nunosempere.com/forecasting/index.md

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Forecasting

My forecasting group is known as Samotsvety. You can read more about it here.

Newsletter

I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting newsletter. It can be found both on Substack and on the EA Forum. Besides its mothly issues, I've also written:

Research

As part of my research at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, and previously as an independent researcher, I have a few in depth pieces on forecasting:

I also have a few minor pieces:

I also mantain this database of prediction markets.

Bayesianism fundamentals

Funding

I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects.

I have run a few contests:

Squiggle

I've done bunch of work around Squiggle, a language for creating quick probability estimates. You can read about this here.