109 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
109 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
# Analysis of some predictions about the 2018 EA Survey
|
|
|
|
Note: Conclusions unsure, because I don't know whether the target interval is 80 or 60%
|
|
|
|
## Introduction.
|
|
Some effective altruists made predictions about the 2018 EA Survey: a survey which aims to reach most people within the effective altruism movement. Here, I present the set up for the prediction making, the questions, and explain some judgement calls I made when judging the answers. Everything is written such that you can play along.
|
|
|
|
## Set up
|
|
For every question, try to come up with an interval such that you're 80% confident the answer lies in it. If you use a search engine, the surveys from previous years are fair game.
|
|
|
|
## Judgement call
|
|
In some cases, people didn't answer the question. For example, under the is.veg variable, you can have TRUE, FALSE, or NA: Not Available. If their number is respectively x, y and z, it might be a good first order approximation to estimate the actual proportion of vegetarians/vegans as x/(x+y).
|
|
|
|
However, I've decided to be extremely anal about it, and choose to define the actual proportion of people who define as vegan as x/(x+y+z). This doesn't make much of a difference in the case of plant eating, but it does in the identity politics questions.
|
|
|
|
## Questions
|
|
|
|
1. How many people do you think will take the EA survey?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they got involved in EA in 2017?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they first heard about EA from a personal contact?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they first heard about EA from LessWrong?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they are involved in a local EA group?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they have taken the Giving What We Can pledge?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they find the EA community either welcoming or very welcoming?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they find the EA community either unwelcoming or very unwelcoming?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that global poverty should be the top or near top priority?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that cause prioritisation should be the top or near top priority?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that reducing risks from AI should be the top or near top priority?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that animal welfare/rights should be the top or near top priority?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that meta charities should be the top or near top priority?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people who took the survey will be between 20 and 35 years of age?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will identify as male?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will identify as white?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they live in the US or UK?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they live in continental Europe?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they are atheist, agnostic or non-religious?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they are vegan or vegetarian?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the left or centre left?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the centre?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the right or centre right?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that they are single?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that they are employed?
|
|
|
|
1. What percent of people will say that they are a student?
|
|
|
|
## Answers
|
|
1. 22.20943613
|
|
1. 33.17990027
|
|
1. 11.73762946
|
|
1. 15.53509781
|
|
1. 25.77675489
|
|
1. 59.37859609
|
|
1. 4.75642501
|
|
1. 61.33486766
|
|
1. 41.46528577
|
|
1. 44.1503644
|
|
1. 35.28960491
|
|
1. 34.06214039
|
|
1. NA
|
|
1. 59.76217875
|
|
1. 78.17414653
|
|
1. 52.35903337
|
|
1. NA
|
|
1. 72.0751822
|
|
1. 38.43498274
|
|
1. 60.98964327
|
|
1. 8.630609896
|
|
1. 2.685078634
|
|
1. 35.82662064
|
|
1. 52.5508247
|
|
1. 26.50556195
|
|
|
|
## Calibration results
|
|
For the 35 people who took part in the original prediction making, their results can be seen in the following graphics:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The average accuracy is 55.12%, that is, the average participant got 13.22 out of 24 questions right. If it had been reached, a target credence of 80% would imply an average of 19.2 correct answers. In other words, in this limited domain, when these people say 80%, the thing happens 55% of the time. If they bet, they'd replace ~1:1 bets with 1:4 bets.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|