manifold/common/payouts.ts

113 lines
2.7 KiB
TypeScript

import * as _ from 'lodash'
import { Bet } from './bet'
import { deductFees, getProbability } from './calculate'
import { Contract, outcome } from './contract'
import { CREATOR_FEE } from './fees'
export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
const { pool } = contract
const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO
console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
return bets.map((bet) => ({
userId: bet.userId,
payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * poolTotal,
}))
}
export const getStandardPayouts = (
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
contract: Contract,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
userId: bet.userId,
payout: deductFees(bet.amount, (bet.shares / totalShares) * pool),
}))
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * pool
console.log(
'resolved',
outcome,
'pool: M$',
pool,
'creator fee: M$',
creatorPayout
)
return winnerPayouts.concat([
{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
]) // add creator fee
}
export const getMktPayouts = (
contract: Contract,
bets: Bet[],
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
const p =
resolutionProbability === undefined
? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
: resolutionProbability
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', pool)
const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
const weightedShareTotal =
p * _.sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares) +
(1 - p) * _.sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares)
const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
userId: bet.userId,
payout: deductFees(
bet.amount,
((p * bet.shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
),
}))
const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
userId: bet.userId,
payout: deductFees(
bet.amount,
(((1 - p) * bet.shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
),
}))
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * pool
return [
...yesPayouts,
...noPayouts,
{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
]
}
export const getPayouts = (
outcome: outcome,
contract: Contract,
bets: Bet[],
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
switch (outcome) {
case 'YES':
case 'NO':
return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
case 'MKT':
return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability)
case 'CANCEL':
return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
}
}