nunosempere.github.io/index.md

153 lines
15 KiB
Markdown
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters

This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.

## Highlights
1. [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com)
4. [Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)
5. [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
6. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)
7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)
8. [Estimating Value](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/AbrRsXM2PrCrPShuZ) Sequence.
9. [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
10. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)
## Recent
[Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021)
[Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)
[Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)
[Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-february-2021)
[Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)
[Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-january-2021)
[A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)
[2020: Forecasting in Review](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2020-forecasting-in-review)
[Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-december-2020)
[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
[Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es)
## Effective Altruism & Rationality
### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)
[A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)
[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
[An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work)
[Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
[Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)
[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)
[Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b)
[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)
[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making)
[A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty)
[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)
[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models)
[Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and)
[Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals)
[Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)
[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis)
### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere)
[Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
### Forecasting Newsletter
[On Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/)
[On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7)
### Elsewhere
[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweils predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html)
[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)
[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)
[100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es)
[A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html)
[List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html)
[List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/)
[Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html)
[Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/)
[¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)
[From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html)
[Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/narrativomancy.html)
[Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/AE-retreat.html) (es)
[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)
[Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html)
## Programming and Maths | Programación y matemáticas
[Github profile](https://github.com/NunoSempere)
[Labeling](https://github.com/NunoSempere/labeling), an R package which I mantain. It's used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month.
[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally)
[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow)
[Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python)
[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/)
[Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html)
[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html)
[Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es)
[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html)
[Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf)
[Programa de facturación](https://easyfirma.es) (es)
## Humanities | Humanidades.
[Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/remedios-zafra) (es)
[Mentir mola](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/mentir-mola.html ) (es)
[¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht.](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/brecht.html) (es)
[La desmundanalización de la iglesia](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/catholic-church.html) (es)
## [Costumbrismo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costumbrismo)
[Die Macht der Merkel](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/merkel.html) (es)
[Oh alemán, mi alemán](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/aleman) (es)
[Crónica de una gamberrada](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/gamberrada/index.html) (es)
## Philosophy | Filosofía.
[Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/marquard.html) (es)
[La nomenclatura no es conocimiento](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/nomenclatura.html) (es)
[Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/granularidad.html) (es)
[Falacia de la subsunción](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/subsuncion.html) (es)
[El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/aletheia/index.html) (es)
[La paradoja del piano](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/piano.html) (es)
[¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte?](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/arte.html) (es)
[Teorías de la cultura](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/cultura.html) (es)
[El evangelio según San Pedro](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/san-pedro.html) (es)
[El fetichismo del franquismo](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/franquismo.html) (es)
## Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura.
[Análisis de "Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo", de Rubén Darío](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/ruben-dario-yo-persigo-una-forma-que-no-encuentra-mi-estilo.html) (es)
[Sinónimos de "fantástico" que empiecen por f](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/fantastico.html) (es)
[En tanto que de rosa y azucena](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/en-tanto-que-de-rosa-y-azucena.html) (es)
[Englicismos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/englicismos) (es)
[Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/rulfo-garcia.html) (es)
[A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/patada-en-los-cojones.html) (es)
[Teoría de la literatura](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/teoria-de-la-literatura.html) (es)
[Las tildes en español](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://tildes/index.html) (es)
[Términos retóricos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/terminos-retoricos.html) (es)
[Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/desuso.html) (es)
[Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es)
[Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es)
[Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es)
Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/)
## Fiction | Ficción
[Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es)
[El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/carlista.html) (es)
## Written by others
Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/biologia-para-futuros-presidentes-parte.html) (es)
Lucía Trillo [Thinking fast and slow](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/thinking-fast-and-slow.html) (es)
Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2016/10/freedom-regained-de-julian-baggini.html) (es)
## Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre.
[Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/unfairchess.html)
[Webpage for a friend](https://ciruelahaiti.github.io/)
[La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/inditex.html) (es)
[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es)
[The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/The-Mask.html)
## Media mentions
[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)
[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)