25 lines
1.7 KiB
Markdown
25 lines
1.7 KiB
Markdown
I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets
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If you create a market on [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/) on the outcome of an undertaking I will bet on its eventual success or failure. Because project creators or owners tend to be too optimistic about their success, this means that I will most often bet against your success.
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This betting allows you to obtain a rough probability for the success of your project. Prediction markets aren't perfect, but a 5% is markedly different from a 50% or from a 90%.
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<p><img src="https://i.imgur.com/KjRzuiW.png" alt="" class="img-medium-center" /></p>
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Some examples of past markets in this spirit:
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- [Will Petra Kosonen submit her thesis by July 6?](https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker/will-petra-kosonen-submit-her-thesi)
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- [Will QURI receive a grant from the SFF in the first half of this year?](https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-quri-receive-a-grant-from-the)
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- [Will I receive a grant of $50,000 USD before June 1st, 2022?](https://manifold.markets/TimothyRooney/will-i-receive-a-grant-of-50000-usd)
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- [Will I find a new job by the end of August 2022?](https://manifold.markets/dukeGartzea/will-i-find-a-new-job-by-the-end-of)
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To let me know about a new such market you want me to bet on, you can find me on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere) or find my email in the *gossip* section of this website.
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---
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Brave people who have taken me up on this offer:
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- [@BenRCongdon](https://twitter.com/BenRCongdon) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-i-run-a-halfmarathon-in-2022).
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- [@Cosmojg](https://twitter.com/cosmojg/status/1549927067055460352) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/cos/will-i-launch-my-digital-futarchy-b).
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