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@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ I notice that my 1:5 is closer to 1:2.5 in reality, with n=28 observations. My 1
My Brier score is 0.0755985. The significant digits become relevant later. My Brier score is 0.0755985. The significant digits become relevant later.
## 2. How do I compare to a some simple regression models? ## 2. How do I compare to a some simple regression models?
I create four simple linear regression models and interpret their output as probability. I also consider a really really dumb predictor, for comparison purposes. I created four simple linear regression models and interpret their output as probability. I also consider a really really dumb predictor, for comparison purposes.
- 1. The first one regresses the binary outcome (1 if true, 0 if false) on the variables 3,4,7 and 10 outlined in the set up. That is, I consider the type of question, whether it was homework, normal or part of an exam, my score in the BDC and whether it was the first try or not. - 1. The first one regresses the binary outcome (1 if true, 0 if false) on the variables 3,4,7 and 10 outlined in the set up. That is, I consider the type of question, whether it was homework, normal or part of an exam, my score in the BDC and whether it was the first try or not.
- 2. The second includes all the data outlined in the set up, except my subjective probability. Or, in other words, all the above + {Hunch, Somewhat confident, Confident, Very confident, Incredibly Confident} as factors. - 2. The second includes all the data outlined in the set up, except my subjective probability. Or, in other words, all the above + {Hunch, Somewhat confident, Confident, Very confident, Incredibly Confident} as factors.
- 3. The third only regresses binary outcome on my subjective probability. - 3. The third only regresses binary outcome on my subjective probability.