From 61ff450abb8fa30fa1c942b16e370ad60e1cbab9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nuno Sempere Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2022 21:23:26 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] feat: add progress --- .gitignore | 1 + .secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle | 45 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ _werc/lib/headers.tpl | 2 +- gossip/.comments/index.md | 11 ++++++++ gossip/.subscribe/index.html | 15 +++++++++++ sitemap.gz | Bin 2370 -> 2764 bytes sitemap.txt | 30 +++++++++++++++++++++ 7 files changed, 103 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 .gitignore create mode 100644 .secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle create mode 100644 gossip/.comments/index.md create mode 100644 gossip/.subscribe/index.html diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7818824 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +.secret/ diff --git a/.secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle b/.secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle new file mode 100644 index 0000000..edaffb1 --- /dev/null +++ b/.secret/nuclear-2022-10.squiggle @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +// Helpers +ss(arr) = SampleSet.fromList(arr) + +// Nuclear ukraine +rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine = ss([0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07])// <- fill-in +// Note that the period of time is left unspecified + +// Nuclear NATO +escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked = ss([0.15, 0.09, 0.0013, 10^(-5), 0.01, 0.3, 0.05])// <- fill-in +escalationToNATOUnconditional = rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine * + escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked + +// Nuclear NATO to nuclear London/Washington +bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine = ss([0.4, 0.15, 0.9985, 0.05, 0.02, 0.002, 0.5])// <- fill-in +bigUKUSCityUnconditional = escalationToNATOUnconditional * + bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine + +// Impact in lost hours +remainlingLifeExpectancyInYears = 40 to 60 // <- change +daysInYear= 365 +productiveHoursInDay = 6 to 18 // <- change +ableToEscapeBefore = 0.5// <- fill-in +proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie = 0.7 +expectedLostHours = bigUKUSCityUnconditional * + (1 - ableToEscapeBefore) * + proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie * + remainlingLifeExpectancyInYears * + daysInYear * + productiveHoursInDay + +// Probably good to also estimate idiosyncratic factors such as +// - Increased or decreased productivity in a city +// - Increased or decreased impact in a city +// - Value assigned to surviving in a world after a nuclear winter +// - ... + + +// Display +{ + rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine: rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine, + escalationToNATOUnconditional: escalationToNATOUnconditional, + bigUKUSCityUnconditional: bigUKUSCityUnconditional, + expectedLostHours: expectedLostHours + +} diff --git a/_werc/lib/headers.tpl b/_werc/lib/headers.tpl index 635f85e..6bd78cb 100755 --- a/_werc/lib/headers.tpl +++ b/_werc/lib/headers.tpl @@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ % cat $h %($"extraHeaders%) - + diff --git a/gossip/.comments/index.md b/gossip/.comments/index.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..94c8d8a --- /dev/null +++ b/gossip/.comments/index.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +Example post with comments +========================== + +Bla bla + + +--- + +
+ +
diff --git a/gossip/.subscribe/index.html b/gossip/.subscribe/index.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97a760b --- /dev/null +++ b/gossip/.subscribe/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +
+
+

Subscribe

+ +

+

+ +

+ + +

+ +

+
+
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