5.8 KiB
Executable File
5.8 KiB
Executable File
Most of my research can be found on the EA Forum. For forecasting related research, see forecasting
The categorization for this page is a work in progress.
Current research
Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are:
- Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
- External Evaluation of the EA Wiki
- Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation
- Simple comparison polling to create utility functions
- An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
- Building Blocks of Utility Maximization
- Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
- 2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
- What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?
- Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
Relatedly, I have an interest in red teaming,
- The NegativeNuno EA Forum account covers negative criticism that I'm uncertain about.
- A past piece on this topic is Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers
Past projects
In the past, I've been much more eclectic, and explored a variety of topics, such as:
Shapley values:
- Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals
- Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory
- A Shapley Value Calculator
Economic models of social movement growth:
- A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building
- Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements
Categorization of new causes:
- Big List of Cause Candidates
- A Funnel for Cause Candidates
- International Supply Chain Accountability
- I am paying someone to update this list with causes proposed in 2021.
Technological discontinuities:
- A prior for technological discontinuities
- AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services
- Discontinuous trends in technological progress
The fate of social movements:
- Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples
- Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)
- Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?
Global health and development, and as part of that, survey-making
- A review of two books on survey-making
- A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
- EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.
I also have some minor pieces which I still want to index: