diff --git a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analysis.R b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analysis.R index 16e9909..351d93d 100644 --- a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analysis.R +++ b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analysis.R @@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ title_text="Open Philanthropy allocation by year and cause area" subtitle_text="with my own aggregation of categories" palette = "Classic Red-Blue" direction = -1 -open_philanthropy_plot <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area, group=amount))+ +open_philanthropy_plot <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area))+ geom_bar(stat="identity")+ labs( title=title_text, @@ -133,53 +133,66 @@ coeff <- 10^7*4 wealth <- c(6, 8, 12, 15, 18, 12, 14, 19, 14) df2$wealth <- rep(wealth * coeff, num_areas) -open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area, group=amount))+ - geom_bar(stat="identity")+ - geom_point(aes(x=year, y=wealth), size=2, color="darkblue", shape=4)+ - labs( - title=title_text, - subtitle=subtitle_text, - x=element_blank(), - y=element_blank() - ) + - # scale_fill_wsj() + - # scale_fill_tableau(dir =1) + - # scale_fill_tableau(palette, dir=direction) + - # scale_fill_viridis(discrete = TRUE) + - # scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set2") + - - scale_fill_d3( "category20", alpha=0.8) + - # scale_fill_uchicago("dark") + - # scale_fill_startrek() + - scale_y_continuous( - labels = scales::dollar_format(scale = 0.000001, suffix = "M"), - name="OpenPhil donations", - breaks = c(0:5)*10^8, - sec.axis = sec_axis( - ~.*1, - name="Dustin Moskovitz's fortune\n(est. Bloomberg)", - breaks = seq(0,20,by=5)*coeff, - labels = c("$0B", "$5B","$10B","$15B", "$20B") - ), - limits=c(0,8*10^8) +make_fortune_plot <- function(show_fortune_legend = FALSE) { + open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area))+ + geom_bar(stat="identity")+ + geom_point( + aes(x=year, y=wealth), size=2, color="darkblue", shape=4, + show.legend=show_fortune_legend )+ - scale_x_continuous(breaks = years)+ - theme_tufte() + - theme( - legend.title = element_blank(), - plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5), - plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5), - legend.position="bottom", - legend.box="vertical", - axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1), - axis.title.y = element_text(vjust=3, hjust=0.25, size=10), - axis.title.y.right = element_text(vjust=3, hjust=0.5, size=10), - legend.text=element_text(size=8) - ) + - guides(fill=guide_legend(nrow=4,byrow=TRUE)) -# open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune + labs( + title=title_text, + subtitle=subtitle_text, + x=element_blank(), + y=element_blank() + ) + + # scale_fill_wsj() + + # scale_fill_tableau(dir =1) + + # scale_fill_tableau(palette, dir=direction) + + # scale_fill_viridis(discrete = TRUE) + + # scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set2") + -height = 6 -width = 5 + scale_fill_d3( "category20", alpha=0.8) + + # scale_fill_uchicago("dark") + + # scale_fill_startrek() + + scale_y_continuous( + labels = scales::dollar_format(scale = 0.000001, suffix = "M"), + name="OpenPhil donations", + breaks = c(0:5)*10^8, + sec.axis = sec_axis( + ~.*1, + name="Dustin Moskovitz's fortune\n(est. Bloomberg)", + breaks = seq(0,20,by=5)*coeff, + labels = c("$0B", "$5B","$10B","$15B", "$20B") + ), + limits=c(0,8*10^8) + )+ + scale_x_continuous(breaks = years)+ + theme_tufte() + + theme( + legend.title = element_blank(), + plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5), + plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5), + legend.position="bottom", + legend.box="vertical", + axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1), + axis.title.y = element_text(vjust=3, hjust=0.25, size=10), + axis.title.y.right = element_text(vjust=3, hjust=0.5, size=10), + legend.text=element_text(size=8) + ) + + guides(fill=guide_legend(nrow=4,byrow=TRUE)) + # open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune -ggsave(plot=open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune, "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png", width=width, height=height, bg = "white") + height = 6 + width = 5 + + filename = ifelse( + show_fortune_legend, + "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png", + "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune_clean_labels.png" + ) + ggsave(plot=open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune, filename, width=width, height=height, bg = "white") +} + +make_fortune_plot(TRUE) +make_fortune_plot(FALSE) diff --git a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_grants_stacked.png b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_grants_stacked.png index 5494574..68ca67f 100644 Binary files a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_grants_stacked.png and b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_grants_stacked.png differ diff --git a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png index e27c7ab..ca64dc9 100644 Binary files a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png and b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png differ diff --git a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune_clean_labels.png b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune_clean_labels.png index 5634eeb..4858066 100644 Binary files a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune_clean_labels.png and b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune_clean_labels.png differ diff --git a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/index.md b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/index.md index 55e672e..6bbc544 100644 --- a/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/index.md +++ b/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/index.md @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ Some data on the stock of EA™ funding Open Philanthropy's allocation of funding through time looks as follows: -![](https://i.imgur.com/RwD1pP9.png) +![Bar graph of OpenPhil allocation by year. Global health leads for most years. Catastrophic risks are usually second since 2017. Overall spend increases over time.](https://i.imgur.com/RwD1pP9.png) Dustin Moskovitz's wealth looks, per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/dustin-a-moskovitz), like this: -![](https://i.imgur.com/cObIgOQ.png) +![Line chart of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth over time, with a dip in 2019 and a peak in 2021.](https://i.imgur.com/cObIgOQ.png) If we plot the two together, we don't see that much of a correlation: -![](https://i.imgur.com/NhhiLqd.png) +![Combination of the previous two charts. Moskovitz's fortune does not match changes in total spend or category composition.](https://i.imgur.com/NhhiLqd.png) Holden Karnofsky, head of Open Philanthropy, [writes](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mCCutDxCavtnhxhBR/some-comments-on-recent-ftx-related-events) that the Blomberg estimates might not be all that accurate: @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ In mid 2022, Forbes put Sam Bankman-Fried's wealth at [$24B](https://www.forbes. The analysis becomes a bit more interesting if we look only at longtermism and GCRs: -![](https://i.imgur.com/OZwHMtV.png) +![Bar graph of OpenPhil allocation to catastrophic risks by year. AI leads most years, followed by biosecurity.](https://i.imgur.com/OZwHMtV.png) In contrast, per [Forbes](https://web.archive.org/web/20221116022228/https://fortune.com/2022/11/14/balkman-fried-ftx-collapse-threatens-effective-altruism-billions-charity-philanthropy/), the FTX Foundation had given out $160M by September 2022. My sense is that most (say, maybe 50% to 80%) of those grants went to "longtermist" cause areas, broadly defined. In addition, SBF and other FTX employees led a $580M funding round for [Anthropic](https://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/2022/05/05/314319/ftx-ceo-leads-580m-series-b-round-anthropic)