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feat: webpage refactor

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33
packages/webpage-refactor/README.md Normal file
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## About
This repository creates a react webpage that allows to extract a utility function from possibly inconsistent binary comparisons. It presents the users with a series of elements to compare, using merge-sort in the background to cleverly minimize the number of choices needed. Then, it cleverly aggregates them, by taking each element as a reference point in turn, and computing the possible distances from that reference point to all other points, and taking the geometric mean of these distances. This produces a number representing the value of each element, such that the ratios between elements represent the user's preferences: a utility function!
Initially, users could only input numbers, e.g., "A is `3` times better than B". But now, users can also input distributions, using the [squiggle](https://www.squiggle-language.com/) syntax, e.g., "A is `1 to 10` times better than B", or "A is `mm(normal(1, 10), uniform(0,100))` better than B".
## Object structure
The core structure is json array of objects. Only the "name" attribute is required. If there is a "url", it is displayed nicely.
```
[
{
"name": "Peter Parker",
"someOptionalKey": "...",
"anotherMoreOptionalKey": "...",
},
{
"name": "Spiderman",
"someOptionalKey": "...",
"anotherMoreOptionalKey": "..."
}
]
```
## Netlify
https://github.com/netlify/netlify-plugin-nextjs/#readme
## To do
- [ ] Extract merge, findPath and aggregatePath functionality into different repos
- [ ] Add functionality like names, etc.

42
packages/webpage-refactor/components/comparisonActuator.js Normal file
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import React, { useState } from "react";
// import { SubmitButton } from "./submitButton";
export function ComparisonActuator({ dataProps, onSubmit }) {
const [inputValue, setInputValue] = useState([]);
const onChangeInputEvent = (event) => setInputValue(event.target.value);
const onClickSubmitEvent = (event) => {
console.log(event.target.value);
onSubmit({ listOfElements: dataProps.listOfElements, inputValue });
};
return (
<div className="flex m-auto w-72">
<div className="block m-auto text-center">
<br />
<label>
{`... is `}
<br />
<input
type="text"
className="text-center text-blueGray-600 bg-white rounded text-lg border-0 shadow outline-none focus:outline-none focus:ring w-8/12 h-10 m-2"
value={inputValue}
onChange={onChangeInputEvent}
/>
<br />
{`times as valuable as ...`}
</label>
<br />
<button
className={
!true
? "bg-transparent hover:bg-blue-500 text-blue-700 font-semibold hover:text-white py-2 px-4 border border-blue-500 hover:border-transparent rounded mt-5"
: "bg-transparent text-blue-700 font-semibold py-2 px-4 border border-blue-500 rounded mt-5"
}
onClick={onClickSubmitEvent}
>
Submit
</button>
</div>
</div>
);
}

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packages/webpage-refactor/components/displayElementForComparison.js Normal file
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import React from "react";
let capitalizeFirstLetter = (string) =>
string.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + string.slice(1);
export function DisplayElementForComparison({ element }) {
let otherkeys = Object.keys(element).filter(
(key) =>
key != "name" && key != "url" && key != "id" && key != "isReferenceValue"
);
let othervalues = otherkeys.map((key) => element[key]);
let otherpairs = otherkeys.map((key, i) => ({
key: capitalizeFirstLetter(key),
value: othervalues[i],
}));
if (element.url) {
return (
<div className="flex m-auto border-gray-300 border-4 h-72 w-72 p-5">
<div className="block m-auto text-center">
<div>
{/*<a href={element.url} target="_blank">*/}
<h2>{`${element.name}`}</h2>
{/*</a>*/}
{otherpairs.map((pair) => (
<p key={pair.value}>{`${pair.key}: ${pair.value}`}</p>
))}
<p>
<a href={element.url} target="_blank">
More info
</a>
</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
);
} else {
return (
<div className="flex m-auto border-gray-300 border-4 h-72 w-72 p-5">
<div className="block m-auto text-center">
<div>
<h2>{`${element.name}`}</h2>
{otherpairs.map((pair) => (
<p key={pair.value}>{`${pair.key}: ${pair.value}`}</p>
))}
</div>
</div>
</div>
);
}
}

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packages/webpage-refactor/components/homepage.js Normal file
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import React, { useState } from "react";
import { Title } from "./title.js";
import { ProgressIndicator } from "./progressIndicator.js";
import { DisplayElementForComparison } from "./displayElementForComparison.js";
import { ComparisonActuator } from "./comparisonActuator.js";
export function Homepage({ listOfElementsInit }) {
/* Statefull elements */
const [listOfElements, setListOfElements] = useState(listOfElementsInit);
const numStepsInit = 0;
const [numStepsNow, setNumStepsNow] = useState(numStepsInit);
const increaseNumSteps = (n) => setNumStepsNow(n + 1);
const isListOrdered = false;
const pairCurrentlyBeingComparedInit = [
listOfElementsInit[0],
listOfElementsInit[1],
];
const [pairCurrentlyBeingCompared, setPairCurrentlyBeingCompared] = useState(
pairCurrentlyBeingComparedInit
);
const changePairCurrentlyBeingCompared = (element1, element2) =>
setPairCurrentlyBeingCompared([element1, element2]);
const chooseNextPairToCompareRandomly = ({ listOfElements }) => {
let l = listOfElements.length;
let n1 = Math.floor(Math.random() * l - 0.001) % l;
let n2 = (n1 + 1 + Math.floor(Math.random() * l)) % l;
changePairCurrentlyBeingCompared(listOfElements[n1], listOfElements[n2]);
};
return (
<div>
<Title />
<ProgressIndicator
numStepsNow={numStepsNow}
numElements={listOfElements.length}
/>
{/* Comparisons section */}
<div className={isListOrdered ? "hidden" : ""}>
<div className="flex flex-wrap items-center max-w-4xl sm:w-full mt-10">
<DisplayElementForComparison
element={pairCurrentlyBeingCompared[0]}
></DisplayElementForComparison>
<ComparisonActuator
dataProps={{ listOfElements }}
onSubmit={chooseNextPairToCompareRandomly}
/>
<DisplayElementForComparison
element={pairCurrentlyBeingCompared[1]}
></DisplayElementForComparison>
</div>
<br />
<br />
</div>
</div>
);
}

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packages/webpage-refactor/components/progressIndicator.js Normal file
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import React, { useState } from "react";
function expectedNumMergeSortSteps(n) {
// https://cs.stackexchange.com/questions/82862/expected-number-of-comparisons-in-a-merge-step
// n-2 for each step, so (n-2) + (n-2)/2 + (n-2)/4 + ...
// ~ 2*(n-2) -1 = 2*n - 3
if (n == 0) {
return 0;
} else if (n == 1) {
return 0;
} else if (n == 2) {
return 1;
} else if (n == 3) {
return 2;
} else {
return (
Math.ceil(n ** 2 / (n + 2)) + expectedNumMergeSortSteps(Math.ceil(n / 2))
);
}
}
const firstFewMaxMergeSortSequence = [
0, 0, 1, 3, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 21, 25, 29, 33, 37, 41, 45, 49, 54, 59, 64, 69,
74, 79, 84, 89, 94, 99, 104, 109, 114, 119, 124, 129, 135, 141, 147, 153, 159,
165, 171, 177, 183, 189, 195, 201, 207, 213, 219, 225, 231, 237, 243, 249,
255, 261, 267, 273, 279, 285,
];
function maxMergeSortSteps(n) {
if (n < firstFewMaxMergeSortSequence.length) {
return firstFewMaxMergeSortSequence[n];
} else {
return (
maxMergeSortSteps(Math.floor(n / 2)) +
maxMergeSortSteps(Math.ceil(n / 2)) +
n -
1
);
}
}
export function ProgressIndicator({ numStepsNow, numElements }) {
const expectedNumSteps = expectedNumMergeSortSteps(numElements);
const maxSteps = maxMergeSortSteps(numElements);
return (
<p>{`${numStepsNow} out of ~${expectedNumSteps} (max ${maxSteps}) comparisons`}</p>
);
}

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packages/webpage-refactor/components/title.js Normal file
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import React, { useState } from "react";
export function Title() {
return <h1 className="text-6xl font-bold">Utility Function Extractor</h1>;
}

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packages/webpage-refactor/data/listForTemplate.json Normal file
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[
{
"name": "Element 1",
"url": "https://example.com/1",
"otherProp": "other prop 1"
},
{
"name": "Element 2",
"url": "https://example.com/2",
"otherProp": "other prop 2"
},
{
"name": "Element 3",
"url": "https://example.com/3",
"otherProp": "other prop 3"
},
{
"name": "Element 4",
"url": "https://example.com/4",
"otherProp": "other prop 4"
},
{
"name": "Element 5",
"url": "https://example.com/5",
"otherProp": "other prop 5"
}
]

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packages/webpage-refactor/data/listOfMoralGoods.json Normal file
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[
{
"name": "Doubling consumption for one person for one year",
"note": "at fairly low levels of wealth",
"isReferenceValue": true,
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A5:E5"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of an individual under 5 from malaria",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A8:T8"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of an individual 5 or older from malaria",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A9:T9"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of a 6- to 59-month-old child",
"note": "through Vitamin A Supplementation",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A10:T10"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of an individual under 5 from vaccine-preventable diseases",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A11:T11"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of an individual 5-14 years old from vaccine-preventable diseases",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A12:T12"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of an individual 15-49 years old from vaccine-preventable diseases",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A13:T13"
},
{
"name": "Averting the death of an individual 50-74 years old from vaccine-preventable diseases",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HsJLpq0Suf3SK_PmzzWpK1tr_BTd364j0l3xVvSCQw/edit#gid=1362437801&range=A14:T14"
}
]

47
packages/webpage-refactor/data/listOfOpenPhil2018AIRiskGrants.json Normal file
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[
{
"name": "Michael Cohen and Dmitrii Krasheninnikov — Scholarship Support (2018)",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.jnlrsr63yliq",
"amount": "$159k"
},
{
"name": "AI Impacts — General Support (2018)",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.6m6tebpouzt1",
"amount": "$100k"
},
{
"name": "Oxford University — Research on the Global Politics of AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.c6r2m7i749ay",
"amount": "$429k"
},
{
"name": "Ought — General Support (2018)",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.xnzaj48k3fdb",
"amount": "$525k"
},
{
"name": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute — AI Safety Retraining Program",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.h922w7eh5rq6",
"amount": "$150k"
},
{
"name": "UC Berkeley — AI Safety Research (2018)",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.rrsbecbboed8",
"amount": "$1.145M"
},
{
"name": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.p8xd58asz6a2",
"amount": "$1.135M"
},
{
"name": "Wilson Center — AI Policy Seminar Series",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.qiurhycylgi3",
"amount": "$400k"
},
{
"name": "Stanford University — Machine Learning Security Research Led by Dan Boneh and Florian Tramer",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VlN6I4Jauarx-0Fp7AC1ggeQ02AITsN7S56ffAO9NTU/edit#heading=h.ox8adhpgba86",
"amount": "$100k"
}
]

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packages/webpage-refactor/data/listOfResearchOutputs.json Normal file
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[
{
"name": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3PjNiLLkCMzAN2BSz/when-setting-up-a-charity-should-you-employ-a-lawyer?commentId=YNKNcp6nKqxqkZgCu"
},
{
"name": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/center-for-election-science"
},
{
"name": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nrx8GdtobScoAZF8/extinguishing-or-preventing-coal-seam-fires-is-a-potential"
},
{
"name": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SBbwzovWbghLJixPn/what-are-some-low-information-priors-that-you-find"
},
{
"name": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/twMs8xsgwnYvaowWX/database-of-orgs-relevant-to-longtermist-x-risk-work"
},
{
"name": "Reversals in Psychology",
"url": "https://www.gleech.org/psych"
},
{
"name": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building"
},
{
"name": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations"
},
{
"name": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pxALB46SEkwNbfiNS/the-motivated-reasoning-critique-of-effective-altruism"
},
{
"name": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585",
"isReferenceValue": true
},
{
"name": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"url": "https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf"
},
{
"name": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"url": "https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/research-agenda/"
},
{
"name": "Superintelligence",
"url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence%3A_Paths%2C_Dangers%2C_Strategies"
},
{
"name": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking%2C_Fast_and_Slow"
},
{
"name": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Mathematical_Theory_of_Communication"
}
]

483
packages/webpage-refactor/data/results/research/comparisons/finn-moorhouse.json Normal file
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[
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": "Seems like both sets of ideas would've happened eventually, my guess is that information theory was more important and counterfactual sped up by more"
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": "200",
"reasoning": "Yeah yeah I know I'm contradicting myself"
},
{
"source": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": "60",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": "4",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": "4",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 200,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": 1.4285714285714286,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": "4",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"distance": "3",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "4",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "3",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 1.6666666666666667,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": "8",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
}
]

534
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@ -0,0 +1,534 @@
[
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": "100",
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": "100"
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 1000
},
{
"source": "Superintelligence",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 10
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 10
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 10
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{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
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"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 100
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{
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{
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"reasoning": "",
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},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 100
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 10
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 10,
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"squiggleString": 10
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": "\nDatabase just saves a bit of time, maybe 100 counterfactual applications",
"squiggleString": "5"
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{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": "",
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{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
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"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 10
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 2
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 1000
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
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"reasoning": "",
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},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
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"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 200
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{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": 20,
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},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "50",
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": "50"
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "50",
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": "50"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": "10"
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 1
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 1000
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 100
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 100
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 100
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 99999.99999999999,
"reasoning": "",
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"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
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"reasoning": "",
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{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
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"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
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{
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"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "",
"squiggleString": 100
}
]

372
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[
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "GPI: good stuff but v v hard questions read by ~200.\nSuperintelligence: Maybe 50,000 copies? associated interview tour transformed the field."
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": "100",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Superintelligence",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
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"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "RiP: Cleaning up 10,000 people's brains a bit.\nMPS: far more important topic"
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": "\nDatabase just saves a bit of time, maybe 100 counterfactual applications"
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": 200,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "50",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "50",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 99999.99999999999,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": "1000",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 10000,
"reasoning": ""
}
]

224
packages/webpage-refactor/data/results/research/comparisons/jaime-sevilla.json Normal file
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[
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": "Jaime Sevilla\nThinking Fast and Slow is a recounting of the evidence about cogsci at the time, and large parts are already outdated.\nTMToC is an enduring piece of theory that kickstarted a new field "
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": "Jaime Sevilla\nI am unsure about the quality difference, but Superintelligence has had a far wider reach"
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": "Thinking Fast and Slow has had wider reach, and is a good synthesis of the field."
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": "1.1",
"reasoning": "Jaime Sevilla\nSuperintelligence gave prominence to the AI Safety field, possibly bringing forward research timelines a few years.\nThinking Fast and Slow made CogSci available to many people.\nLarge parts of both books are now outdated"
},
{
"source": "Superintelligence",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 1000,
"reasoning": "Jaime Sevilla\nTMToC has stood the test of time"
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 33.333333333333336,
"reasoning": "TVWH has had wider reach"
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": "Shallow evaluations contains more object level information"
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "Goodhart contains more insight"
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": "Goodhart contains more insights"
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "GPIRA has presumably helped at least GPI set its agenda, and possibly other newcomers to the field.\nThe motivated reasoning critique might have helped some EAs by reiterating a core message"
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 12.5,
"reasoning": "GPIRA helped GPI set their priorities and decompose the problem, shallow evaluations is an experiment on institution evaluation which might result in more work later (I feel like I am not getting at the true reason for my scoring here)"
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 1.1111111111111112,
"reasoning": "Research agendas can mobilize more talent, they can be a multiplier.\nBut Goodhearts law is tangible progress on a problem.\nOverall Im confused"
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": "vulnerable world had wider reach, and inspired more people"
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": "Thinking fast and slow reached more people"
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": "I have heard more discussion of reversals than of AMPSMB"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "I learned a couple of things in the low-information priors post but I think curating databases is very very helpful"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 1.25,
"reasoning": "I personally learned more from low information priors, but I havent engaged with patient spending enough to evaluate its value"
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 1.1111111111111112,
"reasoning": "I think its slighly more likely I will build on top of the patient spending than on top of the database"
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "Coal article seems more in-depth reasoning "
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "I imagine the wiki stub will reach more people"
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": 25,
"reasoning": "I learned more from low info priors"
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": 12.5,
"reasoning": "Learned more from low info priors"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "1.5",
"reasoning": "I learned more from low info priors but I expect I would learn more if I engaged with coal seam fires"
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "1.5",
"reasoning": "Database seems more reemplazable"
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 1.1111111111111112,
"reasoning": "I have no idea of which one would be more useful to me if I engaged with them\nI guess patient spending is more related to my work"
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "The motivated reasoning critique is better at setting a good culture"
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 12.5,
"reasoning": "The motivated reasoning critique is better at setting a good culture"
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "1.1",
"reasoning": "I learned more from priors, critique is better at setting a culture"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "Shallow evaluations has more object level content"
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 1.1111111111111112,
"reasoning": "Shallow evaluations contains more crystallized reasoning"
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "1.8",
"reasoning": "I expect I would learn more from coal seam if I engaged with it"
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 12.5,
"reasoning": "Goodhart is more hard-to-replace progress "
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": "Goodheart feels like more hard-to-replace progress"
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": "reversals has had more reach"
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "3",
"reasoning": "reversals has had more reach"
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "1.5",
"reasoning": "Reversals has had more reach"
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 1.4285714285714286,
"reasoning": "Oof Im stumped.\nI think thinking fast and slow is enough of a good crystallization of knowledge I am giving it the nod, even though reversals in psychology might have a better insight compression rate"
}
]

351
packages/webpage-refactor/data/results/research/comparisons/linch-zhang.json Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,351 @@
[
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": "This is by Linch."
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": "50",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 50,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "3",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 1.3333333333333333,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "1.5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "1.5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 14.285714285714285,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 16.666666666666668,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
}
]

399
packages/webpage-refactor/data/results/research/comparisons/misha-yagudin.json Normal file
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[
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 10000,
"reasoning": "Information theory is fundamental. Thinking Fast and Slow is somewhat wrong and not as important in a grand scheme of things. It offered some meta cognitive skills but... They don't seem that valuable 5+y later."
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": "Misha Yagudin\n\nHard choice. Mostly intuition about how many times AI is more important and relative difference in how foundational it have been.\n\n\n\n"
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": "100",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "Or something like that. "
},
{
"source": "Superintelligence",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": "Misha\n\nI know I am incoherent...\n\nBut SI is less fundamental but still important"
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 33.333333333333336,
"reasoning": "VWH is the best argument against liberty. GL is good paper but clearly less important. "
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "Misha \n\nI think the later might be more influential via CEA community health team. But low chances.\n\nAs a research direction the first is more important. But it feels inconsequential."
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "AI stuff is more important; AI stuff gives more general mental models"
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": "Or something. AI is more important and more generalizable but community meta is still fairly important. \n\nI think meta will target worse thinkers on average hence difference."
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 66.66666666666667,
"reasoning": "It's a bit hard. I am fairly dismissive of TFaS but it's a book and some ideas are good."
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 25,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "15",
"reasoning": "Clearly more important for the world saving."
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": "Hard call. VWH feels more urgent than GPI RA. But I tried to disentangle agenda as a piece from its role as a necessary tool for field building. I sorta think that VWH agenda would have been x10+ more valuable per its more immediate focus and applicability to policy."
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "SI is field building, deeper and about AI."
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "3",
"reasoning": "I sorta think that knowing that some psychology is totally fabricated &c is useful for not relying on it in your reasoning about the world and some of these were fairly fundamental. Also another update about quality of social sciences.\n\nI think some updates are clearly x10+ more important but value of categorising them is not as much.\n\nI am not sure how valuable are econ models, tbh."
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "Dunno nothing new to me in the priors question but Pablo's comment which is fairly trivial and I haven't used/thought about it since.\n"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 500,
"reasoning": "Sorta even worse"
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": "not sure; the later seems more consequential in the future"
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": "No idea how good the later is but Wiki is not particularly insightful. I think think tags for orgs are obv less useful than tags for cause areas. "
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": "idk man seems like a random comment might be consequential but let's not count it as research"
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": "I like the later more but both are just lists which turned out not to be of much use to me. I think others will enjoy priors more."
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": "I think lists are cool. But maybe we would have it anyway via tags and maybe fires are actually good.\n\n"
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 10000,
"reasoning": "idk"
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 200,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": 10,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": "2",
"reasoning": "hard call"
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 1.4285714285714286,
"reasoning": ""
}
]

351
packages/webpage-refactor/data/results/research/comparisons/ozzie-gooen.json Normal file
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[
{
"source": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"target": "The Mathematical Theory of Communication",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Superintelligence",
"target": "Thinking Fast and Slow",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 33.333333333333336,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"distance": "3",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"distance": 1,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 100,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": 16.666666666666668,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"distance": "5",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 16.666666666666668,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"distance": "1",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"distance": 20,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"distance": 5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 25,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"distance": 2,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A comment on setting up a charity",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 500,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 142.85714285714286,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 166.66666666666666,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 16.666666666666668,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 14.285714285714285,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building",
"target": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"distance": 2.5,
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "10",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "20",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "70",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "30",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis",
"target": "Reversals in Psychology",
"distance": "1",
"reasoning": ""
},
{
"source": "Reversals in Psychology",
"target": "Superintelligence",
"distance": 3.3333333333333335,
"reasoning": ""
}
]

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5
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[[plugins]]
package = "@netlify/plugin-nextjs"
[build]
publish = ".next"

27
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{
"name": "utility-function-extractor",
"version": "0.6.1",
"private": true,
"scripts": {
"dev": "next dev",
"build": "next build",
"start": "next start"
},
"dependencies": {
"axios": "^0.21.4",
"d3": "^6.7.0",
"next": "latest",
"path": "^0.12.7",
"react": "^17.0.1",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.3.1",
"react-dom": "^17.0.1",
"react-markdown": "^6.0.2",
"remark-gfm": "^1.0.0"
},
"devDependencies": {
"@netlify/plugin-nextjs": "^4.2.1",
"autoprefixer": "^10.4.0",
"postcss": "^8.4.4",
"tailwindcss": "^2.2.19"
}
}

24
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// import 'tailwindcss/tailwind.css'
import "tailwindcss/tailwind.css";
import "../styles/globals.css";
import Head from "next/head";
function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }) {
return (
<div className="flex flex-col items-center justify-center min-h-screen py-2">
{/* Webpage name & favicon */}
<div className="mt-20">
<Head>
<title>Utility Function Extractor</title>
<link rel="icon" href="/favicon.ico" />
</Head>
{/* Content */}
<main className="flex flex-col items-center w-full flex-1 px-20 text-center">
<Component {...pageProps} />
</main>
</div>
</div>
);
}
export default MyApp;

31
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/* Notes */
// This function is just a simple wrapper around lib/comparisonView.
// Most of the time, I'll want to edit that instead
/* Imports */
import React from "react";
import fs from "fs";
import path from "path";
import { Homepage } from "../components/homepage.js";
/* Definitions */
const elementsDocument = "../data/listOfMoralGoods.json";
/* React components */
export async function getStaticProps() {
const directory = path.join(process.cwd(), "pages");
let listOfElementsInit = JSON.parse(
fs.readFileSync(path.join(directory, elementsDocument), "utf8")
);
return {
props: {
listOfElementsInit,
},
};
}
// Main react component
export default function Home({ listOfElementsInit }) {
return <Homepage listOfElementsInit={listOfElementsInit} />;
}

31
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/* Notes */
// This function is just a simple wrapper around lib/comparisonView.
// Most of the time, I'll want to edit that instead
/* Imports */
import React from "react";
import fs from "fs";
import path from "path";
import Homepage from "../lib/comparisonView.js";
/* Definitions */
const elementsDocument = "../data/listForTemplate.json";
/* React components */
export async function getStaticProps() {
const directory = path.join(process.cwd(), "pages");
let listOfElementsForView = JSON.parse(
fs.readFileSync(path.join(directory, elementsDocument), "utf8")
);
return {
props: {
listOfElementsForView,
},
};
}
// Main react component
export default function Home({ listOfElementsForView }) {
return <ComparisonView listOfElementsForView={listOfElementsForView} />;
}

6
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module.exports = {
plugins: {
tailwindcss: {},
autoprefixer: {},
},
}

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4
packages/webpage-refactor/public/vercel.svg Normal file
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<svg width="283" height="64" viewBox="0 0 283 64" fill="none"
xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
<path d="M141.04 16c-11.04 0-19 7.2-19 18s8.96 18 20 18c6.67 0 12.55-2.64 16.19-7.09l-7.65-4.42c-2.02 2.21-5.09 3.5-8.54 3.5-4.79 0-8.86-2.5-10.37-6.5h28.02c.22-1.12.35-2.28.35-3.5 0-10.79-7.96-17.99-19-17.99zm-9.46 14.5c1.25-3.99 4.67-6.5 9.45-6.5 4.79 0 8.21 2.51 9.45 6.5h-18.9zM248.72 16c-11.04 0-19 7.2-19 18s8.96 18 20 18c6.67 0 12.55-2.64 16.19-7.09l-7.65-4.42c-2.02 2.21-5.09 3.5-8.54 3.5-4.79 0-8.86-2.5-10.37-6.5h28.02c.22-1.12.35-2.28.35-3.5 0-10.79-7.96-17.99-19-17.99zm-9.45 14.5c1.25-3.99 4.67-6.5 9.45-6.5 4.79 0 8.21 2.51 9.45 6.5h-18.9zM200.24 34c0 6 3.92 10 10 10 4.12 0 7.21-1.87 8.8-4.92l7.68 4.43c-3.18 5.3-9.14 8.49-16.48 8.49-11.05 0-19-7.2-19-18s7.96-18 19-18c7.34 0 13.29 3.19 16.48 8.49l-7.68 4.43c-1.59-3.05-4.68-4.92-8.8-4.92-6.07 0-10 4-10 10zm82.48-29v46h-9V5h9zM36.95 0L73.9 64H0L36.95 0zm92.38 5l-27.71 48L73.91 5H84.3l17.32 30 17.32-30h10.39zm58.91 12v9.69c-1-.29-2.06-.49-3.2-.49-5.81 0-10 4-10 10V51h-9V17h9v9.2c0-5.08 5.91-9.2 13.2-9.2z" fill="#000"/>
</svg>
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56
packages/webpage-refactor/styles/globals.css Normal file
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@tailwind base;
@tailwind components;
@tailwind utilities;
html,
body {
padding: 0;
margin: 0;
background-color: #ECECF1;
font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen,
Ubuntu, Cantarell, Fira Sans, Droid Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif;
}
* {
box-sizing: border-box;
}
h1 {
font-size: 24px;
font-weight: bold;
margin-bottom: 10px;
color: #1F2937;
}
h2 {
font-size: 20px;
font-weight: bold;
margin-top: 10px;
margin-bottom: 10px;
color: #1F2937;
}
h3 {
font-weight: bold;
margin-top: 5px;
margin-bottom: 5px;
color: #1F2937;
}
a {
color: blue;
text-decoration: underline;
}
p, ul {
margin-bottom: 10px;
}
ul {
list-style-type: square;
margin-left: 20px;
}
th, td {
font-size: 17px;
}

11
packages/webpage-refactor/tailwind.config.js Normal file
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module.exports = {
purge: ['./pages/**/*.{js,ts,jsx,tsx}', './components/**/*.{js,ts,jsx,tsx}'],
darkMode: false, // or 'media' or 'class'
theme: {
extend: {},
},
variants: {
extend: {},
},
plugins: [],
}

2677
packages/webpage-refactor/yarn.lock Normal file
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