nunosempere.github.io/index.md

## Best of
[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7) (en)  
[Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics) (en)  
[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) (en)  
[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html) (en)  
[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) (en)  
[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) (en)  
[Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) &  [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)  (en)  
[Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics) (en)  
[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)   (en)  
[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)  (en)  

## Recent.
[October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020)  
[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/September2020)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/August2020) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/July2020) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9YJKugJ68qTFzMNCM/forecasting-newsletter-april-2020) (en)  
[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) (en)  


## Effective Altruism & Rationality Stuff / Altruismo efectivo & Racionalidad.

### [Myself on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere) (en)  
[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) (en)  
[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability) (en)  
[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making) (en)  
[A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty) (en)  
[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) (en)  
[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) (en)  
[Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) (en)  
[Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals)  (en)  
[Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)  (en)  
[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis)  (en)  

### Other thoughts:
[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)  (en)  
[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)  (en)  
[Calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/calibration/) (en)  
[100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es) 
[A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html)  (en)  
[List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html) (en)  
[List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (en)  
[Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html) (en)    
[Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (en)  
[¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
[Calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://calibration/) (en)  
[From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html) (en)  
[Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/narrativomancy.html) (en)  
[Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/AE-retreat.html) (es)  
[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)  (en)
[Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html)


## Fucking around with Programming and Maths  / Mierdas de programación y matemáticas
[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow)  (en)  
[Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python)  
[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/)  (en)  
[Letter from O.Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html) (en)  
[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html) (en)  
[Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es)  
[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html) (en)  
[Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf) (en)  
[Programa de facturación](https://easyfirma.es) (es)  

## Humanities / Humanidades.
[Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/remedios-zafra) (es)  
[Mentir mola](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/mentir-mola.html ) (es)  
[¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht.](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/brecht.html) (es)  
[La desmundanalización de la iglesia](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/catholic-church.html) (es)  

## Costumbrismo  
[Die Macht der Merkel](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/merkel.html) (es)  
[Oh alemán, mi alemán](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/aleman) (es)  
[Crónica de una gamberrada](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/gamberrada/index.html) (es)  

## Philosophy  / Filosofía. 
[Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/marquard.html) (es)  
[La nomenclatura no es conocimiento](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/nomenclatura.html) (es)  
[Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/granularidad.html) (es)  
[Falacia de la subsunción](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/subsuncion.html) (es)  
[El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/aletheia/index.html) (es)  
[La paradoja del piano](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/piano.html) (es)  
[¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte?](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/arte.html) (es)  
[Teorías de la cultura](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/cultura.html) (es)  
[El evangelio según San Pedro](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/san-pedro.html) (es)  
[El fetichismo del franquismo](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/franquismo.html) (es)  

## Fucking around with Language and Literature / Mierdas lingüísticas. 
[Análisis de "Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo", de Rubén Darío](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/ruben-dario-yo-persigo-una-forma-que-no-encuentra-mi-estilo.html) (es)  
[Sinónimos de "fantástico" que empiecen por f](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/fantastico.html) (es)  
[En tanto que de rosa y azucena](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/en-tanto-que-de-rosa-y-azucena.html) (es)  
[Englicismos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/englicismos) (es)  
[Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/rulfo-garcia.html) (es)  
[A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/patada-en-los-cojones.html) (es)  
[Teoría de la literatura](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/teoria-de-la-literatura.html) (es)  
[Las tildes en español](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://tildes/index.html) (es)  
[Términos retóricos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/terminos-retoricos.html) (es)  
[Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/desuso.html) (es)  
[Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es)  
[Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es)  
[Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es)  

## Fiction  / Ficción
[Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es)  
[El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/carlista.html) (es)  

## Colaboradores con el Régimen.
Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
Lucía Trillo  [Thinking fast and slow](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  

## Miscellanea / Cajón de sastre.
[Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/unfairchess.html)  (en)  
[Made a webpage for a friend](https://ciruelahaiti.github.io/)
[The Wonderer vs Can You Feel the Love Tonight](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
[The Lady of Shalott](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (en)  
[Sobre la conquista del fuego, Freud](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
[¿Cuánto vale cada idioma?](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
[Adolfo Suárez desde la tumba](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
[La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/inditex.html) (es)  
[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es)   
[The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/The-Mask.html)