Sell bets (#12)
* sell bet * dev mode * single-pot no-refund payoff; bet selling * Increase default fetch size 25 -> 99 * Fix about page numbering * Don't flash no markets when loading on tag page. * Change Title to use body font * Make a bunch of predictions at once (#9) * Set up a page to make bulk predictions * Integrate preview into the same card * List created predictions * Make changes per James's comments * Increase the starting balance (#11) * Remove references to paying for our Mantic Dollars * Update simulator to use new calculations * Change simulator random to be evenly random again * Sell bet UI * Migrate contracts and bets script * Add comment to script * bets => trades; exclude sold bets * change sale formula * Change current value to uncapped sell value. * Disable sell button while selling * Update some 'bet' to 'trade' Co-authored-by: Austin Chen <akrolsmir@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: jahooma <jahooma@gmail.com>
This commit is contained in:
mantikoros
GitHub
parent
856a2453a1
commit
f48ae0170b
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@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
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{
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"projects": {
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"default": "mantic-markets"
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"default": "mantic-markets",
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"prod": "mantic-markets",
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"dev": "dev-mantic-markets"
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}
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}
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}
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@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
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"name": "functions",
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"scripts": {
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"build": "tsc",
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"watch": "tsc -w",
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"serve": "yarn build && firebase emulators:start --only functions",
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"shell": "yarn build && firebase functions:shell",
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"start": "yarn shell",
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@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
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admin.initializeApp()
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export * from './keep-awake'
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// export * from './keep-awake'
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export * from './place-bet'
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export * from './resolve-market'
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export * from './sell-bet'
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@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ export const placeBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
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.collection(`contracts/${contractId}/bets`)
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.doc()
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const { newBet, newPool, newDpmWeights, newBalance } = getNewBetInfo(
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const { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newBalance } = getNewBetInfo(
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user,
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outcome,
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amount,
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@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ export const placeBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
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transaction.create(newBetDoc, newBet)
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transaction.update(contractDoc, {
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pool: newPool,
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dpmWeights: newDpmWeights,
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totalShares: newTotalShares,
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})
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transaction.update(userDoc, { balance: newBalance })
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@ -79,29 +79,19 @@ const getNewBetInfo = (
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? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
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: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount }
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const dpmWeight =
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const shares =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
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: (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
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? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
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: amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
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const { YES: yesWeight, NO: noWeight } = contract.dpmWeights || {
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YES: 0,
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NO: 0,
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} // only nesc for old contracts
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
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const newDpmWeights =
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const newTotalShares =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? { YES: yesWeight + dpmWeight, NO: noWeight }
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: { YES: yesWeight, NO: noWeight + dpmWeight }
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? { YES: yesShares + shares, NO: noShares }
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: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares + shares }
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const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
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const probAverage =
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(amount +
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noPool * Math.atan(yesPool / noPool) -
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noPool * Math.atan((amount + yesPool) / noPool)) /
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amount
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const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
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const newBet: Bet = {
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@ -109,15 +99,14 @@ const getNewBetInfo = (
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userId: user.id,
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contractId: contract.id,
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amount,
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dpmWeight,
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shares,
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outcome,
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probBefore,
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probAverage,
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probAfter,
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createdTime: Date.now(),
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}
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const newBalance = user.balance - amount
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return { newBet, newPool, newDpmWeights, newBalance }
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return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newBalance }
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}
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@ -78,22 +78,27 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
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const firestore = admin.firestore()
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const getPayouts = (outcome: string, contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
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const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
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const openBets = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
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const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(
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openBets,
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(bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES'
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)
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const [pool, winningBets] =
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
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const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
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const [totalShares, winningBets] =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? [contract.pool.NO - contract.startPool.NO, yesBets]
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: [contract.pool.YES - contract.startPool.YES, noBets]
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? [contract.totalShares.YES, yesBets]
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: [contract.totalShares.NO, noBets]
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const finalPool = (1 - PLATFORM_FEE - CREATOR_FEE) * pool
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * pool
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const finalPool = (1 - PLATFORM_FEE - CREATOR_FEE) * truePool
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool
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console.log('final pool:', finalPool, 'creator fee:', creatorPayout)
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const sumWeights = _.sumBy(winningBets, (bet) => bet.dpmWeight)
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const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout: bet.amount + (bet.dpmWeight / sumWeights) * finalPool,
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payout: (bet.shares / totalShares) * finalPool,
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}))
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return winnerPayouts.concat([
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58
functions/src/scripts/migrate-contract.ts
Normal file
58
functions/src/scripts/migrate-contract.ts
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
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import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
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import * as _ from 'lodash'
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import { Bet } from '../types/bet'
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import { Contract } from '../types/contract'
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type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
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// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
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// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
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const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
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admin.initializeApp({
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credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
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})
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const firestore = admin.firestore()
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async function migrateBet(contractRef: DocRef, bet: Bet) {
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const { dpmWeight, amount, id } = bet as Bet & { dpmWeight: number }
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const shares = dpmWeight + amount
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await contractRef.collection('bets').doc(id).update({ shares })
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}
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async function migrateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {
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const bets = await contractRef
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.collection('bets')
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.get()
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.then((snap) => snap.docs.map((bet) => bet.data() as Bet))
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const totalShares = {
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YES: _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'YES' ? bet.shares : 0)),
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NO: _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'NO' ? bet.shares : 0)),
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}
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await contractRef.update({ totalShares })
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}
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async function migrateContracts() {
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console.log('Migrating contracts')
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const snapshot = await firestore.collection('contracts').get()
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const contracts = snapshot.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Contract)
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console.log('Loaded contracts', contracts.length)
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for (const contract of contracts) {
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const contractRef = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contract.id}`)
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const betsSnapshot = await contractRef.collection('bets').get()
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const bets = betsSnapshot.docs.map((bet) => bet.data() as Bet)
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console.log('contract', contract.question, 'bets', bets.length)
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for (const bet of bets) await migrateBet(contractRef, bet)
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await migrateContract(contractRef, contract)
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}
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}
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if (require.main === module) migrateContracts().then(() => process.exit())
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162
functions/src/sell-bet.ts
Normal file
162
functions/src/sell-bet.ts
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
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import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
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import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
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import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from './resolve-market'
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import { Bet } from './types/bet'
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import { Contract } from './types/contract'
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import { User } from './types/user'
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export const sellBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
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async (
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data: {
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contractId: string
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betId: string
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},
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context
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) => {
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const userId = context?.auth?.uid
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if (!userId) return { status: 'error', message: 'Not authorized' }
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const { contractId, betId } = data
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// run as transaction to prevent race conditions
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return await firestore.runTransaction(async (transaction) => {
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const userDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${userId}`)
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const userSnap = await transaction.get(userDoc)
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if (!userSnap.exists)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'User not found' }
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const user = userSnap.data() as User
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const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
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const contractSnap = await transaction.get(contractDoc)
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if (!contractSnap.exists)
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return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
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const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
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const betDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}/bets/${betId}`)
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const betSnap = await transaction.get(betDoc)
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if (!betSnap.exists) return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid bet' }
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const bet = betSnap.data() as Bet
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if (bet.isSold) return { status: 'error', message: 'Bet already sold' }
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const newBetDoc = firestore
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.collection(`contracts/${contractId}/bets`)
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.doc()
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const { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newBalance, creatorFee } =
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getSellBetInfo(user, bet, contract, newBetDoc.id)
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const creatorDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${contract.creatorId}`)
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const creatorSnap = await transaction.get(creatorDoc)
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if (creatorSnap.exists) {
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const creator = creatorSnap.data() as User
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const creatorNewBalance = creator.balance + creatorFee
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transaction.update(creatorDoc, { balance: creatorNewBalance })
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}
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transaction.update(betDoc, { isSold: true })
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transaction.create(newBetDoc, newBet)
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transaction.update(contractDoc, {
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pool: newPool,
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totalShares: newTotalShares,
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})
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transaction.update(userDoc, { balance: newBalance })
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return { status: 'success' }
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})
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}
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)
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const firestore = admin.firestore()
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const getSellBetInfo = (
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user: User,
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bet: Bet,
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contract: Contract,
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newBetId: string
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) => {
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const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
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const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
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const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
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const shareValue =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
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(n ** 2 +
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s * y +
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y ** 2 -
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Math.sqrt(
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n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
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)) /
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(2 * y)
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: (y ** 2 +
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s * n +
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n ** 2 -
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Math.sqrt(
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y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
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)) /
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(2 * n)
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|
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const startPool = yesStart + noStart
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const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
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const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
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const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
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const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
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const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
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const newPool =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? { YES: yesPool - adjShareValue, NO: noPool }
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: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool - adjShareValue }
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const newTotalShares =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? { YES: yesShares - shares, NO: noShares }
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: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares - shares }
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const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
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const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
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const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue
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console.log(
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'SELL M$',
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amount,
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outcome,
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'for M$',
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saleAmount,
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'M$/share:',
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f,
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'creator fee: M$',
|
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creatorFee
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)
|
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|
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const newBet: Bet = {
|
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id: newBetId,
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userId: user.id,
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contractId: contract.id,
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amount: -adjShareValue,
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shares: -shares,
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outcome,
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probBefore,
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probAfter,
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createdTime: Date.now(),
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sale: {
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amount: saleAmount,
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betId,
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},
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}
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|
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const newBalance = user.balance + saleAmount
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|
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return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newBalance, creatorFee }
|
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}
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|
|
@ -2,11 +2,20 @@ export type Bet = {
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id: string
|
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userId: string
|
||||
contractId: string
|
||||
amount: number // Amount of bet
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' // Chosen outcome
|
||||
createdTime: number
|
||||
|
||||
amount: number // bet size; negative if SELL bet
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
|
||||
shares: number // dynamic parimutuel pool weight; negative if SELL bet
|
||||
|
||||
probBefore: number
|
||||
probAverage: number
|
||||
probAfter: number
|
||||
dpmWeight: number // Dynamic Parimutuel weight
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
sale?: {
|
||||
amount: number // amount user makes from sale
|
||||
betId: string // id of bet being sold
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
isSold?: boolean // true if this BUY bet has been sold
|
||||
|
||||
createdTime: number
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ export type Contract = {
|
|||
|
||||
startPool: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
pool: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
dpmWeights: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
|
||||
createdTime: number // Milliseconds since epoch
|
||||
lastUpdatedTime: number // If the question or description was changed
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -12,9 +12,9 @@ import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from '../lib/util/format'
|
|||
import { Title } from './title'
|
||||
import {
|
||||
getProbability,
|
||||
getDpmWeight,
|
||||
calculateShares,
|
||||
getProbabilityAfterBet,
|
||||
} from '../lib/calculation/contract'
|
||||
} from '../lib/calculate'
|
||||
import { firebaseLogin } from '../lib/firebase/users'
|
||||
|
||||
export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
|
||||
|
|
@ -84,9 +84,9 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
|
|||
betChoice,
|
||||
betAmount ?? 0
|
||||
)
|
||||
const dpmWeight = getDpmWeight(contract.pool, betAmount ?? 0, betChoice)
|
||||
const shares = calculateShares(contract.pool, betAmount ?? 0, betChoice)
|
||||
|
||||
const estimatedWinnings = Math.floor((betAmount ?? 0) + dpmWeight)
|
||||
const estimatedWinnings = Math.floor(shares)
|
||||
const estimatedReturn = betAmount
|
||||
? (estimatedWinnings - betAmount) / betAmount
|
||||
: 0
|
||||
|
|
@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
|
|||
<Col
|
||||
className={clsx('bg-gray-100 shadow-xl px-8 py-6 rounded-md', className)}
|
||||
>
|
||||
<Title className="!mt-0 whitespace-nowrap" text="Place a bet" />
|
||||
<Title className="!mt-0 whitespace-nowrap" text="Place a trade" />
|
||||
|
||||
<div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">Outcome</div>
|
||||
<YesNoSelector
|
||||
|
|
@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
|
|||
onSelect={(choice) => onBetChoice(choice)}
|
||||
/>
|
||||
|
||||
<div className="mt-3 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">Bet amount</div>
|
||||
<div className="mt-3 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">Amount</div>
|
||||
<Col className="my-2">
|
||||
<label className="input-group">
|
||||
<span className="text-sm bg-gray-200">M$</span>
|
||||
|
|
@ -168,18 +168,18 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
|
|||
)}
|
||||
onClick={betDisabled ? undefined : submitBet}
|
||||
>
|
||||
{isSubmitting ? 'Submitting...' : 'Place bet'}
|
||||
{isSubmitting ? 'Submitting...' : 'Submit trade'}
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
) : (
|
||||
<button
|
||||
className="btn mt-4 border-none normal-case text-lg font-medium px-10 bg-gradient-to-r from-teal-500 to-green-500 hover:from-teal-600 hover:to-green-600"
|
||||
onClick={firebaseLogin}
|
||||
>
|
||||
Sign in to bet!
|
||||
Sign in to trade!
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
)}
|
||||
|
||||
{wasSubmitted && <div className="mt-4">Bet submitted!</div>}
|
||||
{wasSubmitted && <div className="mt-4">Trade submitted!</div>}
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -13,10 +13,13 @@ import { Row } from './layout/row'
|
|||
import { UserLink } from './user-page'
|
||||
import {
|
||||
calculatePayout,
|
||||
calculateSaleAmount,
|
||||
currentValue,
|
||||
resolvedPayout,
|
||||
} from '../lib/calculation/contract'
|
||||
} from '../lib/calculate'
|
||||
import clsx from 'clsx'
|
||||
import { cloudFunction } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
|
||||
import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
|
||||
|
||||
export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
|
||||
const { user } = props
|
||||
|
|
@ -65,19 +68,26 @@ export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
|
|||
contracts,
|
||||
(contract) => contract.isResolved
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
const currentBets = _.sumBy(unresolved, (contract) =>
|
||||
_.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => bet.amount)
|
||||
_.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => {
|
||||
if (bet.isSold || bet.sale) return 0
|
||||
return bet.amount
|
||||
})
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
const currentBetsValue = _.sumBy(unresolved, (contract) =>
|
||||
_.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => currentValue(contract, bet))
|
||||
_.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => {
|
||||
if (bet.isSold || bet.sale) return 0
|
||||
return currentValue(contract, bet)
|
||||
})
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Col className="mt-6 gap-6">
|
||||
<Row className="gap-8">
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Active bets</div>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Currently invested</div>
|
||||
<div>{formatMoney(currentBets)}</div>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
|
|
@ -173,16 +183,17 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
|
|||
const { bets, contract, className } = props
|
||||
const { resolution } = contract
|
||||
|
||||
const betsTotal = _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => bet.amount)
|
||||
const excludeSales = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
|
||||
const betsTotal = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => bet.amount)
|
||||
|
||||
const betsPayout = resolution
|
||||
? _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => resolvedPayout(contract, bet))
|
||||
: 0
|
||||
|
||||
const yesWinnings = _.sumBy(bets, (bet) =>
|
||||
const yesWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
|
||||
calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
|
||||
)
|
||||
const noWinnings = _.sumBy(bets, (bet) =>
|
||||
const noWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
|
||||
calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -190,7 +201,7 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
|
|||
<Row className={clsx('gap-4 sm:gap-6', className)}>
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||||
Total bets
|
||||
Amount invested
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(betsTotal)}</div>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
|
|
@ -228,6 +239,11 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
|
|||
}) {
|
||||
const { contract, bets, className } = props
|
||||
|
||||
const [sales, buys] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.sale)
|
||||
const salesDict = _.fromPairs(
|
||||
sales.map((sale) => [sale.sale?.betId ?? '', sale])
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
const { isResolved } = contract
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
|
|
@ -237,15 +253,21 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
|
|||
<tr className="p-2">
|
||||
<th>Date</th>
|
||||
<th>Outcome</th>
|
||||
<th>Bet</th>
|
||||
<th>Amount</th>
|
||||
<th>Probability</th>
|
||||
{!isResolved && <th>Est. max payout</th>}
|
||||
<th>{isResolved ? <>Payout</> : <>Current value</>}</th>
|
||||
<th></th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
{bets.map((bet) => (
|
||||
<BetRow key={bet.id} bet={bet} contract={contract} />
|
||||
{buys.map((bet) => (
|
||||
<BetRow
|
||||
key={bet.id}
|
||||
bet={bet}
|
||||
sale={salesDict[bet.id]}
|
||||
contract={contract}
|
||||
/>
|
||||
))}
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
|
|
@ -253,14 +275,22 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
|
|||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
|
||||
const { bet, contract } = props
|
||||
const { amount, outcome, createdTime, probBefore, probAfter, dpmWeight } = bet
|
||||
function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract; sale?: Bet }) {
|
||||
const { bet, sale, contract } = props
|
||||
const {
|
||||
amount,
|
||||
outcome,
|
||||
createdTime,
|
||||
probBefore,
|
||||
probAfter,
|
||||
shares,
|
||||
isSold,
|
||||
} = bet
|
||||
const { isResolved } = contract
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, H:mma')}</td>
|
||||
<td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
|
||||
<td>
|
||||
<OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} />
|
||||
</td>
|
||||
|
|
@ -268,18 +298,63 @@ function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
|
|||
<td>
|
||||
{formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
|
||||
</td>
|
||||
{!isResolved && <td>{formatMoney(amount + dpmWeight)}</td>}
|
||||
{!isResolved && <td>{formatMoney(shares)}</td>}
|
||||
<td>
|
||||
{formatMoney(
|
||||
isResolved
|
||||
? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
|
||||
: currentValue(contract, bet)
|
||||
)}
|
||||
{bet.isSold
|
||||
? 'N/A'
|
||||
: formatMoney(
|
||||
isResolved
|
||||
? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
|
||||
: bet.sale
|
||||
? bet.sale.amount ?? 0
|
||||
: currentValue(contract, bet)
|
||||
)}
|
||||
</td>
|
||||
|
||||
{sale ? (
|
||||
<td>SOLD for {formatMoney(Math.abs(sale.amount))}</td>
|
||||
) : (
|
||||
!isResolved &&
|
||||
!isSold && (
|
||||
<td className="text-neutral">
|
||||
<SellButton contract={contract} bet={bet} />
|
||||
</td>
|
||||
)
|
||||
)}
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const sellBet = cloudFunction('sellBet')
|
||||
|
||||
function SellButton(props: { contract: Contract; bet: Bet }) {
|
||||
const { contract, bet } = props
|
||||
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<ConfirmationButton
|
||||
id={`sell-${bet.id}`}
|
||||
openModelBtn={{
|
||||
className: clsx('btn-sm', isSubmitting && 'btn-disabled loading'),
|
||||
label: 'Sell',
|
||||
}}
|
||||
submitBtn={{ className: 'btn-primary' }}
|
||||
onSubmit={async () => {
|
||||
setIsSubmitting(true)
|
||||
await sellBet({ contractId: contract.id, betId: bet.id })
|
||||
setIsSubmitting(false)
|
||||
}}
|
||||
>
|
||||
<div className="text-2xl mb-4">Sell</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
Do you want to sell your {formatMoney(bet.amount)} position on{' '}
|
||||
<OutcomeLabel outcome={bet.outcome} /> for{' '}
|
||||
{formatMoney(calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet))}?
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</ConfirmationButton>
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function OutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' }) {
|
||||
const { outcome } = props
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
|
|||
}) => {
|
||||
const { contract, className } = props
|
||||
const { resolution, creatorId } = contract
|
||||
const { probPercent, volume } = compute(contract)
|
||||
const { probPercent, truePool } = compute(contract)
|
||||
|
||||
const user = useUser()
|
||||
const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
|
||||
|
|
@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
|
|||
<ContractDescription contract={contract} isCreator={isCreator} />
|
||||
|
||||
{/* Show a delete button for contracts without any trading */}
|
||||
{isCreator && volume === 0 && (
|
||||
{isCreator && truePool === 0 && (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
<Spacer h={8} />
|
||||
<button
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ import { Linkify } from './linkify'
|
|||
|
||||
export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
|
||||
const { contract } = props
|
||||
const { volume, createdDate, resolvedDate } = compute(contract)
|
||||
const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = compute(contract)
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Row className="flex-wrap text-sm text-gray-500">
|
||||
|
|
@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
|
|||
{resolvedDate ? `${createdDate} - ${resolvedDate}` : createdDate}
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div className="mx-2">•</div>
|
||||
<div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(volume)} volume</div>
|
||||
<div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(truePool)} pool</div>
|
||||
</Row>
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -110,14 +110,14 @@ function ContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
|
|||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
type Sort = 'createdTime' | 'volume' | 'resolved' | 'all'
|
||||
type Sort = 'createdTime' | 'pool' | 'resolved' | 'all'
|
||||
export function SearchableGrid(props: {
|
||||
contracts: Contract[]
|
||||
defaultSort?: Sort
|
||||
}) {
|
||||
const { contracts, defaultSort } = props
|
||||
const [query, setQuery] = useState('')
|
||||
const [sort, setSort] = useState(defaultSort || 'volume')
|
||||
const [sort, setSort] = useState(defaultSort || 'pool')
|
||||
|
||||
function check(corpus: String) {
|
||||
return corpus.toLowerCase().includes(query.toLowerCase())
|
||||
|
|
@ -132,8 +132,8 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
|
|||
|
||||
if (sort === 'createdTime' || sort === 'resolved' || sort === 'all') {
|
||||
matches.sort((a, b) => b.createdTime - a.createdTime)
|
||||
} else if (sort === 'volume') {
|
||||
matches.sort((a, b) => compute(b).volume - compute(a).volume)
|
||||
} else if (sort === 'pool') {
|
||||
matches.sort((a, b) => compute(b).truePool - compute(a).truePool)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (sort !== 'all') {
|
||||
|
|
@ -159,7 +159,7 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
|
|||
value={sort}
|
||||
onChange={(e) => setSort(e.target.value as Sort)}
|
||||
>
|
||||
<option value="volume">Most traded</option>
|
||||
<option value="pool">Most traded</option>
|
||||
<option value="createdTime">Newest first</option>
|
||||
<option value="resolved">Resolved</option>
|
||||
<option value="all">All markets</option>
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -41,8 +41,8 @@ function getNavigationOptions(user: User, options: { mobile: boolean }) {
|
|||
]
|
||||
: []),
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'Your bets',
|
||||
href: '/bets',
|
||||
name: 'Your trades',
|
||||
href: '/trades',
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'Your markets',
|
||||
|
|
@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ function ProfileSummary(props: { user: User }) {
|
|||
<div className="rounded-full w-10 h-10 mr-4">
|
||||
<Image src={user.avatarUrl} width={40} height={40} />
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div className="truncate" style={{ maxWidth: 175 }}>
|
||||
<div className="truncate text-left" style={{ maxWidth: 175 }}>
|
||||
{user.name}
|
||||
<div className="text-gray-700 text-sm">{formatMoney(user.balance)}</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
134
web/lib/calculate.ts
Normal file
134
web/lib/calculate.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
|
|||
import { Bet } from './firebase/bets'
|
||||
import { Contract } from './firebase/contracts'
|
||||
|
||||
const fees = 0.02
|
||||
|
||||
export function getProbability(pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) {
|
||||
const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
|
||||
const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
|
||||
const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
|
||||
return numerator / denominator
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
|
||||
pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
|
||||
bet: number
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const [YES, NO] = [
|
||||
pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
|
||||
pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
|
||||
]
|
||||
return getProbability({ YES, NO })
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function calculateShares(
|
||||
pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
|
||||
bet: number,
|
||||
betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
|
||||
|
||||
return betChoice === 'YES'
|
||||
? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool)
|
||||
: bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function calculatePayout(
|
||||
contract: Contract,
|
||||
bet: Bet,
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL'
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
|
||||
|
||||
if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
|
||||
if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
|
||||
|
||||
const { totalShares } = contract
|
||||
|
||||
if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
|
||||
|
||||
const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
|
||||
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
|
||||
|
||||
return (1 - fees) * (shares / totalShares[outcome]) * pool
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
|
||||
if (contract.resolution)
|
||||
return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
|
||||
throw new Error('Contract was not resolved')
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
|
||||
// const prob = getProbability(contract.pool)
|
||||
// const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
|
||||
// const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
|
||||
|
||||
// return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
|
||||
|
||||
const { shares, outcome } = bet
|
||||
|
||||
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
|
||||
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
|
||||
|
||||
const shareValue =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
|
||||
(n ** 2 +
|
||||
s * y +
|
||||
y ** 2 -
|
||||
Math.sqrt(
|
||||
n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
|
||||
)) /
|
||||
(2 * y)
|
||||
: (y ** 2 +
|
||||
s * n +
|
||||
n ** 2 -
|
||||
Math.sqrt(
|
||||
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
|
||||
)) /
|
||||
(2 * n)
|
||||
|
||||
return (1 - fees) * shareValue
|
||||
}
|
||||
export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
|
||||
const { shares, outcome } = bet
|
||||
|
||||
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
|
||||
const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
|
||||
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
|
||||
|
||||
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
|
||||
|
||||
const shareValue =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
|
||||
(n ** 2 +
|
||||
s * y +
|
||||
y ** 2 -
|
||||
Math.sqrt(
|
||||
n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
|
||||
)) /
|
||||
(2 * y)
|
||||
: (y ** 2 +
|
||||
s * n +
|
||||
n ** 2 -
|
||||
Math.sqrt(
|
||||
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
|
||||
)) /
|
||||
(2 * n)
|
||||
|
||||
const startPool = yesStart + noStart
|
||||
const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
|
||||
|
||||
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
|
||||
const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
|
||||
|
||||
const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
|
||||
|
||||
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
|
||||
|
||||
const saleAmount = (1 - fees) * adjShareValue
|
||||
return saleAmount
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,72 +0,0 @@
|
|||
import { Bet } from '../firebase/bets'
|
||||
import { Contract } from '../firebase/contracts'
|
||||
|
||||
const fees = 0.02
|
||||
|
||||
export function getProbability(pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) {
|
||||
const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
|
||||
const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
|
||||
const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
|
||||
return numerator / denominator
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
|
||||
pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
|
||||
bet: number
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const [YES, NO] = [
|
||||
pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
|
||||
pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
|
||||
]
|
||||
return getProbability({ YES, NO })
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function getDpmWeight(
|
||||
pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
|
||||
bet: number,
|
||||
betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
|
||||
|
||||
return betChoice === 'YES'
|
||||
? (bet * Math.pow(noPool, 2)) / (Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + bet * yesPool)
|
||||
: (bet * Math.pow(yesPool, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPool, 2) + bet * noPool)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function calculatePayout(
|
||||
contract: Contract,
|
||||
bet: Bet,
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL'
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, dpmWeight } = bet
|
||||
|
||||
if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
|
||||
if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
|
||||
|
||||
let { dpmWeights, pool, startPool } = contract
|
||||
|
||||
// Fake data if not set.
|
||||
if (!dpmWeights) dpmWeights = { YES: 100, NO: 100 }
|
||||
|
||||
// Fake data if not set.
|
||||
if (!pool) pool = { YES: 100, NO: 100 }
|
||||
|
||||
const otherOutcome = outcome === 'YES' ? 'NO' : 'YES'
|
||||
const poolSize = pool[otherOutcome] - startPool[otherOutcome]
|
||||
|
||||
return (1 - fees) * (dpmWeight / dpmWeights[outcome]) * poolSize + amount
|
||||
}
|
||||
export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
|
||||
if (contract.resolution)
|
||||
return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
|
||||
throw new Error('Contract was not resolved')
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
|
||||
const prob = getProbability(contract.pool)
|
||||
const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
|
||||
const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
|
||||
|
||||
return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
|
||||
}
|
||||
6
web/lib/firebase/api-call.ts
Normal file
6
web/lib/firebase/api-call.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
|
|||
import { getFunctions, httpsCallable } from 'firebase/functions'
|
||||
|
||||
const functions = getFunctions()
|
||||
|
||||
export const cloudFunction = (name: string) => httpsCallable(functions, name)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -11,12 +11,21 @@ export type Bet = {
|
|||
id: string
|
||||
userId: string
|
||||
contractId: string
|
||||
amount: number // Amount of bet
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' // Chosen outcome
|
||||
dpmWeight: number // Dynamic Parimutuel weight
|
||||
|
||||
amount: number // bet size; negative if SELL bet
|
||||
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
|
||||
shares: number // dynamic parimutuel pool weight; negative if SELL bet
|
||||
|
||||
probBefore: number
|
||||
probAverage: number
|
||||
probAfter: number
|
||||
|
||||
sale?: {
|
||||
amount: number // amount user makes from sale
|
||||
betId: string // id of bet being sold
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
isSold?: boolean // true if this BUY bet has been sold
|
||||
|
||||
createdTime: number
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ export type Contract = {
|
|||
|
||||
startPool: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
pool: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
dpmWeights: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
|
||||
|
||||
createdTime: number // Milliseconds since epoch
|
||||
lastUpdatedTime: number // If the question or description was changed
|
||||
|
|
@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ export function path(contract: Contract) {
|
|||
|
||||
export function compute(contract: Contract) {
|
||||
const { pool, startPool, createdTime, resolutionTime, isResolved } = contract
|
||||
const volume = pool.YES + pool.NO - startPool.YES - startPool.NO
|
||||
const truePool = pool.YES + pool.NO - startPool.YES - startPool.NO
|
||||
const prob = pool.YES ** 2 / (pool.YES ** 2 + pool.NO ** 2)
|
||||
const probPercent = Math.round(prob * 100) + '%'
|
||||
const startProb =
|
||||
|
|
@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ export function compute(contract: Contract) {
|
|||
const resolvedDate = isResolved
|
||||
? dayjs(resolutionTime).format('MMM D')
|
||||
: undefined
|
||||
return { volume, probPercent, startProb, createdDate, resolvedDate }
|
||||
return { truePool, probPercent, startProb, createdDate, resolvedDate }
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const db = getFirestore(app)
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,24 +1,28 @@
|
|||
import { getFirestore } from '@firebase/firestore'
|
||||
import { initializeApp } from 'firebase/app'
|
||||
const firebaseConfig = {
|
||||
apiKey: 'AIzaSyDp3J57vLeAZCzxLD-vcPaGIkAmBoGOSYw',
|
||||
authDomain: 'mantic-markets.firebaseapp.com',
|
||||
projectId: 'mantic-markets',
|
||||
storageBucket: 'mantic-markets.appspot.com',
|
||||
messagingSenderId: '128925704902',
|
||||
appId: '1:128925704902:web:f61f86944d8ffa2a642dc7',
|
||||
measurementId: 'G-SSFK1Q138D',
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export const isProd = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production'
|
||||
|
||||
const firebaseConfig = isProd
|
||||
? {
|
||||
apiKey: 'AIzaSyDp3J57vLeAZCzxLD-vcPaGIkAmBoGOSYw',
|
||||
authDomain: 'mantic-markets.firebaseapp.com',
|
||||
projectId: 'mantic-markets',
|
||||
storageBucket: 'mantic-markets.appspot.com',
|
||||
messagingSenderId: '128925704902',
|
||||
appId: '1:128925704902:web:f61f86944d8ffa2a642dc7',
|
||||
measurementId: 'G-SSFK1Q138D',
|
||||
}
|
||||
: {
|
||||
apiKey: 'AIzaSyBoq3rzUa8Ekyo3ZaTnlycQYPRCA26VpOw',
|
||||
authDomain: 'dev-mantic-markets.firebaseapp.com',
|
||||
projectId: 'dev-mantic-markets',
|
||||
storageBucket: 'dev-mantic-markets.appspot.com',
|
||||
messagingSenderId: '134303100058',
|
||||
appId: '1:134303100058:web:27f9ea8b83347251f80323',
|
||||
measurementId: 'G-YJC9E37P37',
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Initialize Firebase
|
||||
export const app = initializeApp(firebaseConfig)
|
||||
export const db = getFirestore(app)
|
||||
|
||||
// try {
|
||||
// // Note: this is still throwing a console error atm...
|
||||
// import('firebase/analytics').then((analytics) => {
|
||||
// analytics.getAnalytics(app)
|
||||
// })
|
||||
// } catch (e) {
|
||||
// console.warn('Analytics were blocked')
|
||||
// }
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -2,7 +2,6 @@ import {
|
|||
Contract,
|
||||
getContractFromSlug,
|
||||
pushNewContract,
|
||||
setContract,
|
||||
} from '../firebase/contracts'
|
||||
import { User } from '../firebase/users'
|
||||
import { randomString } from '../util/random-string'
|
||||
|
|
@ -38,7 +37,7 @@ export async function createContract(
|
|||
|
||||
startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
|
||||
pool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
|
||||
dpmWeights: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
|
||||
totalShares: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
|
||||
isResolved: false,
|
||||
|
||||
// TODO: Set create time to Firestore timestamp
|
||||
|
|
@ -49,8 +48,8 @@ export async function createContract(
|
|||
return await pushNewContract(contract)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function calcStartPool(initialProb: number, initialCapital = 200) {
|
||||
const p = initialProb / 100.0
|
||||
export function calcStartPool(initialProbInt: number, initialCapital = 200) {
|
||||
const p = initialProbInt / 100.0
|
||||
|
||||
const startYes =
|
||||
p === 0.5
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -21,10 +21,13 @@ function makeWeights(bids: Bid[]) {
|
|||
// First pass: calculate all the weights
|
||||
for (const { yesBid, noBid } of bids) {
|
||||
const yesWeight =
|
||||
(yesBid * Math.pow(noPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + yesBid * yesPot) ||
|
||||
0
|
||||
yesBid +
|
||||
(yesBid * Math.pow(noPot, 2)) /
|
||||
(Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + yesBid * yesPot) || 0
|
||||
const noWeight =
|
||||
(noBid * Math.pow(yesPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + noBid * noPot) || 0
|
||||
noBid +
|
||||
(noBid * Math.pow(yesPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + noBid * noPot) ||
|
||||
0
|
||||
|
||||
// Note: Need to calculate weights BEFORE updating pot
|
||||
yesPot += yesBid
|
||||
|
|
@ -53,15 +56,15 @@ export function makeEntries(bids: Bid[]): Entry[] {
|
|||
const yesWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.yesWeight, 0)
|
||||
const noWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.noWeight, 0)
|
||||
|
||||
const potSize = yesPot + noPot - YES_SEED - NO_SEED
|
||||
|
||||
// Second pass: calculate all the payouts
|
||||
const entries: Entry[] = []
|
||||
|
||||
for (const weight of weights) {
|
||||
const { yesBid, noBid, yesWeight, noWeight } = weight
|
||||
// Payout: You get your initial bid back, as well as your share of the
|
||||
// (noPot - seed) according to your yesWeight
|
||||
const yesPayout = yesBid + (yesWeight / yesWeightsSum) * (noPot - NO_SEED)
|
||||
const noPayout = noBid + (noWeight / noWeightsSum) * (yesPot - YES_SEED)
|
||||
const yesPayout = (yesWeight / yesWeightsSum) * potSize
|
||||
const noPayout = (noWeight / noWeightsSum) * potSize
|
||||
const yesReturn = (yesPayout - yesBid) / yesBid
|
||||
const noReturn = (noPayout - noBid) / noBid
|
||||
entries.push({ ...weight, yesPayout, noPayout, yesReturn, noReturn })
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,11 +6,11 @@ const formatter = new Intl.NumberFormat('en-US', {
|
|||
})
|
||||
|
||||
export function formatMoney(amount: number) {
|
||||
return 'M$ ' + formatter.format(amount).substring(1)
|
||||
return 'M$ ' + formatter.format(amount).replace('$', '')
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function formatWithCommas(amount: number) {
|
||||
return formatter.format(amount).substring(1)
|
||||
return formatter.format(amount).replace('$', '')
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function formatPercent(zeroToOne: number) {
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ function BetsSection(props: { contract: Contract; user: User | null }) {
|
|||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<Title text="Your bets" />
|
||||
<Title text="Your trades" />
|
||||
<MyBetsSummary contract={contract} bets={userBets} />
|
||||
<Spacer h={6} />
|
||||
<ContractBetsTable contract={contract} bets={userBets} />
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -162,8 +162,8 @@ function Contents() {
|
|||
</p>
|
||||
<h3 id="how-are-markets-resolved-">How are markets resolved?</h3>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 0.5%
|
||||
of the trade volume for their effort.
|
||||
The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 1% of
|
||||
the betting pool for their effort.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null; isNew?: boolean }) {
|
|||
return (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
<td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
|
||||
<td>${(entry.yesBid + entry.yesWeight).toFixed(0)}</td>
|
||||
<td>${entry.yesWeight.toFixed(0)}</td>
|
||||
{!props.isNew && (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
<td>${entry.yesPayout.toFixed(0)}</td>
|
||||
|
|
@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null; isNew?: boolean }) {
|
|||
return (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
<td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
|
||||
<td>${(entry.noBid + entry.noWeight).toFixed(0)}</td>
|
||||
<td>${entry.noWeight.toFixed(0)}</td>
|
||||
{!props.isNew && (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
<td>${entry.noPayout.toFixed(0)}</td>
|
||||
|
|
@ -149,9 +149,9 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
|
|||
|
||||
function randomBid() {
|
||||
const bidType = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 'YES' : 'NO'
|
||||
const p = bidType === 'YES' ? nextEntry.prob : 1 - nextEntry.prob
|
||||
// const p = bidType === 'YES' ? nextEntry.prob : 1 - nextEntry.prob
|
||||
|
||||
const amount = Math.round(p * Math.random() * 300) + 1
|
||||
const amount = Math.floor(Math.random() * 300) + 1
|
||||
const bid = makeBid(bidType, amount)
|
||||
|
||||
bids.splice(steps, 0, bid)
|
||||
|
|
@ -238,7 +238,7 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
|
|||
// Show a hello world React page
|
||||
export default function Simulator() {
|
||||
const [steps, setSteps] = useState(1)
|
||||
const [bids, setBids] = useState([{ yesBid: 550, noBid: 450 }])
|
||||
const [bids, setBids] = useState([{ yesBid: 100, noBid: 100 }])
|
||||
|
||||
const entries = useMemo(
|
||||
() => makeEntries(bids.slice(0, steps)),
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -4,13 +4,13 @@ import { SEO } from '../components/SEO'
|
|||
import { Title } from '../components/title'
|
||||
import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
|
||||
|
||||
export default function BetsPage() {
|
||||
export default function TradesPage() {
|
||||
const user = useUser()
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Page>
|
||||
<SEO title="Your bets" description="Your bets" url="/bets" />
|
||||
<Title text="Your bets" />
|
||||
<SEO title="Your trades" description="Your trades" url="/trades" />
|
||||
<Title text="Your trades" />
|
||||
{user && <BetsList user={user} />}
|
||||
</Page>
|
||||
)
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user