continue nuclear recovery modelling.

This commit is contained in:
NunoSempere 2023-08-11 14:26:29 +02:00
parent 2096b363bd
commit fc17561028
4 changed files with 61 additions and 3 deletions

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@ -8,13 +8,37 @@ double laplace(double successes, double trials){
return (successes + 1)/(trials + 2); return (successes + 1)/(trials + 2);
} }
double yearly_probability_nuclear_apocalypse(double year, uint64_t* seed) double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(double year, uint64_t* seed)
{ {
double successes = 0; double successes = 0;
double failures = (year - 1960); double failures = (year - 1960);
return sample_laplace(successes, failures, seed);
// ^ can change to (successes + 1)/(trials + 2)
// to get a probability,
// rather than sampling from a distribution over probabilities.
}
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023(uint64_t* seed){
return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023, seed);
} }
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(double year, double rebuilding_period_length_years, uint64_t* seed){
// assumption: nuclear
double successes = 1.0;
double failures = (year - rebuilding_period_length_years - 1960);
return sample_laplace(successes, failures, seed);
}
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example(uint64_t* seed){
double year = 2070;
double rebuilding_period_length_years =30;
// So, there was a nuclear collapse in 2040,
// then a recovery period of 30 years
// and it's now 2070
return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(year, rebuilding_period_length_years, seed);
}
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(uint64_t* seed){
return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023, seed)/2;
}
int main() int main()
{ {
@ -22,7 +46,40 @@ int main()
uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t)); uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
*seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0 *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
int n = 1000 * 1000; int num_samples = 1000000;
// Before a first nuclear collapse
printf("## Before the first nuclear collapse\n");
struct c_i c_i_90_2023 = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023, seed);
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90_2023.low, c_i_90_2023.high);
double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023(seed);
}
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples, num_samples));
// After the first nuclear collapse
printf("\n## After the first nuclear collapse\n");
struct c_i c_i_90_2070 = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example, seed);
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90_2070.low, c_i_90_2070.high);
double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example(seed);
}
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples, num_samples));
// After the first nuclear collapse (antiinductive)
printf("\n## After the first nuclear collapse (antiinductive)\n");
struct c_i c_i_90_antiinductive = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive, seed);
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90_antiinductive.low, c_i_90_antiinductive.high);
double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(seed);
}
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples, num_samples));
free(seed); free(seed);
} }

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@ -135,6 +135,7 @@ double sample_beta(double a, double b, uint64_t* seed)
} }
double sample_laplace(double successes, double failures, uint64_t* seed){ double sample_laplace(double successes, double failures, uint64_t* seed){
// see <https://wikiless.esmailelbob.xyz/wiki/Beta_distribution?lang=en#Rule_of_succession>
return sample_beta(successes + 1, failures + 1, seed); return sample_beta(successes + 1, failures + 1, seed);
} }