start adding nuclear probabilities

examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c

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+#include "../../squiggle.h"
+#include <stdint.h>
+#include <stdio.h>
+#include <stdlib.h>
+
+
+
+double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed){
+	double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
+	double	current_year = 2023;
+	double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year-first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
+
+	double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
+	// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
+	// 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively:
+	// https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere
+	double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed);
+	// 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
+	double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
+
+	double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * 
+		london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * 
+		informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * 
+		proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
+	return probability_of_dying;
+}
+
+double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed){
+	double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month=sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99,seed); // .0001 to .003
+	double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5
+	double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6 
+	double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95;
+
+	double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month*london_hit_conditional*informed_actors_not_able_to_escape*proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
+	return probability_of_dying;
+  
+}
+
+int main()
+{
+    // set randomness seed
+    uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
+    *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
+
+		
+		free(seed);
+}

examples/08_nuclear_war/makefile

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+# Interface: 
+#   make
+#   make build
+#   make format
+#   make run
+
+# Compiler
+CC=gcc
+# CC=tcc # <= faster compilation
+
+# Main file
+SRC=example.c ../../squiggle.c
+OUTPUT=example
+
+## Dependencies
+MATH=-lm
+
+## Flags
+DEBUG= #'-g'
+STANDARD=-std=c99
+WARNINGS=-Wall
+OPTIMIZED=-O3  #-Ofast
+# OPENMP=-fopenmp
+
+## Formatter
+STYLE_BLUEPRINT=webkit
+FORMATTER=clang-format -i -style=$(STYLE_BLUEPRINT)
+
+## make build
+build: $(SRC)
+	$(CC) $(OPTIMIZED) $(DEBUG) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+
+format: $(SRC)
+	$(FORMATTER) $(SRC)
+
+run: $(SRC) $(OUTPUT)
+	OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 ./$(OUTPUT) && echo
+
+time-linux: 
+	@echo "Requires /bin/time, found on GNU/Linux systems" && echo
+	
+	@echo "Running 100x and taking avg time $(OUTPUT)"
+	@t=$$(/usr/bin/time -f "%e" -p bash -c 'for i in {1..100}; do $(OUTPUT); done' 2>&1 >/dev/null | grep real | awk '{print $$2}' ); echo "scale=2; 1000 * $$t / 100" | bc | sed "s|^|Time using 1 thread: |" | sed 's|$$|ms|' && echo
+
+## Profiling
+
+profile-linux: 
+	echo "Requires perf, which depends on the kernel version, and might be in linux-tools package or similar"
+	echo "Must be run as sudo"
+	$(CC) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+	sudo perf record ./$(OUTPUT)
+	sudo perf report
+	rm perf.data

examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example.c

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+#include "../../../squiggle.h"
+#include <stdint.h>
+#include <stdio.h>
+#include <stdlib.h>
+
+int main()
+{
+    // set randomness seed
+    uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
+    *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
+		double firstYearRussianNuclearWeapons = 1953;
+		double	currentYear = 2023;
+
+		for(int i=0; i<10; i++){
+			double laplace_beta = sample_beta(currentYear-firstYearRussianNuclearWeapons + 1, 1, seed);
+			printf("%f\n", laplace_beta);
+		}
+		
+    free(seed);
+}

examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/makefile

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+# Interface: 
+#   make
+#   make build
+#   make format
+#   make run
+
+# Compiler
+CC=gcc
+# CC=tcc # <= faster compilation
+
+# Main file
+SRC=example.c ../../../squiggle.c
+OUTPUT=example
+
+## Dependencies
+MATH=-lm
+
+## Flags
+DEBUG= #'-g'
+STANDARD=-std=c99
+WARNINGS=-Wall
+OPTIMIZED=-O3  #-Ofast
+# OPENMP=-fopenmp
+
+## Formatter
+STYLE_BLUEPRINT=webkit
+FORMATTER=clang-format -i -style=$(STYLE_BLUEPRINT)
+
+## make build
+build: $(SRC)
+	$(CC) $(OPTIMIZED) $(DEBUG) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+
+format: $(SRC)
+	$(FORMATTER) $(SRC)
+
+run: $(SRC) $(OUTPUT)
+	OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 ./$(OUTPUT) && echo
+
+time-linux: 
+	@echo "Requires /bin/time, found on GNU/Linux systems" && echo
+	
+	@echo "Running 100x and taking avg time $(OUTPUT)"
+	@t=$$(/usr/bin/time -f "%e" -p bash -c 'for i in {1..100}; do $(OUTPUT); done' 2>&1 >/dev/null | grep real | awk '{print $$2}' ); echo "scale=2; 1000 * $$t / 100" | bc | sed "s|^|Time using 1 thread: |" | sed 's|$$|ms|' && echo
+
+## Profiling
+
+profile-linux: 
+	echo "Requires perf, which depends on the kernel version, and might be in linux-tools package or similar"
+	echo "Must be run as sudo"
+	$(CC) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+	sudo perf record ./$(OUTPUT)
+	sudo perf report
+	rm perf.data