Commit Graph

29 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Marshall Polaris
7c4ec2a8e3
Refactor contract typing to be more concise and more correct (#355)
* Refactor contract types slightly

* Refactor contract types greatly

* Kill dead binary DPM contract creation code

* Use BinaryContract, DPMContract, etc. type aliases
2022-05-31 19:42:35 -07:00
James Grugett
45f92379bc Portfolio: Fix calculation of whether you sold all your shares 2022-05-28 00:18:09 -05:00
Marshall Polaris
47f10301c8
Change lodash stuff so that it can be tree-shaken out of build (#233)
* Set common package.json sideEffects: false

* Configure SWC to modularize lodash imports

* Import specific lodash functions instead of _

* Add an eslint rule to avoid full lodash import
2022-05-22 01:36:05 -07:00
James Grugett
76f27d1a93
Numeric range markets!! (#146)
* Numeric contract type

* Create market numeric type

* Add numeric graph (coded without testing)

* Outline of numeric bet panel

* Update bet panel logic

* create numeric contracts

* remove batching for antes for numeric markets

* Remove focus

* numeric market range [1, 100]

* Zoom graph

* Hide bet panels

* getNumericBets

* Add numeric resolution panel

* Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc

* Switch bucket count to 100

* Parallelize ante creation

* placeBet for numeric markets

* halve std of numeric bets

* Update resolveMarket with numeric type

* Set min and max for contract

* lower std for numeric bets

* calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order

* Use min and max to map the input

* Fix probability calc

* normpdf variance mislabeled

* range input

* merge

* change numeric graph color

* fix getNewContract params

* bet panel labels

* validation

* number input

* fix bucketing

* bucket input, numeric resolution panel

* outcome label

* merge

* numeric bet panel on mobile

* Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable

* Default to 'all' feed category when loading page.

* fix numeric resolution panel

* fix numeric bet panel calculations

* display numeric resolution

* don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets

* numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object

* restore your bets for numeric markets

* numeric pnl calculations

* remove hasUserHitManaLimit

* contrain contract type

* handle undefined allOutcomeShares

* numeric ante bet amount

* use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts

* change numeric graph/outcome color

* numeric constants

* hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet

* remove comment

* fix ante display in bet list

* halve bucket count

* cast to NumericContract

* fix merge imports

* OUTCOME_TYPES

* typo

* lower bucket count to 200

* store raw numeric value with bet

* store raw numeric resolution value

* number input max length

* create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market

* numeric resolution formatting

* expected value for numeric markets

* expected value for numeric markets

* rearrange lines for readability

* move normalpdf to util/math

* show bets tab

* check if outcomeMode is undefined

* remove extraneous auto-merge cruft

* hide comment status for numeric markets

* import

Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 12:42:03 -05:00
Boa
a5b0372a6e
Free response markets with investment cap (#157)
* Show error message for FR bet

* Allow M$ limit for markets

* Allow M$ limit for markets

* Apply M$ limit to FR answer bets

* Improve error message

* Improve error message

* Only check stats if mana limit set

* Consolidate logic

* Remove unused variable

* absolute import

* absolute imports
2022-05-09 14:09:07 -06:00
James Grugett
1af0740f10 Fix explore on dev 2022-04-21 12:43:57 -05:00
James Grugett
01e43abd17 Add factors to weight new contracts higher, contracts with unseen comments, and contracts with prob closer to 50% 2022-04-20 16:37:01 -05:00
mantikoros
7abc11c146 getInitialProbability: use totalShares to calculate prob for ported contracts 2022-04-18 17:15:25 -05:00
James Grugett
8a59ab3180 Tweak current investment calculation 2022-04-13 22:28:29 -05:00
James Grugett
2a3593c269 Fix profit calculation for dpm sales 2022-04-13 20:42:47 -05:00
James Grugett
bfb708d477 Fix profit calculation for cpmm sales. Change totalValue to investment value excluding sales 2022-04-13 17:25:32 -05:00
mantikoros
2fe71731e4 create: fixed ante of $100 2022-04-09 13:51:22 -05:00
James Grugett
5dcd43f5b2 Refactor tricky bet calculations to one function 2022-04-03 14:48:53 -05:00
James Grugett
3eb0bb1711 Throw error if sell conditions don't hold 2022-03-29 21:30:04 -05:00
mantikoros
c183e00d47
Cfmm (#64)
* cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions

* remove unnecessary property

* contract type

* rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts'

* rename dpm calculations

* use focus hook

* mechanism-agnostic calculations

* bet panel: use new calculations

* use new calculations

* delete markets cloud function

* use correct contract type in scripts / functions

* calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations

* new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase

* getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet

* use deductFixedFees

* fix auto-refactor

* fix antes

* separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed

* liquidity provision tracking

* remove comment

* liquidity label

* create liquidity provision even if no ante bet

* liquidity fee

* use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts

* updateUserBalance: allow negative balances

* store initialProbability in contracts

* turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee

* Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched

* share redemption

* cpmm ContractBetsTable display

* formatMoney: handle minus zero

* filter out redemption bets

* track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution

* small fixes

* small fixes

* Redeem shares pays back loans first

* Fix initial point on graph

* calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee

* Filter out redemption bets from feed

* set env to dev for user-testing purposes

* creator fees messaging

* new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p

* addCpmmLiquidity

* correct price function

* enable fees

* handle overflow

* liquidity provision tracking

* raise fees

* Fix merge error

* fix dpm free response payout for single outcome

* Fix DPM payout calculation

* Remove hardcoding as dev

Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 17:27:51 -05:00
mantikoros
8e33c2b639 for sales, show change in implied probability 2022-02-17 18:24:10 -06:00
James Grugett
b2501d8145
Free response (#47)
* Answer datatype and MULTI outcome type for Contract

* Create free answer contract

* Automatically sort Tailwind classes with Prettier (#45)

* Add Prettier Tailwind plugin

* Autoformat Tailwind classes with Prettier

* Allow for non-binary contracts in contract page and related components

* logo with white inside, transparent bg

* Create answer

* Some UI for showing answers

* Answer bet panel

* Convert rest of calcuate file to generic multi contracts

* Working betting with ante'd NONE answer

* Numbered answers. Layout & calculation tweaks

* Can bet. More layout tweaks!

* Resolve answer UI

* Resolve multi market

* Resolved market UI

* Fix feed and cards for multi contracts

* Sell bets. Various fixes

* Tweaks for trades page

* Always dev mode

* Create answer bet has isAnte: true

* Fix  card showing 0% for multi contracts

* Fix grouped bets feed for multi outcomes

* None option converted to none of the above label at bottom of list. Button to resolve none.

* Tweaks to no answers yet, resolve button layout

* Show ante bets on new answers in the feed

* Update placeholder text for description

* Consolidate firestore rules for subcollections

* Remove Contract and Bet type params. Use string type for outcomes.

* Increase char limit to 10k for answers. Preserve line breaks.

* Don't show resolve options after answer chosen

* Fix type error in script

* Remove NONE resolution option

* Change outcomeType to include 'MULTI' and 'FREE_RESPONSE'

* Show bet probability change and payout when creating answer

* User info change: also change answers

* Append answers to contract field 'answers'

* sort trades by resolved

* Don't include trailing !:,.; in links

* Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney

* Revert "Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney"

This reverts commit 2f7ab18429.

* Consistently floor user.balance

* Expand create panel on focus

From Richard Hanania's feedback

* welcome email: include link to manifold

* Fix home page in dev on branches that are not free-response

* Close emails (#50)

* script init for stephen dev

* market close emails

* order of operations

* template email

* sendMarketCloseEmail: handle unsubscribe

* remove debugging

* marketCloseEmails: every hour

* sendMarketCloseEmails: check undefined

* marketCloseEmails: "every hour" => "every 1 hours"

* Set up a read API using Vercel serverless functions (#49)

* Set up read API using Vercel serverless functions

Featuring:
/api/v0/markets
/api/v0/market/[contractId]
/api/v0/slug/[contractSlug]

* Include tags in API

* Tweaks. Remove filter for only binary contract

* Fix bet probability change for NO bets

* Put back isProd calculation

Co-authored-by: Austin Chen <akrolsmir@gmail.com>
Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
Co-authored-by: mantikoros <95266179+mantikoros@users.noreply.github.com>
2022-02-17 17:00:19 -06:00
mantikoros
800d9c6723 lower fees on sales 2022-02-13 20:24:11 -06:00
mantikoros
e2de257372
Simple dpm (#46)
* simpler payout mechanism; lower phantom ante to $1

* deductFees

* reduce phantom ante to 0.01

* PHANTOM_ANTE = 0.001

* payouts: pay back winner losses with fees

* simplify payouts
2022-02-12 19:19:17 -06:00
mantikoros
4294481b5b change fee structure 2022-02-03 16:59:59 -06:00
mantikoros
f06ca8305c
Resolve prob (#41)
* rename MKT to PROB; show resolved probability; move format utilities to common

* ProbabilitySelector

* resolve to PROB

* prob and mkt labels
2022-01-30 15:51:30 -06:00
mantikoros
a0be5b6394 calculateMoneyRatio 2022-01-15 00:11:27 -06:00
mantikoros
3805adff58 calculateMoneyRatio: use share value amount 2022-01-14 11:35:32 -06:00
mantikoros
6d536c4e16 change fee structure (paid only on winnings); calculateMoneyRatio 2022-01-14 11:11:01 -06:00
mantikoros
3cffccdd3f calculateMoneyRatio 2022-01-13 20:52:03 -06:00
mantikoros
bc454e89ba calculateMoneyRatio 2022-01-12 23:43:07 -06:00
mantikoros
9d5490cf9a
Switch to new dpm mechanism (#26)
* initial commit

* antes

* rename path, compute to contractPath, contractMetrics

* merge

* Include antes as bets; more calculations

* fees on estimated winnings

* mkt payout calculation

* contract: remove startPool, add phantomShares

* Merge branch 'main' into new-dpm

* dpm migration script

* my service account
2022-01-12 13:01:04 -06:00
mantikoros
9a834526c0 formatting 2022-01-10 17:52:03 -06:00
mantikoros
b97a65cf2c refactor data structures, calculations to common directory 2022-01-10 15:07:57 -06:00