ed5f69db7a
* Split BuyAmountInput out of AmountInput * Buy and sell tabs. Compute some sell info * In progress * BuyPanel & SellPanel with banner above that shows current shares and toggle button * Remove "Remaining balance" * Bring back 'Place a trade'. Tweaks * Sell shares cloud function. * Sell all shares by default. Switch back to buy if sell all your shares. * Cache your shares in local storage so sell banner doesn't flicker. * Compute sale value of shares with binary search to keep k constant. * Update bets table to show BUY or SELL * Fixes from Stephen's review * Don't allow selling more than max shares in cloud function * Use modal for sell shares on desktop. * Handle floating point precision in max shares you can sell.
636 lines
18 KiB
TypeScript
636 lines
18 KiB
TypeScript
import Link from 'next/link'
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import _ from 'lodash'
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import dayjs from 'dayjs'
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import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
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import clsx from 'clsx'
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import { useUserBets } from '../hooks/use-user-bets'
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import { Bet } from '../lib/firebase/bets'
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import { User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
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import {
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formatMoney,
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formatPercent,
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formatWithCommas,
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} from '../../common/util/format'
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import { Col } from './layout/col'
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import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
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import {
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Contract,
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getContractFromId,
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contractPath,
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getBinaryProbPercent,
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} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
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import { Row } from './layout/row'
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import { UserLink } from './user-page'
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import { sellBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
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import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
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import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel } from './outcome-label'
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import { filterDefined } from '../../common/util/array'
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import { LoadingIndicator } from './loading-indicator'
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import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
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import {
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calculatePayout,
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calculateSaleAmount,
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getOutcomeProbability,
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getProbability,
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getProbabilityAfterSale,
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resolvedPayout,
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} from '../../common/calculate'
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type BetSort = 'newest' | 'profit' | 'resolutionTime' | 'value' | 'closeTime'
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type BetFilter = 'open' | 'closed' | 'resolved' | 'all'
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export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
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const { user } = props
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const bets = useUserBets(user.id)
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const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | undefined>()
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const [sort, setSort] = useState<BetSort>('value')
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const [filter, setFilter] = useState<BetFilter>('open')
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useEffect(() => {
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if (bets) {
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const contractIds = _.uniq(bets.map((bet) => bet.contractId))
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let disposed = false
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Promise.all(contractIds.map((id) => getContractFromId(id))).then(
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(contracts) => {
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if (!disposed) setContracts(filterDefined(contracts))
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}
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)
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return () => {
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disposed = true
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}
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}
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}, [bets])
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if (!bets || !contracts) {
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return <LoadingIndicator />
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}
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if (bets.length === 0) return <NoBets />
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// Decending creation time.
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bets.sort((bet1, bet2) => bet2.createdTime - bet1.createdTime)
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const contractBets = _.groupBy(bets, 'contractId')
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const contractsById = _.fromPairs(contracts.map((c) => [c.id, c]))
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const contractsCurrentValue = _.mapValues(
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contractBets,
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(bets, contractId) => {
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return _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => {
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if (bet.isSold || bet.sale) return 0
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const contract = contractsById[contractId]
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const payout = contract ? calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'MKT') : 0
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return payout - (bet.loanAmount ?? 0)
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})
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}
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)
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const contractsInvestment = _.mapValues(contractBets, (bets) => {
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return _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => {
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if (bet.isSold || bet.sale) return 0
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return bet.amount - (bet.loanAmount ?? 0)
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})
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})
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const FILTERS: Record<BetFilter, (c: Contract) => boolean> = {
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resolved: (c) => !!c.resolutionTime,
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closed: (c) =>
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!FILTERS.resolved(c) && (c.closeTime ?? Infinity) < Date.now(),
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open: (c) => !(FILTERS.closed(c) || FILTERS.resolved(c)),
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all: () => true,
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// Pepe notes: most users want "settled", to see when their bets or sold; or "realized profit"
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}
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const SORTS: Record<BetSort, (c: Contract) => number> = {
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profit: (c) => contractsCurrentValue[c.id] - contractsInvestment[c.id],
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value: (c) => contractsCurrentValue[c.id],
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newest: (c) =>
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Math.max(...contractBets[c.id].map((bet) => bet.createdTime)),
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resolutionTime: (c) => -(c.resolutionTime ?? c.closeTime ?? Infinity),
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closeTime: (c) => -(c.closeTime ?? Infinity),
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}
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const displayedContracts = _.sortBy(contracts, SORTS[sort])
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.reverse()
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.filter(FILTERS[filter])
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const [settled, unsettled] = _.partition(
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contracts,
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(c) => c.isResolved || contractsInvestment[c.id] === 0
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)
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const currentInvestment = _.sumBy(unsettled, (c) => contractsInvestment[c.id])
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const currentBetsValue = _.sumBy(
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unsettled,
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(c) => contractsCurrentValue[c.id]
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)
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const totalPortfolio = currentBetsValue + user.balance
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const totalPnl = totalPortfolio - user.totalDeposits
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const totalProfitPercent = (totalPnl / user.totalDeposits) * 100
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const investedProfitPercent =
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((currentBetsValue - currentInvestment) / currentInvestment) * 100
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return (
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<Col className="mt-6 gap-4 sm:gap-6">
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<Col className="mx-4 gap-4 sm:flex-row sm:justify-between md:mx-0">
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<Row className="gap-8">
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<Col>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Investment value</div>
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<div className="text-lg">
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{formatMoney(currentBetsValue)}{' '}
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={investedProfitPercent} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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<Col>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Total profit</div>
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<div className="text-lg">
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{formatMoney(totalPnl)}{' '}
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={totalProfitPercent} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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</Row>
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<Row className="gap-8">
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<select
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className="select select-bordered self-start"
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value={filter}
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onChange={(e) => setFilter(e.target.value as BetFilter)}
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>
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<option value="open">Open</option>
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<option value="closed">Closed</option>
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<option value="resolved">Resolved</option>
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<option value="all">All</option>
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</select>
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<select
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className="select select-bordered self-start"
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value={sort}
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onChange={(e) => setSort(e.target.value as BetSort)}
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>
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<option value="value">By value</option>
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<option value="profit">By profit</option>
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<option value="newest">Most recent</option>
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<option value="closeTime">Closing soonest</option>
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<option value="resolutionTime">Resolved soonest</option>
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</select>
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</Row>
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</Col>
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{displayedContracts.length === 0 ? (
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<NoBets />
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) : (
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displayedContracts.map((contract) => (
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<MyContractBets
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key={contract.id}
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contract={contract}
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bets={contractBets[contract.id] ?? []}
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/>
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))
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)}
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</Col>
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)
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}
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const NoBets = () => {
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return (
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<div className="mx-4 text-gray-500">
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You have not made any bets yet.{' '}
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<SiteLink href="/" className="underline">
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Find a prediction market!
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</SiteLink>
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</div>
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)
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}
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function MyContractBets(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
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const { bets, contract } = props
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const { resolution, outcomeType } = contract
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const [collapsed, setCollapsed] = useState(true)
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const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
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const probPercent = getBinaryProbPercent(contract)
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return (
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<div
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tabIndex={0}
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className={clsx(
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'card card-body collapse collapse-arrow relative cursor-pointer bg-white p-6 shadow-xl',
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collapsed ? 'collapse-close' : 'collapse-open pb-2'
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)}
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onClick={() => setCollapsed((collapsed) => !collapsed)}
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>
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<Row className="flex-wrap gap-2">
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<Col className="flex-[2] gap-1">
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<Row className="mr-2 max-w-lg">
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<Link href={contractPath(contract)}>
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<a
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className="font-medium text-indigo-700 hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2"
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onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
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>
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{contract.question}
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</a>
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</Link>
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{/* Show carrot for collapsing. Hack the positioning. */}
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<div
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className="collapse-title absolute h-0 min-h-0 w-0 p-0"
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style={{ top: -10, right: 4 }}
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/>
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</Row>
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<Row className="flex-1 items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
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{isBinary && (
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<>
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{resolution ? (
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<div>
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Resolved <OutcomeLabel outcome={resolution} />
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</div>
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) : (
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<div className="text-primary text-lg">{probPercent}</div>
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)}
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<div>•</div>
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</>
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)}
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<UserLink
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name={contract.creatorName}
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username={contract.creatorUsername}
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/>
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</Row>
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</Col>
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<MyBetsSummary
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className="mr-5 justify-end sm:mr-8"
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contract={contract}
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bets={bets}
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onlyMKT
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/>
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</Row>
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<div
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className="collapse-content !px-0"
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style={{ backgroundColor: 'white' }}
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>
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<Spacer h={8} />
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<MyBetsSummary
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className="mr-5 flex-1 sm:mr-8"
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contract={contract}
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bets={bets}
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/>
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<Spacer h={8} />
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<ContractBetsTable contract={contract} bets={bets} />
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</div>
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</div>
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)
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}
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export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
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contract: Contract
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bets: Bet[]
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onlyMKT?: boolean
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className?: string
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}) {
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const { bets, contract, onlyMKT, className } = props
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const { resolution, outcomeType } = contract
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const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
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const excludeSales = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
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const betsTotal = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => bet.amount)
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const betsPayout = resolution
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? _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => resolvedPayout(contract, bet))
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: 0
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const yesWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
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calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
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)
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const noWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
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calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
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)
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// const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
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// const expectation = p * yesWinnings + (1 - p) * noWinnings
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const marketWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
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calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'MKT')
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)
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const currentValue = resolution ? betsPayout : marketWinnings
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const pnl = currentValue - betsTotal
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const profit = (pnl / betsTotal) * 100
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const valueCol = (
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-right text-lg">
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{formatMoney(currentValue)}
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</div>
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<div className="text-right">
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={profit} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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)
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const payoutCol = (
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<Col>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Payout</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(betsPayout)} <ProfitBadge profitPercent={profit} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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)
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return (
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<Row
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className={clsx(
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'gap-4 sm:gap-6',
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!onlyMKT && 'flex-wrap sm:flex-nowrap',
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className
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)}
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>
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{onlyMKT ? (
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<Row className="gap-4 sm:gap-6">{valueCol}</Row>
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) : (
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<Row className="gap-4 sm:gap-6">
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Invested
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(betsTotal)}</div>
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</Col>
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{resolution ? (
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payoutCol
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) : (
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<>
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{/* <Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Expectation
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(expectation)}
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</div>
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</Col> */}
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{isBinary && (
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<>
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Payout if <YesLabel />
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(yesWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Payout if <NoLabel />
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(noWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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</>
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)}
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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{isBinary ? (
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<>
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Payout at{' '}
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<span className="text-blue-400">
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{formatPercent(getProbability(contract))}
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</span>
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</>
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) : (
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<>Current payout</>
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)}
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(marketWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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</>
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)}
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</Row>
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)}
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</Row>
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)
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}
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export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
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contract: Contract
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bets: Bet[]
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className?: string
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}) {
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const { contract, bets, className } = props
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const [sales, buys] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.sale)
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const salesDict = _.fromPairs(
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sales.map((sale) => [sale.sale?.betId ?? '', sale])
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)
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const [redemptions, normalBets] = _.partition(buys, (b) => b.isRedemption)
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const amountRedeemed = Math.floor(
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-0.5 * _.sumBy(redemptions, (b) => b.shares)
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)
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const amountLoaned = _.sumBy(
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bets.filter((bet) => !bet.isSold && !bet.sale),
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(bet) => bet.loanAmount ?? 0
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)
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const { isResolved, mechanism } = contract
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const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
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return (
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<div className={clsx('overflow-x-auto', className)}>
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{amountRedeemed > 0 && (
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<>
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<div className="pl-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
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{amountRedeemed} YES shares and {amountRedeemed} NO shares
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automatically redeemed for {formatMoney(amountRedeemed)}.
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</div>
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<Spacer h={4} />
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</>
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)}
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{!isResolved && amountLoaned > 0 && (
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<>
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<div className="pl-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
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You currently have a loan of {formatMoney(amountLoaned)}.
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</div>
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<Spacer h={4} />
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</>
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)}
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<table className="table-zebra table-compact table w-full text-gray-500">
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<thead>
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<tr className="p-2">
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<th></th>
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{isCPMM && <th>Type</th>}
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<th>Outcome</th>
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<th>Amount</th>
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{!isCPMM && <th>{isResolved ? <>Payout</> : <>Sale price</>}</th>}
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{!isCPMM && !isResolved && <th>Payout if chosen</th>}
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<th>Shares</th>
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<th>Probability</th>
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<th>Date</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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{normalBets.map((bet) => (
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<BetRow
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key={bet.id}
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bet={bet}
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saleBet={salesDict[bet.id]}
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contract={contract}
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/>
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))}
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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)
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}
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function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract; saleBet?: Bet }) {
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const { bet, saleBet, contract } = props
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const {
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amount,
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outcome,
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createdTime,
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probBefore,
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probAfter,
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shares,
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isSold,
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isAnte,
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} = bet
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const { isResolved, closeTime, mechanism } = contract
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const isClosed = closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
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const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
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const saleAmount = saleBet?.sale?.amount
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const saleDisplay = isAnte ? (
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'ANTE'
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) : saleAmount !== undefined ? (
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<>{formatMoney(saleAmount)} (sold)</>
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) : (
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formatMoney(
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isResolved
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? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
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: calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet)
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)
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)
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const payoutIfChosenDisplay =
|
|
bet.outcome === '0' && bet.isAnte
|
|
? 'N/A'
|
|
: formatMoney(calculatePayout(contract, bet, bet.outcome))
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td className="text-neutral">
|
|
{!isCPMM && !isResolved && !isClosed && !isSold && !isAnte && (
|
|
<SellButton contract={contract} bet={bet} />
|
|
)}
|
|
</td>
|
|
{isCPMM && <td>{shares >= 0 ? 'BUY' : 'SELL'}</td>}
|
|
<td>
|
|
<OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} />
|
|
</td>
|
|
<td>{formatMoney(Math.abs(amount))}</td>
|
|
{!isCPMM && <td>{saleDisplay}</td>}
|
|
{!isCPMM && !isResolved && <td>{payoutIfChosenDisplay}</td>}
|
|
<td>{formatWithCommas(Math.abs(shares))}</td>
|
|
<td>
|
|
{formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
|
|
</td>
|
|
<td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function SellButton(props: { contract: Contract; bet: Bet }) {
|
|
useEffect(() => {
|
|
// warm up cloud function
|
|
sellBet({}).catch()
|
|
}, [])
|
|
|
|
const { contract, bet } = props
|
|
const { outcome, shares, loanAmount } = bet
|
|
|
|
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
|
|
|
|
const initialProb = getOutcomeProbability(
|
|
contract,
|
|
outcome === 'NO' ? 'YES' : outcome
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
const outcomeProb = getProbabilityAfterSale(contract, outcome, shares)
|
|
|
|
const saleAmount = calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet)
|
|
const profit = saleAmount - bet.amount
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<ConfirmationButton
|
|
id={`sell-${bet.id}`}
|
|
openModelBtn={{
|
|
className: clsx('btn-sm', isSubmitting && 'btn-disabled loading'),
|
|
label: 'Sell',
|
|
}}
|
|
submitBtn={{ className: 'btn-primary', label: 'Sell' }}
|
|
onSubmit={async () => {
|
|
setIsSubmitting(true)
|
|
await sellBet({ contractId: contract.id, betId: bet.id })
|
|
setIsSubmitting(false)
|
|
}}
|
|
>
|
|
<div className="mb-4 text-2xl">
|
|
Sell {formatWithCommas(shares)} shares of{' '}
|
|
<OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} /> for {formatMoney(saleAmount)}?
|
|
</div>
|
|
{!!loanAmount && (
|
|
<div className="mt-2">
|
|
You will also pay back {formatMoney(loanAmount)} of your loan, for a
|
|
net of {formatMoney(saleAmount - loanAmount)}.
|
|
</div>
|
|
)}
|
|
|
|
<div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm">
|
|
{profit > 0 ? 'Profit' : 'Loss'}: {formatMoney(profit).replace('-', '')}
|
|
<br />
|
|
Market probability: {formatPercent(initialProb)} →{' '}
|
|
{formatPercent(outcomeProb)}
|
|
</div>
|
|
</ConfirmationButton>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function ProfitBadge(props: { profitPercent: number }) {
|
|
const { profitPercent } = props
|
|
if (!profitPercent) return null
|
|
const colors =
|
|
profitPercent > 0
|
|
? 'bg-green-100 text-green-800'
|
|
: 'bg-red-100 text-red-800'
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<span
|
|
className={clsx(
|
|
'ml-1 inline-flex items-center rounded-full px-3 py-0.5 text-sm font-medium',
|
|
colors
|
|
)}
|
|
>
|
|
{(profitPercent > 0 ? '+' : '') + profitPercent.toFixed(1) + '%'}
|
|
</span>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|