nunosempere.com/research/index.md

Most of my research can be found [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere). For forecasting related research, see [forecasting](/forecasting)

## Current research

Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are:

- [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3hH9NRqzGam65mgPG/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions)
- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2N9qEbvQ6RHABcae/a-critical-review-of-open-philanthropy-s-bet-on-criminal)
- [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EPhDMkovGquHtFq3h/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open)
- [A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/25/worldview-diversification/)
- [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations)  
- [2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do)  
- [Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/)
- [Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hrdxf5qdKmCZNWTvs/valuing-research-works-by-eliciting-comparisons-from-ea)
- [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki)  
- [Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/28/granular-AMF/)
- [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions)  
- [A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates/)
- [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)  
- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)   
- [Some estimation work in the horizon](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/20/estimation-in-the-horizon/)
- [Estimation for sanity checks](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/10/estimation-sanity-checks/)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)  
- [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)  
- [Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires/) 
- [Use of "I'd bet" on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/02/metaphorical-bets/)
- [Things you should buy, quantified](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/06/things-you-should-buy-quantified/)


Relatedly, I have an interest in _red teaming_,

- The [NegativeNuno](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/negativenuno) EA Forum account covers negative criticism that I'm uncertain about.
- A past piece on this topic is [Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers)

## Past projects

In the past, I've been much more eclectic, and explored a variety of topics, such as:

_Shapley values_:

- [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) 
- [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) 
- [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)  

_Economic models of social movement growth_:

- [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)
- [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)

_Categorization of new causes_:

- [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
- [A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)
- [International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)  
- I am paying someone to update this list with causes proposed in 2021.

_Technological discontinuities_:

- [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
- [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)  

_AI-related_

- [My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/23/my-highly-personal-skepticism-braindump-on-existential-risk/)
- [A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/10/evolutionary-anchor/)
- [There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/21/there-will-always-be-a-voigt-kampff-test/)
- [A basic argument for AI risk](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/23/ai-risk-rohin-shah/)
- [Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/11/can-gpt-produce-ideas/)
- [Review of Epoch's *Scaling transformative autoregressive models*](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/)
- [Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/09/straightforwardly-eliciting-probabilities-from-gpt-3/)
- [Military Global Information Dominance Experiments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDvKWdCCNo9moNcMr/us-military-global-information-dominance-experiments)  
- [AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)  

_The fate of social movements_:

- [Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)  
- [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment)
- [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)  

_Global health and development_, and as part of that, _survey-making_

- [A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making)  
- [A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty) 
- [EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis) (and a more recent [update](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GWBsDeQTjFM8YXtrv/2021-ea-mental-health-survey-results?commentId=XQSiuNuiti9BLpmrR#comments=)

I also have some minor pieces which I still want to index:

- [A quantification of a miliNazi](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/miliNazis)  
- [Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)  
- [Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)  
- [Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b)