feat: add progress
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.gitignore
vendored
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.gitignore
vendored
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.secret/
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45
.secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle
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.secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle
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// Helpers
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ss(arr) = SampleSet.fromList(arr)
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// Nuclear ukraine
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rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine = ss([0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07])// <- fill-in
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// Note that the period of time is left unspecified
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// Nuclear NATO
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escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked = ss([0.15, 0.09, 0.0013, 10^(-5), 0.01, 0.3, 0.05])// <- fill-in
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escalationToNATOUnconditional = rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine *
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escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked
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// Nuclear NATO to nuclear London/Washington
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bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine = ss([0.4, 0.15, 0.9985, 0.05, 0.02, 0.002, 0.5])// <- fill-in
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bigUKUSCityUnconditional = escalationToNATOUnconditional *
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bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine
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// Impact in lost hours
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remainlingLifeExpectancyInYears = 40 to 60 // <- change
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daysInYear= 365
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productiveHoursInDay = 6 to 18 // <- change
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ableToEscapeBefore = 0.5// <- fill-in
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proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie = 0.7
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expectedLostHours = bigUKUSCityUnconditional *
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(1 - ableToEscapeBefore) *
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proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie *
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remainlingLifeExpectancyInYears *
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daysInYear *
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productiveHoursInDay
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// Probably good to also estimate idiosyncratic factors such as
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// - Increased or decreased productivity in a city
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// - Increased or decreased impact in a city
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// - Value assigned to surviving in a world after a nuclear winter
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// - ...
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// Display
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{
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rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine: rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine,
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escalationToNATOUnconditional: escalationToNATOUnconditional,
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bigUKUSCityUnconditional: bigUKUSCityUnconditional,
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expectedLostHours: expectedLostHours
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}
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@ -23,7 +23,7 @@
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% cat $h
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%($"extraHeaders%)
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<script data-isso="//comments.nunosempere.com/" src="//comments.nunosempere.com/js/embed.min.js"></script>
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</head>
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<body>
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11
gossip/.comments/index.md
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gossip/.comments/index.md
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Example post with comments
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==========================
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Bla bla
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---
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<section id="isso-thread">
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<noscript>Javascript needs to be activated to view comments.</noscript>
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</section>
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15
gossip/.subscribe/index.html
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15
gossip/.subscribe/index.html
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<form method="post" action="https://listmonk.nunosempere.com/subscription/form" class="listmonk-form">
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<div>
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<h3>Subscribe</h3>
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<input type="hidden" name="nonce" />
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<p><input type="email" name="email" required placeholder="E-mail" /></p>
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<p><input type="text" name="name" placeholder="Name (optional)" /></p>
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<p>
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<input id="82ff8" type="checkbox" name="l" checked value="82ff889c-f9d9-4a45-bf9a-7e2696813021" />
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<label for="82ff8">nunosempere.com</label>
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</p>
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<p><input type="submit" value="Subscribe" /></p>
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</div>
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</form>
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BIN
sitemap.gz
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sitemap.gz
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30
sitemap.txt
30
sitemap.txt
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@ -201,6 +201,36 @@ https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/31/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/31/on-cox-s-theorem-and-probabilistic-induction/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/02/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/02/simple-estimation-examples-in-squiggle/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/10/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/10/forecasting-newsletter-august-2022/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/11/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/11/salary-ranges-spain/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/12/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/12/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/15/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/15/use-distributions-to-more-parsimoniously-estimate-impact/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/19/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/19/utilitarianism-an-incomplete-approach/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/23/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/28/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/28/granular-AMF/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/03/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/10/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/10/five-slightly-more-hardcore-squiggle-models/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/12/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/17/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/17/the-commons/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/27/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/27/are-flimsy-evaluations-worth-it/
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https://nunosempere.com/forecasting/
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https://nunosempere.com/gossip/
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https://nunosempere.com/misc/
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