81 lines
7.5 KiB
Markdown
81 lines
7.5 KiB
Markdown
Consulting
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==========
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This page presents my core competencies, my consulting rates, my description of my ideal client, two testimonials, and a few further thoughts. I can be reached out to at nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com.
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### Core competencies
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#### Researching:
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Some past research outputs that I am proud of are
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- [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
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- [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
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- [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
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- [Better scoring rules](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring)
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- [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)
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- [A concern about the “evolutionary anchor” of Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FHTyixYNnGaQfEexH/a-concern-about-the-evolutionary-anchor-of-ajeya-cotra-s).
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See [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere?sortedBy=top) for more past projects.
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#### Red-teaming
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Do you want my most disagreeable self to poke holes in your proposal or idea? I'm happy to do this.
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#### Programming
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Do you want me to build a website or tool? This is something I'd be excited to do more of. For a larger project, see [metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/), for smaller projects see [this EA forum frontend](https://forum.nunosempere.com), [shapleyvalue.com](https://shapleyvalue.com/), this [tool to fit a beta distribution to a confidence interval](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/), or [this tool to compute proportional approval voting results for cases with more than one candidate](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ProportionalApprovalVoting.html). You might also want to check out [my Github](https://github.com/NunoSempere/).
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#### Evaluation and estimation
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Do you want me to evaluate a project, estimate its value, and suggest ways you could do better? I am very happy to do this. Some past examples are:
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- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2N9qEbvQ6RHABcae/a-critical-review-of-open-philanthropy-s-bet-on-criminal)
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- [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations)
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- [2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do)
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- [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki).
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- [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EPhDMkovGquHtFq3h/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open).
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For a smaller example, in the past I've really enjoyed doing subjective estimates of the value of different career pathways ([1](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QHBaCjf17C1VF_-su-7xHqz1UCwFrlPyCojiN1xzCi0/edit#gid=0), [2](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qvNGkpt9ztOfIYEPXAXJT62wiPQFG9CKm8yGlSHO1Yo/edit#gid=0)).
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#### Forecasting
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I am happy to host workshops, or advise on tournament or forecasting platform design. If you are looking for specific forecasts, you probably want to hire [Samotsvety](https://samotsvety.org/) instead, which can be reached out at info@samotsvety.org.
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### Rates
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I deeply value getting hired for more hours, because each engagement has some overhead cost. Therefore, I am deeply discounting buying a larger number of hours.
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| # of hours | Cost | Example |
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|------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| 1 hour | ~$200 | Talk to me for an hour about a project you want my input on, organize a forecasting workshop |
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| 10 hours | ~$1.5k | Research that draws on my topics of expertise, where I have already thought about the topic, and just have to write it down. For example, [this Bayesian adjustment to Rethink Priorities](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates/) |
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| 100 hours | ~$10k | An [evaluation of an organization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki), an early version of [metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org), two editions of the [forecasting newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com/) |
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| 1000 hours | reach out | Large research project, an ambitious report on a novel topic, the current iteration of [metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org) |
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### Description of client
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My ideal client would be someone or some organization who is producing value in the world, and which wants me to identify ways they could do even better in an open-ended way. Because this context would be assumed to be highly collaborative, they would have a high tolerance for disagreeableness. A close second would be someone who is making an important decision commissioning me to estimate the value of the different options they are considering.
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My anti-client on the other hand would be someone who has already made up their mind, and who wants me to rubber-stamp their decisions, like a grifty crypto project[^1] asking for help writting up a grant to an EA grantmaker, or someone commissioning an evaluation that they will ignore, or a forecast that doesn't feed into any decisions.
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### Testimonials
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> I reached out to Nuño in mid-2021 because I was impressed by his "Shallow evaluation of longtermist organizations", and wanted him to conduct an evaluation of the EA Wiki, of which I was at the time the editor. I was very pleased with the rigour and thoroughness of the analysis he produced, and would recommend his services as a project evaluator and forecaster unreservedly. Indeed, I can think of very few other people in this area whom I would endorse as enthusiastically as I do Nuño.
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>
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> —Pablo Stafforini
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<br>
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> Nuño has depth of knowledge and a track record to prove it. His work spans AI, nuclear risk and a myriad other topics, which I have consistently found insightful. A generalist of the highest calibre.
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> We hired Nuño to review a complex article about AI and forecasting. He delivered promptly, and we found his work insightful.
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>
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> —Jaime Sevilla
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### Further details
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- I am very amenable to taking on projects that would require more than one person, because I am able to bring in collaborators. I would discuss this with the potential client beforehand.
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- Operationally, payouts may go either to the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) (a 503c charity in the US), or to my own consultancy, Shapley Maximizers ÖU, to be decided.
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[^1]: Note that I don't think all crypto projects are grifty, and I in fact view crypto as a pretty promising area of innovation. It's just that for the last couple years if you wanted to grift, crypto was a good place to do so. And in fact a crypto project that wanted to figure out how to produce more value in the world and capture some fraction of it could be a great client.
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