manifold/web/components/numeric-bet-panel.tsx
James Grugett 76f27d1a93
Numeric range markets!! (#146)
* Numeric contract type

* Create market numeric type

* Add numeric graph (coded without testing)

* Outline of numeric bet panel

* Update bet panel logic

* create numeric contracts

* remove batching for antes for numeric markets

* Remove focus

* numeric market range [1, 100]

* Zoom graph

* Hide bet panels

* getNumericBets

* Add numeric resolution panel

* Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc

* Switch bucket count to 100

* Parallelize ante creation

* placeBet for numeric markets

* halve std of numeric bets

* Update resolveMarket with numeric type

* Set min and max for contract

* lower std for numeric bets

* calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order

* Use min and max to map the input

* Fix probability calc

* normpdf variance mislabeled

* range input

* merge

* change numeric graph color

* fix getNewContract params

* bet panel labels

* validation

* number input

* fix bucketing

* bucket input, numeric resolution panel

* outcome label

* merge

* numeric bet panel on mobile

* Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable

* Default to 'all' feed category when loading page.

* fix numeric resolution panel

* fix numeric bet panel calculations

* display numeric resolution

* don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets

* numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object

* restore your bets for numeric markets

* numeric pnl calculations

* remove hasUserHitManaLimit

* contrain contract type

* handle undefined allOutcomeShares

* numeric ante bet amount

* use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts

* change numeric graph/outcome color

* numeric constants

* hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet

* remove comment

* fix ante display in bet list

* halve bucket count

* cast to NumericContract

* fix merge imports

* OUTCOME_TYPES

* typo

* lower bucket count to 200

* store raw numeric value with bet

* store raw numeric resolution value

* number input max length

* create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market

* numeric resolution formatting

* expected value for numeric markets

* expected value for numeric markets

* rearrange lines for readability

* move normalpdf to util/math

* show bets tab

* check if outcomeMode is undefined

* remove extraneous auto-merge cruft

* hide comment status for numeric markets

* import

Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 12:42:03 -05:00

208 lines
5.7 KiB
TypeScript

import clsx from 'clsx'
import { getNumericBetsInfo } from 'common/new-bet'
import { useState } from 'react'
import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
import {
calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet,
getOutcomeProbability,
} from '../../common/calculate'
import { NumericContract } from '../../common/contract'
import { formatPercent, formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
import { placeBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
import { firebaseLogin, User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
import { BuyAmountInput } from './amount-input'
import { BucketInput } from './bucket-input'
import { Col } from './layout/col'
import { Row } from './layout/row'
import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
export function NumericBetPanel(props: {
contract: NumericContract
className?: string
}) {
const { contract, className } = props
const user = useUser()
return (
<Col className={clsx('rounded-md bg-white px-8 py-6', className)}>
<div className="mb-6 text-2xl">Place your bet</div>
<NumericBuyPanel contract={contract} user={user} />
{user === null && (
<button
className="btn flex-1 whitespace-nowrap border-none bg-gradient-to-r from-teal-500 to-green-500 px-10 text-lg font-medium normal-case hover:from-teal-600 hover:to-green-600"
onClick={firebaseLogin}
>
Sign up to trade!
</button>
)}
</Col>
)
}
function NumericBuyPanel(props: {
contract: NumericContract
user: User | null | undefined
onBuySuccess?: () => void
}) {
const { contract, user, onBuySuccess } = props
const [bucketChoice, setBucketChoice] = useState<string | undefined>(
undefined
)
const [value, setValue] = useState<number | undefined>(undefined)
const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState<number | undefined>(undefined)
const [valueError, setValueError] = useState<string | undefined>()
const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>()
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
const [wasSubmitted, setWasSubmitted] = useState(false)
function onBetChange(newAmount: number | undefined) {
setWasSubmitted(false)
setBetAmount(newAmount)
}
async function submitBet() {
if (
!user ||
!betAmount ||
bucketChoice === undefined ||
value === undefined
)
return
setError(undefined)
setIsSubmitting(true)
const result = await placeBet({
amount: betAmount,
outcome: bucketChoice,
value,
contractId: contract.id,
}).then((r) => r.data as any)
console.log('placed bet. Result:', result)
if (result?.status === 'success') {
setIsSubmitting(false)
setWasSubmitted(true)
setBetAmount(undefined)
if (onBuySuccess) onBuySuccess()
} else {
setError(result?.message || 'Error placing bet')
setIsSubmitting(false)
}
}
const betDisabled = isSubmitting || !betAmount || !bucketChoice || error
const { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets } = getNumericBetsInfo(
{ id: 'dummy', balance: 0 } as User, // a little hackish
value ?? 0,
bucketChoice ?? 'NaN',
betAmount ?? 0,
contract,
'dummy id'
)
const { probAfter: outcomeProb, shares } = newBet
const initialProb = bucketChoice
? getOutcomeProbability(contract, bucketChoice)
: 0
const currentPayout =
betAmount && bucketChoice
? calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(
{
...contract,
pool: newPool,
totalShares: newTotalShares,
totalBets: newTotalBets,
},
{
outcome: bucketChoice,
amount: betAmount,
shares,
} as Bet
)
: 0
const currentReturn =
betAmount && bucketChoice ? (currentPayout - betAmount) / betAmount : 0
const currentReturnPercent = formatPercent(currentReturn)
return (
<>
<div className="my-3 text-left text-sm text-gray-500">
Predicted value
</div>
<BucketInput
contract={contract}
isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
onBucketChange={(v, b) => (setValue(v), setBucketChoice(b))}
/>
<div className="my-3 text-left text-sm text-gray-500">Bet amount</div>
<BuyAmountInput
inputClassName="w-full max-w-none"
amount={betAmount}
onChange={onBetChange}
error={error}
setError={setError}
disabled={isSubmitting}
/>
<Col className="mt-3 w-full gap-3">
<Row className="items-center justify-between text-sm">
<div className="text-gray-500">Probability</div>
<Row>
<div>{formatPercent(initialProb)}</div>
<div className="mx-2"></div>
<div>{formatPercent(outcomeProb)}</div>
</Row>
</Row>
<Row className="items-center justify-between gap-2 text-sm">
<Row className="flex-nowrap items-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-500">
<div>
Estimated
<br /> payout if correct
</div>
</Row>
<Row className="flex-wrap items-end justify-end gap-2">
<span className="whitespace-nowrap">
{formatMoney(currentPayout)}
</span>
<span>(+{currentReturnPercent})</span>
</Row>
</Row>
</Col>
<Spacer h={8} />
{user && (
<button
className={clsx(
'btn flex-1',
betDisabled ? 'btn-disabled' : 'btn-primary',
isSubmitting ? 'loading' : ''
)}
onClick={betDisabled ? undefined : submitBet}
>
{isSubmitting ? 'Submitting...' : 'Submit bet'}
</button>
)}
{wasSubmitted && <div className="mt-4">Bet submitted!</div>}
</>
)
}