nunosempere.github.io/index.md

## Highlights
1. [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)  
2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)  
3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com)  
4. [Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)  
5. [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)  
6. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)  
7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) &  [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)  
8. [Estimating Value](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/AbrRsXM2PrCrPShuZ) Sequence. 
9. [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)  
10. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)  


## Recent
[Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021)  
[Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)  
[Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-february-2021)  
[Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-january-2021)
[A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)  
[2020: Forecasting in Review](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2020-forecasting-in-review)  
[Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-december-2020)  
[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)  

## Effective Altruism & Rationality

### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)  
[A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)  
[Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)  
[An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work)  
[Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)  
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)  
[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)  
[Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)  
[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)  
[Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b)  
[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)  
[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making)  
[A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty)  
[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)  
[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models)  
[Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and)  
[Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals)  
[Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)  
[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis)  

### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere)  
[Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)  
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)  
[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)  
[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)  
[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)  
[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)  

### Forecasting Newsletter
[On Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/)  
[On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7)  

### Elsewhere
[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)  
[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)  
[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html)  
[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)  
[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)  
[100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es) 
[A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html)  
[List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html)  
[List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/)  
[Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html)  
[Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/)  
[¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)  
[From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html)  
[Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/narrativomancy.html)  
[Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/AE-retreat.html) (es)  
[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)  
[Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html)  

## Programming and Maths  | Programación y matemáticas
[Github profile](https://github.com/NunoSempere)  
[Labeling](https://github.com/NunoSempere/labeling), an R package which I mantain. It's used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month.  
[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally)  
[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow)  
[Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python)  
[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/)  
[Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html)  
[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html)  
[Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es)  
[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html)  
[Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf)  
[Programa de facturación](https://easyfirma.es) (es)  

## Humanities | Humanidades.
[Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/remedios-zafra) (es)  
[Mentir mola](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/mentir-mola.html ) (es)  
[¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht.](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/brecht.html) (es)  
[La desmundanalización de la iglesia](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/catholic-church.html) (es)  

## [Costumbrismo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costumbrismo)
[Die Macht der Merkel](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/merkel.html) (es)  
[Oh alemán, mi alemán](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/aleman) (es)  
[Crónica de una gamberrada](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/gamberrada/index.html) (es)  

## Philosophy  | Filosofía. 
[Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/marquard.html) (es)  
[La nomenclatura no es conocimiento](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/nomenclatura.html) (es)  
[Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/granularidad.html) (es)  
[Falacia de la subsunción](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/subsuncion.html) (es)  
[El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/aletheia/index.html) (es)  
[La paradoja del piano](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/piano.html) (es)  
[¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte?](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/arte.html) (es)  
[Teorías de la cultura](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/cultura.html) (es)  
[El evangelio según San Pedro](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/san-pedro.html) (es)  
[El fetichismo del franquismo](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/franquismo.html) (es)  

## Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura. 
[Análisis de "Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo", de Rubén Darío](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/ruben-dario-yo-persigo-una-forma-que-no-encuentra-mi-estilo.html) (es)  
[Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es)  
[Sinónimos de "fantástico" que empiecen por f](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/fantastico.html) (es)  
[En tanto que de rosa y azucena](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/en-tanto-que-de-rosa-y-azucena.html) (es)  
[Englicismos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/englicismos) (es)  
[Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/rulfo-garcia.html) (es)  
[A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/patada-en-los-cojones.html) (es)  
[Teoría de la literatura](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/teoria-de-la-literatura.html) (es)  
[Las tildes en español](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://tildes/index.html) (es)  
[Términos retóricos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/terminos-retoricos.html) (es)  
[Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/desuso.html) (es)  
[Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es)  
[Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es)  
[Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es)  
Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/)  

## Fiction | Ficción
[Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es)  
[El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/carlista.html) (es)  

## Written by others
Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/biologia-para-futuros-presidentes-parte.html) (es)  
Lucía Trillo  [Thinking fast and slow](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/thinking-fast-and-slow.html) (es)  
Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2016/10/freedom-regained-de-julian-baggini.html) (es)  

## Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre.
[Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/unfairchess.html)  
[Webpage for a friend](https://ciruelahaiti.github.io/)  
[La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/inditex.html) (es)  
[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es)  
[The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/The-Mask.html)  

## Media mentions
[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)  
[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)