diff --git a/index.md b/index.md index bd22ec5..9c0de3e 100644 --- a/index.md +++ b/index.md @@ -12,19 +12,20 @@ 10. [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html) ## Recent +[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) [Prizes in the EA Forum and LW.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA) +[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques) [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) [Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using) [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) -[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house) -[Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020) -[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) ## Effective Altruism & Rationality ### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere) +[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) +[Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH) [Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA) -[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) +[](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH) [Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b) [International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability) [A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making) @@ -37,12 +38,25 @@ [EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis) ### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere) +[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) [Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using) [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) [AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house) +### Forecasting Newsletter +[Forecasting Newsletter on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) +[October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020) +[September 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/September2020) +[August 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/August2020) +[July 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/July2020) +[June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020) +[May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020) +[April 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020) (experimental) +[March 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/March2020) (proof of concept) + ### Elsewhere +[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html) [Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html) [Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment) @@ -67,7 +81,7 @@ [Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow) [Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python) [Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/) -[Letter from O.Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html) +[Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html) [AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html) [Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es) [Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html) @@ -111,7 +125,7 @@ [Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es) [Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es) [Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es) -Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/) +Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/) ## Fiction | Ficción [Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es) @@ -128,3 +142,7 @@ Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno. [La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/inditex.html) (es) [Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es) [The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/The-Mask.html) + +## Media mentions +[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html) +[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)