Whatever happened to forecasting? April 2020
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A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least five more iterations.

## Index
- Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.  
    - Augur.  
    - PredictIt & Election Betting Odds.  
    - Replication Markets.  
    - Coronavirus Information Markets.  
    - Foretold. (c.o.i).  
    - Metaculus.  
    - Good Judgement Open.  
- In the News.  
- Long Content.  

## Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.



### Augur: [augur.net](https://www.augur.net/)

Augur is a decentralized prediction market. 

### Predict It & Election Betting Odds: [predictIt.org](https://www.predictit.org/) & [electionBettingOdds.com](http://electionbettingodds.com/)

PredictIt is a prediction platform restricted to US citizens or those who bother using a VPN.

In PredictIt, the [world politics](https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World) section...  


[Election Betting Odds](https://electionbettingodds.com/) aggregates PredictIt with other such services for the US presidential elections. 
 
### Replication Markets: [replicationmarkets.com](https://www.replicationmarkets.com)
Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. Rewards are monetary, but only given out to the top N forecasters, and markets suffer from sometimes being dull. 



### Coronavirus Information Markets: [coronainformationmarkets.com](https://coronainformationmarkets.com/)
For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume started at $8000, but may increase. Another similar platform is [waves.exchange/prediction](https://waves.exchange/prediction), which seems to be just a wallet to which a prediction market has been grafted on. 

Unfortunately, I couldn't make a transaction in these markets with ~30 mins; the time needed to be included in an ethereum block is longer and I may have been too stingy with my gas fee.

### Foretold: [foretold.io](https://www.foretold.io/) (c.o.i)

Foretold is an forecasting platform which has experimentation and exploration of forecasting methods in mind. They bring us:

- A new [distribution builder](https://www.highlyspeculativeestimates.com/dist-builder) to visualize and create probability distributions.  

### Metaculus: [metaculus.com](https://www.metaculus.com/)

Metaculus is a forecasting platform with an active community and lots of interesting questions. 

### /(Good Judgement?[^]*)|(Superforecast(ing|er))/gi

Good Judgement Inc. is the organization which grew out of Tetlock's research on forecasting, and out of the Good Judgement Project, which won the [IARPA ACE forecasting competition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation_(ACE)_Program), and resulted in the research covered in the *Superforecasting* book. 

Good Judgement Inc. also organizes the Good Judgement Open [gjopen.com](https://www.gjopen.com/), a forecasting platform open to all, with a focus on serious geopolitical questions. They structure their questions in challenges.

## In the News

## Grab bag

## Long Content