diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example new file mode 100755 index 0000000..d5a3462 Binary files /dev/null and b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example differ diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0c31ccf --- /dev/null +++ b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +#include "../../squiggle.h" +#include +#include +#include + + + +double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed){ + double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953; + double current_year = 2023; + double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year-first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed); + + double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed); + // I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/ + // 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively: + // https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere + double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed); + // 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool + double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95% + + double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * + london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * + informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * + proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; + return probability_of_dying; +} + +double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed){ + double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month=sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99,seed); // .0001 to .003 + double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5 + double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6 + double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95; + + double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month*london_hit_conditional*informed_actors_not_able_to_escape*proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; + return probability_of_dying; + +} + +int main() +{ + // set randomness seed + uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t)); + *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0 + + + free(seed); +} diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/makefile b/examples/08_nuclear_war/makefile new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ef385f7 --- /dev/null +++ b/examples/08_nuclear_war/makefile @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +# Interface: +# make +# make build +# make format +# make run + +# Compiler +CC=gcc +# CC=tcc # <= faster compilation + +# Main file +SRC=example.c ../../squiggle.c +OUTPUT=example + +## Dependencies +MATH=-lm + +## Flags +DEBUG= #'-g' +STANDARD=-std=c99 +WARNINGS=-Wall +OPTIMIZED=-O3 #-Ofast +# OPENMP=-fopenmp + +## Formatter +STYLE_BLUEPRINT=webkit +FORMATTER=clang-format -i -style=$(STYLE_BLUEPRINT) + +## make build +build: $(SRC) + $(CC) $(OPTIMIZED) $(DEBUG) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT) + +format: $(SRC) + $(FORMATTER) $(SRC) + +run: $(SRC) $(OUTPUT) + OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 ./$(OUTPUT) && echo + +time-linux: + @echo "Requires /bin/time, found on GNU/Linux systems" && echo + + @echo "Running 100x and taking avg time $(OUTPUT)" + @t=$$(/usr/bin/time -f "%e" -p bash -c 'for i in {1..100}; do $(OUTPUT); done' 2>&1 >/dev/null | grep real | awk '{print $$2}' ); echo "scale=2; 1000 * $$t / 100" | bc | sed "s|^|Time using 1 thread: |" | sed 's|$$|ms|' && echo + +## Profiling + +profile-linux: + echo "Requires perf, which depends on the kernel version, and might be in linux-tools package or similar" + echo "Must be run as sudo" + $(CC) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT) + sudo perf record ./$(OUTPUT) + sudo perf report + rm perf.data diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example new file mode 100755 index 0000000..1c3d4e3 Binary files /dev/null and b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example differ diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example.c b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example.c new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c3e45c --- /dev/null +++ b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example.c @@ -0,0 +1,20 @@ +#include "../../../squiggle.h" +#include +#include +#include + +int main() +{ + // set randomness seed + uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t)); + *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0 + double firstYearRussianNuclearWeapons = 1953; + double currentYear = 2023; + + for(int i=0; i<10; i++){ + double laplace_beta = sample_beta(currentYear-firstYearRussianNuclearWeapons + 1, 1, seed); + printf("%f\n", laplace_beta); + } + + free(seed); +} diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/makefile b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/makefile new file mode 100644 index 0000000..989c057 --- /dev/null +++ b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/makefile @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +# Interface: +# make +# make build +# make format +# make run + +# Compiler +CC=gcc +# CC=tcc # <= faster compilation + +# Main file +SRC=example.c ../../../squiggle.c +OUTPUT=example + +## Dependencies +MATH=-lm + +## Flags +DEBUG= #'-g' +STANDARD=-std=c99 +WARNINGS=-Wall +OPTIMIZED=-O3 #-Ofast +# OPENMP=-fopenmp + +## Formatter +STYLE_BLUEPRINT=webkit +FORMATTER=clang-format -i -style=$(STYLE_BLUEPRINT) + +## make build +build: $(SRC) + $(CC) $(OPTIMIZED) $(DEBUG) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT) + +format: $(SRC) + $(FORMATTER) $(SRC) + +run: $(SRC) $(OUTPUT) + OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 ./$(OUTPUT) && echo + +time-linux: + @echo "Requires /bin/time, found on GNU/Linux systems" && echo + + @echo "Running 100x and taking avg time $(OUTPUT)" + @t=$$(/usr/bin/time -f "%e" -p bash -c 'for i in {1..100}; do $(OUTPUT); done' 2>&1 >/dev/null | grep real | awk '{print $$2}' ); echo "scale=2; 1000 * $$t / 100" | bc | sed "s|^|Time using 1 thread: |" | sed 's|$$|ms|' && echo + +## Profiling + +profile-linux: + echo "Requires perf, which depends on the kernel version, and might be in linux-tools package or similar" + echo "Must be run as sudo" + $(CC) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT) + sudo perf record ./$(OUTPUT) + sudo perf report + rm perf.data