- -A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering. -6-- -Brian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level. -","Yes, No" "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028","According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms. Last year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other. [New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) . @@ -9347,11 +9538,6 @@ Freedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0- What will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028? This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued. ","" -"What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?","For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years. -Yet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called ""third-party candidates"" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%. -What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? -This resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%. -","" "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election), Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was ""the most secure in American history."" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was ""no evidence of widespread fraud"" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition. Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? @@ -9367,6 +9553,11 @@ A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey particip Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have ""projected"" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of ""projected"" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. ","Yes, No" +"What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?","For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years. +Yet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called ""third-party candidates"" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%. +What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? +This resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%. +","" "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?","Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. Heavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020. Ununennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production. @@ -9630,6 +9821,14 @@ Resolution This questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms: ""Climate engineering"" OR ""geoengineering"" OR ""Solar radiation management"" OR ""Stratospheric Particle Injection"" OR ""Stratospheric aerosol injection"" OR ""Marine cloud brightening"" OR ""Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement"" ","Yes, No" +"When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015. +However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. +Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. +Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015. +See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf) +This question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%? +For the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously. +","" "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?","Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. @@ -9645,14 +9844,6 @@ New content means: all three of which occur pretty routinely. New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a ""response"" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way. ","Yes, No" -"When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015. -However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. -Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. -Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015. -See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf) -This question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%? -For the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously. -","" "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?","The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19. In a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan: In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. @@ -9674,16 +9865,6 @@ This questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of th In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency. Assessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include ""probably"", ""likely"", ""with high probability"" and ""almost certainly"". ","Yes, No" -"Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf): -P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand. -According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030. -In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). -Will renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? -Resolution -This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data. -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. -","Yes, No" "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C. [Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030: @@ -9772,13 +9953,6 @@ Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new North Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world. January 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves > in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200. ","" -"In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?","The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person. -In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? -Resolution: ----Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) ----If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. ----If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. -","" "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?","Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve. What is the ultimate fate of the ""stuff"" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable. After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void. @@ -9792,14 +9966,13 @@ Protons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-p What do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? Question ""resolves"" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.) ","Yes, No" -"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. -Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/), -The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. -For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. -Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently. -I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. -This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" +"In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?","The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person. +In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? +Resolution: +---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) +---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. +---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. +","" "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?","Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X) a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales. It was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. @@ -9809,6 +9982,14 @@ Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse Will Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030? Resolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" +"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. +Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/), +The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. +For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. +Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently. +I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. +This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. +","Yes, No" "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?","[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [""A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology"".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html) The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity. An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals. @@ -9903,16 +10084,6 @@ For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, su Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?","According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. -A nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates). -This question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030? -Resolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030. -This question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%). -In the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution. -If one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive. -Changelog: ----2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). -","Yes, No" "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index @@ -10132,10 +10303,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 ","" -"Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials). -Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? -This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date. -","Yes, No" "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. @@ -10145,6 +10312,10 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","" +"Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials). +Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? +This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date. +","Yes, No" "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?","Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/). Robert D Atkinson argued, U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the ""low hanging fruit has been picked."" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the ""s-curve"" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor) @@ -10375,6 +10546,10 @@ If EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the c What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. ","" +"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. +Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. +","Yes, No" "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?","Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity. But how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises. We can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online. @@ -10395,10 +10570,6 @@ It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will Can we get there before the 2030s? Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise. ","Yes, No" -"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. -Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. -","Yes, No" "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?","The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time. Since that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most ""veteran"" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites. When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time? @@ -10459,6 +10630,12 @@ This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for * ""military personnel"" here includes the Coast Guard. ""conscription"" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation. ","Yes, No" +"Will humans go extinct by 2100?","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. +In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. +Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? +For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) +N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. +","Yes, No" "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?","The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states. It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10). @@ -10467,12 +10644,6 @@ What will that number be in the 2040 report? This question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10). * ""Metaculus"" here means ""Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section"". ","" -"Will humans go extinct by 2100?","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. -In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. -Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? -For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) -N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. -","Yes, No" "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?","Why care Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown. [On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), ""fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation."" @@ -10593,18 +10764,6 @@ Resolution This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook). ","" -"Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?","A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, -specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified. -but of course -That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out. -This would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that: -""The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars."" -This question is a bit experimental, one of a series of ""self-resolving"" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: ---- -If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. ---- -Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. -","Yes, No" "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?","[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)). What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025? ---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. @@ -11464,11 +11623,6 @@ Following a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with signif This question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025? Any and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question. ","Yes, No" -"Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?","In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion. -As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point. -This question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively. -If the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?","This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/) Not to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. In 2017, MDMA was designated a ""breakthrough therapy"". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) @@ -11485,6 +11639,11 @@ With the Breakthrough Therapy ""fast track"" designation on their side, will MAP To resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive. ","Yes, No" +"Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?","In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion. +As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point. +This question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively. +If the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?","Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. Europe is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390). Growth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. @@ -11672,20 +11831,6 @@ In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in Decembe The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%. In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value. ","" -"When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. -[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. -When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: -1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). -2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. -*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following: -1-- -Published in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning -2-- -Cites Niven and Kao -3-- -Pre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task) -If the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold. -","" "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. @@ -11695,10 +11840,6 @@ As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc. ","Yes, No" -"Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?","Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w). -Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030? -Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028. -","Yes, No" "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world. [According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom. In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement. @@ -11715,14 +11856,14 @@ By the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fideli By implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/). Note that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail. ","Yes, No" -"Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. -In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels? -Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question. -","Yes, No" "When will the next Qatari general election be held?","Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced. When will Qatar hold its first legislative election? If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting. ","" +"Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. +In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels? +Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question. +","Yes, No" "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?","The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html): In the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined. Among [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/): @@ -11776,11 +11917,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution. ","" -"Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?","There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) -[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate. -Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? -A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs. -","Yes, No" "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?","From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet), Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...] From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing. @@ -12146,14 +12282,6 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin. ","" -"Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida. -The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour. -Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate. -The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling ""surface"". -""I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,"" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. -""It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!"" she told BBC News. -Resolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan. -","Yes, No" "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?","The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market. It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)). This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023. @@ -12652,6 +12780,17 @@ Luckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s Will the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? Resolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise. ","Yes, No" +"When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?","Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are ""combination"" trucks such as tractor-trailers. +All of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one: +When will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? +For positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the ""passenger seat"" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) ""Coast-to-coast"" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.) +","" +"How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?","The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers. +[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package. +How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021? +Resolution +This question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report. +","" "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4). Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). @@ -12665,17 +12804,6 @@ Data --- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/). ","Yes, No" -"When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?","Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are ""combination"" trucks such as tractor-trailers. -All of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one: -When will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? -For positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the ""passenger seat"" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) ""Coast-to-coast"" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.) -","" -"How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?","The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers. -[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package. -How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021? -Resolution -This question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report. -","" "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?","[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war. [World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war. [World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact. @@ -13102,11 +13230,6 @@ Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a ne For the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China). Resolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025. ","Yes, No" -"Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?","The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say. -There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate ""Voynichese"" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)). -This question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. -It resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050. -","Yes, No" "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. Tesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. ""I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year"" -Elon Musk in April 2019. @@ -13127,6 +13250,11 @@ Similar questions: ---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. ---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. ","" +"Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?","The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say. +There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate ""Voynichese"" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)). +This question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. +It resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050. +","Yes, No" "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?","The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [""the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.""](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019. This question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? In 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/). @@ -13334,12 +13462,6 @@ The other names of the many-worlds interpretation include ""the relative state f This question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively. [Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence. ","Yes, No" -"Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?","In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here. -The message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. -In March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042. -Will a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045? -This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045. -","Yes, No" "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]","Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range. [Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018). @@ -13350,6 +13472,12 @@ This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of n In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. ","" +"Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?","In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here. +The message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. +In March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042. +Will a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045? +This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045. +","Yes, No" "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?","A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases: @@ -14239,12 +14367,6 @@ This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any languag Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) -[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering) -The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html) -This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? -Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. -","Yes, No" "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson: Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030? @@ -14255,6 +14377,12 @@ If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively --- If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively ","Yes, No" +"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) +[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering) +The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html) +This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? +Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. +","Yes, No" "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks. It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.). The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)]. @@ -14850,28 +14978,6 @@ Bart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laug How long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)? (Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.) ","" -"Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?","Context -======= - -Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to): ----[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) ----[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) ----[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) ----[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) ----[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) -The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software. -Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/). - -Question -======== - -Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? - -Resolution -========== - -This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet. -","Yes, No" "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?","A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability. This could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks: What will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM? @@ -14926,26 +15032,6 @@ In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in Decembe The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%. In case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value. ","" -"Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?","[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances: ---- -when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)), ---- -to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)), ---- -or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)). -The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1). -Recent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks: -Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? -This question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive. -This question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead. - -Related questions ------------------ - ----[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) ----[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) -If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question. -","Yes, No" "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?","In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”. Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing. A [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030. @@ -14974,14 +15060,6 @@ are not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given exp If N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. ""Comet breakup""), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached. Resolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc) ","Yes, No" -"When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?","The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [""garrison"" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. -The Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and ""rivers"" and ""seas"" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. -Unusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of ""rivers of mercury"". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. -The risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)). -When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? -This question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). -This will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question. -","" "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?","At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a ""deliverable""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_(1)_(%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh)_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels. The Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support. Admittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached. @@ -15180,11 +15258,6 @@ MDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopami Non-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen? This question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval. ","Yes, No" -"Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?","Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA. -After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger. -Will the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments? -This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively. -","Yes, No" "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?","Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades. 5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within ""4-5 years""](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future. Neither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily. @@ -15194,14 +15267,6 @@ B) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discon Question resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise. Note: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates. ","Yes, No" -"When will China legalise same-sex marriage?","At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code. -According to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage): -The Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission. -The report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website. -The question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage? -The question takes ""legalisation"" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another. -This question resolves as ""> Jan 1, 2100"" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100. -","" "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?","Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models. Human clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating: ---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) @@ -15210,6 +15275,14 @@ Human clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating: Will a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%? This question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution) ","Yes, No" +"When will China legalise same-sex marriage?","At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code. +According to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage): +The Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission. +The report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website. +The question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage? +The question takes ""legalisation"" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another. +This question resolves as ""> Jan 1, 2100"" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100. +","" "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?","At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander: NASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024. The three companies are: @@ -15493,20 +15566,6 @@ This relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 Would we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030. Resolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone. ","" -"Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?","Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) -The preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741. -... -AstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email. -The half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q) -Around the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain. -They soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said. -“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos. -Since the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively. -Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses? -This question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. -This question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.) -This question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021. -","Yes, No" "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). As predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): 1-- @@ -15660,14 +15719,6 @@ When will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of car ---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. ETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question. ","" -"Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?","Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960. -The latest is the [""Moon to Mars""](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1: -The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.' -The general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf). -[Metaculus has very similar and popular question ""Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA. -So, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? -The question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget. -","Yes, No" "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?","[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains. [In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC). On what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025? @@ -15776,6 +15827,11 @@ For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. ","Yes, No" +"When will the United States admit a new state?","[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union. +Question: When will the United States admit a new state? +This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A ""new state"" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019. +It resolves as ""> Dec 31, 2050"" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050. +","" "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- @@ -15794,11 +15850,6 @@ Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mi For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. ","Yes, No" -"When will the United States admit a new state?","[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union. -Question: When will the United States admit a new state? -This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A ""new state"" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019. -It resolves as ""> Dec 31, 2050"" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050. -","" "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?","Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf). Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom). Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? @@ -15920,23 +15971,6 @@ Here we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source. ","Yes, No" -"Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?","Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people, ---- -Amazon Mechanical Turk workers ---- -Redditors on /r/samplesize ---- -A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members. ---- -Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent ""the people"". -asking them -In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated? -A list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [""Year in Search""](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. -For the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun. -Whether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most ""smile"" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking, -If your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]? -If after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with ""Yes"", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?","In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. National Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) ""the moon-landing of free-soloing"" and reported: It’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye. @@ -16078,47 +16112,39 @@ As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$. What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$? Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD). ","" -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. - -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). - - - -","Yes, No" -"Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?","This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. -","Yes, No" -"Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?","This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. -","Yes, No" -"How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?","This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a ""hung jury"" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, ""0"". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.","0, 1, 2" "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No" +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" -"What will The Weeknd’s Nifty Gateway drop generate in total sales?","This is a market on what The Weeknd’s NFT drop on April 3, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on April 3, 2021, via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve 48 hours later, on April 5, 2:00 PM ET, according to data published for the entirety of The Weeknd’s drop. The bracket which resolves to “Yes” will be the one which corresponds to the total sales of The Weeknd’s NFT drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, each bracket will resolve equally to 20:20:20:20:20. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Less than $5M, $5M to less than $10M, $10M to less than $20M, $20M to less than $30M, $30M or more" -"Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?","This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. +"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","Yes, No" +"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No" +"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/. -","" -"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No" -"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" +","Yes, No" "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?","This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" -"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","Yes, No" -"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +"Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?","This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. + ","Yes, No" -"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No" +"What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?","This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). + +","49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more" +"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No" +"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No" -"Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?","This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). - -","49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more" -"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. +"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","Yes, No" +"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No" +"Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?","This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?","This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.","Yes, No" +"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. +","" +"Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?","This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Bezos, Musk" "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. @@ -16183,7 +16209,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Curtis Sliwa, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" +","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16244,21 +16270,21 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) -","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Ralph Brinkhaus, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn" +","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Ralph Brinkhaus, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn" "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ","Kirk Cox, Pete Snyder, Glenn Youngkin, Amanda Chase, Neil Chatterjee, Emmett Hanger, Bill Stanley" "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" +","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton" +","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, Jon Santiago, John Barros, A. Essaibi-George, Marty Walsh" +","Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, John Barros, Jon Santiago, Marty Walsh" "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. @@ -16294,7 +16320,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Mike Gibbons, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson" +","Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Mike Gibbons, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson" "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) @@ -16317,7 +16343,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro" +","Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro" "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16379,7 +16405,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" +","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Susan Davies, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16393,7 +16419,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Tim Ryan, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes" +","Tim Ryan, Emilia Sykes, Nan Whaley, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty" "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16423,7 +16449,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Manageme A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Sarah Bianchi, Thea Lee, Heather Boushey, Gene Sperling, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, John Jones" +","Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Heather Boushey, Thea Lee, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Sarah Bianchi, John Jones, Sonal Shah" "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16456,7 +16482,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" +","Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry, Pedro Castillo" "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. @@ -16465,7 +16491,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Bruce Harrell, Colleen Echohawk, Lance Randall, Andrew Grant Houston, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson" +","Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Andrew Grant Houston, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson" "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. @@ -16507,7 +16533,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" +","Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Richard Burr, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows" "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) @@ -16517,10 +16543,6 @@ Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End D PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ","Yes, No" -"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). -PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. -PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","38 or fewer, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44 or more" "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16550,7 +16572,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" +","Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) @@ -16558,7 +16580,7 @@ End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler" +","Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Richard Lee Watkins, Erica Smith, Heath Shuler" "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election. Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be ""Independent."" PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. @@ -16683,6 +16705,20 @@ End Date: 5/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day] PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ","Republican, Democratic" +"Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET) +","Yes, No" +"Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET) +","Yes, No" +"Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +","Ron DeSantis, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Charlie Crist" "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ","","Yes, No" "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","","Yes, No" "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","Contracts to be added on request","Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Johnny Mercer, Michael Gove, Matthew Hancock, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Baker, Ruth Davidson, Esther McVey, Philip Hammond, Rishi Sunak" @@ -16848,31 +16884,42 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, "Caithness, Sutherland and Ross","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","SNP, Liberal Democrats" "Argyll and Bute","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Argyll and Bute at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","SNP, Liberal Democrats, Conservative" "Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","SNP, Liberal Democrats" -"Labour",,"Yes, No" -"Conservatives",,"Yes, No" -"Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker",,"Yes, No" -"Reform UK",,"Yes, No" -"SDP",,"Yes, No" -"Liberal Democrats",,"Yes, No" -"Heritage Party",,"Yes, No" -"Women's Equality Party",,"Yes, No" -"UKIP",,"Yes, No" -"North East Party",,"Yes, No" -"Samantha Lee (Ind)",,"Yes, No" -"US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials",,"Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040, Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040" +"Sadiq Khan",,"Yes, No" +"Brian Rose",,"Yes, No" +"Shaun Bailey",,"Yes, No" +"Sian Berry",,"Yes, No" +"Luisa Porritt",,"Yes, No" +"Laurence Fox",,"Yes, No" +"Kam Balayev",,"Yes, No" +"David Kurten",,"Yes, No" +"Count Binface",,"Yes, No" +"Richard Hewison",,"Yes, No" +"Piers Corbyn",,"Yes, No" +"Farah London",,"Yes, No" +"Peter Gammons",,"Yes, No" +"Nims Obunge",,"Yes, No" +"Max Fosh",,"Yes, No" +"Mandu Reid",,"Yes, No" +"Drillminister",,"Yes, No" +"Valerie Brown",,"Yes, No" +"Niko Omilana",,"Yes, No" +"Steve Kelleher",,"Yes, No" +"Vanessa Hudson",,"Yes, No" +"Next Cabinet Member to leave?",,"Gavin Williamson, Matt Hancock, Alok Sharma, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace, Robert Buckland, Boris Johnson, Therese Coffey, Robert Jenrick, Liz Truss, Brandon Lewis, Alister Jack, Grant Shapps, Amanda Milling, Oliver Dowden, Simon Hart, George Eustice, Baroness Evans, Rishi Sunak, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove" "Prime Minister Betting",,"Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Liz Truss, Matthew Hancock, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage, Steve Baker, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Kemi Badenoch, Mark Harper, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Barclay, Yvette Cooper, Bim Afolami, Anneliese Dodds, Grant Shapps, Damian Hinds, Sadiq Khan, Johnny Mercer, Tobias Ellwood, Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson, Amanda Milling, Ed Davey, Angela Rayner, Ben Wallace, David Miliband, Gillian Keegan, Dan Jarvis, Hilary Benn, Caroline Lucas, Ed Miliband, John McDonnell, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Rebecca Long-Bailey, David Davis, Bridget Phillipson, Margaret Beckett, Jess Phillips, Helen Whately, Phillip Hammond, David Cameron, Esther McVey, Kit Malthouse, Ruth Davidson, Emily Thornberry, Rory Stewart, Eddie Hughes, Andrea Jenkyns, Harriet Harman, Daisy Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn, Layla Moran, Piers Morgan" +"Most Seats in General Election",,"Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Greens" +"Hartlepool By-Election Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker, Reform UK, Samantha Lee (Ind), SDP, Greens, Liberal Democrats, Heritage Party, Women's Equality Party, UKIP, North East Party" +"US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials",,"Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040, Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040" "Boris Johnson Exit Date",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later, To be Tory leader at next General Election, To NOT be Tory leader at next General Election" "Keir Starmer Exit Date",,"2023 or Earlier, 2024, 2025 or Later" "Next Permanent Labour Leader After Keir Starmer",,"Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, Rosena Allin-Khan, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Yvette Cooper, Anneliese Dodds, David Lammy, Dan Jarvis, Seema Malhotra, Jess Phillips, Rachel Reeves, James Murray, Clive Lewis, Zarah Sultana, Hilary Benn, Lousie Haigh, Shabana Mahmood, Stephen Kinnock, Jim McMahon, Stella Creasy, Emma Hardy, Bridget Phillipson, Richard Burgon, Ed Miliband, Matthew Pennycook, Lucy Powell, Dawn Butler, Alison McGovern, Janet Daby, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Jonathan Ashworth, Dan Carden, Ian Murray, Wes Streeting, Peter Kyle, David Miliband, Darren Jones, Chi Onwurah, Rosie Duffield, Diane Abbott, Nia Griffith, Jonathan Reynolds, Liz Kendall, John McDonnell, Preet Gill, Helen Hayes, Vicky Foxcroft, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Nadia Whittome, Angela Eagle, Justin Madders, Ian Lavery, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Emily Thornberry, Barry Gardiner, Jeremy Corbyn, Kate Osamor, Tony Blair" -"Next London Mayoral Election",,"Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Brian Rose, Sian Berry, Luisa Porritt, Laurence Fox, Kam Balayev, David Kurten, Count Binface, Richard Hewison, Piers Corbyn, Farah London, Peter Gammons, Nims Obunge, Max Fosh, Mandu Reid, Drillminister, Valerie Brown, Niko Omilana, Steve Kelleher, Vanessa Hudson" "Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats",,"SNP, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Greens, Reform UK" -"Most Seats in General Election",,"Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Greens" "Next Permanent Scottish First Minister",,"Angus Robertson, John Swinney, Kate Forbes, Humza Yousaf, Joanna Cherry, Keith Brown, Anas Sarwar, Douglas Ross, Mhairi Black, Michael Russell, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Ruth Davidson, Derek Mackay, Alex Salmond, Stewart Hosie, Shona Robison, Michael Matheson, Ash Denham, Jeane Freeman, Andrew Wilson, Jackson Carlaw, Peter Murrell, Willie Rennie, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, Monica Lennon, Neil Findlay, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Tommy Sheppard, Richard Leonard, Michelle Ballantyne" "French 2022 Presidential Election - Candidate With The Most Votes: 1st Round",,"Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen" "West Midlands Mayoral Election 2021",,"Andy Street (Conservative), Liam Byrne (Labour), Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem), Ashvir Sangha (Independent)" "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election 2021",,"Andy Burnham (Labour), Laura Evans (Conservative), Simon Lepori (Lib Dem), Melanie Horrocks (Green), Nick Buckley (Reform UK)" "West Yorkshire Mayoral Election 2021",,"Tracy Brabin (Labour), Matthew Robinson (Conservatives), Andrew Cooper (Green), Stewart Golton (Lib Dem), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)" -"2021 New York City Mayoral Election",,"Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Cleopatra Fitzgerald, Bill Pepitone, Abbey Laurel-Smith" +"2021 New York City Mayoral Election",,"Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Cleopatra Fitzgerald, Bill Pepitone, Abbey Laurel-Smith" "Welsh Assembly Election 2021 - Most Seats",,"Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat" "Next German Federal Election",,"Armin Laschet, Markus Soder, Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel" "Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes",,"Conservatives (H), Labour (AP), Centre Party (SP), Progress Party (FRP), Liberal Party (V), Socialist Left Party (SV), Christian Democratic Party (KRF), Green Party (MDG), Red Party (R)" diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index cbcdcdf..df393ce 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "68", - "numforecasters": "61", + "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -29,17 +29,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "40", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "46", + "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -51,32 +51,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.11220000000000001, + "probability": 0.1084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.1967, + "probability": 0.1932, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2813, + "probability": 0.2802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19649999999999998, + "probability": 0.1954, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.2133, + "probability": 0.2229, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%" }, @@ -88,17 +88,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "21", - "numforecasters": "20", + "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasters": "23", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -110,17 +110,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "19", - "numforecasters": "16", + "numforecasts": "22", + "numforecasters": "18", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -132,17 +132,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "17", - "numforecasters": "16", + "numforecasts": "19", + "numforecasters": "17", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -159,17 +159,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1274, + "probability": 0.12890000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.30670000000000003, + "probability": 0.3059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.3063, + "probability": 0.3056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -178,7 +178,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "48", "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500" @@ -191,32 +191,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 70,000", - "probability": 0.1272, + "probability": 0.12560000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.34299999999999997, + "probability": 0.33159999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", - "probability": 0.31679999999999997, + "probability": 0.3218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", - "probability": 0.1555, + "probability": 0.16519999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 130,000", - "probability": 0.0574, + "probability": 0.0558, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "83", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "88", + "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000" }, @@ -228,32 +228,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.11630000000000001, + "probability": 0.0755, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1747, + "probability": 0.171, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.4926, + "probability": 0.534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.1968, + "probability": 0.2005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.0195, + "probability": 0.019, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "31", - "numforecasters": "27", + "numforecasts": "35", + "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion" }, @@ -302,32 +302,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.050199999999999995, + "probability": 0.0512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12560000000000002, + "probability": 0.13449999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.23129999999999998, + "probability": 0.2414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3196, + "probability": 0.312, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2733, + "probability": 0.2608, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "83", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" }, @@ -339,17 +339,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "138", - "numforecasters": "108", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -370,8 +370,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", - "numforecasters": "134", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "135", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -393,21 +393,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", - "probability": 0.405, + "probability": 0.4056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion", - "probability": 0.2175, + "probability": 0.21719999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion", - "probability": 0.0725, + "probability": 0.0722, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "56", + "numforecasts": "57", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $40 billion, Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive, More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion, More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion, More than $100 billion" @@ -420,32 +420,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $13 billion", - "probability": 0.0337, + "probability": 0.0332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12369999999999999, + "probability": 0.1242, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.4183, + "probability": 0.4213, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.32130000000000003, + "probability": 0.3194, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.10300000000000001, + "probability": 0.10189999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "57", - "numforecasters": "43", + "numforecasts": "58", + "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion" }, @@ -457,32 +457,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.1943, + "probability": 0.1937, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3171, + "probability": 0.3191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.3009, + "probability": 0.2991, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.1464, + "probability": 0.1467, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0412, + "probability": 0.0414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "149", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5" }, @@ -494,32 +494,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.051, + "probability": 0.0506, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1984, + "probability": 0.19329999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.3619, + "probability": 0.35350000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2429, + "probability": 0.254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.1458, + "probability": 0.14859999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "113", - "numforecasters": "90", + "numforecasts": "115", + "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million" }, @@ -555,7 +555,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" @@ -592,7 +592,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "71", + "numforecasts": "72", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000" @@ -605,32 +605,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1264, + "probability": 0.12869999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.46130000000000004, + "probability": 0.45649999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.2834, + "probability": 0.2862, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.09910000000000001, + "probability": 0.099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000", - "probability": 0.0297, + "probability": 0.0296, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "102", + "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000" }, @@ -642,32 +642,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 0.45%", - "probability": 0.049699999999999994, + "probability": 0.0484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1778, + "probability": 0.1732, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%", - "probability": 0.28300000000000003, + "probability": 0.2768, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2289, + "probability": 0.2242, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2605, + "probability": 0.2774, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", - "numforecasters": "54", + "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.45%, Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive, More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%, More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%, More than 1.2%" }, @@ -688,7 +688,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasts": "152", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -747,8 +747,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "346", - "numforecasters": "194", + "numforecasts": "357", + "numforecasters": "196", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -760,27 +760,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0242, + "probability": 0.0223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08220000000000001, + "probability": 0.0738, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2161, + "probability": 0.21559999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6775, + "probability": 0.6883, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "244", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "249", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" }, @@ -792,17 +792,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.1177, + "probability": 0.11810000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1777, + "probability": 0.1775, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.26780000000000004, + "probability": 0.2675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -816,7 +816,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "236", + "numforecasts": "237", "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%" @@ -829,17 +829,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "197", - "numforecasters": "132", + "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -861,7 +861,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.2133, + "probability": 0.2139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -871,11 +871,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.2914, + "probability": 0.2908, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "220", + "numforecasts": "221", "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%" @@ -1181,16 +1181,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5817721518987341, + "probability": 0.581717791411043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4182278481012659, + "probability": 0.41828220858895704, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 163, "numforecasters": 70, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1258,27 +1258,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1975862068965517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8024137931034483, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1300,6 +1279,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1975862068965517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8024137931034483, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1700,43 +1700,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47382978723404257, + "probability": 0.02909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261702127659574, + "probability": 0.9709090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38967741935483874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6103225806451613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1784,44 +1763,44 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02909090909090909, + "probability": 0.47382978723404257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9709090909090909, + "probability": 0.5261702127659574, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 29, + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "probability": 0.38967741935483874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "probability": 0.6103225806451613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 28, + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1846,6 +1825,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1895,16 +1895,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8075925925925925, + "probability": 0.7983928571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19240740740740747, + "probability": 0.20160714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "numforecasters": 27, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1951,27 +1951,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4023809523809524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5976190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 42, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2035,6 +2014,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4023809523809524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5976190476190476, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2078,22 +2078,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5855882352941176, + "probability": 0.09692307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41441176470588237, + "probability": 0.9030769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2120,22 +2120,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09692307692307692, + "probability": 0.5855882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9030769230769231, + "probability": 0.41441176470588237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 34, "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2182,69 +2182,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8411111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15888888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 27, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19347826086956524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8065217391304348, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2266,6 +2203,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2309,23 +2267,44 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6084375, + "probability": 0.8411111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39156250000000004, + "probability": 0.15888888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 21, + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -2350,48 +2329,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7363999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.994090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.005909090909090975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2413,6 +2350,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7363999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2434,6 +2413,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.994090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.005909090909090975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6084375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39156250000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2455,27 +2476,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13119999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2498,43 +2498,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "probability": 0.04739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "probability": 0.9526086956521739, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2581,27 +2560,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2782857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7217142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2623,27 +2581,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34127659574468083, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6587234042553192, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2666,22 +2603,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04739130434782608, + "probability": 0.34127659574468083, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9526086956521739, + "probability": 0.6587234042553192, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2782857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7217142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2708,22 +2708,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, + "probability": 0.8838095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, + "probability": 0.11619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2896,6 +2896,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2938,27 +2959,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3085,27 +3085,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6427777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35722222222222233, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3127,48 +3106,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6434000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3565999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3190,6 +3127,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6427777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35722222222222233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3211,6 +3169,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6434000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3565999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3274,69 +3274,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08388888888888889, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9161111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3358,6 +3295,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3401,43 +3380,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982, + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3464,22 +3443,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08388888888888889, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9161111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3506,39 +3506,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "probability": 0.35526315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42222222222222217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8089473684210526, + "probability": 0.6447368421052632, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3547,48 +3526,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7770588235294117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2229411764705883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0811764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9188235294117647, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3610,6 +3547,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7770588235294117, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2229411764705883, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42222222222222217, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3631,69 +3610,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35526315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6447368421052632, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3736,6 +3652,132 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0811764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9188235294117647, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3757,27 +3799,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.118125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.881875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3800,22 +3821,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3842,18 +3884,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3862,6 +3904,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.118125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.881875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.933125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3905,18 +3989,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3926,18 +4010,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, + "probability": 0.926875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "probability": 0.073125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3946,69 +4030,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23450000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4030,27 +4051,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4073,22 +4073,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4115,64 +4115,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28214285714285714, + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7178571428571429, + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.062, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.938, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4199,43 +4157,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4262,39 +4199,123 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.111875, + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.888125, + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11733333333333333, + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8826666666666667, + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4325,64 +4346,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, + "probability": 0.05941176470588236, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "probability": 0.9405882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.111875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.888125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4409,39 +4409,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "probability": 0.11733333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.8826666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4451,22 +4430,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05941176470588236, + "probability": 0.28214285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9405882352941176, + "probability": 0.7178571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4493,44 +4472,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.106875, + "probability": 0.062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.893125, + "probability": 0.938, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -4555,48 +4513,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1469230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8530769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11076923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8892307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4639,6 +4555,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4661,18 +4598,81 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "probability": 0.1336842105263158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4703,18 +4703,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, + "probability": 0.320625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4723,216 +4723,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 36, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4446153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5553846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8146153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4955,43 +4745,106 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1336842105263158, + "probability": 0.6271428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "probability": 0.3728571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5018,85 +4871,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3830769230769231, + "probability": 0.3375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6169230769230769, + "probability": 0.6625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5123,22 +4913,400 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46692307692307694, + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.533076923076923, + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3830769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6169230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4446153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5553846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8146153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.955, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.106875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.893125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11076923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8892307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6315384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3684615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5165,18 +5333,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5207,123 +5417,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "probability": 0.013076923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4753333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "probability": 0.9869230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5332,6 +5437,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8566666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.006, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5375,39 +5522,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "probability": 0.4607142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "probability": 0.5392857142857144, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5417,43 +5543,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "probability": 0.2025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "probability": 0.7975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "probability": 0.07714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "probability": 0.9228571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5480,123 +5606,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6315384615384615, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3684615384615385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8566666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5605,27 +5626,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4607142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5392857142857144, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5668,6 +5668,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5689,6 +5731,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5753,18 +5816,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013076923076923076, + "probability": 0.46692307692307694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "probability": 0.533076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5773,132 +5836,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07714285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9228571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7927272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4307692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5692307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5921,18 +5858,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5984,22 +5921,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.23377083333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "probability": 0.7662291666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5621428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43785714285714283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6026,190 +5984,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28428571428571425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7157142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6866666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31333333333333324, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4314285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6236,18 +6026,81 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "probability": 0.140625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "probability": 0.859375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9325, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2475, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6257,22 +6110,232 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23377083333333332, + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7662291666666667, + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7783333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22166666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6299,22 +6362,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6362,18 +6446,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5557142857142857, + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6382,6 +6508,405 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7927272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6836363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6424,111 +6949,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5621428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43785714285714283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21272727272727274, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7872727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6836363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6550,468 +6970,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - 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", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. 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", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2809090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7190909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5484615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45153846153846156, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7034,333 +6992,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27785714285714286, + "probability": 0.5484615384615384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "probability": 0.45153846153846156, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24600000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.754, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.113, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.556, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44399999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8790909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.750909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24909090909090903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "probability": 0.4727272727272728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7391,18 +7055,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, + "probability": 0.198, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, + "probability": 0.802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7411,6 +7075,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8790909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7432,6 +7138,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7474,6 +7243,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7517,18 +7328,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7537,48 +7390,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17300000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21099999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7601,18 +7412,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, + "probability": 0.025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, + "probability": 0.975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7622,18 +7433,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7642,6 +7474,90 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.887, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.013636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44399999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7684,6 +7600,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7706,18 +7643,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, + "probability": 0.789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, + "probability": 0.21099999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7727,39 +7664,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "probability": 0.17300000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8908333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.827, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7789,48 +7705,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08857142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9114285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7852,27 +7726,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4309090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7894,6 +7747,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7936,6 +7810,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.217, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.783, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7957,6 +7852,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9114285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7979,8 +7895,134 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4309090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.750909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24909090909090903, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24600000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { @@ -8000,39 +8042,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.025, + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -8041,27 +8062,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Estimates for Security (Symbol)", "url": "https://www.estimize.com/symbol", @@ -12616,66 +12616,24 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21428571428571427, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "73.68% (70 out of 95) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "73.96% (71 out of 96) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7368421052631579, + "probability": 0.7395833333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26315789473684215, + "probability": 0.26041666666666663, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5294117647058824, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47058823529411764, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12683,7 +12641,7 @@ "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "33.33% (21 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12696,7 +12654,28 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "51.92% (27 out of 52) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4807692307692307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12704,20 +12683,20 @@ "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "10.47% (9 out of 86) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "10.34% (9 out of 87) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10465116279069768, + "probability": 0.10344827586206896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8953488372093024, + "probability": 0.896551724137931, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12725,41 +12704,20 @@ "title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "28.00% (14 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2857142857142857, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7142857142857143, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.30158730158730157, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6984126984126984, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12767,7 +12725,7 @@ "title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12784,11 +12742,32 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.30158730158730157, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6984126984126984, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12805,32 +12784,11 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15789473684210525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8421052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12847,11 +12805,32 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15789473684210525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8421052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12872,20 +12851,20 @@ "title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "36.00% (18 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3673469387755102, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6326530612244898, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12893,7 +12872,7 @@ "title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12910,32 +12889,11 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6363636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36363636363636365, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12952,11 +12910,32 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6363636363636364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36363636363636365, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12977,7 +12956,7 @@ "title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -12998,7 +12977,7 @@ "title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13019,20 +12998,20 @@ "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "37.50% (3 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.375, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.625, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 8, + "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13040,7 +13019,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13053,7 +13032,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13061,20 +13040,20 @@ "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "27.27% (3 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "30.77% (4 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2727272727272727, + "probability": 0.3076923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7272727272727273, + "probability": 0.6923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13082,7 +13061,7 @@ "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13103,7 +13082,7 @@ "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13124,20 +13103,20 @@ "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "80.00% (8 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "81.82% (9 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.8181818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18181818181818177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13145,41 +13124,20 @@ "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "42.86% (3 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "50.00% (4 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42857142857142855, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5714285714285714, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 7, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 4, + "numforecasts": 8, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13187,7 +13145,7 @@ "title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13204,11 +13162,32 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13229,7 +13208,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13250,7 +13229,7 @@ "title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13267,32 +13246,32 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 2, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 2, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13313,7 +13292,7 @@ "title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13326,7 +13305,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 2, + "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13334,7 +13313,7 @@ "title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13355,7 +13334,7 @@ "title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13376,7 +13355,7 @@ "title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13397,7 +13376,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13418,7 +13397,7 @@ "title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13439,7 +13418,7 @@ "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13460,7 +13439,7 @@ "title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13481,7 +13460,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13502,20 +13481,20 @@ "title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "27.78% (5 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3125, + "probability": 0.2777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6875, + "probability": 0.7222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13523,7 +13502,7 @@ "title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13544,7 +13523,28 @@ "title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8571428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13565,7 +13565,7 @@ "title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13582,32 +13582,11 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16666666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/trump-v-sierra-club/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13628,41 +13607,20 @@ "title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-dai/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "35.29% (6 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.375, + "probability": 0.35294117647058826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.625, + "probability": 0.6470588235294117, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13670,7 +13628,7 @@ "title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-association-of-broadcasters-v-prometheus-radio-project/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13687,11 +13645,32 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wolf-v-innovation-law-lab/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13712,7 +13691,7 @@ "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 22) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13725,7 +13704,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13733,20 +13712,20 @@ "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", + "description": "3.57% (1 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.9642857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18293,6 +18272,36 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, to less than $10.00", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, to less than $10.00, Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00, Yes, to $15.00 or more, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", @@ -18311,7 +18320,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18321,73 +18330,18 @@ }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%" }, - { - "title": "What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 21 million barrels per day", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 30 million barrels per day", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 21 million barrels per day, Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day, Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 30 million barrels per day" - }, - { - "title": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory \"carbon pricing mechanism\" become law before 1 January 2023?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a \"carbon pricing mechanism\" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System, the California Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.", + "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", @@ -18418,10 +18372,46 @@ "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" }, + { + "title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 March 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 September 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021" + }, { "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 April 2021", @@ -18452,130 +18442,6 @@ "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" }, - { - "title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 March 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021" - }, - { - "title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column \"2021 Traveler Throughput\" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" - }, - { - "title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "options": [ - { - "name": "10% or less", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 30%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" - }, - { - "title": "What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Games will be postponed again by more than a day", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Games will begin, The Games will be postponed again by more than a day, The Games will be cancelled" - }, { "title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", @@ -18605,7 +18471,7 @@ "title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.", + "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.", "options": [ { "name": "Lower by more than 8%", @@ -18619,12 +18485,12 @@ }, { "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18709,12 +18575,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18734,17 +18600,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "46", - "numforecasters": "40", + "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18752,21 +18618,21 @@ "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021:  Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "56", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "94", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18778,17 +18644,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "30", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "43", + "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18800,17 +18666,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", - "numforecasters": "137", + "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasters": "143", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18831,8 +18697,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "100", - "numforecasters": "77", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18844,22 +18710,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18868,8 +18734,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else" }, @@ -18891,17 +18757,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$180 billion or more", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "53", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasters": "40", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more" }, @@ -18918,17 +18784,17 @@ }, { "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "88", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -18950,7 +18816,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18960,12 +18826,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 130.0", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "60", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "63", + "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0" }, @@ -18982,27 +18848,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3.1%", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "132", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%" }, @@ -19024,22 +18890,22 @@ }, { "name": "Mank", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19058,8 +18924,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "119", - "numforecasters": "77", + "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome" }, @@ -19100,7 +18966,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasts": "90", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome" @@ -19113,17 +18979,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "145", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19145,22 +19011,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", - "numforecasters": "159", + "numforecasts": "329", + "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million" }, @@ -19172,7 +19038,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19182,7 +19048,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19197,12 +19063,12 @@ }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "133", - "numforecasters": "91", + "numforecasts": "145", + "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" }, @@ -19214,17 +19080,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "130", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "137", + "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19236,7 +19102,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19246,12 +19112,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19261,11 +19127,11 @@ }, { "name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", + "numforecasts": "87", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021" @@ -19283,22 +19149,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", - "numforecasters": "111", + "numforecasts": "206", + "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -19310,17 +19176,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "77", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19332,12 +19198,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19361,8 +19227,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "241", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" }, @@ -19383,8 +19249,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "169", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "171", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19396,12 +19262,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19410,8 +19276,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", - "numforecasters": "46", + "numforecasts": "91", + "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more" }, @@ -19432,8 +19298,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "593", - "numforecasters": "401", + "numforecasts": "618", + "numforecasters": "410", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19450,7 +19316,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19460,7 +19326,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19469,8 +19335,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "456", - "numforecasters": "285", + "numforecasts": "470", + "numforecasters": "289", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -19491,8 +19357,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "474", - "numforecasters": "378", + "numforecasts": "493", + "numforecasters": "384", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19504,17 +19370,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19531,17 +19397,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19550,8 +19416,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "350", - "numforecasters": "216", + "numforecasts": "365", + "numforecasters": "223", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -19568,17 +19434,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19587,8 +19453,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", - "numforecasters": "32", + "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" }, @@ -19600,17 +19466,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19624,8 +19490,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "231", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "239", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" }, @@ -19647,12 +19513,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19661,7 +19527,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasts": "197", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" @@ -19688,7 +19554,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "154", + "numforecasts": "156", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" @@ -19701,7 +19567,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19711,12 +19577,12 @@ }, { "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "632", - "numforecasters": "384", + "numforecasts": "653", + "numforecasters": "390", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -19737,7 +19603,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasts": "99", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19750,16 +19616,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "222", + "numforecasts": "230", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19772,17 +19638,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "256", - "numforecasters": "83", + "numforecasts": "266", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19803,8 +19669,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "100", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasters": "56", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19816,17 +19682,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "295", - "numforecasters": "130", + "numforecasts": "299", + "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19847,8 +19713,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "208", - "numforecasters": "151", + "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19856,7 +19722,7 @@ "title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only SpaceX", @@ -19879,7 +19745,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasts": "202", "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" @@ -19901,8 +19767,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "186", - "numforecasters": "94", + "numforecasts": "189", + "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19929,12 +19795,12 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19943,7 +19809,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "164", + "numforecasts": "169", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" @@ -19956,16 +19822,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasts": "177", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19987,8 +19853,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "129", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20009,7 +19875,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "335", + "numforecasts": "339", "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20041,8 +19907,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", - "numforecasters": "151", + "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -20059,12 +19925,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20078,8 +19944,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "185", - "numforecasters": "84", + "numforecasts": "189", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" }, @@ -20091,17 +19957,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "111", - "numforecasters": "63", + "numforecasts": "115", + "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20140,16 +20006,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "253", + "numforecasts": "257", "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20171,7 +20037,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasts": "176", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20180,7 +20046,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4b28272a39222d22282a3f222425380b2c24242f213e2f2c262e253f6528242674383e29212e283f761a3e2e383f2224256e797b08272a39222d22282a3f222425). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0d6e616c7f646b646e6c796462637e4d6a6262696778696a60686379236e6260327e786f67686e79305c78687e79646263283f3d4e616c7f646b646e6c79646263). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -20193,7 +20059,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", + "numforecasts": "428", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20216,12 +20082,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20230,7 +20096,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasts": "500", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -20252,7 +20118,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasts": "177", "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20274,7 +20140,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "344", + "numforecasts": "349", "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20296,7 +20162,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasts": "96", "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20309,7 +20175,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20319,7 +20185,7 @@ }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20328,7 +20194,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasts": "209", "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" @@ -20355,8 +20221,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasters": "40", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No" }, @@ -20368,21 +20234,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" @@ -20395,16 +20261,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasts": "123", "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20441,7 +20307,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "266", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" @@ -20463,7 +20329,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasts": "202", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20490,8 +20356,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", - "numforecasters": "74", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No" }, @@ -20512,7 +20378,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "305", + "numforecasts": "307", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20534,7 +20400,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "278", + "numforecasts": "282", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20583,7 +20449,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasts": "201", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -20596,7 +20462,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20606,11 +20472,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", + "numforecasts": "217", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" @@ -20628,12 +20494,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20647,7 +20513,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "307", + "numforecasts": "310", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -20669,7 +20535,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "237", + "numforecasts": "239", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20696,8 +20562,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "129", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -20731,16 +20597,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20758,16 +20624,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "511", + "numforecasts": "521", "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" @@ -20785,7 +20651,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only by the EMA", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20795,12 +20661,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "469", - "numforecasters": "219", + "numforecasts": "479", + "numforecasters": "220", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" }, @@ -20821,7 +20687,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "289", + "numforecasts": "291", "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20843,8 +20709,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "386", - "numforecasters": "230", + "numforecasts": "394", + "numforecasters": "231", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20865,43 +20731,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "316", - "numforecasters": "105", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, only Michael Spavor", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "371", - "numforecasters": "105", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" - }, { "title": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022", @@ -20919,8 +20753,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", - "numforecasters": "127", + "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20942,12 +20776,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20956,7 +20790,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "290", + "numforecasts": "298", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" @@ -20978,7 +20812,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasts": "91", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21000,8 +20834,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "426", - "numforecasters": "216", + "numforecasts": "432", + "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21013,16 +20847,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "121", + "numforecasts": "123", "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21035,16 +20869,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", + "numforecasts": "97", "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21081,7 +20915,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "302", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50" @@ -21113,7 +20947,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasts": "149", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No" @@ -21126,7 +20960,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21141,7 +20975,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21155,7 +20989,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" @@ -21177,8 +21011,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "660", - "numforecasters": "213", + "numforecasts": "671", + "numforecasters": "215", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21190,22 +21024,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21214,8 +21048,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "594", - "numforecasters": "259", + "numforecasts": "603", + "numforecasters": "260", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" }, @@ -21237,16 +21071,16 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "550", + "numforecasts": "567", "numforecasters": "223", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" @@ -21268,7 +21102,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "376", + "numforecasts": "379", "numforecasters": "213", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21290,7 +21124,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "246", + "numforecasts": "248", "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21312,7 +21146,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "348", + "numforecasts": "354", "numforecasters": "189", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21334,8 +21168,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "357", - "numforecasters": "171", + "numforecasts": "363", + "numforecasters": "172", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21362,16 +21196,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "369", + "numforecasts": "384", "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -21393,8 +21227,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "258", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "263", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21415,8 +21249,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "343", - "numforecasters": "177", + "numforecasts": "347", + "numforecasters": "179", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21437,7 +21271,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasts": "282", "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21474,8 +21308,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1544", - "numforecasters": "230", + "numforecasts": "1562", + "numforecasters": "237", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" }, @@ -21496,8 +21330,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "324", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "331", + "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21518,7 +21352,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", + "numforecasts": "216", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21577,7 +21411,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21614,8 +21448,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "605", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "610", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" }, @@ -21636,7 +21470,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "809", + "numforecasts": "813", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21649,17 +21483,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21673,8 +21507,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "560", - "numforecasters": "246", + "numforecasts": "574", + "numforecasters": "249", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -21710,7 +21544,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "531", + "numforecasts": "537", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -21732,7 +21566,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "221", + "numforecasts": "223", "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21754,8 +21588,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "435", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "438", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21767,17 +21601,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21801,7 +21635,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "403", + "numforecasts": "416", "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" @@ -21838,7 +21672,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "725", + "numforecasts": "730", "numforecasters": "210", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" @@ -21860,8 +21694,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1218", - "numforecasters": "465", + "numforecasts": "1236", + "numforecasters": "466", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21882,7 +21716,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "399", + "numforecasts": "401", "numforecasters": "164", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21926,8 +21760,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "765", - "numforecasters": "169", + "numforecasts": "769", + "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21949,12 +21783,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21963,33 +21797,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "927", - "numforecasters": "170", + "numforecasts": "937", + "numforecasters": "171", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" }, - { - "title": "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "214", - "numforecasters": "80", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional", @@ -22007,7 +21819,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "333", + "numforecasts": "338", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22020,16 +21832,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "678", + "numforecasts": "684", "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22066,7 +21878,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "486", + "numforecasts": "487", "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more" @@ -22079,12 +21891,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 25,000", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22103,7 +21915,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "389", + "numforecasts": "391", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000" @@ -22116,7 +21928,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22126,16 +21938,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "327", + "numforecasts": "330", "numforecasters": "113", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" @@ -22172,7 +21984,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasts": "295", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more" @@ -22204,8 +22016,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "940", - "numforecasters": "328", + "numforecasts": "956", + "numforecasters": "333", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -22248,8 +22060,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "691", - "numforecasters": "146", + "numforecasts": "694", + "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22308,16 +22120,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "60", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million" @@ -22354,7 +22166,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasts": "246", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500" @@ -22377,17 +22189,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2356", - "numforecasters": "955", + "numforecasts": "2390", + "numforecasters": "966", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -22431,21 +22243,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2,200,000", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "311", + "numforecasts": "314", "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000" @@ -22514,7 +22326,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "406", + "numforecasts": "407", "numforecasters": "224", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" @@ -22746,57 +22558,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5490196078431372, + "probability": 0.548076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.1764705882352941, + "probability": 0.14423076923076925, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22886,12 +22698,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22931,27 +22743,27 @@ }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.010101010101010102, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.0707070707070707, + "probability": 0.15841584158415842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.2727272727272727, + "probability": 0.2178217821782178, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.6464646464646465, + "probability": 0.6039603960396039, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22966,27 +22778,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.010204081632653062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.653061224489796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.20408163265306123, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.06122448979591837, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07142857142857144, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23231,17 +23043,17 @@ }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.26262626262626265, + "probability": 0.29292929292929293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.4242424242424243, + "probability": 0.4141414141414142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.18181818181818182, + "probability": 0.16161616161616163, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23261,17 +23073,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.7920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another Likud politician", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another politician not from Likud", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19801980198019803, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23286,17 +23098,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2277227722772277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.4752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23356,22 +23168,22 @@ }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.4095238095238095, + "probability": 0.3092783505154639, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.17142857142857143, + "probability": 0.18556701030927833, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, + "probability": 0.19587628865979378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.23809523809523805, + "probability": 0.3092783505154639, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23386,22 +23198,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.6990291262135923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2621359223300971, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.02912621359223301, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23416,22 +23228,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9207920792079207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.0594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23506,12 +23318,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9313725490196079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06862745098039215, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23601,427 +23413,427 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.07859141097452663, + "probability": 0.077973456957633, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jnr", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.010557055205533428, + "probability": 0.010474046456995477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.03368203327479713, + "probability": 0.03341719583898557, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.010557055205533428, + "probability": 0.010474046456995477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.041607217574749396, + "probability": 0.04128006544815865, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Oprah Winfrey", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Clooney", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dwayne Johnson", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Zuckerberg", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.14146453975414797, + "probability": 0.1403522225237394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kanye West", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tulsi Gabbard", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Meghan Markle", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Gaetz", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.15718282194905325, + "probability": 0.155946913915266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Bloomberg", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Gates", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Rogan", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.03368203327479713, + "probability": 0.04128006544815865, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Kennedy Iii", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Baker", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Beto O'Rourke", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.013869072524916466, + "probability": 0.013760021816052882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.010557055205533428, + "probability": 0.010474046456995477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Klobuchar", - "probability": 0.007003195037334057, + "probability": 0.0069481298279078915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.003519018401844476, + "probability": 0.0034913488189984927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stacey Abrams", - 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"probability": 0.4992583558898448, + "probability": 0.48329958441237414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.1741856930549014, + "probability": 0.20177757649216618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", - "probability": 0.03732550565462173, + "probability": 0.031042704075717877, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.03732550565462173, + "probability": 0.023738538410843082, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", - "probability": 0.015369325857785419, + "probability": 0.015825692273895388, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": 0.023053988786678126, + "probability": 0.015825692273895388, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benoit Hamon", - "probability": 0.015369325857785419, + "probability": 0.007991191148204601, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Nicolas Sarkozy, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Marion Marechal, Ségolène Royal, Valerie Pecresse, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Anne Hidalgo, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Benoit Hamon" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Nicolas Sarkozy, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Marion Marechal, Ségolène Royal, Valerie Pecresse, Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Anne Hidalgo, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Benoit Hamon" }, { "title": "2022 Texas Gubernatorial Election: To Win", @@ -24662,47 +24479,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - 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"probability": 0.0017674307206951064, + "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "North East Party", - "probability": 0.004405387020240042, + "probability": 0.004391662155117115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Lee (Ind)", - "probability": 0.00876715634721038, + "probability": 0.008739842506718219, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)", - "probability": 0.026043611502007305, + "probability": 0.017308315552520392, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.004405387020240042, + "probability": 0.004391662155117115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Gaines (Ind)", + "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP), Greens" - }, - { - "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share", - "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", - "platform": "Ladbrokes", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Under 5%", - "probability": 0.5772727913500711, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5-10%", - "probability": 0.278867163821419, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "10-20%", - "probability": 0.10070203137995686, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Over 20%", - "probability": 0.04315801344855294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, Over 20%" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP), Greens, Adam Gaines (Ind)" }, { "title": "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win", @@ -25792,32 +25585,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.05137182005083978, + "probability": 0.050869852455406296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.017123940016946594, + "probability": 0.016956617485135432, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.3684898484659393, + "probability": 0.3843499963297365, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.3175712512233732, + "probability": 0.314468178815239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.1940713201920614, + "probability": 0.19217499816486824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.05137182005083978, + "probability": 0.04118035674961462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25831,12 +25624,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", - "probability": 0.8143322475570033, + "probability": 0.783001808318264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Niko Omilana (Ind)", - "probability": 0.18566775244299674, + "probability": 0.21699819168173598, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25868,7 +25661,7 @@ "platform": "Ladbrokes", "options": [ { - "name": "Peter Gammons (IUKIP)", + "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", "probability": 0.6626506024096386, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -25879,7 +25672,46 @@ } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Peter Gammons (IUKIP), Laurence Fox (Reclaim)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Peter Gammons (UKIP), Laurence Fox (Reclaim)" + }, + { + "title": "London Mayoral Election: Shaun Bailey 1st Round Vote Share", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", + "platform": "Ladbrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 20%", + "probability": 0.05009633911368015, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20-25%", + "probability": 0.34065510597302506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "25-30%", + "probability": 0.34065510597302506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30-35%", + "probability": 0.17032755298651253, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "35-40%", + "probability": 0.06551059730250482, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Over 40%", + "probability": 0.03275529865125241, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 20%, 20-25%, 25-30%, 30-35%, 35-40%, Over 40%" }, { "title": "Boris Johnson: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)", @@ -25960,12 +25792,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour Majority", - "probability": 0.21699819168173598, + "probability": 0.2063492063492063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "NO Labour Majority", - "probability": 0.783001808318264, + "probability": 0.7936507936507936, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26323,12 +26155,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5483028720626633, + "probability": 0.5263157894736842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.4516971279373368, + "probability": 0.47368421052631576, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26342,32 +26174,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.02671114419163361, + "probability": 0.026753318650329982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.40363506778468566, + "probability": 0.38380288359123177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.5249589031881751, + "probability": 0.5446783437791733, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.008991870321936067, + "probability": 0.009006067664467519, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.008991870321936067, + "probability": 0.009006067664467519, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alba", - "probability": 0.02671114419163361, + "probability": 0.026753318650329982, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26381,32 +26213,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 40%", - "probability": 0.09893163695794975, + "probability": 0.09780897699444167, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40-45%", - "probability": 0.3237762664078356, + "probability": 0.3201021065272637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45-50%", - "probability": 0.35615389304861916, + "probability": 0.37142649491560126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50-55%", - "probability": 0.17807694652430958, + "probability": 0.17605615858999504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55-60%", - "probability": 0.034245566639290306, + "probability": 0.02589061155735221, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 60%", - "probability": 0.008815690421995523, + "probability": 0.008715651415346288, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26420,12 +26252,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7619047619047619, + "probability": 0.783001808318264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23809523809523808, + "probability": 0.21699819168173598, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26910,22 +26742,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street (Cons)", - "probability": 0.6997822270433548, + "probability": 0.7221490340550945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenny Wilkinson (LD)", - "probability": 0.009214954078887743, + "probability": 0.009151987758321989, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne (Lab)", - "probability": 0.2863724190669729, + "probability": 0.26410021816872026, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ashvir Sangha (Ind)", - "probability": 0.004630399810784388, + "probability": 0.0045987600178632885, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27331,6 +27163,22 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/", @@ -27348,34 +27196,72 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/", + "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", - "numforecasts": 212, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", - "numforecasts": 492, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27395,6 +27281,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/", @@ -27412,90 +27325,247 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", + "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 526, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock?\nWill Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.\nLocal elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.\nThis question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.\nResolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. \n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "numforecasts": 326, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", @@ -27514,56 +27584,83 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 190, + "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 149, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -27584,36 +27681,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 549, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 186, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "numforecasts": 172, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", @@ -27632,7 +27778,7 @@ } ], "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", @@ -27642,13 +27788,56 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -27658,6 +27847,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 279, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/", @@ -27675,29 +27891,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -27728,6 +27960,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", + "numforecasts": 98, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", @@ -27745,7 +28004,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -27772,7 +28031,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 634, + "numforecasts": 638, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -27783,29 +28042,83 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", + "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", - "numforecasts": 207, + "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", + "numforecasts": 297, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 259, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 732, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -27852,6 +28165,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 67, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:54:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", @@ -27869,7 +28225,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 376, + "numforecasts": 377, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -27896,7 +28252,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -27922,6 +28278,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 117, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/", @@ -27955,50 +28365,142 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 185, + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/", + "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "numforecasts": 273, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n", + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/", + "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28029,6 +28531,54 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6979/starship-survives-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX has had four flights where prototypes of their Starship vehicle have gone above 10 km, each time resulting in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly- on landing for SN8 and SN9, 8 minutes after landing in the case of SN10, and SN11 in midair.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?\nThis question resolves to the time that an upper stage vehicle made by SpaceX, representative of a vehicle that SpaceX officials expect to bring humans to Mars, flies to a height of at least 10 km, and remains continuously intact for at least 24 hours after making contact with the Earth after flight. If the ship experiences an RUD or has more than 15% of the mass of its main body no longer connected to the main body within 24 hours of landing, that flight will not trigger resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T02:07:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 185, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/", @@ -28062,7 +28612,7 @@ } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 702, + "numforecasts": 709, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -28089,62 +28639,8 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 743, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { @@ -28158,73 +28654,30 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", - "numforecasts": 391, + "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", + "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28255,13 +28708,239 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", + "numforecasts": 747, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", + "numforecasts": 362, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", + "numforecasts": 186, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -28272,75 +28951,193 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 260, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", + "numforecasts": 212, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z" + "close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", + "numforecasts": 231, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n", + "numforecasts": 131, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 190, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", @@ -28358,7 +29155,7 @@ } ], "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -28369,48 +29166,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/", @@ -28428,61 +29198,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28546,72 +29300,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/", + "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", - "numforecasts": 132, + "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", + "numforecasts": 207, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28669,13 +29380,405 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", + "numforecasts": 273, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "numforecasts": 393, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 190, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", + "numforecasts": 130, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 261, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", + "numforecasts": 521, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "numforecasts": 880, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "numforecasts": 102, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", + "numforecasts": 132, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 185, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", @@ -28685,6 +29788,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "numforecasts": 154, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/", @@ -28729,99 +29848,77 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", - "numforecasts": 331, + "options": [], + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", - "numforecasts": 361, + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 880, + "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", + "numforecasts": 279, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28842,7 +29939,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 112, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", @@ -28852,22 +29949,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", @@ -28885,7 +29966,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", @@ -28896,123 +29977,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 112, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/", @@ -29046,20 +30025,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", @@ -29152,6 +30142,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 345, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/", @@ -29159,17 +30165,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n", - "numforecasts": 241, + "numforecasts": 243, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -29180,31 +30186,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 592, + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 242, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", @@ -29222,6 +30233,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", @@ -29239,39 +30293,55 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -29281,6 +30351,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 165, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", @@ -29325,20 +30438,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", @@ -29347,17 +30471,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", @@ -29384,28 +30508,55 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", - "numforecasts": 521, + "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 78, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", @@ -29416,29 +30567,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "numforecasts": 122, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -29469,6 +30652,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", @@ -29497,48 +30707,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", + "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", @@ -29555,22 +30749,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 336, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/", @@ -29588,64 +30766,166 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 345, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 321, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 339, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", + "numforecasts": 116, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", + "numforecasts": 113, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "numforecasts": 136, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", @@ -29663,7 +30943,7 @@ } ], "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 385, + "numforecasts": 386, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", @@ -29674,32 +30954,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 50, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/", @@ -29717,47 +31029,74 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", @@ -29776,31 +31115,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", + "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "options": [], + "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n", + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?", @@ -29808,7 +31152,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -29818,6 +31162,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", @@ -29834,6 +31205,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 375, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", @@ -29850,13 +31264,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -29883,7 +31313,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 156, + "numforecasts": 157, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -29894,20 +31324,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", @@ -29915,7 +31356,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -29952,6 +31393,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", + "numforecasts": 241, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", @@ -29968,22 +31425,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -30012,31 +31453,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", @@ -30066,29 +31496,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", + "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30108,33 +31538,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", - "numforecasts": 93, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", @@ -30151,6 +31554,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", @@ -30168,75 +31587,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", - "numforecasts": 104, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -30253,6 +31618,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", @@ -30270,7 +31651,7 @@ } ], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 297, + "numforecasts": 304, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", @@ -30339,6 +31720,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -30366,6 +31763,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", @@ -30383,7 +31796,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -30393,22 +31806,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/", @@ -30425,33 +31822,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 124, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/", @@ -30469,18 +31839,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30490,7 +31876,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -30501,45 +31887,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 471, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30560,7 +31946,7 @@ } ], "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 234, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -30571,32 +31957,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 467, + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 331, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "World Population in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", + "numforecasts": 319, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", @@ -30657,29 +32059,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", + "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 319, + "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n", + "numforecasts": 183, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30700,48 +32102,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", + "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/", @@ -30759,7 +32145,7 @@ } ], "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -30769,33 +32155,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/", @@ -30828,6 +32187,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", @@ -30845,7 +32220,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 413, + "numforecasts": 415, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -30915,29 +32290,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "numforecasts": 333, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30948,17 +32323,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 403, + "numforecasts": 406, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", @@ -30974,7 +32349,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -30984,49 +32359,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 174, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", @@ -31076,7 +32408,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", @@ -31086,13 +32418,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 185, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z", @@ -31102,22 +32461,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/", @@ -31135,64 +32478,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", + "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", - "numforecasts": 112, + "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/", @@ -31210,7 +32521,7 @@ } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1074, + "numforecasts": 1075, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -31220,49 +32531,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 136, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", - "numforecasts": 145, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", @@ -31279,13 +32547,83 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 179, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", + "numforecasts": 146, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 52, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -31322,33 +32660,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -31366,7 +32677,7 @@ } ], "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", @@ -31408,61 +32719,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 482, + "numforecasts": 484, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -31473,18 +32736,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/", + "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -31504,38 +32783,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 122, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", @@ -31568,22 +32815,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", @@ -31611,13 +32842,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -31627,38 +32874,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", - "numforecasts": 169, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 128, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/", @@ -31676,58 +32891,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "options": [], + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 115, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?", @@ -31761,29 +32938,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -31858,20 +33019,58 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", @@ -31905,114 +33104,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "numforecasts": 178, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 184, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", @@ -32030,7 +33121,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -32040,33 +33131,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", @@ -32110,13 +33174,45 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 280, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6928/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2031\".\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", @@ -32126,22 +33222,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", @@ -32185,49 +33265,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -32283,64 +33320,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", + "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", - "numforecasts": 116, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -32368,49 +33362,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", @@ -32454,22 +33405,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/", @@ -32530,29 +33465,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", + "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 325, + "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32583,22 +33518,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", @@ -32615,49 +33534,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", - "numforecasts": 88, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", @@ -32717,22 +33593,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", @@ -32765,33 +33625,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", @@ -32867,33 +33700,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 51, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", @@ -32911,7 +33717,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 143, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", @@ -32922,18 +33728,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", + "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", + "numforecasts": 268, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-04-29T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-11T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -32954,104 +33803,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", + "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", - "numforecasts": 267, + "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-04-29T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-11T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33071,76 +33845,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 277, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/", @@ -33157,33 +33861,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 374, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -33227,33 +33904,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/", @@ -33270,49 +33920,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/", @@ -33356,49 +33963,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 184, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", @@ -33442,49 +34006,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 182, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", @@ -33502,7 +34023,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", @@ -33544,22 +34065,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/", @@ -33593,31 +34098,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-by-2025/", + "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "options": [], + "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", + "numforecasts": 403, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", @@ -33625,7 +34119,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 395, + "numforecasts": 399, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -33652,7 +34146,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 226, + "numforecasts": 227, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", @@ -33695,98 +34189,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 125, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -33807,18 +34221,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -33839,7 +34253,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -33849,6 +34263,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", @@ -33892,6 +34322,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n", + "numforecasts": 52, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", @@ -33909,7 +34366,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 320, + "numforecasts": 323, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -33919,22 +34376,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 201, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/", @@ -33968,7 +34409,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", @@ -33978,22 +34419,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "World Population in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", - "numforecasts": 317, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/", @@ -34011,18 +34436,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -34043,7 +34468,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 577, + "numforecasts": 580, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", @@ -34053,49 +34478,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 212, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 138, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", @@ -34129,36 +34511,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 278, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", @@ -34203,6 +34580,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 100, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", @@ -34487,38 +34880,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", @@ -34547,31 +34908,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", + "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "options": [], + "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", @@ -34590,7 +34956,7 @@ } ], "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 598, + "numforecasts": 600, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -34617,7 +34983,7 @@ } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 286, + "numforecasts": 288, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -34627,6 +34993,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", @@ -34670,22 +35052,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n", - "numforecasts": 20, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/", @@ -34730,7 +35096,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", @@ -34740,22 +35106,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", - "numforecasts": 246, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/", @@ -34772,33 +35122,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", @@ -34858,22 +35181,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", - "numforecasts": 403, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", @@ -34960,29 +35267,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", - "numforecasts": 239, + "numforecasts": 251, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -34992,6 +35283,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/", @@ -35056,33 +35374,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -35154,48 +35445,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", + "numforecasts": 115, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 164, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", @@ -35213,7 +35488,7 @@ } ], "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -35224,61 +35499,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/", + "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 239, + "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", + "numforecasts": 248, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -35309,22 +35557,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -35341,6 +35573,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", @@ -35368,22 +35616,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", @@ -35432,45 +35664,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 285, + "numforecasts": 290, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -35481,32 +35681,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", + "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 101, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", @@ -35534,49 +35766,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/", @@ -35584,17 +35773,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", @@ -35621,18 +35810,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", + "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -35653,7 +35842,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", @@ -35680,7 +35869,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1174, + "numforecasts": 1176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -35690,22 +35879,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/", @@ -35722,6 +35895,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", + "numforecasts": 218, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", @@ -35739,7 +35928,7 @@ } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2875, + "numforecasts": 2884, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", @@ -35766,83 +35955,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1298, + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 210, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 525, + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 126, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 284, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35863,7 +36014,7 @@ } ], "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -35873,6 +36024,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", + "numforecasts": 288, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/", @@ -35905,6 +36083,76 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "numforecasts": 283, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", @@ -35938,18 +36186,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -35959,7 +36207,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -35969,22 +36217,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -36034,7 +36266,7 @@ } ], "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -36061,7 +36293,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -36114,6 +36346,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \nThe preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n...\nAstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\nAround the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\nThey soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\nWill AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 202, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T17:40:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 164, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -36131,20 +36406,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", + "numforecasts": 884, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?", @@ -36162,13 +36448,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1329, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z", @@ -36184,7 +36497,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -36195,85 +36508,47 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1377, + "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 546, + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 258, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?", @@ -36307,6 +36582,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 188, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", @@ -36356,7 +36658,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -36366,6 +36668,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", @@ -36383,7 +36712,7 @@ } ], "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", @@ -36426,7 +36755,7 @@ } ], "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, + "numforecasts": 195, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -36479,6 +36808,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", @@ -36495,6 +36840,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/", @@ -36512,7 +36873,7 @@ } ], "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -36529,17 +36890,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 296, + "numforecasts": 311, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -36549,6 +36910,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 164, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", @@ -36592,6 +36969,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", @@ -36625,7 +37018,7 @@ } ], "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, + "numforecasts": 189, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", @@ -36635,6 +37028,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", @@ -36651,22 +37060,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", @@ -36710,6 +37103,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/", @@ -36742,13 +37151,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -36758,6 +37183,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", @@ -36791,7 +37243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -36817,6 +37269,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/", @@ -36844,22 +37312,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/", @@ -36904,29 +37356,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "numforecasts": 880, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 573, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -36947,7 +37399,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -36984,6 +37436,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 226, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", @@ -37011,33 +37490,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 225, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/", @@ -37152,7 +37604,7 @@ } ], "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z", @@ -37194,33 +37646,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "numforecasts": 305, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", @@ -37238,7 +37663,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", - "numforecasts": 259, + "numforecasts": 260, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -37248,6 +37673,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", + "numforecasts": 306, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", @@ -37302,13 +37754,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1382, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 119, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -37318,13 +37797,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", + "numforecasts": 497, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -37351,7 +37846,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 359, + "numforecasts": 361, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -37367,7 +37862,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -37421,18 +37916,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-06T18:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -37442,7 +37937,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -37458,7 +37953,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -37517,7 +38012,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -37587,7 +38082,7 @@ } ], "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", @@ -37597,6 +38092,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -37629,33 +38140,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 730, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", @@ -37672,6 +38156,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/", @@ -37688,33 +38188,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\nFormer White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\nThe charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\nThe indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\nThe official charges are as follows:\n1-- \nBRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n2-- \nThose representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\nWill Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?\n---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). \n---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 329, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/", @@ -37747,6 +38220,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\nFormer White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\nThe charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\nThe indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\nThe official charges are as follows:\n1-- \nBRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n2-- \nThose representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\nWill Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?\n---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). \n---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. \n", + "numforecasts": 330, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -37779,33 +38279,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/", @@ -37839,20 +38312,58 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 599, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?", @@ -37860,7 +38371,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -37935,7 +38446,7 @@ } ], "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", @@ -38075,7 +38586,7 @@ } ], "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", @@ -38118,7 +38629,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", @@ -38192,6 +38703,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/", @@ -38208,22 +38735,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/", @@ -38246,7 +38757,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -38315,33 +38826,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 93, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", @@ -38359,7 +38843,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 190, + "numforecasts": 192, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", @@ -38369,6 +38853,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -38386,7 +38897,7 @@ } ], "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "numforecasts": 256, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -38396,33 +38907,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 548, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -38440,7 +38924,7 @@ } ], "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -38494,7 +38978,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -38574,22 +39058,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", @@ -38666,7 +39134,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 218, + "numforecasts": 219, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", @@ -38698,7 +39166,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", @@ -38843,7 +39311,7 @@ } ], "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -38902,7 +39370,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -38945,7 +39413,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -38988,7 +39456,7 @@ } ], "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 505, + "numforecasts": 506, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", @@ -39015,7 +39483,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -39032,17 +39500,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", @@ -39090,7 +39558,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -39117,7 +39585,7 @@ } ], "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 207, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -39144,7 +39612,7 @@ } ], "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -39171,7 +39639,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -39203,7 +39671,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -39235,7 +39703,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-13T22:00:00Z", @@ -39268,17 +39736,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -39380,7 +39848,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1265, + "numforecasts": 1268, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", @@ -39488,7 +39956,7 @@ } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 272, + "numforecasts": 273, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -39504,7 +39972,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", @@ -39530,33 +39998,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "numforecasts": 157, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", @@ -39574,7 +40015,7 @@ } ], "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 324, + "numforecasts": 325, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", @@ -39584,6 +40025,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", + "numforecasts": 158, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/", @@ -39611,22 +40079,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", @@ -39644,7 +40096,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 198, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -39654,6 +40106,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", @@ -39687,7 +40155,7 @@ } ], "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 212, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -39831,7 +40299,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -39905,22 +40373,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 253, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", @@ -39969,6 +40421,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", @@ -40018,7 +40486,7 @@ } ], "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", @@ -40045,7 +40513,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -40062,17 +40530,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -40131,7 +40599,7 @@ } ], "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -40264,6 +40732,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", @@ -40281,7 +40765,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "numforecasts": 434, + "numforecasts": 435, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", @@ -40291,22 +40775,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", @@ -40393,29 +40861,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -40425,6 +40877,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", @@ -40468,22 +40936,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/", @@ -40516,6 +40968,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/", @@ -40618,7 +41086,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 442, + "numforecasts": 444, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -40628,60 +41096,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 289, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/", @@ -40698,29 +41112,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -40784,7 +41182,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -40811,7 +41209,7 @@ } ], "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -40892,7 +41290,7 @@ } ], "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 276, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -40929,6 +41327,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", + "numforecasts": 287, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -40961,33 +41386,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "numforecasts": 286, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/", @@ -41074,22 +41472,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/", @@ -41122,6 +41504,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", + "numforecasts": 169, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -41139,7 +41537,7 @@ } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -41149,22 +41547,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", - "numforecasts": 169, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/", @@ -41257,7 +41639,7 @@ } ], "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -41283,22 +41665,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/", @@ -41315,6 +41681,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", + "numforecasts": 179, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/", @@ -41348,7 +41730,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -41444,7 +41826,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -41540,6 +41922,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/", @@ -41557,7 +41955,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -41567,22 +41965,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/", @@ -41627,7 +42009,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", @@ -41670,7 +42052,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z", @@ -41734,7 +42116,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 309, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -41750,7 +42132,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z", @@ -41809,7 +42191,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 442, + "numforecasts": 443, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -41836,7 +42218,7 @@ } ], "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 126, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -41906,7 +42288,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 538, + "numforecasts": 539, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -41980,29 +42362,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z", @@ -42012,6 +42378,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/", @@ -42045,7 +42427,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -42072,7 +42454,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -42088,7 +42470,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -42115,7 +42497,7 @@ } ], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n", - "numforecasts": 277, + "numforecasts": 278, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -42174,7 +42556,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 464, + "numforecasts": 489, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", @@ -42217,7 +42599,7 @@ } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 589, + "numforecasts": 591, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -42437,7 +42819,7 @@ } ], "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -42538,6 +42920,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", + "numforecasts": 145, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/", @@ -42570,33 +42979,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", - "numforecasts": 144, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/", @@ -42630,7 +43012,7 @@ } ], "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 430, + "numforecasts": 431, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -42711,7 +43093,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z", @@ -42737,6 +43119,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 166, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:36:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/", @@ -42754,7 +43152,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", @@ -42764,22 +43162,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:36:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/", @@ -42813,7 +43195,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -42888,7 +43270,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -42898,22 +43280,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 695, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", @@ -42930,6 +43296,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 707, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", @@ -42984,7 +43366,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 257, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -43053,33 +43435,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/", @@ -43129,7 +43484,7 @@ } ], "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -43172,7 +43527,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -43209,33 +43564,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/", @@ -43252,22 +43580,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/", @@ -43285,7 +43597,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -43295,6 +43607,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/", @@ -43424,7 +43752,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -43467,7 +43795,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n", - "numforecasts": 191, + "numforecasts": 192, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -43494,7 +43822,7 @@ } ], "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", @@ -43666,7 +43994,7 @@ } ], "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -43736,7 +44064,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -43763,7 +44091,7 @@ } ], "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -43773,33 +44101,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/", @@ -43816,6 +44117,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/", @@ -43833,7 +44161,7 @@ } ], "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n", - "numforecasts": 476, + "numforecasts": 478, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -43843,33 +44171,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/", @@ -43887,7 +44188,7 @@ } ], "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 301, + "numforecasts": 302, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", @@ -44005,7 +44306,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 370, + "numforecasts": 373, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -44063,22 +44364,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/", @@ -44096,7 +44381,7 @@ } ], "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z", @@ -44106,6 +44391,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/", @@ -44123,7 +44451,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 282, + "numforecasts": 283, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -44133,33 +44461,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/", @@ -44193,7 +44494,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -44220,7 +44521,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 224, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", @@ -44364,33 +44665,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n", - "numforecasts": 178, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/", @@ -44424,7 +44698,7 @@ } ], "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 260, + "numforecasts": 261, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -44553,7 +44827,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 239, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -44656,17 +44930,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -44784,7 +45058,7 @@ } ], "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", @@ -44811,7 +45085,7 @@ } ], "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 655, + "numforecasts": 657, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", @@ -44827,7 +45101,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -44880,6 +45154,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/", @@ -44897,7 +45187,7 @@ } ], "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -44907,22 +45197,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 174, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/", @@ -45138,7 +45412,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z", @@ -45181,7 +45455,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -45299,7 +45573,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -45358,7 +45632,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", @@ -45401,7 +45675,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -45427,6 +45701,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 200, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", @@ -45481,33 +45782,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 199, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/", @@ -45530,7 +45804,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -45573,7 +45847,7 @@ } ], "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -45616,7 +45890,7 @@ } ], "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -45626,22 +45900,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", @@ -45659,7 +45917,7 @@ } ], "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 705, + "numforecasts": 706, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -45669,6 +45927,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/", @@ -45851,33 +46125,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/", @@ -46029,7 +46276,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-20T07:00:00Z", @@ -46056,7 +46303,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 164, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", @@ -46072,7 +46319,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -46346,7 +46593,7 @@ } ], "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 175, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -46362,7 +46609,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z", @@ -46486,7 +46733,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z", @@ -46540,7 +46787,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n", - "numforecasts": 261, + "numforecasts": 262, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -46674,7 +46921,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -46921,7 +47168,7 @@ } ], "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -47023,7 +47270,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", @@ -47050,7 +47297,7 @@ } ], "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -47291,7 +47538,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -47323,7 +47570,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -47398,7 +47645,7 @@ } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 263, + "numforecasts": 264, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -47554,7 +47801,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -47570,7 +47817,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \">\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -47613,7 +47860,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -47688,7 +47935,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", @@ -47698,33 +47945,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/", @@ -47752,6 +47972,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 137, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/", @@ -47919,7 +48166,7 @@ } ], "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -47994,7 +48241,7 @@ } ], "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 465, + "numforecasts": 466, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", @@ -48048,7 +48295,7 @@ } ], "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n", - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -48064,7 +48311,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n", - "numforecasts": 220, + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -48080,7 +48327,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -48090,22 +48337,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/", @@ -48139,7 +48370,7 @@ } ], "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", @@ -48149,33 +48380,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/", @@ -48219,6 +48423,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n", + "numforecasts": 51, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/", @@ -48246,22 +48466,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -48353,33 +48557,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/", @@ -48516,17 +48693,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", @@ -48585,7 +48762,7 @@ } ], "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -48628,7 +48805,7 @@ } ], "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 276, + "numforecasts": 278, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", @@ -48655,7 +48832,7 @@ } ], "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", @@ -48731,17 +48908,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 112, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z", @@ -48811,7 +48988,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -48854,7 +49031,7 @@ } ], "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -48924,7 +49101,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "numforecasts": 256, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -48999,7 +49176,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -49042,7 +49219,7 @@ } ], "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 243, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", @@ -49069,7 +49246,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", - "numforecasts": 350, + "numforecasts": 351, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -49138,33 +49315,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/", @@ -49182,7 +49332,7 @@ } ], "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 180, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -49285,17 +49435,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).\nWill Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", @@ -49483,7 +49633,7 @@ } ], "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -49553,7 +49703,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? \nPositive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.\n", - "numforecasts": 302, + "numforecasts": 303, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", @@ -49612,7 +49762,7 @@ } ], "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -49677,17 +49827,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -49746,7 +49896,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -49966,7 +50116,7 @@ } ], "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -50090,7 +50240,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -50175,33 +50325,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "numforecasts": 87, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/", @@ -50234,6 +50357,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", @@ -50251,7 +50401,7 @@ } ], "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "numforecasts": 611, + "numforecasts": 612, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -50278,7 +50428,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "numforecasts": 374, + "numforecasts": 375, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -50520,7 +50670,7 @@ } ], "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -50622,7 +50772,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -50649,7 +50799,7 @@ } ], "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", @@ -50741,17 +50891,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -50767,7 +50917,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -50794,7 +50944,7 @@ } ], "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", @@ -50821,7 +50971,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z", @@ -50864,7 +51014,7 @@ } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -50923,7 +51073,7 @@ } ], "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -50977,7 +51127,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -51004,7 +51154,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 190, + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -51165,7 +51315,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -51218,6 +51368,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", + "numforecasts": 176, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/", @@ -51245,22 +51411,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 175, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/", @@ -51294,7 +51444,7 @@ } ], "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n", - "numforecasts": 225, + "numforecasts": 227, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z", @@ -51321,7 +51471,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -51450,7 +51600,7 @@ } ], "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "numforecasts": 223, + "numforecasts": 224, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -51477,7 +51627,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5111, + "numforecasts": 5112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -51606,7 +51756,7 @@ } ], "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -51649,7 +51799,7 @@ } ], "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", @@ -51729,6 +51879,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 98, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/", @@ -51746,7 +51912,7 @@ } ], "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 270, + "numforecasts": 271, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -51756,22 +51922,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/", @@ -51789,7 +51939,7 @@ } ], "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", - "numforecasts": 465, + "numforecasts": 467, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -52175,7 +52325,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", @@ -52315,7 +52465,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n", - "numforecasts": 353, + "numforecasts": 356, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -52358,7 +52508,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -52401,7 +52551,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n", - "numforecasts": 180, + "numforecasts": 181, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z", @@ -52557,7 +52707,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -52584,7 +52734,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 281, + "numforecasts": 282, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -52627,7 +52777,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", @@ -52654,7 +52804,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z", @@ -52815,7 +52965,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "numforecasts": 293, + "numforecasts": 295, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", @@ -52901,7 +53051,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z", @@ -53100,7 +53250,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -53170,7 +53320,7 @@ } ], "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -53224,7 +53374,7 @@ } ], "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n", - "numforecasts": 210, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -53310,7 +53460,7 @@ } ], "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n", - "numforecasts": 437, + "numforecasts": 438, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -53380,7 +53530,7 @@ } ], "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n", - "numforecasts": 404, + "numforecasts": 405, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", @@ -53406,33 +53556,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 429, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", @@ -53450,7 +53573,7 @@ } ], "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -53460,6 +53583,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 430, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/", @@ -53622,7 +53772,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 246, + "numforecasts": 247, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -53874,7 +54024,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 199, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", @@ -53922,7 +54072,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "numforecasts": 259, + "numforecasts": 262, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -54073,7 +54223,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 84, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -54116,7 +54266,7 @@ } ], "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", - "numforecasts": 206, + "numforecasts": 207, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -54170,7 +54320,7 @@ } ], "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -54261,7 +54411,7 @@ } ], "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z", @@ -54288,7 +54438,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", @@ -54422,7 +54572,7 @@ } ], "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", - "numforecasts": 574, + "numforecasts": 575, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z", @@ -54465,7 +54615,7 @@ } ], "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "numforecasts": 474, + "numforecasts": 477, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -54550,33 +54700,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/", @@ -54668,33 +54791,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/", @@ -54739,7 +54835,7 @@ } ], "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z", @@ -54749,22 +54845,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/", @@ -54852,7 +54932,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 183, + "numforecasts": 184, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -54911,7 +54991,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n", - "numforecasts": 127, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -55142,7 +55222,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -55179,33 +55259,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/", @@ -55233,22 +55286,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/", @@ -55266,7 +55303,7 @@ } ], "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", @@ -55276,6 +55313,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -55309,7 +55362,7 @@ } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1382, + "numforecasts": 1383, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -55438,7 +55491,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z", @@ -55454,7 +55507,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 412, + "numforecasts": 413, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -55529,7 +55582,7 @@ } ], "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", @@ -55605,17 +55658,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 527, + "numforecasts": 529, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -55733,7 +55786,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 262, + "numforecasts": 263, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", @@ -55888,33 +55941,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \nThe preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n...\nAstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\nAround the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\nThey soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\nWill AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 202, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T17:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/", @@ -56275,33 +56301,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", - "numforecasts": 297, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/", @@ -56367,7 +56366,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -56458,7 +56457,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 225, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -56527,6 +56526,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", + "numforecasts": 163, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/", @@ -56544,7 +56559,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -56554,22 +56569,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 163, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", @@ -56801,33 +56800,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/", @@ -56936,7 +56908,7 @@ } ], "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n", - "numforecasts": 262, + "numforecasts": 263, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z", @@ -57011,7 +56983,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -57027,7 +56999,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -57075,7 +57047,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 120, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", @@ -57085,116 +57057,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8999860766695875619471546064478487", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1000139233304124380528453935521513", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "850", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03761913118139671975368716980885902", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.962380868818603280246312830191141", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "152", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1400736035928692911440260279913681", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8599263964071307088559739720086319", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "87", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9371314398573680504652377356106168", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.06286856014263194953476226438938325", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "91", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "0", - "probability": "0.4340876940115133782146219093820505", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "1", - "probability": "0.3329396760476596955599754174467932", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2", - "probability": "0.2329726299408269262254026731711563", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "158", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2" - }, { "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", @@ -57203,37 +57065,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07278348450671392133713530102707062", + "probability": "0.04289521231937485216720053165480434", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9272165154932860786628646989729294", + "probability": "0.9571047876806251478327994683451957", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", + "numforecasts": "134", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9607928070787265821137549067928738", + "probability": "0.9002039693649043537392718015929172", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.03920719292127341788624509320712615", + "probability": "0.09979603063509564626072819840708283", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "480", + "numforecasts": "852", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57245,127 +57107,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.137768459510460088156237908371624", + "probability": "0.1626438948240446428508480347025264", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.862231540489539911843762091628376", + "probability": "0.8373561051759553571491519652974736", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will The Weeknd’s Nifty Gateway drop generate in total sales?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-weeknds-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-in-total-sales", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what The Weeknd’s NFT drop on April 3, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on April 3, 2021, via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve 48 hours later, on April 5, 2:00 PM ET, according to data published for the entirety of The Weeknd’s drop. The bracket which resolves to “Yes” will be the one which corresponds to the total sales of The Weeknd’s NFT drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, each bracket will resolve equally to 20:20:20:20:20. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $5M", - "probability": "0.9970844774081486673702853220465268", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$5M to less than $10M", - "probability": "0.002252133247187208361756349059784681", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$10M to less than $20M", - "probability": "0.0002224270844625515253444555684127745", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$20M to less than $30M", - "probability": "0.0002204809271256202801753957153618757", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$30M or more", - "probability": "0.0002204813330759524624384776099138952", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "164", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $5M, $5M to less than $10M, $10M to less than $20M, $20M to less than $30M, $30M or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", - "address": "0xDB3b1c991c09B5a46911B9f991924A5A3639D676", - "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03420631250384755319461498321788003", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.96579368749615244680538501678212", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "127", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05944227492041401588695338806455382", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9405577250795859841130466119354462", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "450", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5576042441166223717836837081986532", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4423957558833776282163162918013468", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "484", + "numforecasts": "112", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57377,58 +57128,173 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1272135716023695101901625708147504", + "probability": "0.08230492310864397199453546569564446", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8727864283976304898098374291852496", + "probability": "0.9176950768913560280054645343043555", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "86", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03925864458252690418984879310071039", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9607413554174730958101512068992896", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasts": "94", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", + "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", + "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.02133163057367735072211258195805924", + "probability": "0.9653019566630247126092061354150159", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9786683694263226492778874180419408", + "probability": "0.0346980433369752873907938645849841", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "760", + "numforecasts": "509", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9251997333475857063590461609885448", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.07480026665241429364095383901145517", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "43", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5453758226938825658224889273909583", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4546241773061174341775110726090417", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "527", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9952637804609687466398227552779004", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.004736219539031253360177244722099615", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "40", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "49,999 or fewer", + "probability": "0.005461995014925152009066173070714966", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50,000-62,499", + "probability": "0.1402457285384641398727795776003874", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "62,500-74,999", + "probability": "0.8477845321483973198663299988905947", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "75,000 or more", + "probability": "0.006507744298213388251824250438302919", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "266", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.03415979679579444134958508639239318", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9658402032042055586504149136076068", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "132", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.07287449903319681253427004395658991", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9271255009668031874657299560434101", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "462", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57440,90 +57306,80 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7576761787844405298841269979213791", + "probability": "0.7550145080311792637230679442582792", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2423238212155594701158730020786209", + "probability": "0.2449854919688207362769320557417208", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1037", + "numforecasts": "1213", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7", + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4390479478378078263686834451491899", + "probability": "0.03896671346054959704613527283522096", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5609520521621921736313165548508101", + "probability": "0.961033286539450402953864727164779", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "49,999 or fewer", - "probability": "0.01245159215307202152905888614012675", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "50,000-62,499", - "probability": "0.3852702140466881649880817103981702", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "62,500-74,999", - "probability": "0.5850094210925269969320208739163795", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "75,000 or more", - "probability": "0.01726877270771281655083852954532348", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasts": "108", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7322458281307298454159110622578949", + "probability": "0.01581076221947057694031304319276671", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2677541718692701545840889377421051", + "probability": "0.9841892377805294230596869568072333", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "67", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "765", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0866927470574085197706746528854292", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9133072529425914802293253471145708", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "679", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { @@ -57534,16 +57390,49 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1976957257819044650117159330637653", + "probability": "0.1139484754054179756559525019638854", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8023042742180955349882840669362347", + "probability": "0.8860515245945820243440474980361146", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "406", + "numforecasts": "485", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2066787539519710416558416842894747", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7933212460480289583441583157105253", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "95", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57555,17 +57444,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.8905974567101949679276675804783593", + "probability": "0.9300703642912710245949175378339916", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.1094025432898050320723324195216407", + "probability": "0.06992963570872897540508246216600837", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "293", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "321", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk" }, { @@ -57605,12 +57494,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.5392156862745099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46078431372549017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57625,12 +57514,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57645,12 +57534,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57665,12 +57554,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57685,12 +57574,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57705,12 +57594,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57765,12 +57654,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8811881188118812, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57785,88 +57674,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.5398230088495575, + "probability": 0.5454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.20353982300884954, + "probability": 0.17272727272727267, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.061946902654867256, + "probability": 0.06363636363636363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.05454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.017699115044247787, + "probability": 0.05454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.018181818181818177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Curtis Sliwa", + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Curtis Sliwa, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -57895,12 +57784,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57915,12 +57804,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57955,12 +57844,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.6237623762376238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37623762376237624, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57995,12 +57884,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58015,12 +57904,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58055,12 +57944,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58075,7 +57964,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8737864077669902, + "probability": 0.8640776699029126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58085,7 +57974,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.029126213592233007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58110,12 +57999,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.20999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58130,12 +58019,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58150,88 +58039,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3620689655172413, + "probability": 0.37614678899082565, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3017241379310344, + "probability": 0.3211009174311926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.12068965517241378, + "probability": 0.10091743119266054, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.051724137931034475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.043103448275862065, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.025862068965517238, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Ralph Brinkhaus, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Ralph Brinkhaus, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -58240,37 +58129,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.49056603773584906, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.2169811320754717, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "probability": 0.16346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.07547169811320754, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58285,88 +58174,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.2123893805309734, + "probability": 0.19642857142857137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.16814159292035394, + "probability": 0.18749999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.0973451327433628, + "probability": 0.08928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.07964601769911502, + "probability": 0.08035714285714284, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06194690265486724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05309734513274335, + "probability": 0.062499999999999986, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.04424778761061946, + "probability": 0.053571428571428555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Cruz", + "probability": 0.053571428571428555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.04424778761061946, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.04424778761061946, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.03539823008849557, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03539823008849557, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.017699115044247784, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Larry Hogan", + "probability": 0.017857142857142853, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -58380,12 +58269,12 @@ }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58394,13 +58283,13 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, + "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58411,7 +58300,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" }, { "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?", @@ -58420,43 +58309,43 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.43362831858407075, + "probability": 0.43243243243243246, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.34513274336283184, + "probability": 0.3873873873873874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07964601769911503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.061946902654867256, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.08108108108108109, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "probability": 0.03603603603603604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barros", + "probability": 0.02702702702702703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Santiago", + "probability": 0.02702702702702703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, Jon Santiago, John Barros, A. Essaibi-George, Marty Walsh" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, John Barros, Jon Santiago, Marty Walsh" }, { "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?", @@ -58505,12 +58394,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58525,12 +58414,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58545,12 +58434,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58585,12 +58474,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8217821782178217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.1782178217821782, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58605,72 +58494,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.29999999999999993, + "probability": 0.3238095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.28181818181818175, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.18181818181818177, + "probability": 0.19999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.06363636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Gibbons", - "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.018181818181818177, + "name": "Mike Gibbons", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Warren Davidson", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58681,7 +58570,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Mike Gibbons, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Mike Gibbons, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson" }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?", @@ -58690,12 +58579,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58730,12 +58619,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58750,77 +58639,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5304347826086956, + "probability": 0.6071428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.3565217391304347, + "probability": 0.27678571428571425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58835,7 +58724,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8962264150943395, + "probability": 0.9056603773584905, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58843,11 +58732,6 @@ "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, @@ -58878,6 +58762,11 @@ "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Daniel Ortega", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, @@ -58886,7 +58775,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", @@ -58915,52 +58804,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.45370370370370366, + "probability": 0.5140186915887851, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.35185185185185186, + "probability": 0.26168224299065423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09259259259259259, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.05607476635514018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58975,12 +58864,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58995,12 +58884,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "probability": 0.6237623762376238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.37254901960784315, + "probability": 0.37623762376237624, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59015,7 +58904,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.4117647058823529, + "probability": 0.40196078431372545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59030,7 +58919,7 @@ }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59070,52 +58959,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.27999999999999997, + "probability": 0.32380952380952377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.25999999999999995, + "probability": 0.23809523809523803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.14999999999999997, + "probability": 0.14285714285714282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.10999999999999997, + "probability": 0.10476190476190474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04999999999999999, + "probability": 0.04761904761904761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.04999999999999999, + "probability": 0.04761904761904761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59130,12 +59019,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59150,62 +59039,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.03809523809523809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.5660377358490566, + "probability": 0.5619047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.27358490566037735, + "probability": 0.26666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.05714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59220,88 +59109,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.6120689655172413, + "probability": 0.611111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.2672413793103448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Renata Hesse", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deborah Feinstein", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Susan Davies, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -59310,17 +59199,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.7156862745098039, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.27450980392156865, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59335,22 +59224,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59395,33 +59284,33 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emilia Sykes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nan Whaley", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joyce Beatty", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Emilia Sykes, Nan Whaley, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -59430,32 +59319,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.7058823529411764, + "probability": 0.6923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.13461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59470,52 +59359,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.1714285714285714, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.3142857142857143, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.24761904761904763, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59530,7 +59419,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59585,12 +59474,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6633663366336634, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33663366336633666, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59625,73 +59514,73 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.4857142857142856, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.16190476190476188, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.08571428571428569, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thea Lee", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009523809523809521, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009523809523809521, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bianchi", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009523809523809521, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Sarah Bianchi, Thea Lee, Heather Boushey, Gene Sperling, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, John Jones" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Heather Boushey, Thea Lee, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Sarah Bianchi, John Jones, Sonal Shah" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", @@ -59720,7 +59609,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59775,12 +59664,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59795,12 +59684,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59815,52 +59704,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5130434782608695, + "probability": 0.5233644859813085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.2869565217391304, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.05217391304347825, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59875,68 +59764,73 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.3831775700934579, + "probability": 0.40495867768595034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.21495327102803738, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.19834710743801648, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.14876033057851237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.05607476635514018, + "probability": 0.08264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.05785123966942148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keiko Fujimori", + "probability": 0.04958677685950412, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pedro Castillo", + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry, Pedro Castillo" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", @@ -59945,47 +59839,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7850467289719626, + "probability": 0.7904761904761904, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.12380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60000,48 +59894,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.49504950495049505, + "probability": 0.49019607843137253, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessyn Farrell", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.21568627450980393, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.13725490196078433, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Lance Randall", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "name": "Bruce Harrell", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lance Randall", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenny Durkan", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "James Donaldson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Bruce Harrell, Colleen Echohawk, Lance Randall, Andrew Grant Houston, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Andrew Grant Houston, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson" }, { "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?", @@ -60050,7 +59944,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60060,7 +59954,7 @@ }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60090,12 +59984,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60110,12 +60004,12 @@ }, { "name": "Kelly Loeffler", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Perdue", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60140,22 +60034,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.6039603960396039, + "probability": 0.6176470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60170,12 +60064,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60190,12 +60084,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "probability": 0.06000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60210,57 +60104,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.4059405940594059, + "probability": 0.4077669902912621, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.36633663366336633, + "probability": 0.36893203883495146, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.10679611650485436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.038834951456310676, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.019417475728155338, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60275,43 +60169,43 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.37623762376237624, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.27722772277227725, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.2376237623762376, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Forest", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Forest", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Richard Burr, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows" }, { "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?", @@ -60320,12 +60214,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60340,12 +60234,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60353,51 +60247,6 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "39", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "40", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "42", - "probability": 0.9428571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "43", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "38 or fewer, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44 or more" - }, { "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021", @@ -60410,32 +60259,32 @@ }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "12 or 13 votes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "12 or 13 votes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60445,12 +60294,12 @@ }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60505,12 +60354,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.8235294117647058, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.1764705882352941, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60525,22 +60374,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3076923076923077, + "probability": 0.31428571428571433, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "probability": 0.2952380952380953, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.2788461538461538, + "probability": 0.2761904761904762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.125, + "probability": 0.1142857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60555,17 +60404,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathy Hochul", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60573,16 +60422,6 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Jumaane Williams", "probability": 0.03, @@ -60593,6 +60432,16 @@ "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Bill de Blasio", "probability": 0.01, @@ -60616,7 +60465,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?", @@ -60625,12 +60474,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60645,17 +60494,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cheri Beasley", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Erica Smith", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60663,6 +60507,11 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Erica Smith", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Heath Shuler", "probability": 0.02, @@ -60671,7 +60520,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Richard Lee Watkins, Erica Smith, Heath Shuler" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?", @@ -60680,17 +60529,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8269230769230769, + "probability": 0.8446601941747572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.14423076923076922, + "probability": 0.11650485436893203, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.038834951456310676, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60705,42 +60554,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.7452830188679245, + "probability": 0.7090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.23636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60805,37 +60654,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mo Brooks", - "probability": 0.6796116504854368, + "probability": 0.657142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katie Britt", - "probability": 0.1650485436893204, + "probability": 0.1619047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lynda Blanchard", - "probability": 0.058252427184466014, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Merrill", - "probability": 0.058252427184466014, + "probability": 0.05714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Sessions", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Shelby", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Moore", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60850,7 +60699,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bill Peduto", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60930,7 +60779,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60950,7 +60799,7 @@ }, { "name": "1.675M to 1.7M", - "probability": 0.2685185185185185, + "probability": 0.24074074074074073, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60965,7 +60814,7 @@ }, { "name": "1.75M to 1.775M", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60975,7 +60824,7 @@ }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60990,12 +60839,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61010,12 +60859,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat Grassley", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61025,7 +60874,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61045,37 +60894,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.22429906542056072, + "probability": 0.23809523809523808, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.719626168224299, + "probability": 0.7047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61125,52 +60974,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.4954954954954955, + "probability": 0.5229357798165136, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.07339449541284403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.08108108108108107, + "probability": 0.07339449541284403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61185,12 +61034,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61205,17 +61054,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61240,52 +61089,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.09345794392523363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.09345794392523363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.11214953271028034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.12149532710280371, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.12149532710280371, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.11214953271028034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.09345794392523363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.06542056074766354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.06542056074766354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.12149532710280371, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61300,12 +61149,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61320,7 +61169,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61330,22 +61179,22 @@ }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61365,7 +61214,7 @@ }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61380,17 +61229,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.3076923076923077, + "probability": 0.375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.36538461538461536, + "probability": 0.28846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61440,52 +61289,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.6039603960396039, + "probability": 0.657142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.16831683168316833, + "probability": 0.12380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61520,17 +61369,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jody Hice", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Raffensperger", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Belle Isle", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61565,7 +61414,7 @@ }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61580,12 +61429,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61600,12 +61449,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61613,6 +61462,76 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.7722772277227723, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Fried", + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Val Demings", + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Crist", + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Charlie Crist" + }, { "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ", "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c", @@ -62296,12 +62215,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.03896452884270871, + "probability": 0.03810107734080757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.04478681476173415, + "probability": 0.04379434177104319, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62311,37 +62230,37 @@ }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.0895736295234683, + "probability": 0.08758868354208638, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.08527409530634182, + "probability": 0.08338442673206622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.07165890361877464, + "probability": 0.0700709468336691, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.10659261913292728, + "probability": 0.10423053341508279, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.09736653529201003, + "probability": 0.09520889901024789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.13176280902902188, + "probability": 0.1510028904265569, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Truss", - "probability": 0.04845933357219635, + "probability": 0.04738547779626873, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62351,7 +62270,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.13176280902902188, + "probability": 0.12884295349040906, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62361,7 +62280,7 @@ }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.06888212110354713, + "probability": 0.06735569764386443, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62371,7 +62290,7 @@ }, { "name": "Brandon Lewis", - "probability": 0.04595127194553924, + "probability": 0.04493299465709031, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62396,7 +62315,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.03896452884270871, + "probability": 0.03810107734080757, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62411,17 +62330,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4026069395997797, + "probability": 0.3905262220639302, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.5463557921791813, + "probability": 0.5599679458641261, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0510372682210391, + "probability": 0.04950583207194372, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62486,22 +62405,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7727187028657616, + "probability": 0.7313921917423462, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.18127828054298642, + "probability": 0.22291920232187992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.032522624434389136, + "probability": 0.032300346409512216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013480392156862742, + "probability": 0.013388259526261582, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62638,189 +62557,192 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.22904211505247773, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.11066826092732829, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.10216553739869803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03693370532748771, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06815464328417696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06642752756742394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.147601966254816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.057791948983658824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06988175900092998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03693370532748771, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03015809751561047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Tarry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dawn Butler", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.04424073335990435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Miliband", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlotte Nichols", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Osborne", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Greenwood", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wes Streeting", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim McMahon", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alison McGovern", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bridget Phillipson", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62900,61 +62822,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.943211357728454, + "probability": 0.9460613886957382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.013297340531893617, + "probability": 0.012416807390483755, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.04169166166766645, + "probability": 0.039733783649548014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0009998000399920014, + "probability": 0.0009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62969,12 +62891,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4269662921348315, + "probability": 0.43361097501224893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5730337078651686, + "probability": 0.5663890249877511, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62989,12 +62911,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street", - "probability": 0.7110095852369436, + "probability": 0.7692382244621051, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne", - "probability": 0.28899041476305654, + "probability": 0.23076177553789493, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63069,22 +62991,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5249910746162084, + "probability": 0.543215174663119, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3432702606212067, + "probability": 0.33010042056475836, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08925383791503035, + "probability": 0.08582954252853832, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.04248482684755444, + "probability": 0.040854862243584235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63099,12 +63021,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.6696525248548085, + "probability": 0.6850305021116846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.33034747514519147, + "probability": 0.31496949788831535, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63209,12 +63131,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17627357659086904, + "probability": 0.17491691446562882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8237264234091309, + "probability": 0.8250830855343712, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63529,12 +63451,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5171304183229226, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48286958167707744, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63599,12 +63521,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4664641271325076, + "probability": 0.3476521573483189, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5335358728674924, + "probability": 0.6523478426516811, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63839,47 +63761,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.18174880069777583, + "probability": 0.18046984951824185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.21380287832533795, + "probability": 0.2122983652701093, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.11600523331879632, + "probability": 0.11518891414961567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.02474923680767553, + "probability": 0.024575078488686803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.010902747492368076, + "probability": 0.010826025765941322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.03761447884866986, + "probability": 0.037349788892497564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06410815525512428, + "probability": 0.06365703150373497, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.019843000436109898, + "probability": 0.019703366894013207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.07272132577409506, + "probability": 0.07220959185882862, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63889,7 +63811,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07032272132577409, + "probability": 0.06982786619032152, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63919,7 +63841,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.05451373746184038, + "probability": 0.054130128829706615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63939,7 +63861,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.02725686873092019, + "probability": 0.027065064414853308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63959,7 +63881,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.05451373746184038, + "probability": 0.054130128829706615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63974,7 +63896,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.05189707806367203, + "probability": 0.05856879939374256, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63989,17 +63911,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.9088631984585742, + "probability": 0.8967140570567743, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.028323699421965318, + "probability": 0.027681009321156202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.012813102119460502, + "probability": 0.01449957631108182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -64009,17 +63931,17 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.045857418111753374, + "probability": 0.05705677431503625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0009633911368015415, + "probability": 0.0009415309292910274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.003179190751445087, + "probability": 0.0031070520666603902, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64094,17 +64016,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 3", - "probability": 0.12265821604995807, + "probability": 0.1297062881923911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 3", - "probability": 0.3192282598564638, + "probability": 0.33757145673171696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 4", - "probability": 0.5581135240935782, + "probability": 0.532722255075892, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64279,32 +64201,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 45%", - "probability": 0.03227617176536626, + "probability": 0.029573118463912224, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45–49.9%", - "probability": 0.10393862849658525, + "probability": 0.09523401337219269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50–54.9%", - "probability": 0.6452427729441481, + "probability": 0.6749528544488256, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55–59.9%", - "probability": 0.14173449340443445, + "probability": 0.12986456368935367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60–64.9%", - "probability": 0.06240059874637477, + "probability": 0.05717469569689696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65% or over", - "probability": 0.014407334643091026, + "probability": 0.013200754328818788, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64339,12 +64261,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40614775271224385, + "probability": 0.45030684625806966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5938522472877561, + "probability": 0.5496931537419303, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64379,12 +64301,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8055977823482071, + "probability": 0.8070128717265868, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.19440221765179289, + "probability": 0.19298712827341322, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64449,12 +64371,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7387346791636626, + "probability": 0.7403027859894294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2612653208363374, + "probability": 0.2596972140105706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64669,12 +64591,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4642683045724871, + "probability": 0.4636832704901766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.535731695427513, + "probability": 0.5363167295098233, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64934,12 +64856,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.5012858367463567, + "probability": 0.4517169417567824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.49871416325364315, + "probability": 0.5482830582432177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65224,12 +65146,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.7903770128242215, + "probability": 0.8013886351178513, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.20962298717577862, + "probability": 0.19861136488214873, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65264,12 +65186,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.2641392809312867, + "probability": 0.24710871241326138, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.7358607190687133, + "probability": 0.7528912875867386, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65384,12 +65306,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6086794561370833, + "probability": 0.6785079928952042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.3913205438629168, + "probability": 0.32149200710479575, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65489,12 +65411,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5555649383550075, + "probability": 0.6274678111587982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.44443506164499236, + "probability": 0.3725321888412017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65764,12 +65686,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.6174792531120332, + "probability": 0.6225690890481065, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3825207468879668, + "probability": 0.3774309109518936, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65889,27 +65811,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5112900058904379, + "probability": 0.40807088510064526, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4503239740820735, + "probability": 0.5665029374939805, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.014038876889848813, + "probability": 0.01377251276124434, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0009817396426467704, + "probability": 0.0009631127805065974, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)", - "probability": 0.02336540349499313, + "probability": 0.010690551863623231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66054,17 +65976,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5909458367016976, + "probability": 0.5772065274609581, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.2395580706009162, + "probability": 0.1949464818389191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.16949609269738614, + "probability": 0.22784699070012282, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66099,17 +66021,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.5364893412713655, + "probability": 0.5636033491374962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.32657960437872097, + "probability": 0.35771209522848785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.017476473977338203, + "probability": 0.018359729647937053, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ 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- } - ], - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Heritage Party", + "title": "Kam Balayev", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -66866,7 +66788,7 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Women's Equality Party", + "title": "David Kurten", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -66885,7 +66807,7 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "UKIP", + "title": "Count Binface", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -66904,7 +66826,7 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "North East Party", + "title": "Richard Hewison", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -66923,7 +66845,7 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Samantha Lee (Ind)", + "title": "Piers Corbyn", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -66942,23 +66864,308 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials", + "title": "Farah London", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ { - "name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040", - "probability": 0.6086956521739131, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040", - "probability": 0.391304347826087, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040, Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United 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Harriet Harman, Daisy Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn, Layla Moran, Piers Morgan" }, + { + "title": "Most Seats in General Election", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.5894327152386443, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.39000059354135863, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Reform UK", + "probability": 0.006134115295766403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrat", + "probability": 0.006134115295766403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "UKIP", + "probability": 0.004608215968461327, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greens", + "probability": 0.0036902446600028953, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Greens" + }, + { + "title": "Hartlepool By-Election Winner", + "url": 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}, + { + "name": "Women's Equality Party", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "UKIP", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "North East Party", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker, Reform UK, Samantha Lee (Ind), SDP, Greens, Liberal Democrats, Heritage Party, Women's Equality Party, UKIP, North East Party" + }, + { + "title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040", + "probability": 0.6086956521739131, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040", + "probability": 0.391304347826087, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040, Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040" + }, { "title": "Boris Johnson Exit Date", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -67656,120 +67990,6 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, Rosena Allin-Khan, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Yvette Cooper, Anneliese Dodds, David Lammy, Dan Jarvis, Seema Malhotra, Jess Phillips, Rachel Reeves, James Murray, Clive Lewis, Zarah Sultana, Hilary Benn, Lousie Haigh, Shabana Mahmood, Stephen Kinnock, Jim McMahon, Stella Creasy, Emma Hardy, Bridget Phillipson, Richard Burgon, Ed Miliband, Matthew Pennycook, Lucy Powell, Dawn Butler, Alison McGovern, Janet Daby, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Jonathan Ashworth, Dan Carden, Ian Murray, Wes Streeting, Peter Kyle, David Miliband, Darren Jones, Chi Onwurah, Rosie Duffield, Diane Abbott, Nia Griffith, Jonathan Reynolds, Liz Kendall, John McDonnell, Preet Gill, Helen Hayes, Vicky Foxcroft, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Nadia Whittome, Angela Eagle, Justin Madders, Ian Lavery, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Emily Thornberry, Barry Gardiner, Jeremy Corbyn, Kate Osamor, Tony Blair" }, - { - "title": "Next London Mayoral Election", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.8736088652213292, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.04326443903953249, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.04326443903953249, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sian Berry", - "probability": 0.004520165272786977, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.004520165272786977, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.003619733943546543, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kam Balayev", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Hewison", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nims Obunge", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Max Fosh", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Drillminister", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valerie Brown", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Niko Omilana", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Kelleher", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vanessa Hudson", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Brian Rose, Sian Berry, Luisa Porritt, Laurence Fox, Kam Balayev, David Kurten, Count Binface, Richard Hewison, Piers Corbyn, Farah London, Peter Gammons, Nims Obunge, Max Fosh, Mandu Reid, Drillminister, Valerie Brown, Niko Omilana, Steve Kelleher, Vanessa Hudson" - }, { "title": "Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -67809,45 +68029,6 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Greens, Reform UK" }, - { - "title": "Most Seats in General Election", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5894327152386443, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.39000059354135863, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.006134115295766403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.006134115295766403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.004608215968461327, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.0036902446600028953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Greens" - }, { "title": "Next Permanent Scottish First Minister", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -68135,77 +68316,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4946254386960333, + "probability": 0.5392435227058505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.12365635967400833, + "probability": 0.1258234886313651, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.09892508773920666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.06744892345855, + "probability": 0.06863099379892643, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.06744892345855, + "probability": 0.06863099379892643, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Raymond McGuire", + "probability": 0.047183808236761916, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.035330388478288094, + "probability": 0.03594956818039003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.028536083001694232, + "probability": 0.02903618968416118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.021821710530707354, + "probability": 0.02220414505259384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.014547807020471568, + "probability": 0.014802763368395895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.014547807020471568, + "probability": 0.014802763368395895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.011073703851403731, + "probability": 0.011267775101316277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cleopatra Fitzgerald", - "probability": 0.0073459223568717825, + "probability": 0.007474662690972185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Pepitone", - "probability": 0.0073459223568717825, + "probability": 0.007474662690972185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abbey Laurel-Smith", - "probability": 0.0073459223568717825, + "probability": 0.007474662690972185, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Cleopatra Fitzgerald, Bill Pepitone, Abbey Laurel-Smith" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Cleopatra Fitzgerald, Bill Pepitone, Abbey Laurel-Smith" }, { "title": "Welsh Assembly Election 2021 - Most Seats", @@ -68214,22 +68395,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7894110347590826, + "probability": 0.8040294964941207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.16403346176812106, + "probability": 0.13915895131629014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.04296114474879361, + "probability": 0.05320783432681681, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.0035943587240026527, + "probability": 0.0036037178627724535, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index 28ad342..b2a19b4 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,109 +1,4 @@ [ - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8999860766695875619471546064478487", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1000139233304124380528453935521513", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "850", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03761913118139671975368716980885902", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.962380868818603280246312830191141", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "152", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1400736035928692911440260279913681", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8599263964071307088559739720086319", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "87", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9371314398573680504652377356106168", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.06286856014263194953476226438938325", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "91", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "0", - "probability": "0.4340876940115133782146219093820505", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "1", - "probability": "0.3329396760476596955599754174467932", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2", - "probability": "0.2329726299408269262254026731711563", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "158", - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", @@ -112,36 +7,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07278348450671392133713530102707062", + "probability": "0.04289521231937485216720053165480434", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9272165154932860786628646989729294", + "probability": "0.9571047876806251478327994683451957", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", + "numforecasts": "134", "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9607928070787265821137549067928738", + "probability": "0.9002039693649043537392718015929172", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.03920719292127341788624509320712615", + "probability": "0.09979603063509564626072819840708283", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "480", + "numforecasts": "852", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -152,122 +47,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.137768459510460088156237908371624", + "probability": "0.1626438948240446428508480347025264", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.862231540489539911843762091628376", + "probability": "0.8373561051759553571491519652974736", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "What will The Weeknd’s Nifty Gateway drop generate in total sales?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-weeknds-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-in-total-sales", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what The Weeknd’s NFT drop on April 3, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on April 3, 2021, via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve 48 hours later, on April 5, 2:00 PM ET, according to data published for the entirety of The Weeknd’s drop. The bracket which resolves to “Yes” will be the one which corresponds to the total sales of The Weeknd’s NFT drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, each bracket will resolve equally to 20:20:20:20:20. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $5M", - "probability": "0.9970844774081486673702853220465268", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$5M to less than $10M", - "probability": "0.002252133247187208361756349059784681", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$10M to less than $20M", - "probability": "0.0002224270844625515253444555684127745", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$20M to less than $30M", - "probability": "0.0002204809271256202801753957153618757", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$30M or more", - "probability": "0.0002204813330759524624384776099138952", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "164", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", - "address": "0xDB3b1c991c09B5a46911B9f991924A5A3639D676", - "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03420631250384755319461498321788003", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.96579368749615244680538501678212", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "127", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05944227492041401588695338806455382", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9405577250795859841130466119354462", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "450", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5576042441166223717836837081986532", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4423957558833776282163162918013468", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "484", + "numforecasts": "112", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -278,56 +67,166 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1272135716023695101901625708147504", + "probability": "0.08230492310864397199453546569564446", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8727864283976304898098374291852496", + "probability": "0.9176950768913560280054645343043555", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "86", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03925864458252690418984879310071039", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9607413554174730958101512068992896", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasts": "94", "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", + "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", + "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.02133163057367735072211258195805924", + "probability": "0.9653019566630247126092061354150159", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9786683694263226492778874180419408", + "probability": "0.0346980433369752873907938645849841", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "760", + "numforecasts": "509", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9251997333475857063590461609885448", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.07480026665241429364095383901145517", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "43", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5453758226938825658224889273909583", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4546241773061174341775110726090417", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "527", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9952637804609687466398227552779004", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.004736219539031253360177244722099615", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "40", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "49,999 or fewer", + "probability": "0.005461995014925152009066173070714966", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50,000-62,499", + "probability": "0.1402457285384641398727795776003874", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "62,500-74,999", + "probability": "0.8477845321483973198663299988905947", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "75,000 or more", + "probability": "0.006507744298213388251824250438302919", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "266", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.03415979679579444134958508639239318", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9658402032042055586504149136076068", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "132", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.07287449903319681253427004395658991", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9271255009668031874657299560434101", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "462", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -338,87 +237,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7576761787844405298841269979213791", + "probability": "0.7550145080311792637230679442582792", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2423238212155594701158730020786209", + "probability": "0.2449854919688207362769320557417208", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1037", + "numforecasts": "1213", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7", + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4390479478378078263686834451491899", + "probability": "0.03896671346054959704613527283522096", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5609520521621921736313165548508101", + "probability": "0.961033286539450402953864727164779", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "49,999 or fewer", - "probability": "0.01245159215307202152905888614012675", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "50,000-62,499", - "probability": "0.3852702140466881649880817103981702", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "62,500-74,999", - "probability": "0.5850094210925269969320208739163795", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "75,000 or more", - "probability": "0.01726877270771281655083852954532348", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasts": "108", "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7322458281307298454159110622578949", + "probability": "0.01581076221947057694031304319276671", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2677541718692701545840889377421051", + "probability": "0.9841892377805294230596869568072333", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "67", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": "765", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0866927470574085197706746528854292", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9133072529425914802293253471145708", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "679", + "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?", @@ -428,16 +317,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1976957257819044650117159330637653", + "probability": "0.1139484754054179756559525019638854", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8023042742180955349882840669362347", + "probability": "0.8860515245945820243440474980361146", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "406", + "numforecasts": "485", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [] + }, + { + "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2066787539519710416558416842894747", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7933212460480289583441583157105253", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "95", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -448,16 +368,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.8905974567101949679276675804783593", + "probability": "0.9300703642912710245949175378339916", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.1094025432898050320723324195216407", + "probability": "0.06992963570872897540508246216600837", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "293", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": "321", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index 0e9c837..da61084 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -35,12 +35,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.5392156862745099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46078431372549017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,12 +92,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -111,12 +111,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -130,12 +130,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -187,12 +187,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8811881188118812, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -206,82 +206,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.5398230088495575, + "probability": 0.5454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.20353982300884954, + "probability": 0.17272727272727267, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.061946902654867256, + "probability": 0.06363636363636363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.05454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.017699115044247787, + "probability": 0.05454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.018181818181818177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Curtis Sliwa", + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -314,12 +314,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -333,12 +333,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -371,12 +371,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.6237623762376238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37623762376237624, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -409,12 +409,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -428,12 +428,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -466,12 +466,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -485,7 +485,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8737864077669902, + "probability": 0.8640776699029126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -495,7 +495,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.029126213592233007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -519,12 +519,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.20999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -538,12 +538,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -557,82 +557,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3620689655172413, + "probability": 0.37614678899082565, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3017241379310344, + "probability": 0.3211009174311926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.12068965517241378, + "probability": 0.10091743119266054, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.051724137931034475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.043103448275862065, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.025862068965517238, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -646,37 +646,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.49056603773584906, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.2169811320754717, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "probability": 0.16346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.07547169811320754, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -690,82 +690,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.2123893805309734, + "probability": 0.19642857142857137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.16814159292035394, + "probability": 0.18749999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.0973451327433628, + "probability": 0.08928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.07964601769911502, + "probability": 0.08035714285714284, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06194690265486724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05309734513274335, + "probability": 0.062499999999999986, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.04424778761061946, + "probability": 0.053571428571428555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Cruz", + "probability": 0.053571428571428555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.04424778761061946, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.04424778761061946, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.03539823008849557, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03539823008849557, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.017699115044247784, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Larry Hogan", + "probability": 0.017857142857142853, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -784,12 +784,12 @@ }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -798,13 +798,13 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, + "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -823,37 +823,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.43362831858407075, + "probability": 0.43243243243243246, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.34513274336283184, + "probability": 0.3873873873873874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07964601769911503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.061946902654867256, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.08108108108108109, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "probability": 0.03603603603603604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barros", + "probability": 0.02702702702702703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Santiago", + "probability": 0.02702702702702703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -905,12 +905,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -924,12 +924,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -943,12 +943,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -981,12 +981,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8217821782178217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.1782178217821782, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1000,72 +1000,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.29999999999999993, + "probability": 0.3238095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.28181818181818175, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.18181818181818177, + "probability": 0.19999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.06363636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Gibbons", - "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.018181818181818177, + "name": "Mike Gibbons", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Warren Davidson", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1084,12 +1084,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1122,12 +1122,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1141,77 +1141,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5304347826086956, + "probability": 0.6071428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.3565217391304347, + "probability": 0.27678571428571425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1225,7 +1225,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8962264150943395, + "probability": 0.9056603773584905, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1233,11 +1233,6 @@ "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, @@ -1268,6 +1263,11 @@ "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Daniel Ortega", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, @@ -1303,52 +1303,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.45370370370370366, + "probability": 0.5140186915887851, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.35185185185185186, + "probability": 0.26168224299065423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09259259259259259, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.05607476635514018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1362,12 +1362,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1381,12 +1381,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "probability": 0.6237623762376238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.37254901960784315, + "probability": 0.37623762376237624, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1400,7 +1400,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.4117647058823529, + "probability": 0.40196078431372545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1415,7 +1415,7 @@ }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1454,52 +1454,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.27999999999999997, + "probability": 0.32380952380952377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.25999999999999995, + "probability": 0.23809523809523803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.14999999999999997, + "probability": 0.14285714285714282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.10999999999999997, + "probability": 0.10476190476190474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04999999999999999, + "probability": 0.04761904761904761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.04999999999999999, + "probability": 0.04761904761904761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1513,12 +1513,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1532,62 +1532,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.03809523809523809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.5660377358490566, + "probability": 0.5619047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.27358490566037735, + "probability": 0.26666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.05714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1601,82 +1601,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.6120689655172413, + "probability": 0.611111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.2672413793103448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Renata Hesse", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deborah Feinstein", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1690,17 +1690,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.7156862745098039, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.27450980392156865, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1714,22 +1714,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1773,26 +1773,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joyce Beatty", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nan Whaley", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amy Acton", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joyce Beatty", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -1807,32 +1807,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.7058823529411764, + "probability": 0.6923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.13461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1846,52 +1846,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.1714285714285714, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.3142857142857143, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.24761904761904763, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1905,7 +1905,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1958,12 +1958,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6633663366336634, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33663366336633666, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1996,67 +1996,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.4857142857142856, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.16190476190476188, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.08571428571428569, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thea Lee", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009523809523809521, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009523809523809521, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bianchi", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009523809523809521, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2089,7 +2089,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2143,12 +2143,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2162,12 +2162,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2181,52 +2181,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5130434782608695, + "probability": 0.5233644859813085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.2869565217391304, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.05217391304347825, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2240,62 +2240,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.3831775700934579, + "probability": 0.40495867768595034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.21495327102803738, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.19834710743801648, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.14876033057851237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.05607476635514018, + "probability": 0.08264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.05785123966942148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keiko Fujimori", + "probability": 0.04958677685950412, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pedro Castillo", + "probability": 0.008264462809917354, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2309,47 +2314,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7850467289719626, + "probability": 0.7904761904761904, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.12380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2363,42 +2368,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.49504950495049505, + "probability": 0.49019607843137253, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessyn Farrell", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.21568627450980393, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.13725490196078433, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Lance Randall", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "name": "Bruce Harrell", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lance Randall", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenny Durkan", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "James Donaldson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2412,7 +2417,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2422,7 +2427,7 @@ }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2451,12 +2456,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2471,12 +2476,12 @@ }, { "name": "Kelly Loeffler", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Perdue", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2500,22 +2505,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.6039603960396039, + "probability": 0.6176470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2529,12 +2534,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2548,12 +2553,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "probability": 0.06000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2567,57 +2572,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.4059405940594059, + "probability": 0.4077669902912621, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.36633663366336633, + "probability": 0.36893203883495146, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.10679611650485436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.038834951456310676, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.019417475728155338, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2631,37 +2636,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.37623762376237624, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.27722772277227725, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.2376237623762376, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Forest", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Forest", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2675,12 +2680,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2694,62 +2699,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "39", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "40", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "42", - "probability": 0.9428571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "43", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021", @@ -2762,32 +2723,32 @@ }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "12 or 13 votes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "12 or 13 votes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2797,12 +2758,12 @@ }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2854,12 +2815,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.8235294117647058, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.1764705882352941, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2873,22 +2834,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3076923076923077, + "probability": 0.31428571428571433, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "probability": 0.2952380952380953, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.2788461538461538, + "probability": 0.2761904761904762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.125, + "probability": 0.1142857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2902,17 +2863,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathy Hochul", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2920,16 +2881,6 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Jumaane Williams", "probability": 0.03, @@ -2940,6 +2891,16 @@ "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Bill de Blasio", "probability": 0.01, @@ -2971,12 +2932,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2990,17 +2951,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cheri Beasley", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Erica Smith", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3008,6 +2964,11 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Erica Smith", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Heath Shuler", "probability": 0.02, @@ -3024,17 +2985,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8269230769230769, + "probability": 0.8446601941747572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.14423076923076922, + "probability": 0.11650485436893203, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.038834951456310676, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3048,42 +3009,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.7452830188679245, + "probability": 0.7090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.23636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3145,37 +3106,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mo Brooks", - "probability": 0.6796116504854368, + "probability": 0.657142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katie Britt", - "probability": 0.1650485436893204, + "probability": 0.1619047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lynda Blanchard", - "probability": 0.058252427184466014, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Merrill", - "probability": 0.058252427184466014, + "probability": 0.05714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Sessions", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Shelby", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Moore", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3189,7 +3150,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bill Peduto", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3267,7 +3228,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3287,7 +3248,7 @@ }, { "name": "1.675M to 1.7M", - "probability": 0.2685185185185185, + "probability": 0.24074074074074073, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3302,7 +3263,7 @@ }, { "name": "1.75M to 1.775M", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3312,7 +3273,7 @@ }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3326,12 +3287,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3345,12 +3306,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat Grassley", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3360,7 +3321,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3379,37 +3340,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.22429906542056072, + "probability": 0.23809523809523808, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.719626168224299, + "probability": 0.7047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3457,52 +3418,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.4954954954954955, + "probability": 0.5229357798165136, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.07339449541284403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.08108108108108107, + "probability": 0.07339449541284403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3516,12 +3477,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3535,17 +3496,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3569,52 +3530,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.09345794392523363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.09345794392523363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.11214953271028034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.12149532710280371, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.12149532710280371, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.11214953271028034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.09345794392523363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.06542056074766354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.06542056074766354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.12149532710280371, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3628,12 +3589,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3647,7 +3608,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3657,22 +3618,22 @@ }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3692,7 +3653,7 @@ }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3706,17 +3667,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.3076923076923077, + "probability": 0.375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.36538461538461536, + "probability": 0.28846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3765,52 +3726,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.6039603960396039, + "probability": 0.657142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.16831683168316833, + "probability": 0.12380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3843,17 +3804,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jody Hice", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Raffensperger", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Belle Isle", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3887,7 +3848,7 @@ }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3901,12 +3862,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3920,16 +3881,83 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.7722772277227723, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Fried", + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Val Demings", + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Crist", + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index 2563e5d..d59b92d 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -633,12 +633,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.03896452884270871, + "probability": 0.03810107734080757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.04478681476173415, + "probability": 0.04379434177104319, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -648,37 +648,37 @@ }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.0895736295234683, + "probability": 0.08758868354208638, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.08527409530634182, + "probability": 0.08338442673206622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.07165890361877464, + "probability": 0.0700709468336691, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.10659261913292728, + "probability": 0.10423053341508279, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.09736653529201003, + "probability": 0.09520889901024789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.13176280902902188, + "probability": 0.1510028904265569, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Truss", - "probability": 0.04845933357219635, + "probability": 0.04738547779626873, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -688,7 +688,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.13176280902902188, + "probability": 0.12884295349040906, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -698,7 +698,7 @@ }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.06888212110354713, + "probability": 0.06735569764386443, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -708,7 +708,7 @@ }, { "name": "Brandon Lewis", - "probability": 0.04595127194553924, + "probability": 0.04493299465709031, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -733,7 +733,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.03896452884270871, + "probability": 0.03810107734080757, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -747,17 +747,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4026069395997797, + "probability": 0.3905262220639302, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.5463557921791813, + "probability": 0.5599679458641261, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0510372682210391, + "probability": 0.04950583207194372, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -819,22 +819,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7727187028657616, + "probability": 0.7313921917423462, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.18127828054298642, + "probability": 0.22291920232187992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.032522624434389136, + "probability": 0.032300346409512216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013480392156862742, + "probability": 0.013388259526261582, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -968,189 +968,192 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.22904211505247773, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.11066826092732829, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.10216553739869803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03693370532748771, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06815464328417696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06642752756742394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.147601966254816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.057791948983658824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06988175900092998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03693370532748771, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03015809751561047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Tarry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dawn Butler", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.04424073335990435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Miliband", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlotte Nichols", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Osborne", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Greenwood", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wes Streeting", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim McMahon", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alison McGovern", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bridget Phillipson", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1226,61 +1229,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.943211357728454, + "probability": 0.9460613886957382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.013297340531893617, + "probability": 0.012416807390483755, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.04169166166766645, + "probability": 0.039733783649548014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0009998000399920014, + "probability": 0.0009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00009998000399920013, + "probability": 0.00009933445912387005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1294,12 +1297,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4269662921348315, + "probability": 0.43361097501224893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5730337078651686, + "probability": 0.5663890249877511, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1313,12 +1316,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street", - "probability": 0.7110095852369436, + "probability": 0.7692382244621051, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne", - "probability": 0.28899041476305654, + "probability": 0.23076177553789493, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1390,22 +1393,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5249910746162084, + "probability": 0.543215174663119, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3432702606212067, + "probability": 0.33010042056475836, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08925383791503035, + "probability": 0.08582954252853832, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.04248482684755444, + "probability": 0.040854862243584235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1419,12 +1422,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.6696525248548085, + "probability": 0.6850305021116846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.33034747514519147, + "probability": 0.31496949788831535, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1527,12 +1530,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17627357659086904, + "probability": 0.17491691446562882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8237264234091309, + "probability": 0.8250830855343712, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1838,12 +1841,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5171304183229226, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48286958167707744, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1905,12 +1908,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4664641271325076, + "probability": 0.3476521573483189, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5335358728674924, + "probability": 0.6523478426516811, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2141,47 +2144,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.18174880069777583, + "probability": 0.18046984951824185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.21380287832533795, + "probability": 0.2122983652701093, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.11600523331879632, + "probability": 0.11518891414961567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.02474923680767553, + "probability": 0.024575078488686803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.010902747492368076, + "probability": 0.010826025765941322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.03761447884866986, + "probability": 0.037349788892497564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06410815525512428, + "probability": 0.06365703150373497, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 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@@ -2290,17 +2293,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.9088631984585742, + "probability": 0.8967140570567743, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.028323699421965318, + "probability": 0.027681009321156202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.012813102119460502, + "probability": 0.01449957631108182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2310,17 +2313,17 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.045857418111753374, + "probability": 0.05705677431503625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0009633911368015415, + "probability": 0.0009415309292910274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.003179190751445087, + "probability": 0.0031070520666603902, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2391,17 +2394,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 3", - "probability": 0.12265821604995807, + "probability": 0.1297062881923911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 3", - "probability": 0.3192282598564638, + "probability": 0.33757145673171696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 4", - "probability": 0.5581135240935782, + "probability": 0.532722255075892, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2569,32 +2572,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 45%", - "probability": 0.03227617176536626, + "probability": 0.029573118463912224, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45–49.9%", - "probability": 0.10393862849658525, + "probability": 0.09523401337219269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50–54.9%", - "probability": 0.6452427729441481, + "probability": 0.6749528544488256, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55–59.9%", - "probability": 0.14173449340443445, + "probability": 0.12986456368935367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60–64.9%", - "probability": 0.06240059874637477, + "probability": 0.05717469569689696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65% or over", - "probability": 0.014407334643091026, + "probability": 0.013200754328818788, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2627,12 +2630,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40614775271224385, + "probability": 0.45030684625806966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5938522472877561, + "probability": 0.5496931537419303, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2665,12 +2668,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8055977823482071, + "probability": 0.8070128717265868, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.19440221765179289, + "probability": 0.19298712827341322, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2732,12 +2735,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7387346791636626, + "probability": 0.7403027859894294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2612653208363374, + "probability": 0.2596972140105706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2943,12 +2946,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4642683045724871, + "probability": 0.4636832704901766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.535731695427513, + "probability": 0.5363167295098233, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3198,12 +3201,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.5012858367463567, + "probability": 0.4517169417567824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.49871416325364315, + "probability": 0.5482830582432177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3475,12 +3478,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.7903770128242215, + "probability": 0.8013886351178513, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.20962298717577862, + "probability": 0.19861136488214873, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3513,12 +3516,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.2641392809312867, + "probability": 0.24710871241326138, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.7358607190687133, + "probability": 0.7528912875867386, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3627,12 +3630,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6086794561370833, + "probability": 0.6785079928952042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.3913205438629168, + "probability": 0.32149200710479575, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3727,12 +3730,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5555649383550075, + "probability": 0.6274678111587982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.44443506164499236, + "probability": 0.3725321888412017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3989,12 +3992,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.6174792531120332, + "probability": 0.6225690890481065, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3825207468879668, + "probability": 0.3774309109518936, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4108,27 +4111,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5112900058904379, + "probability": 0.40807088510064526, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": 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"Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.5364893412713655, + "probability": 0.5636033491374962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.32657960437872097, + "probability": 0.35771209522848785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.017476473977338203, + "probability": 0.018359729647937053, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4340,12 +4343,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.10668331092759747, + "probability": 0.045899324119842634, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.012771269444977917, + "probability": 0.014425501866236255, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4359,22 +4362,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.41130265535937716, + "probability": 0.4505287744112113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.2500347560127902, + "probability": 0.2333744241873743, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.13116919227026275, + "probability": 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"probability": 0.35902578796561607, + "probability": 0.26442966151438074, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4595,22 +4598,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 5.0%", - "probability": 0.548325541455968, + "probability": 0.6208553580009611, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5.0–9.9%", - "probability": 0.2890945520465605, + "probability": 0.24267179240749642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10.0–19.9%", - "probability": 0.1109626943993894, + "probability": 0.09314432164023709, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20.0% or over", - "probability": 0.05161721209808225, + "probability": 0.04332852795130547, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4624,12 +4627,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.7221203228173148, + "probability": 0.689492119089317, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.2778796771826853, + "probability": 0.31050788091068304, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4643,12 +4646,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.8183304568989009, + "probability": 0.9265658747300216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh", - "probability": 0.1816695431010991, + "probability": 0.07343412526997839, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4662,12 +4665,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.8183304568989009, + "probability": 0.8196736092327112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.1816695431010991, + "probability": 0.1803263907672888, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4719,17 +4722,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.7823550212164073, + "probability": 0.760963026655202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.11943069306930693, + "probability": 0.11616509028374891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.0982142857142857, + "probability": 0.12287188306104899, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.json b/data/williamhill-questions.json index c035b8e..63287a5 100644 --- a/data/williamhill-questions.json +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.json @@ -1,78 +1,96 @@ [ { - "title": "Labour", + "title": "Sadiq Khan", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5555555555555556, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4444444444444444, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "Conservatives", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47619047619047616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.029411764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.9705882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.02941176470588236, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "Reform UK", + "title": "Brian Rose", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9803921568627451, + "probability": 0.9523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "SDP", + "title": "Shaun Bailey", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Sian Berry", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Luisa Porritt", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Laurence Fox", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -90,25 +108,7 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "Liberal Democrats", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.00398406374501992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9960159362549801, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "Heritage Party", + "title": "Kam Balayev", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "Women's Equality Party", + "title": "David Kurten", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -144,7 +144,7 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "UKIP", + "title": "Count Binface", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "North East Party", + "title": "Richard Hewison", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -180,7 +180,7 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "Samantha Lee (Ind)", + "title": "Piers Corbyn", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ @@ -198,18 +198,293 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials", + "title": "Farah London", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "options": [ { - "name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040", - "probability": 0.6086956521739131, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040", - "probability": 0.391304347826087, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Peter Gammons", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + 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"Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Drillminister", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Valerie Brown", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Niko Omilana", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Steve Kelleher", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Vanessa Hudson", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave?", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Gavin Williamson", + "probability": 0.16408642733713108, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Hancock", + "probability": 0.08790344321632022, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alok Sharma", + "probability": 0.08204321366856554, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Priti Patel", + "probability": 0.08204321366856554, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Wallace", + "probability": 0.06836934472380461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robert Buckland", + "probability": 0.04733262327032628, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.04733262327032628, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Therese Coffey", + "probability": 0.03619553544201421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robert Jenrick", + "probability": 0.03619553544201421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Truss", + "probability": 0.03619553544201421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brandon Lewis", + "probability": 0.03619553544201421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alister Jack", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Grant Shapps", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amanda Milling", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Oliver Dowden", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Simon Hart", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Eustice", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Baroness Evans", + "probability": 0.029301147738773407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rishi Sunak", + "probability": 0.02366631163516314, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dominic Raab", + "probability": 0.02366631163516314, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Gove", + "probability": 0.02366631163516314, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -538,6 +813,130 @@ ], "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "Most Seats in General Election", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.5894327152386443, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.39000059354135863, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Reform UK", + "probability": 0.006134115295766403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrat", + "probability": 0.006134115295766403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "UKIP", + "probability": 0.004608215968461327, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greens", + "probability": 0.0036902446600028953, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Hartlepool By-Election Winner", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Conservatives", + "probability": 0.5513240186053462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.3958223723320434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker", + "probability": 0.017462751720531328, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Reform UK", + "probability": 0.008817825126208888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Samantha Lee (Ind)", + "probability": 0.008817825126208888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "SDP", + "probability": 0.0035482085169207082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greens", + "probability": 0.0035482085169207082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrats", + "probability": 0.0035482085169207082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heritage Party", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Women's Equality Party", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "UKIP", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "North East Party", + "probability": 0.0017776453847247458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040", + "probability": 0.6086956521739131, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040", + "probability": 0.391304347826087, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "Boris Johnson Exit Date", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -907,119 +1306,6 @@ ], "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "Next London Mayoral Election", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.8736088652213292, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.04326443903953249, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.04326443903953249, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sian Berry", - "probability": 0.004520165272786977, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.004520165272786977, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.003619733943546543, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kam Balayev", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Hewison", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nims Obunge", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Max Fosh", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Drillminister", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valerie Brown", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Niko Omilana", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Kelleher", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vanessa Hudson", - "probability": 0.0018134794806989665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -1058,44 +1344,6 @@ ], "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "Most Seats in General Election", - "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", - "platform": "WilliamHill", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5894327152386443, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.39000059354135863, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.006134115295766403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.006134115295766403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.004608215968461327, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.0036902446600028953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "Next Permanent Scottish First Minister", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -1378,72 +1626,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4946254386960333, + "probability": 0.5392435227058505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.12365635967400833, + "probability": 0.1258234886313651, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.09892508773920666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.06744892345855, + "probability": 0.06863099379892643, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.06744892345855, + "probability": 0.06863099379892643, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Raymond McGuire", + "probability": 0.047183808236761916, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.035330388478288094, + "probability": 0.03594956818039003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.028536083001694232, + "probability": 0.02903618968416118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.021821710530707354, + "probability": 0.02220414505259384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.014547807020471568, + "probability": 0.014802763368395895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.014547807020471568, + "probability": 0.014802763368395895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.011073703851403731, + "probability": 0.011267775101316277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cleopatra Fitzgerald", - "probability": 0.0073459223568717825, + "probability": 0.007474662690972185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Pepitone", - "probability": 0.0073459223568717825, + "probability": 0.007474662690972185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abbey Laurel-Smith", - "probability": 0.0073459223568717825, + "probability": 0.007474662690972185, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1456,22 +1704,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7894110347590826, + "probability": 0.8040294964941207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.16403346176812106, + "probability": 0.13915895131629014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.04296114474879361, + "probability": 0.05320783432681681, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.0035943587240026527, + "probability": 0.0036037178627724535, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/src/index.js b/src/index.js index 1ec7d69..b2a7a9a 100644 --- a/src/index.js +++ b/src/index.js @@ -89,17 +89,28 @@ let whattodoMessage = "What do you want to do?\n" + Choose one option, wisely: #`) .join("\n") +let tryCatchTryAgain = async (fun) => { + try{ + console.log("Initial try") + await fun() + }catch (error) { + console.log("Second try") + console.log(error) + await fun() + } +} + let executeoption = async (option) => { option = Number(option) //console.log(functionNames[option]) if(option < 0){ console.log("Error, ${option} < 0") }else if(option < functions.length){ - functions[option]() + await tryCatchTryAgain(functions[option]) } else if(option == functions.length){ for(let fun of functions){ console.log(fun.name) - await fun() + await tryCatchTryAgain(fun) } } }