Resolve multi market

This commit is contained in:
James Grugett 2022-02-15 21:37:34 -06:00
parent 0a178a7519
commit fc954b6b4b
7 changed files with 111 additions and 48 deletions

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@ -179,29 +179,24 @@ export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
}
function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const { resolutionProbability, totalShares, pool, phantomShares } = contract
if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY')
return calculateBinaryMktPayout(contract, bet)
const { totalShares, pool } = contract as any as Contract<'MULTI'>
const totalPool = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
const squareSum = _.sumBy(Object.values(totalShares), (shares) => shares ** 2)
const sharesSquareSum = _.sumBy(
Object.values(totalShares),
(shares) => shares ** 2
)
let weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(Object.keys(totalShares), (outcome) => {
const shareTotals = totalShares as { [outcome: string]: number }
// Avoid O(n^2) by reusing squareSum for prob.
const prob = shareTotals[outcome] ** 2 / squareSum
const shares =
shareTotals[outcome] -
(phantomShares ? phantomShares[outcome as 'YES' | 'NO'] : 0)
const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(Object.keys(totalShares), (outcome) => {
// Avoid O(n^2) by reusing sharesSquareSum for prob.
const shares = totalShares[outcome]
const prob = shares ** 2 / sharesSquareSum
return prob * shares
})
// Compute binary case if resolutionProbability provided.
if (resolutionProbability !== undefined) {
weightedShareTotal =
resolutionProbability * (totalShares.YES - phantomShares.YES) +
(1 - resolutionProbability) * (totalShares.NO - phantomShares.NO)
}
const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
const betP = getOutcomeProbability(totalShares, outcome)
@ -210,6 +205,26 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
return deductFees(amount, winnings)
}
function calculateBinaryMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const p =
contract.resolutionProbability !== undefined
? contract.resolutionProbability
: getProbability(contract.totalShares)
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
const weightedShareTotal =
p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.phantomShares.YES) +
(1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.phantomShares.NO)
const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
return deductFees(amount, winnings)
}
export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
if (contract.resolution)
return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)

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@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
const { pool } = contract
const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO
const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
@ -19,18 +19,17 @@ export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
}
export const getStandardPayouts = (
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
outcome: string,
contract: Contract,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome)
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool))
const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * pool
const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * poolTotal
const profit = winnings - amount
// profit can be negative if using phantom shares
@ -45,7 +44,7 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
'resolved',
outcome,
'pool',
pool,
poolTotal,
'profits',
profits,
'creator fee',
@ -114,5 +113,8 @@ export const getPayouts = (
return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability)
case 'CANCEL':
return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
default:
// Multi outcome.
return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
}
}

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@ -15,12 +15,23 @@ type market_resolved_template = {
url: string
}
const toDisplayResolution = (outcome: string, prob: number) => {
const display = {
YES: 'YES',
NO: 'NO',
CANCEL: 'N/A',
MKT: formatPercent(prob),
}[outcome]
return display === undefined ? `#${outcome}` : display
}
export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
userId: string,
payout: number,
creator: User,
contract: Contract,
resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' | string,
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
const privateUser = await getPrivateUser(userId)
@ -36,13 +47,7 @@ export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
const prob = resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
const toDisplayResolution = {
YES: 'YES',
NO: 'NO',
CANCEL: 'N/A',
MKT: formatPercent(prob),
}
const outcome = toDisplayResolution[resolution]
const outcome = toDisplayResolution(resolution, prob)
const subject = `Resolved ${outcome}: ${contract.question}`

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@ -25,10 +25,25 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
const { outcome, contractId, probabilityInt } = data
if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
if (!contractSnap.exists)
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
const { creatorId, outcomeType } = contract
if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
} else if (outcomeType === 'MULTI') {
if (isNaN(+outcome))
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
} else {
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract outcomeType' }
}
if (
outcomeType === 'BINARY' &&
probabilityInt !== undefined &&
(probabilityInt < 0 ||
probabilityInt > 100 ||
@ -36,19 +51,13 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
)
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid probability' }
const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
if (!contractSnap.exists)
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
if (contract.creatorId !== userId)
if (creatorId !== userId)
return { status: 'error', message: 'User not creator of contract' }
if (contract.resolution)
return { status: 'error', message: 'Contract already resolved' }
const creator = await getUser(contract.creatorId)
const creator = await getUser(creatorId)
if (!creator) return { status: 'error', message: 'Creator not found' }
const resolutionProbability =
@ -112,7 +121,7 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
userPayouts: { [userId: string]: number },
creator: User,
contract: Contract,
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' | string,
resolutionProbability?: number
) => {
const nonWinners = _.difference(

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@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import { Answer } from '../../common/answer'
import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
import { AmountInput } from './amount-input'
import { Col } from './layout/col'
import { createAnswer, placeBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
import { createAnswer, placeBet, resolveMarket } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
import { Row } from './layout/row'
import { Avatar } from './avatar'
import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
@ -391,6 +391,27 @@ function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
clearAnswerChoice,
} = props
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
const onResolve = async () => {
if (answer === undefined) return
setIsSubmitting(true)
const result = await resolveMarket({
outcome: answer,
contractId: contract.id,
}).then((r) => r.data as any)
console.log('resolved', `#${answer}`, 'result:', result)
if (result?.status !== 'success') {
setError(result?.error || 'Error resolving market')
}
setIsSubmitting(false)
}
const resolutionButtonClass =
resolveOption === 'CANCEL'
? 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500'
@ -426,13 +447,15 @@ function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
</button>
)}
<ResolveConfirmationButton
onResolve={() => {}}
isSubmitting={false}
onResolve={onResolve}
isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
openModelButtonClass={resolutionButtonClass}
submitButtonClass={resolutionButtonClass}
/>
</Row>
</Col>
{!!error && <div className="text-red-500">{error}</div>}
</Col>
)
}

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@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
}) {
useEffect(() => {
// warm up cloud function
resolveMarket({}).catch()
resolveMarket({} as any).catch()
}, [])
const { contract, className } = props
@ -35,6 +35,8 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
const resolve = async () => {
if (!outcome) return
setIsSubmitting(true)
const result = await resolveMarket({

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@ -28,7 +28,14 @@ export const createAnswer = cloudFunction<
}
>('createAnswer')
export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction('resolveMarket')
export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction<
{
outcome: string
contractId: string
probabilityInt?: number
},
{ status: 'error' | 'success'; message?: string }
>('resolveMarket')
export const sellBet = cloudFunction('sellBet')