nunosempere.github.io/index.md

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2020-11-10 21:07:15 +00:00
## Highlights
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1. [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
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3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com)
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4. [Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)
5. [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
6. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)
7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)
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8. [Estimating Value](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/AbrRsXM2PrCrPShuZ) Sequence.
9. [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
10. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)
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## Recent
[Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)
[External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki)
[Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
[Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions)
[A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)
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[Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-october-2021)
[An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
2021-10-15 21:01:24 +00:00
[Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)
2021-09-20 08:50:08 +00:00
[A quantification of a miliNazi](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/miliNazis)
2021-09-02 14:45:40 +00:00
[Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers)
[Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/postmortem-the-fall-of-kabul)
[US Military Global Information Dominance Experiments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDvKWdCCNo9moNcMr/us-military-global-information-dominance-experiments)
[Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more)
[Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248)
2021-07-01 21:40:46 +00:00
[LongNowForMd: A tool for adding (a) for archive.org links to markdown files](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd)
[Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations)
[2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do)
[What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4mgBR5fwJ9AZeugZC/what-should-the-norms-around-privacy-and-evaluation-in-the)
2021-04-02 11:22:58 +00:00
[Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)
[Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)
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[Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)
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## Effective Altruism & Rationality
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### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)
[Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)
[External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki)
[Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
[Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions)
[A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)
[An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
[Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)
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[Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers)
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[A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)
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[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
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[An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work)
2020-11-23 17:50:00 +00:00
[Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
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[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
2020-12-03 12:20:56 +00:00
[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
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[Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)
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[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)
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[Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b)
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[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)
[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making)
2021-10-15 21:01:24 +00:00
[A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty)
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[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)
[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models)
2021-09-20 08:50:08 +00:00
[Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other misc.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and)
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[Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals)
[Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)
[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis)
2019-12-07 20:22:03 +00:00
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### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere)
2020-12-09 08:55:44 +00:00
[Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
2020-11-17 13:51:58 +00:00
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
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[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
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### Forecasting Newsletter
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[On Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/)
[On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7)
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### Elsewhere
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[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
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[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweils predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html)
[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)
[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)
2019-10-12 18:21:15 +00:00
[100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es)
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[A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html)
[List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html)
[List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/)
[Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html)
[Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/)
2018-09-18 14:25:35 +00:00
[¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)
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[From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html)
2021-09-20 08:50:08 +00:00
[Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/narrativomancy.html)
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/AE-retreat.html) (es)
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[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)
[Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html)
2018-11-02 23:00:58 +00:00
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## Programming and Maths | Programación y matemáticas
[Github profile](https://github.com/NunoSempere)
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[Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)
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[Labeling](https://github.com/NunoSempere/labeling), an R package which I mantain. It's used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month.
[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally)
2021-09-02 14:45:40 +00:00
[Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html)
[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html)
[Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es)
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[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow)
2019-12-10 17:34:26 +00:00
[Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python)
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[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/)
[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html)
2018-09-18 14:25:35 +00:00
[Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es)
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[Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf)
2019-10-12 18:09:09 +00:00
[Programa de facturación](https://easyfirma.es) (es)
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## Humanities | Humanidades.
2018-09-18 11:10:50 +00:00
[Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/remedios-zafra) (es)
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Mentir mola](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/mentir-mola.html ) (es)
[¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht.](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/brecht.html) (es)
[La desmundanalización de la iglesia](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/catholic-church.html) (es)
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## [Costumbrismo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costumbrismo)
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[Die Macht der Merkel](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/merkel.html) (es)
2018-09-18 11:10:50 +00:00
[Oh alemán, mi alemán](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/aleman) (es)
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Crónica de una gamberrada](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/gamberrada/index.html) (es)
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## Philosophy | Filosofía.
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[Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/marquard.html) (es)
[La nomenclatura no es conocimiento](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/nomenclatura.html) (es)
[Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/granularidad.html) (es)
[Falacia de la subsunción](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/subsuncion.html) (es)
[El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/aletheia/index.html) (es)
[La paradoja del piano](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/piano.html) (es)
[¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte?](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/arte.html) (es)
[Teorías de la cultura](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/cultura.html) (es)
[El evangelio según San Pedro](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/san-pedro.html) (es)
[El fetichismo del franquismo](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/franquismo.html) (es)
2018-07-30 10:11:52 +00:00
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## Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura.
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Análisis de "Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo", de Rubén Darío](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/ruben-dario-yo-persigo-una-forma-que-no-encuentra-mi-estilo.html) (es)
2021-05-01 16:10:43 +00:00
[Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es)
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Sinónimos de "fantástico" que empiecen por f](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/fantastico.html) (es)
[En tanto que de rosa y azucena](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/en-tanto-que-de-rosa-y-azucena.html) (es)
2018-09-18 11:10:50 +00:00
[Englicismos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/englicismos) (es)
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/rulfo-garcia.html) (es)
[A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/patada-en-los-cojones.html) (es)
[Teoría de la literatura](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/teoria-de-la-literatura.html) (es)
[Las tildes en español](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://tildes/index.html) (es)
[Términos retóricos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/terminos-retoricos.html) (es)
[Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/desuso.html) (es)
2018-09-18 11:10:50 +00:00
[Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es)
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es)
[Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es)
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Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/)
2018-08-08 14:23:58 +00:00
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## Fiction | Ficción
2018-09-20 17:57:56 +00:00
[Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es)
[El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/carlista.html) (es)
2018-07-30 10:11:52 +00:00
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## Written by others
Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/biologia-para-futuros-presidentes-parte.html) (es)
Lucía Trillo [Thinking fast and slow](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/thinking-fast-and-slow.html) (es)
Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2016/10/freedom-regained-de-julian-baggini.html) (es)
2018-07-30 09:05:42 +00:00
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## Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre.
2021-09-20 08:50:08 +00:00
[A quantification of a miliNazi](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/miliNazis)
[Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/unfairchess.html)
2020-11-10 21:07:15 +00:00
[Webpage for a friend](https://ciruelahaiti.github.io/)
2021-09-20 08:50:08 +00:00
[La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/inditex.html) (es)
[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/letimotiv.html) (es)
[The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/The-Mask.html)
2020-11-17 13:51:58 +00:00
## Media mentions
[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)
[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)