From 04f85719791d49101b8a5b1883e7042b05e62853 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Nu=C3=B1o=20Sempere?= Date: Mon, 6 May 2019 16:07:44 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Update Self-experimentation-calibration.md --- rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md b/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md index d75a021..0f9c629 100644 --- a/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md +++ b/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md @@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ I notice that my 1:5 is closer to 1:2.5 in reality, with n=28 observations. My 1 My Brier score is 0.0755985. The significant digits become relevant later. ## 2. How do I compare to a some simple regression models? -I create four simple linear regression models and interpret their output as probability. I also consider a really really dumb predictor, for comparison purposes. +I created four simple linear regression models and interpret their output as probability. I also consider a really really dumb predictor, for comparison purposes. - 1. The first one regresses the binary outcome (1 if true, 0 if false) on the variables 3,4,7 and 10 outlined in the set up. That is, I consider the type of question, whether it was homework, normal or part of an exam, my score in the BDC and whether it was the first try or not. - 2. The second includes all the data outlined in the set up, except my subjective probability. Or, in other words, all the above + {Hunch, Somewhat confident, Confident, Very confident, Incredibly Confident} as factors. - 3. The third only regresses binary outcome on my subjective probability.