46 lines
1.6 KiB
Plaintext
46 lines
1.6 KiB
Plaintext
|
// Helpers
|
||
|
|
ss(arr) = SampleSet.fromList(arr)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
// Nuclear ukraine
|
||
|
|
rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine = ss([0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07])// <- fill-in
|
||
|
|
// Note that the period of time is left unspecified
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
// Nuclear NATO
|
||
|
|
escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked = ss([0.15, 0.09, 0.0013, 10^(-5), 0.01, 0.3, 0.05])// <- fill-in
|
||
|
|
escalationToNATOUnconditional = rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine *
|
||
|
|
escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
// Nuclear NATO to nuclear London/Washington
|
||
|
|
bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine = ss([0.4, 0.15, 0.9985, 0.05, 0.02, 0.002, 0.5])// <- fill-in
|
||
|
|
bigUKUSCityUnconditional = escalationToNATOUnconditional *
|
||
|
|
bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
// Impact in lost hours
|
||
|
|
remainlingLifeExpectancyInYears = 40 to 60 // <- change
|
||
|
|
daysInYear= 365
|
||
|
|
productiveHoursInDay = 6 to 18 // <- change
|
||
|
|
ableToEscapeBefore = 0.5// <- fill-in
|
||
|
|
proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie = 0.7
|
||
|
|
expectedLostHours = bigUKUSCityUnconditional *
|
||
|
|
(1 - ableToEscapeBefore) *
|
||
|
|
proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie *
|
||
|
|
remainlingLifeExpectancyInYears *
|
||
|
|
daysInYear *
|
||
|
|
productiveHoursInDay
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
// Probably good to also estimate idiosyncratic factors such as
|
||
|
|
// - Increased or decreased productivity in a city
|
||
|
|
// - Increased or decreased impact in a city
|
||
|
|
// - Value assigned to surviving in a world after a nuclear winter
|
||
|
|
// - ...
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
// Display
|
||
|
|
{
|
||
|
|
rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine: rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine,
|
||
|
|
escalationToNATOUnconditional: escalationToNATOUnconditional,
|
||
|
|
bigUKUSCityUnconditional: bigUKUSCityUnconditional,
|
||
|
|
expectedLostHours: expectedLostHours
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
}
|