143 lines
24 KiB
Markdown
143 lines
24 KiB
Markdown
Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil's predictions for the 2010s
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## *The Singularity is Near*, written in 2005; predictions for the 2010s
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Searched for keywords: within, 20[2x], 20[1x], in the next decade, decade, etc.
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- Musicians typically make most of their money with live performances, but that model will also come under attack early in the next decade, when we will have full-immersion virtual reality. Wrong.
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- will have drugs that will allow us to eat as much as we want without gaining weight... in five to ten years. Wrong.
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- Ten years from now, it's likely we will consider "clean a house" as within the capabilities of machines. Wrong.
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- As for driving cars, robots with no human intervention have already driven nearly across the United States on ordinary roads with other normal traffic. We are not yet ready to turn over all steering wheels to machines, but there are serious proposals to create electronic highways on which cars (with people in them) will drive by themselves. Wrong, but close.
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- In time we also won't need the various organs that produce chemicals, hormones, and enzymes that flow into the blood and other metabolic pathways. We can now synthesize bio-identical versions of many of these substances, and within one to two decades we will be able to routinely create the vast majority of biochemically relevant substances. Wrong.
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- In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve my more conservative estimate of 10^16 cps for functional human-brain emulation by early in the next decade (see the "Supercomputer Power" figure on p. 71). Correct.
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The 2010 Scenario. There predictions are all part of a somewhat narrative section:
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- Computers arriving at the beginning of the next decade will become essentially invisible: woven into our clothing, embedded in our furniture and environment. Correct.
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- They will tap into the worldwide mesh (what the World Wide Web will become once all of its linked devices become communicating Web servers, thereby forming vast supercomputers and memory banks) of high-speed communications and computational resources. Correct.
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- We'll have very high-bandwidth, wireless communication to the Internet at all times. Correct.
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- Displays will be built into our eyeglasses and contact lenses and images projected directly onto our retinas. Wrong.
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- An impressive immersive virtual reality system already demonstrated by the army's Institute for Creative Technologies includes virtual humans that respond appropriately to the user's actions. Wrong
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- Similar tiny devices will project auditory environments. Cell phones are already being introduced in clothing that projects sound to the ears.And there's an MP3 player that vibrates your skull to play music that only you can hear. The army has also pioneered transmitting sound through the skull from a soldier's helmet. Wrong.
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- There are also systems that can project from a distance sound that only a specific person can hear, a technology that was dramatized by the personalized talking street ads in the movie Minority Report. The Hypersonic Sound technology and the Audio Spotlight systems achieve this by modulating the sound on ultrasonic beams, which can be precisely aimed. Sound is generated by the beams interacting with air, which restores sound in the audible range. By focusing multiple sets of beams on a wall or other surface, a new kind of personalized surround sound without speakers is also possible. Wrong.
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- These resources will provide high-resolution, full-immersion visual-auditory virtual reality at any time. We will also have augmented reality with displays overlaying the real world to provide real-time guidance and explanations. For example, your retinal display might remind us, "That's Dr. John Smith, director of the ABC Institute—you last saw him six months ago at the XYZ conference" or, "That's the Time-Life Building—your meeting is on the tenth floor." Wrong.
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- We'll have real-time translation of foreign languages, essentially subtitles on the world, and access to many forms of online information integrated into our daily activities. Correct.
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- Virtual personalities that overlay the real world will help us with information retrieval and our chores and transactions. These virtual assistants won't always wait for questions and directives but will step forward if they see us struggling to find a piece of information. (As we wonder about "That actress ... who played the princess, or was it the queen ... in that movie with the robot," our virtual assistant may whisper in our ear or display in our visual field of view: "Natalie Portman as Queen Amidala in Star Wars, episodes 1, 2, and 3."). Correct.
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Overall track record:
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- Correct: 5
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- Wrong: 10
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## From the Wikipedia page for *The Age of Spiritual Machines*: Predictions for 2019, written in 1999.
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After tabulating the above, I found a goldmine of a Wikipedia page: [Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil
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](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil)
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- The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second). Probably wrong.
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- The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. Unclear.
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- Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). Correct.
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- People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. Wrong x 1, Correct x 1.
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- These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment. Wrong.
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- People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being. Wrong.
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- Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. Wrong.
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- Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes. Correct x2.
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- Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. Correct.
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- Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. Correct.
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- Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. Wrong.
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- Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use. Correct.
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- Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets. Wrong x2.
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- Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere. Correct.
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- Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing. Probably wrong x 2.
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- Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly. Correct x1, Wrong x2.
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- Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete. Wrong.
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- Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely. Wrong x2.
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- Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers. Correct.
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- All students have access to computers. Mostly correct in the developed world.
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- Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge. Wrong.
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- Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities. Wrong x2.
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- Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful. Probably correct.
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- Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used. Wrong x1, Correct x1.
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- People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers. Probably wrong.
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- Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (e.g. Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk). Correct.
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- Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations. Correct x1, Wrong x1.
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- Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist. Correct.
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- Anyone can wirelessly access the internet with wearable devices such as computerized glasses, contacts, and watches. Wrong.
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- Traditional computers and communication devices such as desktop PCs, laptops, and cell phones still exist, but most of their functions can be performed by wearable gadgets. Examples include reading books, listening to music, watching movies, playing games, and teleconferencing. Correct.
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- Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (e.g. tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality. Wrong x2.
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- Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience. Wrong x3.
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- Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse. Probably correct.
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- The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer. Ambiguous.
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- Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable. Wrong.
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- Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents. Wrong x3.
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- Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate. Wrong.
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- Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled. Probably wrong.
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- Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights. Wrong x2.
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- Most decisions made by humans involve consultation with machine intelligence. For example, a doctor may seek the advice of a digital assistant. A lawyer might utilize a virtual researcher. Or a shopper may receive recommendations from a software program that has learned his or her shopping habits. Wrong x2, Correct x1.
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- While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test. Wrong x1, Correct x1.
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- Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing. Wrong.
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- Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface. Correct.
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- Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes. Correct x2.
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- The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries). Wrong.
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- Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts. Wrong.
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- Most flying weapons are bird-sized robots. Some are as small as insects. Wrong.
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- Average life expectancy is over 100. Wrong.
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- Computerized watches, clothing, and jewelry can monitor the wearers health continuously. They can detect many types of diseases and offer recommendations for treatment. Correct x1. Wrong x1
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Overall:
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- Correct: 24
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- Wrong: 45
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## Conclusion
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Kurzweil proves surprisingly prescient, but the specific technologies he's auguring (wearable computers, nanotechnology, virtual reality, etc.) don't always come to pass. Still, an accuracy of ~ 1 in 3 is surprisingly good, in particular if one considers that these predictions were made 20 years in advance (!). This is consistent with the [36% found in 2017](https://www.antropy.co.uk/blog/the-singularity-is-near-how-kurzweils-predictions-are-faring/)
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## Bonus: *The Singularity is Near*; predictions for the 2020s.
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- Human brain capability for $1000 dollars by around 2020. This is repeated several times:
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- If we project these computational performance trends through this next century, we can see in the figure below that supercomputers will match human brain capability by the end of this decade and personal computing will achieve it by around 2020—or possibly sooner, depending on how conservative an estimate of human brain capacity we use. (We'll discuss estimates of human brain computational speed in the next chapter. Correct.
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- For these reasons, it is reasonable to expect human brain capacity, at least in terms of hardware computational capacity, for one thousand dollars by around 2020.
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- Based on the above analyses, it is reasonable to expect the hardware that can emulate human-brain functionality to be available for approximately one thousand dollars by around 2020.
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- Within twenty years, we will have at least a millionfold increase in computational power and vastly improved scanning resolution and bandwidth.- There are good reasons to believe that we are at a turning point, and that it will be possible within the next two decades to formulate a meaningful understanding of brain function
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- For example, nanotechnology-based manufacturing devices in the 2020s will be capable of creating almost any physical product from inexpensive raw materials and information.
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- We will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence with supercomputers by the end of this decade and with personal-computer-size devices by the end of the following decade. We will have effective software models of human intelligence by the mid-2020s.
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- With both the hardware and software needed to fully emulate human intelligence, we can expect computers to pass the Turing test, indicating intelligence indistinguishable from that of biological humans, by the end of the 2020s
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- The cost of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) per square millimeter has also been coming down. The doubling time for bits of DRAM per dollar has been only 1.5 years
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- When Moore's Law reaches the end of its S-curve, now expected before 2020, the exponential growth will continue with three-dimensional molecular computing, which will constitute the sixth paradigm.
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- Once we have full-immersion virtual-reality environments incorporating all of the senses, which will be feasible by the late 2020s, there will be no reason to utilize real offices. Real estate will become virtual.
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- ersonal computers today provide more than 109 cps. According to the projections in the "Exponential Growth of Computing" chart (p. 70), we will achieve 1016cps by 2025
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- By the 2020s nanobot technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be one of its prominent applications.
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- In the 2020s we will use nanobots to begin augmenting our brains with nonbiological intelligence, starting with the "routine" functions of sensory processing and memory, moving on to skill formation, pattern recognition, and logical analysis
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- By the 2020s molecular assembly will provide tools to effectively combat poverty, clean up our environment, overcome disease, extend human longevity, and many other worthwhile pursuits
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- Although the nanotechnology revolution will require new energy resources, it will also introduce major new S-curves in every aspect of energy—production, storage, transmission, and utilization—by the 2020s.
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- I've stated the case in chapter 4 of why we can have confidence that we will have detailed models and simulations of all regions of the human brain by the late 2020s.
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- Today the delay between early and late adoption is about a decade, but in keeping with the doubling of the paradigm-shift rate every decade, this delay will be only about five years in the middle of the second decade and only a couple of years in the mid-2020s.
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- By the late 2020s the value of virtually all products—clothes, food, energy, and of course electronics—will be almost entirely in their information.
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- By the 2020s, full-immersion virtual reality will be a vast playground of compelling environments and experiences. Initially VR will have certain benefits in terms of enabling communications with others in engaging ways over long distances and featuring a great variety of environments from which to choose. Although the environments will not be completely convincing at first, by the late 2020s they will be indistinguishable from real reality and will involve all of the senses, as well as neurological correlations of our emotions. As we enter the 2030s there won't be clear distinctions between human and machine, between real and virtual reality, or between work and play.
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- By the late 2020s we will have completed the reverse engineering of the human brain, which will enable us to create nonbiological systems that match and exceed the complexity and subtlety of humans, including our emotional intelligence.
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- The experience-beaming technology of 2029 will enable the brain of one person to experience only the sensory experiences (and potentially some of the neurological correlates of emotions and other aspects of experience) of another person.
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- As I describe below, the window of malicious opportunity for bioengineered viruses, existential or otherwise, will close in the 2020s when we have fully effective antiviral technologies based on nanobots
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- When we reach the 2020s and have software running in our bodies and brains, government authorities will have a legitimate need on occasion to monitor these software streams.
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- There's no reason for that to change. Providing for a reliable nanotechnology immune system will be one of the great political issues of the 2020s and 2030s.
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- In the 2020s we will routinely have nanobots in our bloodstream keeping us healthy and augmenting our mental capabilities. By the time these work well they will be inexpensive and widely used.
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- In the 2020s we will routinely have nanobots in our bloodstream keeping us healthy and augmenting our mental capabilities. By the time these work well they will be inexpensive and widely used. As I discussed above, reducing the lag between early and late adoption of information technologies will itself accelerate from the current ten-year period to only a couple of years two decades from now. Once nonbiological intelligence gets a foothold in our brains, it will at least double in capability each year, as is the nature of information technology. Thus it will not take long for the nonbiological portion of our intelligence to predominate. This will not be a luxury reserved for the rich, any more than search engines are today. And to the extent that there will be a debate about the desirability of such augmentation, it's easy to predict who will win, since those with enhanced intelligence will be far better debaters.
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- We achieve one human brain capability (10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
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## Bonus: Predictions for the year 2029, from *The Age of Intelligent Machines* (1999)
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- A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
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- The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.
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- Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
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- Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
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- The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
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- Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.
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- Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
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- Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.
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- Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
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- The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
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- The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being."
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- Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.
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- Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.
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- Reverse engineering of the human brain completed.
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- Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge-sharing of machine intelligence.
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- Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed in its rate of growth.
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