Merge pull request #1 from LeopoldTal/master

tweak: accessibilificate plots in "Some data on the stock of EA™ funding"

blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analysis.R

@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ title_text="Open Philanthropy allocation by year and cause area"
 subtitle_text="with my own aggregation of categories"
 palette = "Classic Red-Blue"
 direction = -1
-open_philanthropy_plot <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area, group=amount))+
+open_philanthropy_plot <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area))+
   geom_bar(stat="identity")+
   labs(
     title=title_text,
@@ -133,9 +133,13 @@ coeff <- 10^7*4
 wealth <- c(6, 8, 12, 15, 18, 12, 14, 19, 14)
 df2$wealth <- rep(wealth * coeff, num_areas)
 
-open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area, group=amount))+
+make_fortune_plot <- function(show_fortune_legend = FALSE) {
+  open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area))+
     geom_bar(stat="identity")+
-  geom_point(aes(x=year, y=wealth), size=2, color="darkblue", shape=4)+
+    geom_point(
+      aes(x=year, y=wealth), size=2, color="darkblue", shape=4,
+      show.legend=show_fortune_legend
+    )+
     labs(
       title=title_text,
       subtitle=subtitle_text,
@@ -177,9 +181,18 @@ open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fi
       legend.text=element_text(size=8)
     ) +
     guides(fill=guide_legend(nrow=4,byrow=TRUE))
-# open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune
+  # open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune
 
-height = 6
+  height = 6
-width = 5
+  width = 5
 
-ggsave(plot=open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune, "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png", width=width, height=height, bg = "white")
+  filename = ifelse(
+    show_fortune_legend,
+    "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png",
+    "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune_clean_labels.png"
+  )
+  ggsave(plot=open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune, filename, width=width, height=height, bg = "white")
+}
+
+make_fortune_plot(TRUE)
+make_fortune_plot(FALSE)

blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/index.md

@@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ Some data on the stock of EA™ funding
 
 Open Philanthropy's allocation of funding through time looks as follows:
 
-![](https://i.imgur.com/RwD1pP9.png)
+![Bar graph of OpenPhil allocation by year. Global health leads for most years. Catastrophic risks are usually second since 2017. Overall spend increases over time.](https://i.imgur.com/RwD1pP9.png)
 
 Dustin Moskovitz's wealth looks, per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/dustin-a-moskovitz), like this:
 
-![](https://i.imgur.com/cObIgOQ.png)
+![Line chart of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth over time, with a dip in 2019 and a peak in 2021.](https://i.imgur.com/cObIgOQ.png)
 
 If we plot the two together, we don't see that much of a correlation:
 
-![](https://i.imgur.com/NhhiLqd.png)
+![Combination of the previous two charts. Moskovitz's fortune does not match changes in total spend or category composition.](https://i.imgur.com/NhhiLqd.png)
 
 Holden Karnofsky, head of Open Philanthropy, [writes](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mCCutDxCavtnhxhBR/some-comments-on-recent-ftx-related-events) that the Blomberg estimates might not be all that accurate:
 
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ In mid 2022, Forbes put Sam Bankman-Fried's wealth at [$24B](https://www.forbes.
 
 The analysis becomes a bit more interesting if we look only at longtermism and GCRs:
 
-![](https://i.imgur.com/OZwHMtV.png)
+![Bar graph of OpenPhil allocation to catastrophic risks by year. AI leads most years, followed by biosecurity.](https://i.imgur.com/OZwHMtV.png)
 
 In contrast, per [Forbes](https://web.archive.org/web/20221116022228/https://fortune.com/2022/11/14/balkman-fried-ftx-collapse-threatens-effective-altruism-billions-charity-philanthropy/), the FTX Foundation had given out $160M by September 2022. My sense is that most (say, maybe 50% to 80%) of those grants went to "longtermist" cause areas, broadly defined. In addition, SBF and other FTX employees led a $580M funding round for [Anthropic](https://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/2022/05/05/314319/ftx-ceo-leads-580m-series-b-round-anthropic)