Resolve multi market

common/calculate.ts

@@ -179,29 +179,24 @@ export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
 }
 
 function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  const { resolutionProbability, totalShares, pool, phantomShares } = contract
+  if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY')
+    return calculateBinaryMktPayout(contract, bet)
+
+  const { totalShares, pool } = contract as any as Contract<'MULTI'>
 
   const totalPool = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
-  const squareSum = _.sumBy(Object.values(totalShares), (shares) => shares ** 2)
+  const sharesSquareSum = _.sumBy(
+    Object.values(totalShares),
+    (shares) => shares ** 2
+  )
 
-  let weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(Object.keys(totalShares), (outcome) => {
+  const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(Object.keys(totalShares), (outcome) => {
-    const shareTotals = totalShares as { [outcome: string]: number }
+    // Avoid O(n^2) by reusing sharesSquareSum for prob.
-
+    const shares = totalShares[outcome]
-    // Avoid O(n^2) by reusing squareSum for prob.
+    const prob = shares ** 2 / sharesSquareSum
-    const prob = shareTotals[outcome] ** 2 / squareSum
-    const shares =
-      shareTotals[outcome] -
-      (phantomShares ? phantomShares[outcome as 'YES' | 'NO'] : 0)
     return prob * shares
   })
 
-  // Compute binary case if resolutionProbability provided.
-  if (resolutionProbability !== undefined) {
-    weightedShareTotal =
-      resolutionProbability * (totalShares.YES - phantomShares.YES) +
-      (1 - resolutionProbability) * (totalShares.NO - phantomShares.NO)
-  }
-
   const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
 
   const betP = getOutcomeProbability(totalShares, outcome)
@@ -210,6 +205,26 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   return deductFees(amount, winnings)
 }
 
+function calculateBinaryMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const p =
+    contract.resolutionProbability !== undefined
+      ? contract.resolutionProbability
+      : getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+
+  const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
+
+  const weightedShareTotal =
+    p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.phantomShares.YES) +
+    (1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.phantomShares.NO)
+
+  const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
+
+  const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
+  const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
+
+  return deductFees(amount, winnings)
+}
+
 export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   if (contract.resolution)
     return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)

common/payouts.ts

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
 
 export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
   const { pool } = contract
-  const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO
+  const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(pool))
   console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
 
   const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
@@ -19,18 +19,17 @@ export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
 }
 
 export const getStandardPayouts = (
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
+  outcome: string,
   contract: Contract,
   bets: Bet[]
 ) => {
-  const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
+  const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome)
-  const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
 
-  const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
+  const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool))
   const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
 
   const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
-    const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * pool
+    const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * poolTotal
     const profit = winnings - amount
 
     // profit can be negative if using phantom shares
@@ -45,7 +44,7 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
     'resolved',
     outcome,
     'pool',
-    pool,
+    poolTotal,
     'profits',
     profits,
     'creator fee',
@@ -114,5 +113,8 @@ export const getPayouts = (
       return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability)
     case 'CANCEL':
       return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
+    default:
+      // Multi outcome.
+      return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
   }
 }

functions/src/emails.ts

@@ -15,12 +15,23 @@ type market_resolved_template = {
   url: string
 }
 
+const toDisplayResolution = (outcome: string, prob: number) => {
+  const display = {
+    YES: 'YES',
+    NO: 'NO',
+    CANCEL: 'N/A',
+    MKT: formatPercent(prob),
+  }[outcome]
+
+  return display === undefined ? `#${outcome}` : display
+}
+
 export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
   userId: string,
   payout: number,
   creator: User,
   contract: Contract,
-  resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
+  resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' | string,
   resolutionProbability?: number
 ) => {
   const privateUser = await getPrivateUser(userId)
@@ -36,13 +47,7 @@ export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
 
   const prob = resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
 
-  const toDisplayResolution = {
+  const outcome = toDisplayResolution(resolution, prob)
-    YES: 'YES',
-    NO: 'NO',
-    CANCEL: 'N/A',
-    MKT: formatPercent(prob),
-  }
-  const outcome = toDisplayResolution[resolution]
 
   const subject = `Resolved ${outcome}: ${contract.question}`
 

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -25,10 +25,25 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
 
       const { outcome, contractId, probabilityInt } = data
 
-      if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
+      const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
-        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
+      const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
+      if (!contractSnap.exists)
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
+      const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
+      const { creatorId, outcomeType } = contract
+
+      if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
+        if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
+          return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
+      } else if (outcomeType === 'MULTI') {
+        if (isNaN(+outcome))
+          return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
+      } else {
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract outcomeType' }
+      }
 
       if (
+        outcomeType === 'BINARY' &&
         probabilityInt !== undefined &&
         (probabilityInt < 0 ||
           probabilityInt > 100 ||
@@ -36,19 +51,13 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
       )
         return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid probability' }
 
-      const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
+      if (creatorId !== userId)
-      const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
-      if (!contractSnap.exists)
-        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
-      const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
-
-      if (contract.creatorId !== userId)
         return { status: 'error', message: 'User not creator of contract' }
 
       if (contract.resolution)
         return { status: 'error', message: 'Contract already resolved' }
 
-      const creator = await getUser(contract.creatorId)
+      const creator = await getUser(creatorId)
       if (!creator) return { status: 'error', message: 'Creator not found' }
 
       const resolutionProbability =
@@ -112,7 +121,7 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
   userPayouts: { [userId: string]: number },
   creator: User,
   contract: Contract,
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' | string,
   resolutionProbability?: number
 ) => {
   const nonWinners = _.difference(

web/components/answers-panel.tsx

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import { Answer } from '../../common/answer'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { AmountInput } from './amount-input'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
-import { createAnswer, placeBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
+import { createAnswer, placeBet, resolveMarket } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { Avatar } from './avatar'
 import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
@@ -391,6 +391,27 @@ function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
     clearAnswerChoice,
   } = props
 
+  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
+
+  const onResolve = async () => {
+    if (answer === undefined) return
+
+    setIsSubmitting(true)
+
+    const result = await resolveMarket({
+      outcome: answer,
+      contractId: contract.id,
+    }).then((r) => r.data as any)
+
+    console.log('resolved', `#${answer}`, 'result:', result)
+
+    if (result?.status !== 'success') {
+      setError(result?.error || 'Error resolving market')
+    }
+    setIsSubmitting(false)
+  }
+
   const resolutionButtonClass =
     resolveOption === 'CANCEL'
       ? 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500'
@@ -426,13 +447,15 @@ function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
             </button>
           )}
           <ResolveConfirmationButton
-            onResolve={() => {}}
+            onResolve={onResolve}
-            isSubmitting={false}
+            isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
             openModelButtonClass={resolutionButtonClass}
             submitButtonClass={resolutionButtonClass}
           />
         </Row>
       </Col>
+
+      {!!error && <div className="text-red-500">{error}</div>}
     </Col>
   )
 }

web/components/resolution-panel.tsx

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
 }) {
   useEffect(() => {
     // warm up cloud function
-    resolveMarket({}).catch()
+    resolveMarket({} as any).catch()
   }, [])
 
   const { contract, className } = props
@@ -35,6 +35,8 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
 
   const resolve = async () => {
+    if (!outcome) return
+
     setIsSubmitting(true)
 
     const result = await resolveMarket({

web/lib/firebase/api-call.ts

@@ -28,7 +28,14 @@ export const createAnswer = cloudFunction<
   }
 >('createAnswer')
 
-export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction('resolveMarket')
+export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction<
+  {
+    outcome: string
+    contractId: string
+    probabilityInt?: number
+  },
+  { status: 'error' | 'success'; message?: string }
+>('resolveMarket')
 
 export const sellBet = cloudFunction('sellBet')