67 lines
3.4 KiB
Markdown
67 lines
3.4 KiB
Markdown
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Whatever happened to forecasting? April 2020
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============================================
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A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least five more iterations.
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## Index
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- Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.
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- Augur.
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- PredictIt & Election Betting Odds.
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- Replication Markets.
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- Coronavirus Information Markets.
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- Foretold. (c.o.i).
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- Metaculus.
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- Good Judgement Open.
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- In the News.
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- Long Content.
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## Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.
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### Augur: [augur.net](https://www.augur.net/)
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Augur is a decentralized prediction market.
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### Predict It & Election Betting Odds: [predictIt.org](https://www.predictit.org/) & [electionBettingOdds.com](http://electionbettingodds.com/)
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PredictIt is a prediction platform restricted to US citizens or those who bother using a VPN.
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In PredictIt, the [world politics](https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World) section...
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[Election Betting Odds](https://electionbettingodds.com/) aggregates PredictIt with other such services for the US presidential elections.
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### Replication Markets: [replicationmarkets.com](https://www.replicationmarkets.com)
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Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. Rewards are monetary, but only given out to the top N forecasters, and markets suffer from sometimes being dull.
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### Coronavirus Information Markets: [coronainformationmarkets.com](https://coronainformationmarkets.com/)
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For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume started at $8000, but may increase. Another similar platform is [waves.exchange/prediction](https://waves.exchange/prediction), which seems to be just a wallet to which a prediction market has been grafted on.
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Unfortunately, I couldn't make a transaction in these markets with ~30 mins; the time needed to be included in an ethereum block is longer and I may have been too stingy with my gas fee.
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### Foretold: [foretold.io](https://www.foretold.io/) (c.o.i)
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Foretold is an forecasting platform which has experimentation and exploration of forecasting methods in mind. They bring us:
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- A new [distribution builder](https://www.highlyspeculativeestimates.com/dist-builder) to visualize and create probability distributions.
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### Metaculus: [metaculus.com](https://www.metaculus.com/)
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Metaculus is a forecasting platform with an active community and lots of interesting questions.
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### /(Good Judgement?[^]*)|(Superforecast(ing|er))/gi
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Good Judgement Inc. is the organization which grew out of Tetlock's research on forecasting, and out of the Good Judgement Project, which won the [IARPA ACE forecasting competition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation_(ACE)_Program), and resulted in the research covered in the *Superforecasting* book.
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Good Judgement Inc. also organizes the Good Judgement Open [gjopen.com](https://www.gjopen.com/), a forecasting platform open to all, with a focus on serious geopolitical questions. They structure their questions in challenges.
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## In the News
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## Grab bag
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## Long Content
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