26 lines
2.2 KiB
Markdown
26 lines
2.2 KiB
Markdown
Cancellation insurance
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> I like to deliver the predictability you need in these troubled times
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> —[Peter Wildeford](https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1545068907505000453)
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I am up for offering some amount of insurance for being [cancelled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cancel_culture), i.e., losing one's job as a result of inane culture war fights[^1]. I think that this could be in expectation a mutualy beneficial tradeoff in the case where my counterparty is very risk averse[^2], and so is happy to pay for a healthy risk premium.
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The main problem I see with this is that insurance creates an incentive to be more cancellation-seeking. I think this can be mitigated by reducing the payout amount such that getting cancelled is still pretty bad. I think that right now, I'm comfortable offering cancellation insurance to the tune of $10k *on a handshake basis*[^3] for a $100 annual payment implying a 1% probability or a ≤1% risk premium.
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This means that I can as of now only offer a small number of such insurances—because I would like to be able to pay them all if all the clients are cancelled, as might happen, e.g., because of selection effects or flawed estimation on my part.
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Such cancellation insurance would also require a tight definition of cancellation, or otherwise some trustworthy resolution mechanism. A majority vote of three persons mutually trusted would suffice on my part, but scaling would require other mechanisms, like, perhaps, [kleros](https://kleros.io/).
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If you are interested in this, [reach out](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere) and share your social media profiles so that I can try to assess your risk.
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See also: [Will I be cancelled before 2025](https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-i-be-cancelled-by-2025).
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[^1]: Or other such definition.
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[^2]: Or, from my perspective, irrational. The Venn diagram of people who are irrational enough to be very risk averse but rational enough to buy cancellation insurance is probably pretty narrow.
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[^3]: Meaning that I am not willing to escrow this amount, because I think I could get much more than 1% on e.g., prediction markets.
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