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Forecasting
My forecasting group is known as Samotsvety. You can read more about it here.
Newsletter
I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting newsletter. It can be found both on Substack and on the EA Forum. Besides its mothly issues, I've also written:
- Looking back at 2021
- Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul (paywalled)
- 2020: Forecasting in Review
Research
As part of my research at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, and previously as an independent researcher, I have a few in depth pieces on forecasting:
- Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting
- Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation
- Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms
- Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges and part 2.
- Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World
- Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
- Introduction to Fermi estimates
I also have a few minor pieces:
- An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
- Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.
- Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions
- Military Global Information Dominance Experiments
- Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment
- Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle
- A prior for technological discontinuities
- Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s
- Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments
- Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration
I also mantain this database of prediction markets.
Funding
I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects.
I have run a few contests:
- Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
- We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants
- $1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge
- $5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths
Squiggle
I've done bunch of work around Squiggle, a language for creating quick probability estimates. You can read about this here.