58 lines
3.8 KiB
Markdown
58 lines
3.8 KiB
Markdown
# 100 predictions
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Para la versión en español, ve a [aquí](nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones)
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## Day 1 15 Sept / 2018
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{SHA is an acronym for "Secure Hashing Algorithm"; a hash algorithm recieves a string, or more generally a document, an returns a number.
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Thus, a hash can identify a document, such that the hash can be revealed without revealing the document.
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If the document is published afterwards, people know it hasn't been changed (because the hash would also change)
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In 2017, a project by CWI Amsterdam and Google produced 2 different legible pdfs which had the same SHA1 hash.
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This makes SHA1 insecure; it is no longer enough to uniquely identify a document.
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The hash family continued with SHA2, and then SHA3. The most secure version of SHA3 is SHA-512.
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Questions
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- What probability, per year, do you assign to SHA-512 being successfully attacked?
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By successfully attacked, we understand that someone finds x, x' such that SHA3-512(x) = SHA3-512(x'), or that given a
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y = SHA3-512(z) someone finds a z' =/= z such that SHA3-512(z')=y.
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- WHat probability, per year, do you assign to SHA3-512 being replaced as a standard?}
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Recommended time: 15 mins.
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## Day 2 17 Sept / 2018
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{Elisabeth II, Queen of England, was born on 1926, whereas King Juan Carlos I of Spain was born on 1938.
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Question:
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- What probability do you assign to ELisabeth the II dying before Juan Carlos the I?
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}
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## Day 2 Discussion
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In our group, probablities ranged from 4% (my own estimate) to 25%. I obtained my 6% figure going to (life tables)[https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables], and searching for life expectancies at 80 and 92 years old. I created a simplified model in which the queen of england was just an English peasant, ditto for the king of Spain.
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With those tables in mind, it's relatively easy to calculate the probability that the queen will still ve alive in X years, and that the king will die in exactly X years. Multiplying both to get the probability of both events happening, and summing over all possible years, I arrive at a probability of 5,5575% for the statement under discussion. I adjust this upwards a little bit to 6%, because the queen seems healthier, the king broke his hip, and I'd guess the English Health system has better top notch doctors. If I really cared about the result, I might consider the rate of death not per year, but per week/month (interpolating those from the values at the beginning and end of each year), and would take into account rising life expectancies.
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## Day 3 24 Sept / 2018
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{The Effective Altruism Group in Spain wanted to give a TedX talk. What probability do you assign to one being given by the end of 2019? Pro tip: Consider the question in the negative: What probability do you assign to one NOT being given by the end of 2019?}
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### Day 3'
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{Atiyah's proof of the Riemann hypothesis will not be accepted as valid 1 year from now.}
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## Day 3 discussion.
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Bets were made for 3', but not for 3, to avoid perverse incentives. The group converged pretty quickly into a <1% probability of 3'.
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## Hashes
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Everything between {} is hashed through SHA3-512 (https://www.browserling.com/tools/sha3-hash), and published on Twitter (@NunoSempere).
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This, of course means that corrections or notes can't be made.
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### Day 1
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0addb6466a2fb3a537fa276e39306f2b57f8d31e66b826f57b62d141ff3de821fca5b9e35de06092c3847bc018b1531ecc3123e09b0f137700c2433b58f8781f
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Notes: SHA-3 is replaced is interpreted as "SHA-4" is accepted as a standard.
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### Day 2
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3bb19d34fbb08347389f9d38cd5660235a5114df3890a052926d36988529b52fc3f72e27b00af88b1390b32591f54093d951abc7cbec94efb42f145d705786e0
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### Day 3
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5c95dc6c256cf0ffe3486b841abc32aad3bbfa471fdf05ae86218ae2f6349d709539b957090315ccad21d7e9e5ee396fe6b0b39340d3e8657a8dd9c4b7afd03d
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### Day 3'
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