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## Highlights ## Highlights
1. [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) 1. [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) 2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7) 3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com)
4. [Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics) 4. [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
5. [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of) 4. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)
6. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) 5. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)
7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/) 6. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)
8. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics) 7. [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
9. [Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html) 8. [Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics)
## Recent ## Recent
[Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-december-2020)
[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
[Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es) [Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es)
[Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with) [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
[An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work) [An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work)
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## Effective Altruism & Rationality ## Effective Altruism & Rationality
### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere) ### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)
[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
[An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work) [An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work)
[Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of) [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
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[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house) [AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
### Forecasting Newsletter ### Forecasting Newsletter
[Forecasting Newsletter on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7) [On Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/)
[November 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020) [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7)
[October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020)
[September 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/September2020)
[August 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/August2020)
[July 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/July2020)
[June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020)
[May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020)
[April 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020) (experimental)
[March 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/March2020) (proof of concept)
### Elsewhere ### Elsewhere
[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)