8.6 KiB
Executable File
8.6 KiB
Executable File
Most of my research can be found on the EA Forum. For forecasting related research, see forecasting
Current research
Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are:
- Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
- A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform
- An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants
- A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification
- Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
- 2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
- Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval
- Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers
- External Evaluation of the EA Wiki
- Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths
- Simple comparison polling to create utility functions
- A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates
- Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
- An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
- Some estimation work in the horizon
- Estimation for sanity checks
- Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation
- Building Blocks of Utility Maximization
- Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires
- Use of "I'd bet" on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
- Things you should buy, quantified
Relatedly, I have an interest in red teaming,
- The NegativeNuno EA Forum account covers negative criticism that I'm uncertain about.
- A past piece on this topic is Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers
Past projects
In the past, I've been much more eclectic, and explored a variety of topics, such as:
Shapley values:
- Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals
- Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory
- A Shapley Value Calculator
Economic models of social movement growth:
- A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building
- Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements
Categorization of new causes:
- Big List of Cause Candidates
- A Funnel for Cause Candidates
- International Supply Chain Accountability
- I am paying someone to update this list with causes proposed in 2021.
Technological discontinuities:
AI-related
- My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence
- A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report
- There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test
- A basic argument for AI risk
- Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others
- Review of Epoch's Scaling transformative autoregressive models
- Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3
- Military Global Information Dominance Experiments
- AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services
The fate of social movements:
- Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples
- Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)
- Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?
Global health and development, and as part of that, survey-making
- A review of two books on survey-making
- A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
- EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis. (and a more recent update
I also have some minor pieces which I still want to index: