Resolve multi market
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@ -179,29 +179,24 @@ export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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}
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function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const { resolutionProbability, totalShares, pool, phantomShares } = contract
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if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY')
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return calculateBinaryMktPayout(contract, bet)
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const { totalShares, pool } = contract as any as Contract<'MULTI'>
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const totalPool = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
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const squareSum = _.sumBy(Object.values(totalShares), (shares) => shares ** 2)
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const sharesSquareSum = _.sumBy(
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Object.values(totalShares),
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(shares) => shares ** 2
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)
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let weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(Object.keys(totalShares), (outcome) => {
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const shareTotals = totalShares as { [outcome: string]: number }
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// Avoid O(n^2) by reusing squareSum for prob.
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const prob = shareTotals[outcome] ** 2 / squareSum
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const shares =
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shareTotals[outcome] -
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(phantomShares ? phantomShares[outcome as 'YES' | 'NO'] : 0)
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const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(Object.keys(totalShares), (outcome) => {
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// Avoid O(n^2) by reusing sharesSquareSum for prob.
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const shares = totalShares[outcome]
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const prob = shares ** 2 / sharesSquareSum
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return prob * shares
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})
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// Compute binary case if resolutionProbability provided.
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if (resolutionProbability !== undefined) {
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weightedShareTotal =
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resolutionProbability * (totalShares.YES - phantomShares.YES) +
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(1 - resolutionProbability) * (totalShares.NO - phantomShares.NO)
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}
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const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
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const betP = getOutcomeProbability(totalShares, outcome)
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@ -210,6 +205,26 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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return deductFees(amount, winnings)
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}
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function calculateBinaryMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const p =
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contract.resolutionProbability !== undefined
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? contract.resolutionProbability
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: getProbability(contract.totalShares)
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const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const weightedShareTotal =
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p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.phantomShares.YES) +
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(1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.phantomShares.NO)
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const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
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const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
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const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
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return deductFees(amount, winnings)
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}
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export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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if (contract.resolution)
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return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
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@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
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export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
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const { pool } = contract
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const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO
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const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
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console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
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const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
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@ -19,18 +19,17 @@ export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
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}
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export const getStandardPayouts = (
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
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outcome: string,
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contract: Contract,
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bets: Bet[]
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) => {
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const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
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const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
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const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome)
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const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool))
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const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
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const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
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const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * pool
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const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * poolTotal
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const profit = winnings - amount
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// profit can be negative if using phantom shares
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@ -45,7 +44,7 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
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'resolved',
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outcome,
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'pool',
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pool,
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poolTotal,
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'profits',
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profits,
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'creator fee',
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@ -114,5 +113,8 @@ export const getPayouts = (
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return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability)
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case 'CANCEL':
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return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
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default:
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// Multi outcome.
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return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
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}
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}
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@ -15,12 +15,23 @@ type market_resolved_template = {
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url: string
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}
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const toDisplayResolution = (outcome: string, prob: number) => {
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const display = {
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YES: 'YES',
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NO: 'NO',
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CANCEL: 'N/A',
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MKT: formatPercent(prob),
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}[outcome]
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return display === undefined ? `#${outcome}` : display
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}
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export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
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userId: string,
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payout: number,
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creator: User,
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contract: Contract,
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resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
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resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' | string,
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resolutionProbability?: number
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) => {
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const privateUser = await getPrivateUser(userId)
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@ -36,13 +47,7 @@ export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
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const prob = resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
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const toDisplayResolution = {
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YES: 'YES',
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NO: 'NO',
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CANCEL: 'N/A',
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MKT: formatPercent(prob),
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}
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const outcome = toDisplayResolution[resolution]
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const outcome = toDisplayResolution(resolution, prob)
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const subject = `Resolved ${outcome}: ${contract.question}`
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@ -25,10 +25,25 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
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const { outcome, contractId, probabilityInt } = data
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if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
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const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
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const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
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if (!contractSnap.exists)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
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const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
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const { creatorId, outcomeType } = contract
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if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
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if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
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} else if (outcomeType === 'MULTI') {
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if (isNaN(+outcome))
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
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} else {
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract outcomeType' }
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}
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if (
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outcomeType === 'BINARY' &&
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probabilityInt !== undefined &&
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(probabilityInt < 0 ||
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probabilityInt > 100 ||
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@ -36,19 +51,13 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
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)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid probability' }
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const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
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const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
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if (!contractSnap.exists)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
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const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
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if (contract.creatorId !== userId)
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if (creatorId !== userId)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'User not creator of contract' }
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if (contract.resolution)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Contract already resolved' }
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const creator = await getUser(contract.creatorId)
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const creator = await getUser(creatorId)
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if (!creator) return { status: 'error', message: 'Creator not found' }
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const resolutionProbability =
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@ -112,7 +121,7 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
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userPayouts: { [userId: string]: number },
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creator: User,
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contract: Contract,
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' | string,
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resolutionProbability?: number
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) => {
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const nonWinners = _.difference(
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@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import { Answer } from '../../common/answer'
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import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
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import { AmountInput } from './amount-input'
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import { Col } from './layout/col'
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import { createAnswer, placeBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
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import { createAnswer, placeBet, resolveMarket } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
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import { Row } from './layout/row'
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import { Avatar } from './avatar'
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import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
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@ -391,6 +391,27 @@ function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
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clearAnswerChoice,
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} = props
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const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
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const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
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const onResolve = async () => {
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if (answer === undefined) return
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setIsSubmitting(true)
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const result = await resolveMarket({
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outcome: answer,
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contractId: contract.id,
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}).then((r) => r.data as any)
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console.log('resolved', `#${answer}`, 'result:', result)
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if (result?.status !== 'success') {
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setError(result?.error || 'Error resolving market')
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}
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setIsSubmitting(false)
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}
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const resolutionButtonClass =
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resolveOption === 'CANCEL'
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? 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500'
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@ -426,13 +447,15 @@ function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
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</button>
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)}
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<ResolveConfirmationButton
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onResolve={() => {}}
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isSubmitting={false}
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onResolve={onResolve}
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isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
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openModelButtonClass={resolutionButtonClass}
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submitButtonClass={resolutionButtonClass}
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/>
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</Row>
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</Col>
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{!!error && <div className="text-red-500">{error}</div>}
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</Col>
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)
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}
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@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
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}) {
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useEffect(() => {
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// warm up cloud function
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resolveMarket({}).catch()
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resolveMarket({} as any).catch()
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}, [])
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const { contract, className } = props
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@ -35,6 +35,8 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
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const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
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const resolve = async () => {
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if (!outcome) return
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setIsSubmitting(true)
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const result = await resolveMarket({
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@ -28,7 +28,14 @@ export const createAnswer = cloudFunction<
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}
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>('createAnswer')
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export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction('resolveMarket')
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export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction<
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{
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outcome: string
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contractId: string
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probabilityInt?: number
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},
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{ status: 'error' | 'success'; message?: string }
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>('resolveMarket')
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export const sellBet = cloudFunction('sellBet')
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