nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/Header.md

An opinionated forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting.

• You can sign up here.
• You can also see this post on LessWrong here
• And the post is archived here

The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least four more iterations.

Feel free to use this post as a forecasting open thread.

Why is this relevant to Effective Altruism?

• Some items are immediately relevant (e.g., forecasts of famine).
• Others are projects whose success I'm cheering for, and which I think have the potential to do great amounts of good (e.g., Replication Markets).
• The remaining are relevant to the extent that cross-polination of ideas is valuable.
• Forecasting may become a powerful tool for world-optimization, and EAs may want to avail themselves of this tool.

In short, in the words of a sect of the Sith: "Through knowledge, I gain strength; through strength, I gain power; through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken."

Conflicts of interest: Marked as (c.o.i) throughout the text. Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive. In case of link rot, go here