manifold/web/components/contract/quick-bet.tsx

import clsx from 'clsx'
import {
  getOutcomeProbability,
  getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet,
  getProbability,
  getTopAnswer,
} from 'common/calculate'
import { getExpectedValue } from 'common/calculate-dpm'
import { User } from 'common/user'
import {
  BinaryContract,
  Contract,
  NumericContract,
  PseudoNumericContract,
  resolution,
} from 'common/contract'
import {
  formatLargeNumber,
  formatMoney,
  formatPercent,
} from 'common/util/format'
import { useState } from 'react'
import toast from 'react-hot-toast'
import { useUserContractBets } from 'web/hooks/use-user-bets'
import { placeBet } from 'web/lib/firebase/api'
import { getBinaryProbPercent } from 'web/lib/firebase/contracts'
import TriangleDownFillIcon from 'web/lib/icons/triangle-down-fill-icon'
import TriangleFillIcon from 'web/lib/icons/triangle-fill-icon'
import { Col } from '../layout/col'
import { OUTCOME_TO_COLOR } from '../outcome-label'
import { useSaveBinaryShares } from '../use-save-binary-shares'
import { sellShares } from 'web/lib/firebase/api'
import { calculateCpmmSale, getCpmmProbability } from 'common/calculate-cpmm'
import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
import { useUnfilledBets } from 'web/hooks/use-bets'
import { getBinaryProb } from 'common/contract-details'

const BET_SIZE = 10

export function QuickBet(props: {
  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
  user: User
}) {
  const { contract, user } = props
  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
  const isCpmm = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'

  const userBets = useUserContractBets(user.id, contract.id)
  const unfilledBets = useUnfilledBets(contract.id) ?? []

  const { hasYesShares, hasNoShares, yesShares, noShares } =
    useSaveBinaryShares(contract, userBets)
  const hasUpShares = hasYesShares
  const hasDownShares = hasNoShares && !hasUpShares

  const [upHover, setUpHover] = useState(false)
  const [downHover, setDownHover] = useState(false)

  let previewProb = undefined
  try {
    previewProb = upHover
      ? getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(
          contract,
          quickOutcome(contract, 'UP') || '',
          BET_SIZE
        )
      : downHover
      ? 1 -
        getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(
          contract,
          quickOutcome(contract, 'DOWN') || '',
          BET_SIZE
        )
      : undefined
  } catch (e) {
    // Catch any errors from hovering on an invalid option
  }

  let sharesSold: number | undefined
  let sellOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | undefined
  let saleAmount: number | undefined
  if (isCpmm && (upHover || downHover)) {
    const oppositeShares = upHover ? noShares : yesShares
    if (oppositeShares) {
      sellOutcome = upHover ? 'NO' : 'YES'

      const prob = getProb(contract)
      const maxSharesSold = BET_SIZE / (sellOutcome === 'YES' ? prob : 1 - prob)
      sharesSold = Math.min(oppositeShares, maxSharesSold)

      const { cpmmState, saleValue } = calculateCpmmSale(
        contract,
        sharesSold,
        sellOutcome,
        unfilledBets
      )
      saleAmount = saleValue
      previewProb = getCpmmProbability(cpmmState.pool, cpmmState.p)
    }
  }

  async function placeQuickBet(direction: 'UP' | 'DOWN') {
    const betPromise = async () => {
      if (sharesSold && sellOutcome) {
        return await sellShares({
          shares: sharesSold,
          outcome: sellOutcome,
          contractId: contract.id,
        })
      }

      const outcome = quickOutcome(contract, direction)
      return await placeBet({
        amount: BET_SIZE,
        outcome,
        contractId: contract.id,
      })
    }
    const shortQ = contract.question.slice(0, 20)
    const message =
      sellOutcome && saleAmount
        ? `${formatMoney(saleAmount)} sold of "${shortQ}"...`
        : `${formatMoney(BET_SIZE)} on "${shortQ}"...`

    toast.promise(betPromise(), {
      loading: message,
      success: message,
      error: (err) => `${err.message}`,
    })

    track('quick bet', {
      slug: contract.slug,
      direction,
      contractId: contract.id,
    })
  }

  return (
    <Col
      className={clsx(
        'relative min-w-[5.5rem] justify-center gap-2 pr-5 pl-1 align-middle'
        // Use this for colored QuickBet panes
        // `bg-opacity-10 bg-${color}`
      )}
    >
      {/* Up bet triangle */}
      <div>
        <div
          className="peer absolute top-0 left-0 right-0 h-[50%]"
          onMouseEnter={() => setUpHover(true)}
          onMouseLeave={() => setUpHover(false)}
          onClick={() => placeQuickBet('UP')}
        />
        <div className="mt-2 text-center text-xs text-transparent peer-hover:text-gray-400">
          {formatMoney(10)}
        </div>

        {hasUpShares ? (
          <TriangleFillIcon
            className={clsx(
              'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
              upHover ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-gray-400'
            )}
          />
        ) : (
          <TriangleFillIcon
            className={clsx(
              'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
              upHover ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-gray-200'
            )}
          />
        )}
      </div>

      <QuickOutcomeView contract={contract} previewProb={previewProb} />

      {/* Down bet triangle */}
      {outcomeType !== 'BINARY' && outcomeType !== 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' ? (
        <div>
          <div className="peer absolute bottom-0 left-0 right-0 h-[50%] cursor-default"></div>
          <TriangleDownFillIcon
            className={clsx('mx-auto h-5 w-5 text-gray-200')}
          />
        </div>
      ) : (
        <div>
          <div
            className="peer absolute bottom-0 left-0 right-0 h-[50%]"
            onMouseEnter={() => setDownHover(true)}
            onMouseLeave={() => setDownHover(false)}
            onClick={() => placeQuickBet('DOWN')}
          ></div>
          {hasDownShares ? (
            <TriangleDownFillIcon
              className={clsx(
                'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
                downHover ? 'text-red-500' : 'text-gray-400'
              )}
            />
          ) : (
            <TriangleDownFillIcon
              className={clsx(
                'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
                downHover ? 'text-red-500' : 'text-gray-200'
              )}
            />
          )}
          <div className="mb-2 text-center text-xs text-transparent peer-hover:text-gray-400">
            {formatMoney(10)}
          </div>
        </div>
      )}
    </Col>
  )
}

export function ProbBar(props: { contract: Contract; previewProb?: number }) {
  const { contract, previewProb } = props
  const color = getColor(contract)
  const prob = previewProb ?? getProb(contract)
  return (
    <>
      <div
        className={clsx(
          'absolute right-0 top-0 w-1.5 rounded-tr-md transition-all',
          'bg-gray-100'
        )}
        style={{ height: `${100 * (1 - prob)}%` }}
      />
      <div
        className={clsx(
          'absolute right-0 bottom-0 w-1.5 rounded-br-md transition-all',
          `bg-${color}`,
          // If we're showing the full bar, also round the top
          prob === 1 ? 'rounded-tr-md' : ''
        )}
        style={{ height: `${100 * prob}%` }}
      />
    </>
  )
}

function quickOutcome(contract: Contract, direction: 'UP' | 'DOWN') {
  const { outcomeType } = contract

  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
    return direction === 'UP' ? 'YES' : 'NO'
  }
  if (outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
    // TODO: Implement shorting of free response answers
    if (direction === 'DOWN') {
      throw new Error("Can't bet against free response answers")
    }
    return getTopAnswer(contract)?.id
  }
  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
    // TODO: Ideally an 'UP' bet would be a uniform bet between [current, max]
    throw new Error("Can't quick bet on numeric markets")
  }
}

function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
  contract: Contract
  previewProb?: number
  caption?: 'chance' | 'expected'
}) {
  const { contract, previewProb, caption } = props
  const { outcomeType } = contract
  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'

  // If there's a preview prob, display that instead of the current prob
  const override =
    previewProb === undefined
      ? undefined
      : isPseudoNumeric
      ? formatNumericProbability(previewProb, contract)
      : formatPercent(previewProb)

  const textColor = `text-${getColor(contract)}`

  let display: string | undefined
  switch (outcomeType) {
    case 'BINARY':
      display = getBinaryProbPercent(contract)
      break
    case 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC':
      display = formatNumericProbability(getProbability(contract), contract)
      break
    case 'NUMERIC':
      display = formatLargeNumber(getExpectedValue(contract))
      break
    case 'FREE_RESPONSE': {
      const topAnswer = getTopAnswer(contract)
      display =
        topAnswer &&
        formatPercent(getOutcomeProbability(contract, topAnswer.id))
      break
    }
  }

  return (
    <Col className={clsx('items-center text-3xl', textColor)}>
      {override ?? display}
      {caption && <div className="text-base">{caption}</div>}
      <ProbBar contract={contract} previewProb={previewProb} />
    </Col>
  )
}

// Return a number from 0 to 1 for this contract
// Resolved contracts are set to 1, for coloring purposes (even if NO)
function getProb(contract: Contract) {
  const { outcomeType, resolution, resolutionProbability } = contract
  return resolutionProbability
    ? resolutionProbability
    : resolution
    ? 1
    : outcomeType === 'BINARY'
    ? getBinaryProb(contract)
    : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
    ? getProbability(contract)
    : outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' || outcomeType === 'MULTIPLE_CHOICE'
    ? getOutcomeProbability(contract, getTopAnswer(contract)?.id || '')
    : outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
    ? getNumericScale(contract)
    : 1 // Should not happen
}

function getNumericScale(contract: NumericContract) {
  const { min, max } = contract
  const ev = getExpectedValue(contract)
  return (ev - min) / (max - min)
}

export function getColor(contract: Contract) {
  // TODO: Try injecting a gradient here
  // return 'primary'
  const { resolution, outcomeType } = contract

  if (resolution) {
    return (
      OUTCOME_TO_COLOR[resolution as resolution] ??
      // If resolved to a FR answer, use 'primary'
      'primary'
    )
  }

  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') return 'blue-400'

  if ((contract.closeTime ?? Infinity) < Date.now()) {
    return 'gray-400'
  }

  // TODO: Not sure why eg green-400 doesn't work here; try upgrading Tailwind
  return 'primary'
}