3.4 KiB
Whatever happened to forecasting? April 2020
A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up here. The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least five more iterations.
Index
- Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.
- Augur.
- PredictIt & Election Betting Odds.
- Replication Markets.
- Coronavirus Information Markets.
- Foretold. (c.o.i).
- Metaculus.
- Good Judgement Open.
- In the News.
- Long Content.
Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.
Augur: augur.net
Augur is a decentralized prediction market.
Predict It & Election Betting Odds: predictIt.org & electionBettingOdds.com
PredictIt is a prediction platform restricted to US citizens or those who bother using a VPN.
In PredictIt, the world politics section...
Election Betting Odds aggregates PredictIt with other such services for the US presidential elections.
Replication Markets: replicationmarkets.com
Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. Rewards are monetary, but only given out to the top N forecasters, and markets suffer from sometimes being dull.
Coronavirus Information Markets: coronainformationmarkets.com
For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume started at $8000, but may increase. Another similar platform is waves.exchange/prediction, which seems to be just a wallet to which a prediction market has been grafted on.
Unfortunately, I couldn't make a transaction in these markets with ~30 mins; the time needed to be included in an ethereum block is longer and I may have been too stingy with my gas fee.
Foretold: foretold.io (c.o.i)
Foretold is an forecasting platform which has experimentation and exploration of forecasting methods in mind. They bring us:
- A new distribution builder to visualize and create probability distributions.
Metaculus: metaculus.com
Metaculus is a forecasting platform with an active community and lots of interesting questions.
/(Good Judgement?[^]*)|(Superforecast(ing|er))/gi
Good Judgement Inc. is the organization which grew out of Tetlock's research on forecasting, and out of the Good Judgement Project, which won the IARPA ACE forecasting competition, and resulted in the research covered in the Superforecasting book.
Good Judgement Inc. also organizes the Good Judgement Open gjopen.com, a forecasting platform open to all, with a focus on serious geopolitical questions. They structure their questions in challenges.