From fc17561028ba7f1106e807788484077e1c4763e2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: NunoSempere <nuno.sempere@protonmail.com>
Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2023 14:26:29 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] continue nuclear recovery modelling.

---
 examples/08_nuclear_war/example        | Bin 22448 -> 22672 bytes
 examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example   | Bin 0 -> 22944 bytes
 examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example.c |  63 +++++++++++++++++++++++--
 squiggle.c                             |   1 +
 4 files changed, 61 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)
 create mode 100755 examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example

diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example
index 47874565c39358521080f3b9ddceabe77de8f5fb..8df8418cbb9c1e2bb2e6352217827f24f1636b91 100755
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diff --git a/examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example b/examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example
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HcmV?d00001

diff --git a/examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example.c b/examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example.c
index 88a4746..670355d 100644
--- a/examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example.c
+++ b/examples/10_nuclear_recovery/example.c
@@ -8,13 +8,37 @@ double laplace(double successes, double trials){
 	return (successes + 1)/(trials + 2);
 }
 
-double yearly_probability_nuclear_apocalypse(double year, uint64_t* seed)
+double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(double year, uint64_t* seed)
 {
 	double successes = 0;
 	double failures = (year - 1960);
-
+	return sample_laplace(successes, failures, seed); 
+	// ^ can change to (successes + 1)/(trials + 2) 
+	// to get a probability, 
+	// rather than sampling from a distribution over probabilities.
+}
+double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023(uint64_t* seed){
+	return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023, seed);
 }
 
+double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(double year, double rebuilding_period_length_years, uint64_t* seed){
+	// assumption: nuclear 
+	double successes = 1.0;
+	double failures = (year - rebuilding_period_length_years - 1960);
+	return sample_laplace(successes, failures, seed);
+}
+double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example(uint64_t* seed){
+	double year = 2070;
+	double rebuilding_period_length_years =30;
+	// So, there was a nuclear collapse in 2040, 
+	// then a recovery period of 30 years
+	// and it's now 2070
+	return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(year, rebuilding_period_length_years, seed);
+}
+
+double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(uint64_t* seed){
+	return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023, seed)/2;
+}
 
 int main()
 {
@@ -22,7 +46,40 @@ int main()
     uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
     *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
 
-    int n = 1000 * 1000;
+    int num_samples = 1000000;
+
+		// Before a first nuclear collapse
+		printf("## Before the first nuclear collapse\n");
+    struct c_i c_i_90_2023 = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023, seed);
+    printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90_2023.low, c_i_90_2023.high);
+
+    double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
+    for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
+        yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023(seed);
+    }
+		printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples, num_samples));
+
+		// After the first nuclear collapse
+		printf("\n## After the first nuclear collapse\n");
+    struct c_i c_i_90_2070 = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example, seed);
+    printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90_2070.low, c_i_90_2070.high);
+
+    double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
+    for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
+        yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example(seed);
+    }
+		printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples, num_samples));
+
+		// After the first nuclear collapse (antiinductive)
+		printf("\n## After the first nuclear collapse (antiinductive)\n");
+    struct c_i c_i_90_antiinductive = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive, seed);
+    printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90_antiinductive.low, c_i_90_antiinductive.high);
+
+    double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
+    for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
+        yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(seed);
+    }
+		printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples, num_samples));
 
     free(seed);
 }
diff --git a/squiggle.c b/squiggle.c
index 0150b6a..adb50e8 100644
--- a/squiggle.c
+++ b/squiggle.c
@@ -135,6 +135,7 @@ double sample_beta(double a, double b, uint64_t* seed)
 }
 
 double sample_laplace(double successes, double failures, uint64_t* seed){
+	// see <https://wikiless.esmailelbob.xyz/wiki/Beta_distribution?lang=en#Rule_of_succession>
 	return sample_beta(successes + 1, failures + 1, seed);
 }