1a6afaf44f
* create pseudo-numeric contracts * graph and bet panel for pseudo numeric * pseudo numeric market layout, quick betting * Estimated value * sell panel * fix graph * pseudo numeric resolution * bets tab * redemption for pseudo numeric markets * create log scale market, validation * log scale * create: initial value can't be min or max * don't allow log scale for ranges with negative values (b/c of problem with graph library) * prettier delenda est * graph: handle min value of zero * bet labeling * validation * prettier * pseudo numeric embeds * update disclaimer * validation * validation
743 lines
22 KiB
TypeScript
743 lines
22 KiB
TypeScript
import Link from 'next/link'
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import { uniq, groupBy, mapValues, sortBy, partition, sumBy } from 'lodash'
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import dayjs from 'dayjs'
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import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
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import clsx from 'clsx'
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import { useUserBets } from 'web/hooks/use-user-bets'
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import { Bet } from 'web/lib/firebase/bets'
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import { User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
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import {
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formatLargeNumber,
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formatMoney,
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formatPercent,
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formatWithCommas,
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} from 'common/util/format'
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import { Col } from './layout/col'
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import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
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import {
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Contract,
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getContractFromId,
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contractPath,
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getBinaryProbPercent,
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} from 'web/lib/firebase/contracts'
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import { Row } from './layout/row'
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import { UserLink } from './user-page'
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import { sellBet } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
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import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
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import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel } from './outcome-label'
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import { filterDefined } from 'common/util/array'
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import { LoadingIndicator } from './loading-indicator'
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import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
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import {
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calculatePayout,
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calculateSaleAmount,
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getOutcomeProbability,
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getProbabilityAfterSale,
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getContractBetMetrics,
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resolvedPayout,
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getContractBetNullMetrics,
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} from 'common/calculate'
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import { useTimeSinceFirstRender } from 'web/hooks/use-time-since-first-render'
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import { trackLatency } from 'web/lib/firebase/tracking'
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import { NumericContract } from 'common/contract'
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import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
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import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
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import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
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type BetSort = 'newest' | 'profit' | 'closeTime' | 'value'
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type BetFilter = 'open' | 'sold' | 'closed' | 'resolved' | 'all'
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export function BetsList(props: { user: User; hideBetsBefore?: number }) {
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const { user, hideBetsBefore } = props
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const signedInUser = useUser()
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const isYourBets = user.id === signedInUser?.id
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const allBets = useUserBets(user.id, { includeRedemptions: true })
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// Hide bets before 06-01-2022 if this isn't your own profile
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// NOTE: This means public profits also begin on 06-01-2022 as well.
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const bets = allBets?.filter(
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(bet) => bet.createdTime >= (hideBetsBefore ?? 0)
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)
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const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | undefined>()
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const [sort, setSort] = useState<BetSort>('newest')
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const [filter, setFilter] = useState<BetFilter>('open')
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useEffect(() => {
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if (bets) {
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const contractIds = uniq(bets.map((bet) => bet.contractId))
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let disposed = false
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Promise.all(contractIds.map((id) => getContractFromId(id))).then(
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(contracts) => {
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if (!disposed) setContracts(filterDefined(contracts))
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}
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)
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return () => {
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disposed = true
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}
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}
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// eslint-disable-next-line react-hooks/exhaustive-deps
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}, [allBets, hideBetsBefore])
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const getTime = useTimeSinceFirstRender()
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useEffect(() => {
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if (bets && contracts) {
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trackLatency('portfolio', getTime())
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}
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// eslint-disable-next-line react-hooks/exhaustive-deps
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}, [!!bets, !!contracts])
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if (!bets || !contracts) {
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return <LoadingIndicator />
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}
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if (bets.length === 0) return <NoBets user={user} />
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// Decending creation time.
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bets.sort((bet1, bet2) => bet2.createdTime - bet1.createdTime)
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const contractBets = groupBy(bets, 'contractId')
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const contractsById = Object.fromEntries(contracts.map((c) => [c.id, c]))
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const contractsMetrics = mapValues(contractBets, (bets, contractId) => {
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const contract = contractsById[contractId]
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if (!contract) return getContractBetNullMetrics()
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return getContractBetMetrics(contract, bets)
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})
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const FILTERS: Record<BetFilter, (c: Contract) => boolean> = {
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resolved: (c) => !!c.resolutionTime,
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closed: (c) =>
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!FILTERS.resolved(c) && (c.closeTime ?? Infinity) < Date.now(),
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open: (c) => !(FILTERS.closed(c) || FILTERS.resolved(c)),
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all: () => true,
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sold: () => true,
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}
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const SORTS: Record<BetSort, (c: Contract) => number> = {
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profit: (c) => contractsMetrics[c.id].profit,
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value: (c) => contractsMetrics[c.id].payout,
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newest: (c) =>
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Math.max(...contractBets[c.id].map((bet) => bet.createdTime)),
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closeTime: (c) =>
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// This is in fact the intuitive sort direction.
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(filter === 'open' ? -1 : 1) *
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(c.resolutionTime ?? c.closeTime ?? Infinity),
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}
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const displayedContracts = sortBy(contracts, SORTS[sort])
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.reverse()
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.filter(FILTERS[filter])
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.filter((c) => {
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if (filter === 'all') return true
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const { hasShares } = contractsMetrics[c.id]
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if (filter === 'sold') return !hasShares
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return hasShares
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})
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const unsettled = contracts.filter(
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(c) => !c.isResolved && contractsMetrics[c.id].invested !== 0
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)
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const currentInvested = sumBy(
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unsettled,
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(c) => contractsMetrics[c.id].invested
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)
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const currentBetsValue = sumBy(
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unsettled,
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(c) => contractsMetrics[c.id].payout
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)
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const currentNetInvestment = sumBy(
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unsettled,
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(c) => contractsMetrics[c.id].netPayout
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)
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const totalPortfolio = currentNetInvestment + user.balance
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const totalPnl = totalPortfolio - user.totalDeposits
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const totalProfitPercent = (totalPnl / user.totalDeposits) * 100
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const investedProfitPercent =
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((currentBetsValue - currentInvested) / (currentInvested + 0.1)) * 100
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return (
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<Col className="mt-6">
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<Col className="mx-4 gap-4 sm:flex-row sm:justify-between md:mx-0">
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<Row className="gap-8">
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<Col>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Investment value</div>
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<div className="text-lg">
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{formatMoney(currentNetInvestment)}{' '}
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={investedProfitPercent} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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<Col>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Total profit</div>
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<div className="text-lg">
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{formatMoney(totalPnl)}{' '}
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={totalProfitPercent} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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</Row>
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<Row className="gap-8">
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<select
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className="select select-bordered self-start"
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value={filter}
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onChange={(e) => setFilter(e.target.value as BetFilter)}
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>
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<option value="open">Open</option>
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<option value="sold">Sold</option>
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<option value="closed">Closed</option>
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<option value="resolved">Resolved</option>
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<option value="all">All</option>
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</select>
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<select
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className="select select-bordered self-start"
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value={sort}
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onChange={(e) => setSort(e.target.value as BetSort)}
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>
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<option value="newest">Recent</option>
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<option value="value">Value</option>
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<option value="profit">Profit</option>
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<option value="closeTime">Close date</option>
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</select>
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</Row>
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</Col>
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<Col className="mt-6 divide-y">
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{displayedContracts.length === 0 ? (
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<NoBets user={user} />
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) : (
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displayedContracts.map((contract) => (
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<ContractBets
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key={contract.id}
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contract={contract}
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bets={contractBets[contract.id] ?? []}
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metric={sort === 'profit' ? 'profit' : 'value'}
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isYourBets={isYourBets}
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/>
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))
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)}
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</Col>
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</Col>
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)
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}
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const NoBets = ({ user }: { user: User }) => {
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const me = useUser()
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return (
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<div className="mx-4 text-gray-500">
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{user.id === me?.id ? (
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<>
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You have not made any bets yet.{' '}
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<SiteLink href="/home" className="underline">
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Find a prediction market!
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</SiteLink>
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</>
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) : (
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<>{user.name} has not made any public bets yet.</>
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)}
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</div>
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)
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}
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function ContractBets(props: {
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contract: Contract
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bets: Bet[]
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metric: 'profit' | 'value'
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isYourBets: boolean
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}) {
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const { bets, contract, metric, isYourBets } = props
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const { resolution, outcomeType } = contract
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const resolutionValue = (contract as NumericContract).resolutionValue
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const [collapsed, setCollapsed] = useState(true)
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const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
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const { payout, profit, profitPercent } = getContractBetMetrics(
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contract,
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bets
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)
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return (
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<div
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tabIndex={0}
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className={clsx(
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'collapse collapse-arrow relative bg-white p-4 pr-6',
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collapsed ? 'collapse-close' : 'collapse-open pb-2'
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)}
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>
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<Row
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className="cursor-pointer flex-wrap gap-2"
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onClick={() => setCollapsed((collapsed) => !collapsed)}
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>
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<Col className="flex-[2] gap-1">
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<Row className="mr-2 max-w-lg">
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<Link href={contractPath(contract)}>
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<a
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className="font-medium text-indigo-700 hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2"
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onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
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>
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{contract.question}
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</a>
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</Link>
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{/* Show carrot for collapsing. Hack the positioning. */}
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<div
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className="collapse-title absolute h-0 min-h-0 w-0 p-0"
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style={{ top: -10, right: 0 }}
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/>
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</Row>
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<Row className="flex-1 items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
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{resolution ? (
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<>
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<div>
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Resolved{' '}
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<OutcomeLabel
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outcome={resolution}
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value={resolutionValue}
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contract={contract}
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truncate="short"
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/>
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</div>
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<div>•</div>
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</>
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) : isBinary ? (
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<>
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<div className="text-primary text-lg">
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{getBinaryProbPercent(contract)}
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</div>
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<div>•</div>
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</>
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) : null}
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<UserLink
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name={contract.creatorName}
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username={contract.creatorUsername}
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/>
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</Row>
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</Col>
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<Row className="mr-5 justify-end sm:mr-8">
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-right text-lg">
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{formatMoney(metric === 'profit' ? profit : payout)}
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</div>
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<div className="text-right">
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={profitPercent} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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</Row>
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</Row>
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<div
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className="collapse-content !px-0"
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style={{ backgroundColor: 'white' }}
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>
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<Spacer h={8} />
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<BetsSummary
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className="mr-5 flex-1 sm:mr-8"
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contract={contract}
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bets={bets}
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isYourBets={isYourBets}
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/>
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<Spacer h={8} />
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<ContractBetsTable
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contract={contract}
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bets={bets}
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isYourBets={isYourBets}
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/>
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</div>
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</div>
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)
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}
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export function BetsSummary(props: {
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contract: Contract
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bets: Bet[]
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isYourBets: boolean
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className?: string
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}) {
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const { contract, isYourBets, className } = props
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const { resolution, closeTime, outcomeType, mechanism } = contract
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const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
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const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
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const isCpmm = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
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const isClosed = closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
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const bets = props.bets.filter((b) => !b.isAnte)
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const { hasShares } = getContractBetMetrics(contract, bets)
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const excludeSalesAndAntes = bets.filter(
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(b) => !b.isAnte && !b.isSold && !b.sale
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)
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const yesWinnings = sumBy(excludeSalesAndAntes, (bet) =>
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calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
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)
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const noWinnings = sumBy(excludeSalesAndAntes, (bet) =>
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calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
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)
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const { invested, profitPercent, payout, profit, totalShares } =
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getContractBetMetrics(contract, bets)
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const [showSellModal, setShowSellModal] = useState(false)
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const user = useUser()
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return (
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<Row className={clsx('flex-wrap gap-4 sm:flex-nowrap sm:gap-6', className)}>
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<Row className="flex-wrap gap-4 sm:gap-6">
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{!isCpmm && (
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Invested
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(invested)}</div>
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</Col>
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)}
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{resolution ? (
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<Col>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Payout</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(payout)}{' '}
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<ProfitBadge profitPercent={profitPercent} />
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</div>
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</Col>
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) : (
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<>
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{isBinary ? (
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<>
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Payout if <YesLabel />
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(yesWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Payout if <NoLabel />
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(noWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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</>
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) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
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<>
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Payout if {'>='} {formatLargeNumber(contract.max)}
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(yesWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Payout if {'<='} {formatLargeNumber(contract.min)}
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(noWinnings)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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</>
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) : (
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
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Current value
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</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(payout)}</div>
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</Col>
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)}
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</>
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)}
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<Col>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">Profit</div>
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<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
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{formatMoney(profit)} <ProfitBadge profitPercent={profitPercent} />
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{isYourBets &&
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isCpmm &&
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isBinary &&
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!isClosed &&
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!resolution &&
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hasShares &&
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user && (
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<>
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<button
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className="btn btn-sm ml-2"
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onClick={() => setShowSellModal(true)}
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>
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Sell
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</button>
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{showSellModal && (
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<SellSharesModal
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contract={contract}
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user={user}
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userBets={bets}
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shares={totalShares.YES || totalShares.NO}
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sharesOutcome={totalShares.YES ? 'YES' : 'NO'}
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setOpen={setShowSellModal}
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/>
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)}
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</>
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)}
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</div>
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</Col>
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</Row>
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</Row>
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)
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}
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|
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export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
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contract: Contract
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bets: Bet[]
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isYourBets: boolean
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className?: string
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}) {
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const { contract, className, isYourBets } = props
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|
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const bets = sortBy(
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props.bets.filter((b) => !b.isAnte),
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(bet) => bet.createdTime
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).reverse()
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const [sales, buys] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.sale)
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|
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const salesDict = Object.fromEntries(
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sales.map((sale) => [sale.sale?.betId ?? '', sale])
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)
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const [redemptions, normalBets] = partition(
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contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? bets : buys,
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(b) => b.isRedemption
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)
|
|
const amountRedeemed = Math.floor(-0.5 * sumBy(redemptions, (b) => b.shares))
|
|
|
|
const amountLoaned = sumBy(
|
|
bets.filter((bet) => !bet.isSold && !bet.sale),
|
|
(bet) => bet.loanAmount ?? 0
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
const { isResolved, mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
|
|
const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
|
|
const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
|
|
const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<div className={clsx('overflow-x-auto', className)}>
|
|
{amountRedeemed > 0 && (
|
|
<>
|
|
<div className="pl-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
|
|
{amountRedeemed} {isPseudoNumeric ? 'HIGHER' : 'YES'} shares and{' '}
|
|
{amountRedeemed} {isPseudoNumeric ? 'LOWER' : 'NO'} shares
|
|
automatically redeemed for {formatMoney(amountRedeemed)}.
|
|
</div>
|
|
<Spacer h={4} />
|
|
</>
|
|
)}
|
|
|
|
{!isResolved && amountLoaned > 0 && (
|
|
<>
|
|
<div className="pl-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
|
|
You currently have a loan of {formatMoney(amountLoaned)}.
|
|
</div>
|
|
<Spacer h={4} />
|
|
</>
|
|
)}
|
|
|
|
<table className="table-zebra table-compact table w-full text-gray-500">
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr className="p-2">
|
|
<th></th>
|
|
{isCPMM && <th>Type</th>}
|
|
<th>Outcome</th>
|
|
<th>Amount</th>
|
|
{!isCPMM && !isNumeric && (
|
|
<th>{isResolved ? <>Payout</> : <>Sale price</>}</th>
|
|
)}
|
|
{!isCPMM && !isResolved && <th>Payout if chosen</th>}
|
|
<th>Shares</th>
|
|
{!isPseudoNumeric && <th>Probability</th>}
|
|
<th>Date</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
{normalBets.map((bet) => (
|
|
<BetRow
|
|
key={bet.id}
|
|
bet={bet}
|
|
saleBet={salesDict[bet.id]}
|
|
contract={contract}
|
|
isYourBet={isYourBets}
|
|
/>
|
|
))}
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function BetRow(props: {
|
|
bet: Bet
|
|
contract: Contract
|
|
saleBet?: Bet
|
|
isYourBet: boolean
|
|
}) {
|
|
const { bet, saleBet, contract, isYourBet } = props
|
|
const {
|
|
amount,
|
|
outcome,
|
|
createdTime,
|
|
probBefore,
|
|
probAfter,
|
|
shares,
|
|
isSold,
|
|
isAnte,
|
|
} = bet
|
|
|
|
const { isResolved, closeTime, mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
|
|
|
|
const isClosed = closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
|
|
|
|
const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
|
|
const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
|
|
const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
|
|
|
|
const saleAmount = saleBet?.sale?.amount
|
|
|
|
const saleDisplay = isAnte ? (
|
|
'ANTE'
|
|
) : saleAmount !== undefined ? (
|
|
<>{formatMoney(saleAmount)} (sold)</>
|
|
) : (
|
|
formatMoney(
|
|
isResolved
|
|
? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
|
|
: calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet)
|
|
)
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
const payoutIfChosenDisplay =
|
|
bet.isAnte && outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' && bet.outcome === '0'
|
|
? 'N/A'
|
|
: formatMoney(calculatePayout(contract, bet, bet.outcome))
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td className="text-neutral">
|
|
{isYourBet &&
|
|
!isCPMM &&
|
|
!isResolved &&
|
|
!isClosed &&
|
|
!isSold &&
|
|
!isAnte &&
|
|
!isNumeric && <SellButton contract={contract} bet={bet} />}
|
|
</td>
|
|
{isCPMM && <td>{shares >= 0 ? 'BUY' : 'SELL'}</td>}
|
|
<td>
|
|
{bet.isAnte ? (
|
|
'ANTE'
|
|
) : (
|
|
<OutcomeLabel
|
|
outcome={outcome}
|
|
value={(bet as any).value}
|
|
contract={contract}
|
|
truncate="short"
|
|
/>
|
|
)}
|
|
{isPseudoNumeric &&
|
|
' than ' + formatNumericProbability(bet.probAfter, contract)}
|
|
</td>
|
|
<td>{formatMoney(Math.abs(amount))}</td>
|
|
{!isCPMM && !isNumeric && <td>{saleDisplay}</td>}
|
|
{!isCPMM && !isResolved && <td>{payoutIfChosenDisplay}</td>}
|
|
<td>{formatWithCommas(Math.abs(shares))}</td>
|
|
{!isPseudoNumeric && (
|
|
<td>
|
|
{formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
|
|
</td>
|
|
)}
|
|
<td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function SellButton(props: { contract: Contract; bet: Bet }) {
|
|
const { contract, bet } = props
|
|
const { outcome, shares, loanAmount } = bet
|
|
|
|
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
|
|
|
|
const initialProb = getOutcomeProbability(
|
|
contract,
|
|
outcome === 'NO' ? 'YES' : outcome
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
const outcomeProb = getProbabilityAfterSale(contract, outcome, shares)
|
|
|
|
const saleAmount = calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet)
|
|
const profit = saleAmount - bet.amount
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<ConfirmationButton
|
|
openModalBtn={{
|
|
className: clsx('btn-sm', isSubmitting && 'btn-disabled loading'),
|
|
label: 'Sell',
|
|
}}
|
|
submitBtn={{ className: 'btn-primary', label: 'Sell' }}
|
|
onSubmit={async () => {
|
|
setIsSubmitting(true)
|
|
await sellBet({ contractId: contract.id, betId: bet.id })
|
|
setIsSubmitting(false)
|
|
}}
|
|
>
|
|
<div className="mb-4 text-2xl">
|
|
Sell {formatWithCommas(shares)} shares of{' '}
|
|
<OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} contract={contract} truncate="long" />{' '}
|
|
for {formatMoney(saleAmount)}?
|
|
</div>
|
|
{!!loanAmount && (
|
|
<div className="mt-2">
|
|
You will also pay back {formatMoney(loanAmount)} of your loan, for a
|
|
net of {formatMoney(saleAmount - loanAmount)}.
|
|
</div>
|
|
)}
|
|
|
|
<div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm">
|
|
{profit > 0 ? 'Profit' : 'Loss'}: {formatMoney(profit).replace('-', '')}
|
|
<br />
|
|
Market probability: {formatPercent(initialProb)} →{' '}
|
|
{formatPercent(outcomeProb)}
|
|
</div>
|
|
</ConfirmationButton>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function ProfitBadge(props: { profitPercent: number }) {
|
|
const { profitPercent } = props
|
|
if (!profitPercent) return null
|
|
const colors =
|
|
profitPercent > 0
|
|
? 'bg-green-100 text-green-800'
|
|
: 'bg-red-100 text-red-800'
|
|
|
|
return (
|
|
<span
|
|
className={clsx(
|
|
'ml-1 inline-flex items-center rounded-full px-3 py-0.5 text-sm font-medium',
|
|
colors
|
|
)}
|
|
>
|
|
{(profitPercent > 0 ? '+' : '') + profitPercent.toFixed(1) + '%'}
|
|
</span>
|
|
)
|
|
}
|