6.7 KiB
6.7 KiB
In 2022...
- Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
- Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021.
- Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
- Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention
- We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants
- Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
- Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
- Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
- Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers
- Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
- Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
- A quick note on the value of donations
- Open Philanthopy allocation by cause area
- Better scoring rules
- Simple Squiggle
- EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022
- Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
- Infinite Ethics 101: Stochastic and Statewise Dominance as a Backup Decision Theory when Expected Values Fail
- Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
- The Tragedy of Calisto and Melibea
- A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform
- Cancellation insurance
- I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets
- The Maximum Vindictiveness Strategy
- Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
- Some thoughts on Turing.jl
- How much would I have to run to lose 20 kilograms?
- $1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge
- Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
- A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report
- What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?
- Introduction to Fermi estimates
- A comment on Cox's theorem and probabilistic inductivism.
- Simple estimation examples in Squiggle
- Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
- Distribution of salaries in Spain
- An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants
- Use distributions to more parsimoniously estimate impact
- Utilitarianism: An Incomplete Approach
- $5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths
- Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths
- Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
- Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.
- Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
- Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons
- Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires
- Are flimsy evaluations worth it?
- Brief thoughts on my personal research strategy
- Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind the scenes.
- Tracking the money flows in forecasting
- Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
- Some data on the stock of EA™ funding
- List of past fraudsters similar to SBF
- Goodhart's law and aligning politics with human flourishing
- COVID-19 in rural Balochistan, Pakistan: Two interviews from May 2020
- Hacking on rose
- A basic argument for AI risk