manifold/common/payouts.ts
2022-03-02 22:30:07 -05:00

293 lines
7.6 KiB
TypeScript

import * as _ from 'lodash'
import { Bet } from './bet'
import { deductDpmFees, getDpmProbability } from './calculate-dpm'
import {
Binary,
Contract,
CPMM,
DPM,
FreeResponse,
FullContract,
Multi,
} from './contract'
import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
export const getDpmCancelPayouts = (
contract: FullContract<DPM, any>,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const { pool } = contract
const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
return bets.map((bet) => ({
userId: bet.userId,
payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * poolTotal,
}))
}
export const getFixedCancelPayouts = (bets: Bet[]) => {
return bets.map((bet) => ({
userId: bet.userId,
payout: bet.amount,
}))
}
export const getStandardFixedPayouts = (
outcome: string,
contract: FullContract<CPMM, Binary>,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome)
const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
const winnings = shares
const profit = winnings - amount
const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * profit
return { userId, profit, payout }
})
const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
console.log(
'resolved',
outcome,
'pool',
contract.pool,
'profits',
profits,
'creator fee',
creatorPayout
)
return payouts
.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
.concat(getLiquidityPoolPayouts(contract, outcome))
}
export const getLiquidityPoolPayouts = (
contract: FullContract<CPMM, Binary>,
outcome: string
) => {
const { creatorId, pool } = contract
return [{ userId: creatorId, payout: pool[outcome] }]
}
export const getStandardPayouts = (
outcome: string,
contract: FullContract<DPM, any>,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome)
const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool))
const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * poolTotal
const profit = winnings - amount
// profit can be negative if using phantom shares
const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, profit)
return { userId, profit, payout }
})
const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
console.log(
'resolved',
outcome,
'pool',
poolTotal,
'profits',
profits,
'creator fee',
creatorPayout
)
return payouts
.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
}
export const getMktPayouts = (
contract: FullContract<DPM, any>,
bets: Bet[],
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
const p =
resolutionProbability === undefined
? getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares)
: resolutionProbability
const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(bets, (b) =>
b.outcome === 'YES' ? p * b.shares : (1 - p) * b.shares
)
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
const payouts = bets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => {
const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
const profit = winnings - amount
const payout = deductDpmFees(amount, winnings)
return { userId, profit, payout }
})
const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
console.log(
'resolved MKT',
p,
'pool',
pool,
'profits',
profits,
'creator fee',
creatorPayout
)
return payouts
.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
}
export const getMktFixedPayouts = (
contract: FullContract<CPMM, Binary>,
bets: Bet[],
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
const p =
resolutionProbability === undefined
? getDpmProbability(contract.pool)
: resolutionProbability
const payouts = bets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => {
const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
const winnings = betP * shares
const profit = winnings - amount
const payout = deductDpmFees(amount, winnings)
return { userId, profit, payout }
})
const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
console.log(
'resolved MKT',
p,
'pool',
contract.pool,
'profits',
profits,
'creator fee',
creatorPayout
)
return payouts
.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
.concat(getLiquidityPoolProbPayouts(contract, p))
}
export const getLiquidityPoolProbPayouts = (
contract: FullContract<CPMM, Binary>,
p: number
) => {
const { creatorId, pool } = contract
const payout = p * pool.YES + (1 - p) * pool.NO
return [{ userId: creatorId, payout }]
}
export const getPayouts = (
outcome: string,
contract: Contract,
bets: Bet[],
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
if (contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1') {
switch (outcome) {
case 'YES':
case 'NO':
return getStandardFixedPayouts(outcome, contract as any, bets)
case 'MKT':
return getMktFixedPayouts(contract as any, bets, resolutionProbability)
case 'CANCEL':
return getFixedCancelPayouts(bets)
}
}
switch (outcome) {
case 'YES':
case 'NO':
return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
case 'MKT':
return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability)
case 'CANCEL':
return getDpmCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
default:
// Multi outcome.
return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
}
}
export const getPayoutsMultiOutcome = (
resolutions: { [outcome: string]: number },
contract: FullContract<DPM, Multi | FreeResponse>,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool))
const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => resolutions[bet.outcome])
const betsByOutcome = _.groupBy(winningBets, (bet) => bet.outcome)
const sharesByOutcome = _.mapValues(betsByOutcome, (bets) =>
_.sumBy(bets, (bet) => bet.shares)
)
const probTotal = _.sum(Object.values(resolutions))
const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => {
const prob = resolutions[outcome] / probTotal
const winnings = (shares / sharesByOutcome[outcome]) * prob * poolTotal
const profit = winnings - amount
const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, profit)
return { userId, profit, payout }
})
const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => po.profit)
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
console.log(
'resolved',
resolutions,
'pool',
poolTotal,
'profits',
profits,
'creator fee',
creatorPayout
)
return payouts
.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
}
export const getLoanPayouts = (bets: Bet[]) => {
const betsWithLoans = bets.filter((bet) => bet.loanAmount)
const betsByUser = _.groupBy(betsWithLoans, (bet) => bet.userId)
const loansByUser = _.mapValues(betsByUser, (bets) =>
_.sumBy(bets, (bet) => -(bet.loanAmount ?? 0))
)
return _.toPairs(loansByUser).map(([userId, payout]) => ({ userId, payout }))
}