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10. [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
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## Recent
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[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
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[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)
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[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)
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[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
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[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
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[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
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[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
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[Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020)
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[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
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## Effective Altruism & Rationality
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### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)
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[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
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[Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)
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[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)
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[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020)
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[](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)
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[Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b)
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[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)
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[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making)
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[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis)
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### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere)
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[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
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[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
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[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
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[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
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[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
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### Forecasting Newsletter
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[Forecasting Newsletter on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020)
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[October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020)
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[September 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/September2020)
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[August 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/August2020)
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[July 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/July2020)
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[June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020)
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[May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020)
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[April 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020) (experimental)
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[March 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/March2020) (proof of concept)
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### Elsewhere
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[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
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[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
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[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html)
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[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)
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[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow)
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[Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python)
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[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/)
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[Letter from O.Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html)
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[Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html)
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[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html)
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[Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es)
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[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html)
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[Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es)
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[Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es)
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[Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es)
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Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/)
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Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/)
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## Fiction | Ficción
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[Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es)
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@ -128,3 +142,7 @@ Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno.
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[La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/inditex.html) (es)
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[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es)
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[The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/The-Mask.html)
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## Media mentions
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[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)
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[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)
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