Merge branch 'main' into atlas2

common/calculate.ts

@@ -18,15 +18,24 @@ import {
   getDpmProbabilityAfterSale,
 } from './calculate-dpm'
 import { calculateFixedPayout } from './calculate-fixed-payouts'
-import { Contract, BinaryContract, FreeResponseContract } from './contract'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  BinaryContract,
+  FreeResponseContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
+} from './contract'
 
-export function getProbability(contract: BinaryContract) {
+export function getProbability(
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
+) {
   return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
     ? getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p)
     : getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares)
 }
 
-export function getInitialProbability(contract: BinaryContract) {
+export function getInitialProbability(
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
+) {
   if (contract.initialProbability) return contract.initialProbability
 
   if (contract.mechanism === 'dpm-2' || (contract as any).totalShares)
@@ -65,7 +74,9 @@ export function calculateShares(
 }
 
 export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
     ? calculateCpmmSale(contract, Math.abs(bet.shares), bet.outcome).saleValue
     : calculateDpmSaleAmount(contract, bet)
 }
@@ -87,7 +98,9 @@ export function getProbabilityAfterSale(
 }
 
 export function calculatePayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: string) {
-  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
     ? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
     : calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
 }
@@ -96,7 +109,9 @@ export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   const outcome = contract.resolution
   if (!outcome) throw new Error('Contract not resolved')
 
-  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
     ? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
     : calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
 }
@@ -142,9 +157,7 @@ export function getContractBetMetrics(contract: Contract, yourBets: Bet[]) {
   const profit = payout + saleValue + redeemed - totalInvested
   const profitPercent = (profit / totalInvested) * 100
 
-  const hasShares = Object.values(totalShares).some(
+  const hasShares = Object.values(totalShares).some((shares) => shares > 0)
-    (shares) => shares > 0
-  )
 
   return {
     invested: Math.max(0, currentInvested),

common/contract.ts

@@ -2,9 +2,10 @@ import { Answer } from './answer'
 import { Fees } from './fees'
 
 export type AnyMechanism = DPM | CPMM
-export type AnyOutcomeType = Binary | FreeResponse | Numeric
+export type AnyOutcomeType = Binary | PseudoNumeric | FreeResponse | Numeric
 export type AnyContractType =
   | (CPMM & Binary)
+  | (CPMM & PseudoNumeric)
   | (DPM & Binary)
   | (DPM & FreeResponse)
   | (DPM & Numeric)
@@ -33,7 +34,7 @@ export type Contract<T extends AnyContractType = AnyContractType> = {
   isResolved: boolean
   resolutionTime?: number // When the contract creator resolved the market
   resolution?: string
-  resolutionProbability?: number,
+  resolutionProbability?: number
 
   closeEmailsSent?: number
 
@@ -45,6 +46,7 @@ export type Contract<T extends AnyContractType = AnyContractType> = {
 } & T
 
 export type BinaryContract = Contract & Binary 
+export type PseudoNumericContract = Contract & PseudoNumeric 
 export type NumericContract = Contract & Numeric
 export type FreeResponseContract = Contract & FreeResponse
 export type DPMContract = Contract & DPM
@@ -75,6 +77,18 @@ export type Binary = {
   resolution?: resolution
 }
 
+export type PseudoNumeric = {
+  outcomeType: 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+  min: number
+  max: number
+  isLogScale: boolean
+  resolutionValue?: number
+
+  // same as binary market; map everything to probability
+  initialProbability: number
+  resolutionProbability?: number
+}
+
 export type FreeResponse = {
   outcomeType: 'FREE_RESPONSE'
   answers: Answer[] // Used for outcomeType 'FREE_RESPONSE'.
@@ -94,7 +108,7 @@ export type Numeric = {
 export type outcomeType = AnyOutcomeType['outcomeType']
 export type resolution = 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL'
 export const RESOLUTIONS = ['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'] as const
-export const OUTCOME_TYPES = ['BINARY', 'FREE_RESPONSE', 'NUMERIC'] as const
+export const OUTCOME_TYPES = ['BINARY', 'FREE_RESPONSE', 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC', 'NUMERIC'] as const
 
 export const MAX_QUESTION_LENGTH = 480
 export const MAX_DESCRIPTION_LENGTH = 10000

common/new-bet.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import {
   DPMBinaryContract,
   FreeResponseContract,
   NumericContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
 } from './contract'
 import { noFees } from './fees'
 import { addObjects } from './util/object'
@@ -32,7 +33,7 @@ export type BetInfo = {
 export const getNewBinaryCpmmBetInfo = (
   outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
   amount: number,
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract,
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract,
   loanAmount: number
 ) => {
   const { shares, newPool, newP, fees } = calculateCpmmPurchase(

common/new-contract.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   FreeResponse,
   Numeric,
   outcomeType,
+  PseudoNumeric,
 } from './contract'
 import { User } from './user'
 import { parseTags } from './util/parse'
@@ -27,7 +28,8 @@ export function getNewContract(
   // used for numeric markets
   bucketCount: number,
   min: number,
-  max: number
+  max: number,
+  isLogScale: boolean
 ) {
   const tags = parseTags(
     `${question} ${description} ${extraTags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`).join(' ')}`
@@ -37,6 +39,8 @@ export function getNewContract(
   const propsByOutcomeType =
     outcomeType === 'BINARY'
       ? getBinaryCpmmProps(initialProb, ante) // getBinaryDpmProps(initialProb, ante)
+      : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+      ? getPseudoNumericCpmmProps(initialProb, ante, min, max, isLogScale)
       : outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
       ? getNumericProps(ante, bucketCount, min, max)
       : getFreeAnswerProps(ante)
@@ -111,6 +115,24 @@ const getBinaryCpmmProps = (initialProb: number, ante: number) => {
   return system
 }
 
+const getPseudoNumericCpmmProps = (
+  initialProb: number,
+  ante: number,
+  min: number,
+  max: number,
+  isLogScale: boolean
+) => {
+  const system: CPMM & PseudoNumeric = {
+    ...getBinaryCpmmProps(initialProb, ante),
+    outcomeType: 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC',
+    min,
+    max,
+    isLogScale,
+  }
+
+  return system
+}
+
 const getFreeAnswerProps = (ante: number) => {
   const system: DPM & FreeResponse = {
     mechanism: 'dpm-2',

common/payouts.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,12 @@
 import { sumBy, groupBy, mapValues } from 'lodash'
 
 import { Bet, NumericBet } from './bet'
-import { Contract, CPMMBinaryContract, DPMContract } from './contract'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  CPMMBinaryContract,
+  DPMContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
+} from './contract'
 import { Fees } from './fees'
 import { LiquidityProvision } from './liquidity-provision'
 import {
@@ -56,7 +61,11 @@ export const getPayouts = (
   },
   resolutionProbability?: number
 ): PayoutInfo => {
-  if (contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
+  if (
+    contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
+  ) {
     return getFixedPayouts(
       outcome,
       contract,
@@ -76,7 +85,7 @@ export const getPayouts = (
 
 export const getFixedPayouts = (
   outcome: string | undefined,
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract,
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract,
   bets: Bet[],
   liquidities: LiquidityProvision[],
   resolutionProbability?: number

common/pseudo-numeric.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from './contract'
+import { formatLargeNumber, formatPercent } from './util/format'
+
+export function formatNumericProbability(
+  p: number,
+  contract: PseudoNumericContract
+) {
+  const value = getMappedValue(contract)(p)
+  return formatLargeNumber(value)
+}
+
+export const getMappedValue =
+  (contract: PseudoNumericContract | BinaryContract) => (p: number) => {
+    if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') return p
+
+    const { min, max, isLogScale } = contract
+
+    if (isLogScale) {
+      const logValue = p * Math.log10(max - min)
+      return 10 ** logValue + min 
+    }
+
+    return p * (max - min) + min
+  }
+
+export const getFormattedMappedValue =
+  (contract: PseudoNumericContract | BinaryContract) => (p: number) => {
+    if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') return formatPercent(p)
+
+    const value = getMappedValue(contract)(p)
+    return formatLargeNumber(value)
+  }
+
+export const getPseudoProbability = (
+  value: number,
+  min: number,
+  max: number,
+  isLogScale = false
+) => {
+  if (isLogScale) {
+    return Math.log10(value - min) / Math.log10(max - min)
+  }
+
+  return (value - min) / (max - min)
+}

firestore.rules

@@ -21,11 +21,16 @@ service cloud.firestore {
       allow update: if resource.data.id == request.auth.uid
                        && request.resource.data.diff(resource.data).affectedKeys()
                                                                     .hasOnly(['bio', 'bannerUrl', 'website', 'twitterHandle', 'discordHandle', 'followedCategories', 'referredByContractId']);
-      // only one referral allowed per user
       allow update: if resource.data.id == request.auth.uid
                        && request.resource.data.diff(resource.data).affectedKeys()
                         .hasOnly(['referredByUserId'])
-                                        && !("referredByUserId" in resource.data);
+                        // only one referral allowed per user
+                        && !("referredByUserId" in resource.data)
+                        // user can't refer themselves
+                        && (resource.data.id != request.resource.data.referredByUserId)
+                        // user can't refer someone who referred them quid pro quo
+                        && get(/databases/$(database)/documents/users/$(request.resource.data.referredByUserId)).referredByUserId != resource.data.id;
+
     }
 
   	match /{somePath=**}/portfolioHistory/{portfolioHistoryId} {

functions/README.md

@@ -23,8 +23,10 @@ Adapted from https://firebase.google.com/docs/functions/get-started
 ### For local development
 
 0. [Install](https://cloud.google.com/sdk/docs/install) gcloud CLI
-1. If you don't have java (or see the error `Error: Process java -version has exited with code 1. Please make sure Java is installed and on your system PATH.`): 0. `$ brew install java`
+1. If you don't have java (or see the error `Error: Process java -version has exited with code 1. Please make sure Java is installed and on your system PATH.`):
-   1. `$ sudo ln -sfn /opt/homebrew/opt/openjdk/libexec/openjdk.jdk /Library/Java/JavaVirtualMachines/openjdk.jdk`
+
+   1. `$ brew install java`
+   2. `$ sudo ln -sfn /opt/homebrew/opt/openjdk/libexec/openjdk.jdk /Library/Java/JavaVirtualMachines/openjdk.jdk`
 2. `$ gcloud auth login` to authenticate the CLI tools to Google Cloud
 3. `$ gcloud config set project <project-id>` to choose the project (`$ gcloud projects list` to see options)
 4. `$ mkdir firestore_export` to create a folder to store the exported database

functions/package.json

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
     "start": "yarn shell",
     "deploy": "firebase deploy --only functions",
     "logs": "firebase functions:log",
-    "serve": "yarn build && firebase emulators:start --only functions,firestore --import=./firestore_export",
+    "serve": "firebase use dev && yarn build && firebase emulators:start --only functions,firestore --import=./firestore_export",
     "db:update-local-from-remote": "yarn db:backup-remote && gsutil rsync -r gs://$npm_package_config_firestore/firestore_export ./firestore_export",
     "db:backup-local": "firebase emulators:export --force ./firestore_export",
     "db:rename-remote-backup-folder": "gsutil mv gs://$npm_package_config_firestore/firestore_export gs://$npm_package_config_firestore/firestore_export_$(date +%d-%m-%Y-%H-%M)",
@@ -23,7 +23,6 @@
   "main": "functions/src/index.js",
   "dependencies": {
     "@amplitude/node": "1.10.0",
-    "fetch": "1.1.0",
     "firebase-admin": "10.0.0",
     "firebase-functions": "3.21.2",
     "lodash": "4.17.21",

functions/src/add-liquidity.ts

@@ -39,7 +39,8 @@ export const addLiquidity = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
         const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
         if (
           contract.mechanism !== 'cpmm-1' ||
-          contract.outcomeType !== 'BINARY'
+          (contract.outcomeType !== 'BINARY' &&
+            contract.outcomeType !== 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
         )
           return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
 

functions/src/backup-db.ts

@@ -18,46 +18,63 @@
 
 import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
 import * as firestore from '@google-cloud/firestore'
-const client = new firestore.v1.FirestoreAdminClient()
+import { FirestoreAdminClient } from '@google-cloud/firestore/types/v1/firestore_admin_client'
 
-const bucket = 'gs://manifold-firestore-backup'
+export const backupDbCore = async (
-
+  client: FirestoreAdminClient,
-export const backupDb = functions.pubsub
+  project: string,
-  .schedule('every 24 hours')
+  bucket: string
-  .onRun((_context) => {
+) => {
-    const projectId = process.env.GCP_PROJECT || process.env.GCLOUD_PROJECT
+  const name = client.databasePath(project, '(default)')
-    if (projectId == null) {
+  const outputUriPrefix = `gs://${bucket}`
-      throw new Error('No project ID environment variable set.')
-    }
-    const databaseName = client.databasePath(projectId, '(default)')
-
-    return client
-      .exportDocuments({
-        name: databaseName,
-        outputUriPrefix: bucket,
   // Leave collectionIds empty to export all collections
   // or set to a list of collection IDs to export,
   // collectionIds: ['users', 'posts']
   // NOTE: Subcollections are not backed up by default
-        collectionIds: [
+  const collectionIds = [
     'contracts',
     'groups',
     'private-users',
     'stripe-transactions',
+    'transactions',
     'users',
     'bets',
     'comments',
+    'follows',
     'followers',
     'answers',
     'txns',
-        ],
+    'manalinks',
-      })
+    'liquidity',
-      .then((responses) => {
+    'stats',
+    'cache',
+    'latency',
+    'views',
+    'notifications',
+    'portfolioHistory',
+    'folds',
+  ]
+  return await client.exportDocuments({ name, outputUriPrefix, collectionIds })
+}
+
+export const backupDb = functions.pubsub
+  .schedule('every 24 hours')
+  .onRun(async (_context) => {
+    try {
+      const client = new firestore.v1.FirestoreAdminClient()
+      const project = process.env.GCP_PROJECT || process.env.GCLOUD_PROJECT
+      if (project == null) {
+        throw new Error('No project ID environment variable set.')
+      }
+      const responses = await backupDbCore(
+        client,
+        project,
+        'manifold-firestore-backup'
+      )
       const response = responses[0]
       console.log(`Operation Name: ${response['name']}`)
-      })
+    } catch (err) {
-      .catch((err) => {
       console.error(err)
       throw new Error('Export operation failed')
-      })
+    }
   })

functions/src/call-cloud-function.ts

@@ -1,17 +0,0 @@
-import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
-
-import fetch from './fetch'
-
-export const callCloudFunction = (functionName: string, data: unknown = {}) => {
-  const projectId = admin.instanceId().app.options.projectId
-
-  const url = `https://us-central1-${projectId}.cloudfunctions.net/${functionName}`
-
-  return fetch(url, {
-    method: 'POST',
-    headers: {
-      'Content-Type': 'application/json',
-    },
-    body: JSON.stringify({ data }),
-  }).then((response) => response.json())
-}

functions/src/create-contract.ts

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ import { getNewContract } from '../../common/new-contract'
 import { NUMERIC_BUCKET_COUNT } from '../../common/numeric-constants'
 import { User } from '../../common/user'
 import { Group, MAX_ID_LENGTH } from '../../common/group'
+import { getPseudoProbability } from '../../common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 const bodySchema = z.object({
   question: z.string().min(1).max(MAX_QUESTION_LENGTH),
@@ -45,19 +46,31 @@ const binarySchema = z.object({
   initialProb: z.number().min(1).max(99),
 })
 
+const finite = () => z.number().gte(Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER).lte(Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER)
+
 const numericSchema = z.object({
-  min: z.number(),
+  min: finite(),
-  max: z.number(),
+  max: finite(),
+  initialValue: finite(),
+  isLogScale: z.boolean().optional(),
 })
 
 export const createmarket = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
   const { question, description, tags, closeTime, outcomeType, groupId } =
     validate(bodySchema, req.body)
 
-  let min, max, initialProb
+  let min, max, initialProb, isLogScale
-  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
+
-    ;({ min, max } = validate(numericSchema, req.body))
+  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' || outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
-    if (max - min <= 0.01) throw new APIError(400, 'Invalid range.')
+    let initialValue
+    ;({ min, max, initialValue, isLogScale } = validate(
+      numericSchema,
+      req.body
+    ))
+    if (max - min <= 0.01 || initialValue < min || initialValue > max)
+      throw new APIError(400, 'Invalid range.')
+
+    initialProb = getPseudoProbability(initialValue, min, max, isLogScale) * 100
   }
   if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
     ;({ initialProb } = validate(binarySchema, req.body))
@@ -121,7 +134,8 @@ export const createmarket = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
     tags ?? [],
     NUMERIC_BUCKET_COUNT,
     min ?? 0,
-    max ?? 0
+    max ?? 0,
+    isLogScale ?? false
   )
 
   if (ante) await chargeUser(user.id, ante, true)
@@ -130,7 +144,7 @@ export const createmarket = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
 
   const providerId = user.id
 
-  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
+  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
     const liquidityDoc = firestore
       .collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/liquidity`)
       .doc()

functions/src/emails.ts

@@ -6,8 +6,13 @@ import { Comment } from '../../common/comment'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { DPM_CREATOR_FEE } from '../../common/fees'
 import { PrivateUser, User } from '../../common/user'
-import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from '../../common/util/format'
+import {
+  formatLargeNumber,
+  formatMoney,
+  formatPercent,
+} from '../../common/util/format'
 import { getValueFromBucket } from '../../common/calculate-dpm'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from '../../common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 import { sendTemplateEmail } from './send-email'
 import { getPrivateUser, getUser } from './utils'
@@ -101,6 +106,17 @@ const toDisplayResolution = (
     return display || resolution
   }
 
+  if (contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
+    const { resolutionValue } = contract
+
+    return resolutionValue
+      ? formatLargeNumber(resolutionValue)
+      : formatNumericProbability(
+          resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(contract),
+          contract
+        )
+  }
+
   if (resolution === 'MKT' && resolutions) return 'MULTI'
   if (resolution === 'CANCEL') return 'N/A'
 

functions/src/fetch.ts

@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
-let fetchRequest: typeof fetch
-
-try {
-  fetchRequest = fetch
-} catch {
-  fetchRequest = require('node-fetch')
-}
-
-export default fetchRequest

functions/src/keep-awake.ts

@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
-import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
-
-import { callCloudFunction } from './call-cloud-function'
-
-export const keepAwake = functions.pubsub
-  .schedule('every 1 minutes')
-  .onRun(async () => {
-    await Promise.all([
-      callCloudFunction('placeBet'),
-      callCloudFunction('resolveMarket'),
-      callCloudFunction('sellBet'),
-    ])
-
-    await sleep(30)
-
-    await Promise.all([
-      callCloudFunction('placeBet'),
-      callCloudFunction('resolveMarket'),
-      callCloudFunction('sellBet'),
-    ])
-  })
-
-const sleep = (seconds: number) => {
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, seconds * 1000))
-}

functions/src/place-bet.ts

@@ -41,10 +41,7 @@ export const placebet = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
     log('Inside main transaction.')
     const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
     const userDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${auth.uid}`)
-    const [contractSnap, userSnap] = await Promise.all([
+    const [contractSnap, userSnap] = await trans.getAll(contractDoc, userDoc)
-      trans.get(contractDoc),
-      trans.get(userDoc),
-    ])
     if (!contractSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'Contract not found.')
     if (!userSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'User not found.')
     log('Loaded user and contract snapshots.')
@@ -70,7 +67,10 @@ export const placebet = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
       if (outcomeType == 'BINARY' && mechanism == 'dpm-2') {
         const { outcome } = validate(binarySchema, req.body)
         return getNewBinaryDpmBetInfo(outcome, amount, contract, loanAmount)
-      } else if (outcomeType == 'BINARY' && mechanism == 'cpmm-1') {
+      } else if (
+        (outcomeType == 'BINARY' || outcomeType == 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') &&
+        mechanism == 'cpmm-1'
+      ) {
         const { outcome } = validate(binarySchema, req.body)
         return getNewBinaryCpmmBetInfo(outcome, amount, contract, loanAmount)
       } else if (outcomeType == 'FREE_RESPONSE' && mechanism == 'dpm-2') {

functions/src/redeem-shares.ts

@@ -16,7 +16,11 @@ export const redeemShares = async (userId: string, contractId: string) => {
       return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
 
     const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
-    if (contract.outcomeType !== 'BINARY' || contract.mechanism !== 'cpmm-1')
+    const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+    if (
+      !(outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') ||
+      mechanism !== 'cpmm-1'
+    )
       return { status: 'success' }
 
     const betsSnap = await transaction.get(

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ const bodySchema = z.object({
 
 const binarySchema = z.object({
   outcome: z.enum(RESOLUTIONS),
-  probabilityInt: z.number().gte(0).lt(100).optional(),
+  probabilityInt: z.number().gte(0).lte(100).optional(),
 })
 
 const freeResponseSchema = z.union([
@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ const freeResponseSchema = z.union([
     resolutions: z.array(
       z.object({
         answer: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
-        pct: z.number().gte(0).lt(100),
+        pct: z.number().gte(0).lte(100),
       })
     ),
   }),
@@ -53,7 +53,19 @@ const numericSchema = z.object({
   value: z.number().optional(),
 })
 
+const pseudoNumericSchema = z.union([
+  z.object({
+    outcome: z.literal('CANCEL'),
+  }),
+  z.object({
+    outcome: z.literal('MKT'),
+    value: z.number(),
+    probabilityInt: z.number().gte(0).lte(100),
+  }),
+])
+
 const opts = { secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'] }
+
 export const resolvemarket = newEndpoint(opts, async (req, auth) => {
   const { contractId } = validate(bodySchema, req.body)
   const userId = auth.uid
@@ -221,12 +233,18 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
 
 function getResolutionParams(contract: Contract, body: string) {
   const { outcomeType } = contract
+
   if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
     return {
       ...validate(numericSchema, body),
       resolutions: undefined,
       probabilityInt: undefined,
     }
+  } else if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
+    return {
+      ...validate(pseudoNumericSchema, body),
+      resolutions: undefined,
+    }
   } else if (outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
     const freeResponseParams = validate(freeResponseSchema, body)
     const { outcome } = freeResponseParams

functions/src/scripts/backup-db.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+import * as firestore from '@google-cloud/firestore'
+import { getServiceAccountCredentials } from './script-init'
+import { backupDbCore } from '../backup-db'
+
+async function backupDb() {
+  const credentials = getServiceAccountCredentials()
+  const projectId = credentials.project_id
+  const client = new firestore.v1.FirestoreAdminClient({ credentials })
+  const bucket = 'manifold-firestore-backup'
+  const resp = await backupDbCore(client, projectId, bucket)
+  console.log(`Operation: ${resp[0]['name']}`)
+}
+
+if (require.main === module) {
+  backupDb().then(() => process.exit())
+}

functions/src/scripts/script-init.ts

@@ -47,26 +47,29 @@ const getFirebaseActiveProject = (cwd: string) => {
   }
 }
 
-export const initAdmin = (env?: string) => {
+export const getServiceAccountCredentials = (env?: string) => {
   env = env || getFirebaseActiveProject(process.cwd())
   if (env == null) {
-    console.error(
+    throw new Error(
       "Couldn't find active Firebase project; did you do `firebase use <alias>?`"
     )
-    return
   }
   const envVar = `GOOGLE_APPLICATION_CREDENTIALS_${env.toUpperCase()}`
   const keyPath = process.env[envVar]
   if (keyPath == null) {
-    console.error(
+    throw new Error(
       `Please set the ${envVar} environment variable to contain the path to your ${env} environment key file.`
     )
-    return
   }
-  console.log(`Initializing connection to ${env} Firebase...`)
   /* eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-var-requires */
-  const serviceAccount = require(keyPath)
+  return require(keyPath)
-  admin.initializeApp({
+}
+
+export const initAdmin = (env?: string) => {
+  const serviceAccount = getServiceAccountCredentials(env)
+  console.log(`Initializing connection to ${serviceAccount.project_id}...`)
+  return admin.initializeApp({
+    projectId: serviceAccount.project_id,
     credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
   })
 }

functions/src/scripts/update-feed.ts

@@ -1,53 +0,0 @@
-import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
-
-import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
-initAdmin()
-
-import { getValues } from '../utils'
-import { User } from '../../../common/user'
-import { batchedWaitAll } from '../../../common/util/promise'
-import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
-import { updateWordScores } from '../update-recommendations'
-import { computeFeed } from '../update-feed'
-import { getFeedContracts, getTaggedContracts } from '../get-feed-data'
-import { CATEGORY_LIST } from '../../../common/categories'
-
-const firestore = admin.firestore()
-
-async function updateFeed() {
-  console.log('Updating feed')
-
-  const contracts = await getValues<Contract>(firestore.collection('contracts'))
-  const feedContracts = await getFeedContracts()
-  const users = await getValues<User>(
-    firestore.collection('users').where('username', '==', 'JamesGrugett')
-  )
-
-  await batchedWaitAll(
-    users.map((user) => async () => {
-      console.log('Updating recs for', user.username)
-      await updateWordScores(user, contracts)
-      console.log('Updating feed for', user.username)
-      await computeFeed(user, feedContracts)
-    })
-  )
-
-  console.log('Updating feed categories!')
-
-  await batchedWaitAll(
-    users.map((user) => async () => {
-      for (const category of CATEGORY_LIST) {
-        const contracts = await getTaggedContracts(category)
-        const feed = await computeFeed(user, contracts)
-        await firestore
-          .collection(`private-users/${user.id}/cache`)
-          .doc(`feed-${category}`)
-          .set({ feed })
-      }
-    })
-  )
-}
-
-if (require.main === module) {
-  updateFeed().then(() => process.exit())
-}

functions/src/sell-bet.ts

@@ -21,11 +21,11 @@ export const sellbet = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
     const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
     const userDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${auth.uid}`)
     const betDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}/bets/${betId}`)
-    const [contractSnap, userSnap, betSnap] = await Promise.all([
+    const [contractSnap, userSnap, betSnap] = await transaction.getAll(
-      transaction.get(contractDoc),
+      contractDoc,
-      transaction.get(userDoc),
+      userDoc,
-      transaction.get(betDoc),
+      betDoc
-    ])
+    )
     if (!contractSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'Contract not found.')
     if (!userSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'User not found.')
     if (!betSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'Bet not found.')

functions/src/sell-shares.ts

@@ -24,9 +24,8 @@ export const sellshares = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
     const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
     const userDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${auth.uid}`)
     const betsQ = contractDoc.collection('bets').where('userId', '==', auth.uid)
-    const [contractSnap, userSnap, userBets] = await Promise.all([
+    const [[contractSnap, userSnap], userBets] = await Promise.all([
-      transaction.get(contractDoc),
+      transaction.getAll(contractDoc, userDoc),
-      transaction.get(userDoc),
       getValues<Bet>(betsQ), // TODO: why is this not in the transaction??
     ])
     if (!contractSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'Contract not found.')

functions/src/update-feed.ts

@@ -1,220 +0,0 @@
-import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
-import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
-import { flatten, shuffle, sortBy, uniq, zip, zipObject } from 'lodash'
-
-import { getValue, getValues } from './utils'
-import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
-import { logInterpolation } from '../../common/util/math'
-import { DAY_MS } from '../../common/util/time'
-import {
-  getProbability,
-  getOutcomeProbability,
-  getTopAnswer,
-} from '../../common/calculate'
-import { User } from '../../common/user'
-import {
-  getContractScore,
-  MAX_FEED_CONTRACTS,
-} from '../../common/recommended-contracts'
-import { callCloudFunction } from './call-cloud-function'
-import {
-  getFeedContracts,
-  getRecentBetsAndComments,
-  getTaggedContracts,
-} from './get-feed-data'
-import { CATEGORY_LIST } from '../../common/categories'
-
-const firestore = admin.firestore()
-
-const BATCH_SIZE = 30
-const MAX_BATCHES = 50
-
-const getUserBatches = async () => {
-  const users = shuffle(await getValues<User>(firestore.collection('users')))
-  const userBatches: User[][] = []
-  for (let i = 0; i < users.length; i += BATCH_SIZE) {
-    userBatches.push(users.slice(i, i + BATCH_SIZE))
-  }
-
-  console.log('updating feed batches', MAX_BATCHES, 'of', userBatches.length)
-
-  return userBatches.slice(0, MAX_BATCHES)
-}
-
-export const updateFeed = functions.pubsub
-  .schedule('every 60 minutes')
-  .onRun(async () => {
-    const userBatches = await getUserBatches()
-
-    await Promise.all(
-      userBatches.map((users) =>
-        callCloudFunction('updateFeedBatch', { users })
-      )
-    )
-
-    console.log('updating category feed')
-
-    await Promise.all(
-      CATEGORY_LIST.map((category) =>
-        callCloudFunction('updateCategoryFeed', {
-          category,
-        })
-      )
-    )
-  })
-
-export const updateFeedBatch = functions.https.onCall(
-  async (data: { users: User[] }) => {
-    const { users } = data
-    const contracts = await getFeedContracts()
-    const feeds = await getNewFeeds(users, contracts)
-    await Promise.all(
-      zip(users, feeds).map(([user, feed]) =>
-        /* eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-non-null-assertion */
-        getUserCacheCollection(user!).doc('feed').set({ feed })
-      )
-    )
-  }
-)
-
-export const updateCategoryFeed = functions.https.onCall(
-  async (data: { category: string }) => {
-    const { category } = data
-    const userBatches = await getUserBatches()
-
-    await Promise.all(
-      userBatches.map(async (users) => {
-        await callCloudFunction('updateCategoryFeedBatch', {
-          users,
-          category,
-        })
-      })
-    )
-  }
-)
-
-export const updateCategoryFeedBatch = functions.https.onCall(
-  async (data: { users: User[]; category: string }) => {
-    const { users, category } = data
-    const contracts = await getTaggedContracts(category)
-    const feeds = await getNewFeeds(users, contracts)
-    await Promise.all(
-      zip(users, feeds).map(([user, feed]) =>
-        /* eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-non-null-assertion */
-        getUserCacheCollection(user!).doc(`feed-${category}`).set({ feed })
-      )
-    )
-  }
-)
-
-const getNewFeeds = async (users: User[], contracts: Contract[]) => {
-  const feeds = await Promise.all(users.map((u) => computeFeed(u, contracts)))
-  const contractIds = uniq(flatten(feeds).map((c) => c.id))
-  const data = await Promise.all(contractIds.map(getRecentBetsAndComments))
-  const dataByContractId = zipObject(contractIds, data)
-  return feeds.map((feed) =>
-    feed.map((contract) => {
-      return { contract, ...dataByContractId[contract.id] }
-    })
-  )
-}
-
-const getUserCacheCollection = (user: User) =>
-  firestore.collection(`private-users/${user.id}/cache`)
-
-export const computeFeed = async (user: User, contracts: Contract[]) => {
-  const userCacheCollection = getUserCacheCollection(user)
-
-  const [wordScores, lastViewedTime] = await Promise.all([
-    getValue<{ [word: string]: number }>(userCacheCollection.doc('wordScores')),
-    getValue<{ [contractId: string]: number }>(
-      userCacheCollection.doc('lastViewTime')
-    ),
-  ]).then((dicts) => dicts.map((dict) => dict ?? {}))
-
-  const scoredContracts = contracts.map((contract) => {
-    const score = scoreContract(
-      contract,
-      wordScores,
-      lastViewedTime[contract.id]
-    )
-    return [contract, score] as [Contract, number]
-  })
-
-  const sortedContracts = sortBy(
-    scoredContracts,
-    ([_, score]) => score
-  ).reverse()
-
-  // console.log(sortedContracts.map(([c, score]) => c.question + ': ' + score))
-
-  return sortedContracts.slice(0, MAX_FEED_CONTRACTS).map(([c]) => c)
-}
-
-function scoreContract(
-  contract: Contract,
-  wordScores: { [word: string]: number },
-  viewTime: number | undefined
-) {
-  const recommendationScore = getContractScore(contract, wordScores)
-  const activityScore = getActivityScore(contract, viewTime)
-  // const lastViewedScore = getLastViewedScore(viewTime)
-  return recommendationScore * activityScore
-}
-
-function getActivityScore(contract: Contract, viewTime: number | undefined) {
-  const { createdTime, lastBetTime, lastCommentTime, outcomeType } = contract
-  const hasNewComments =
-    lastCommentTime && (!viewTime || lastCommentTime > viewTime)
-  const newCommentScore = hasNewComments ? 1 : 0.5
-
-  const timeSinceLastComment = Date.now() - (lastCommentTime ?? createdTime)
-  const commentDaysAgo = timeSinceLastComment / DAY_MS
-  const commentTimeScore =
-    0.25 + 0.75 * (1 - logInterpolation(0, 3, commentDaysAgo))
-
-  const timeSinceLastBet = Date.now() - (lastBetTime ?? createdTime)
-  const betDaysAgo = timeSinceLastBet / DAY_MS
-  const betTimeScore = 0.5 + 0.5 * (1 - logInterpolation(0, 3, betDaysAgo))
-
-  let prob = 0.5
-  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
-    prob = getProbability(contract)
-  } else if (outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
-    const topAnswer = getTopAnswer(contract)
-    if (topAnswer)
-      prob = Math.max(0.5, getOutcomeProbability(contract, topAnswer.id))
-  }
-  const frac = 1 - Math.abs(prob - 0.5) ** 2 / 0.25
-  const probScore = 0.5 + frac * 0.5
-
-  const { volume24Hours, volume7Days } = contract
-  const combinedVolume = Math.log(volume24Hours + 1) + Math.log(volume7Days + 1)
-  const volumeScore = 0.5 + 0.5 * logInterpolation(4, 20, combinedVolume)
-
-  const score =
-    newCommentScore * commentTimeScore * betTimeScore * probScore * volumeScore
-
-  // Map score to [0.5, 1] since no recent activty is not a deal breaker.
-  const mappedScore = 0.5 + 0.5 * score
-  const newMappedScore = 0.7 + 0.3 * score
-
-  const isNew = Date.now() < contract.createdTime + DAY_MS
-  return isNew ? newMappedScore : mappedScore
-}
-
-// function getLastViewedScore(viewTime: number | undefined) {
-//   if (viewTime === undefined) {
-//     return 1
-//   }
-
-//   const daysAgo = (Date.now() - viewTime) / DAY_MS
-
-//   if (daysAgo < 0.5) {
-//     const frac = logInterpolation(0, 0.5, daysAgo)
-//     return 0.5 + 0.25 * frac
-//   }
-
-//   const frac = logInterpolation(0.5, 14, daysAgo)
-//   return 0.75 + 0.25 * frac
-// }

functions/src/update-recommendations.ts

@@ -1,70 +0,0 @@
-import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
-import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
-
-import { getValue, getValues } from './utils'
-import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
-import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
-import { User } from '../../common/user'
-import { ClickEvent } from '../../common/tracking'
-import { getWordScores } from '../../common/recommended-contracts'
-import { batchedWaitAll } from '../../common/util/promise'
-import { callCloudFunction } from './call-cloud-function'
-
-const firestore = admin.firestore()
-
-export const updateRecommendations = functions.pubsub
-  .schedule('every 24 hours')
-  .onRun(async () => {
-    const users = await getValues<User>(firestore.collection('users'))
-
-    const batchSize = 100
-    const userBatches: User[][] = []
-    for (let i = 0; i < users.length; i += batchSize) {
-      userBatches.push(users.slice(i, i + batchSize))
-    }
-
-    await Promise.all(
-      userBatches.map((batch) =>
-        callCloudFunction('updateRecommendationsBatch', { users: batch })
-      )
-    )
-  })
-
-export const updateRecommendationsBatch = functions.https.onCall(
-  async (data: { users: User[] }) => {
-    const { users } = data
-
-    const contracts = await getValues<Contract>(
-      firestore.collection('contracts')
-    )
-
-    await batchedWaitAll(
-      users.map((user) => () => updateWordScores(user, contracts))
-    )
-  }
-)
-
-export const updateWordScores = async (user: User, contracts: Contract[]) => {
-  const [bets, viewCounts, clicks] = await Promise.all([
-    getValues<Bet>(
-      firestore.collectionGroup('bets').where('userId', '==', user.id)
-    ),
-
-    getValue<{ [contractId: string]: number }>(
-      firestore.doc(`private-users/${user.id}/cache/viewCounts`)
-    ),
-
-    getValues<ClickEvent>(
-      firestore
-        .collection(`private-users/${user.id}/events`)
-        .where('type', '==', 'click')
-    ),
-  ])
-
-  const wordScores = getWordScores(contracts, viewCounts ?? {}, clicks, bets)
-
-  const cachedCollection = firestore.collection(
-    `private-users/${user.id}/cache`
-  )
-  await cachedCollection.doc('wordScores').set(wordScores)
-}

web/components/bet-panel.tsx

@@ -3,7 +3,11 @@ import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import { partition, sumBy } from 'lodash'
 
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
-import { BinaryContract, CPMMBinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import {
+  BinaryContract,
+  CPMMBinaryContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
+} from 'common/contract'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
@@ -21,7 +25,7 @@ import { APIError, placeBet } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { sellShares } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { AmountInput, BuyAmountInput } from './amount-input'
 import { InfoTooltip } from './info-tooltip'
-import { BinaryOutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
+import { BinaryOutcomeLabel, PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
 import {
   calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet,
   calculateShares,
@@ -35,6 +39,7 @@ import {
   getCpmmProbability,
   getCpmmLiquidityFee,
 } from 'common/calculate-cpmm'
+import { getFormattedMappedValue } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 import { SellRow } from './sell-row'
 import { useSaveShares } from './use-save-shares'
 import { SignUpPrompt } from './sign-up-prompt'
@@ -42,7 +47,7 @@ import { isIOS } from 'web/lib/util/device'
 import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
 
 export function BetPanel(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
 }) {
   const { contract, className } = props
@@ -81,7 +86,7 @@ export function BetPanel(props: {
 }
 
 export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
   title?: string // Set if BetPanel is on a feed modal
   selected?: 'YES' | 'NO'
@@ -89,7 +94,8 @@ export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, className, title, selected, onBetSuccess } = props
 
-  const { mechanism } = contract
+  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const user = useUser()
   const userBets = useUserContractBets(user?.id, contract.id)
@@ -122,7 +128,12 @@ export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
           <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-2">
             <div>
               You have {formatWithCommas(floorShares)}{' '}
-              <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={sharesOutcome} /> shares
+              {isPseudoNumeric ? (
+                <PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel outcome={sharesOutcome} />
+              ) : (
+                <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={sharesOutcome} />
+              )}{' '}
+              shares
             </div>
 
             {tradeType === 'BUY' && (
@@ -190,12 +201,13 @@ export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
 }
 
 function BuyPanel(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   user: User | null | undefined
   selected?: 'YES' | 'NO'
   onBuySuccess?: () => void
 }) {
   const { contract, user, selected, onBuySuccess } = props
+  const isPseudoNumeric = contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const [betChoice, setBetChoice] = useState<'YES' | 'NO' | undefined>(selected)
   const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState<number | undefined>(undefined)
@@ -302,6 +314,9 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
               : 0)
         )} ${betChoice ?? 'YES'} shares`
       : undefined
+
+  const format = getFormattedMappedValue(contract)
+
   return (
     <>
       <YesNoSelector
@@ -309,6 +324,7 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
         btnClassName="flex-1"
         selected={betChoice}
         onSelect={(choice) => onBetChoice(choice)}
+        isPseudoNumeric={isPseudoNumeric}
       />
       <div className="my-3 text-left text-sm text-gray-500">Amount</div>
       <BuyAmountInput
@@ -323,11 +339,13 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
 
       <Col className="mt-3 w-full gap-3">
         <Row className="items-center justify-between text-sm">
-          <div className="text-gray-500">Probability</div>
+          <div className="text-gray-500">
+            {isPseudoNumeric ? 'Estimated value' : 'Probability'}
+          </div>
           <div>
-            {formatPercent(initialProb)}
+            {format(initialProb)}
             <span className="mx-2">→</span>
-            {formatPercent(resultProb)}
+            {format(resultProb)}
           </div>
         </Row>
 
@@ -340,6 +358,8 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
                   <br /> payout if{' '}
                   <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={betChoice ?? 'YES'} />
                 </>
+              ) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
+                'Max payout'
               ) : (
                 <>
                   Payout if <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={betChoice ?? 'YES'} />
@@ -389,7 +409,7 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
 }
 
 export function SellPanel(props: {
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   userBets: Bet[]
   shares: number
   sharesOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
@@ -488,6 +508,10 @@ export function SellPanel(props: {
     }
   }
 
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+  const format = getFormattedMappedValue(contract)
+
   return (
     <>
       <AmountInput
@@ -511,11 +535,13 @@ export function SellPanel(props: {
           <span className="text-neutral">{formatMoney(saleValue)}</span>
         </Row>
         <Row className="items-center justify-between">
-          <div className="text-gray-500">Probability</div>
+          <div className="text-gray-500">
+            {isPseudoNumeric ? 'Estimated value' : 'Probability'}
+          </div>
           <div>
-            {formatPercent(initialProb)}
+            {format(initialProb)}
             <span className="mx-2">→</span>
-            {formatPercent(resultProb)}
+            {format(resultProb)}
           </div>
         </Row>
       </Col>

web/components/bet-row.tsx

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 
 import { BetPanelSwitcher } from './bet-panel'
 import { YesNoSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { Modal } from './layout/modal'
 import { SellButton } from './sell-button'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ import { useSaveShares } from './use-save-shares'
 
 // Inline version of a bet panel. Opens BetPanel in a new modal.
 export default function BetRow(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
   btnClassName?: string
   betPanelClassName?: string
@@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ export default function BetRow(props: {
   return (
     <>
       <YesNoSelector
+        isPseudoNumeric={contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'}
         className={clsx('justify-end', className)}
         btnClassName={clsx('btn-sm w-24', btnClassName)}
         onSelect={(choice) => {

web/components/bets-list.tsx

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { useUserBets } from 'web/hooks/use-user-bets'
 import { Bet } from 'web/lib/firebase/bets'
 import { User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import {
+  formatLargeNumber,
   formatMoney,
   formatPercent,
   formatWithCommas,
@@ -40,6 +41,7 @@ import {
 import { useTimeSinceFirstRender } from 'web/hooks/use-time-since-first-render'
 import { trackLatency } from 'web/lib/firebase/tracking'
 import { NumericContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
 
@@ -366,6 +368,7 @@ export function BetsSummary(props: {
   const { contract, isYourBets, className } = props
   const { resolution, closeTime, outcomeType, mechanism } = contract
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
   const isCpmm = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
   const isClosed = closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
 
@@ -427,6 +430,25 @@ export function BetsSummary(props: {
                   </div>
                 </Col>
               </>
+            ) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
+              <>
+                <Col>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
+                    Payout if {'>='} {formatLargeNumber(contract.max)}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+                    {formatMoney(yesWinnings)}
+                  </div>
+                </Col>
+                <Col>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
+                    Payout if {'<='} {formatLargeNumber(contract.min)}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+                    {formatMoney(noWinnings)}
+                  </div>
+                </Col>
+              </>
             ) : (
               <Col>
                 <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
@@ -507,13 +529,15 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
   const { isResolved, mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
   const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
   const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   return (
     <div className={clsx('overflow-x-auto', className)}>
       {amountRedeemed > 0 && (
         <>
           <div className="pl-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
-            {amountRedeemed} YES shares and {amountRedeemed} NO shares
+            {amountRedeemed} {isPseudoNumeric ? 'HIGHER' : 'YES'} shares and{' '}
+            {amountRedeemed} {isPseudoNumeric ? 'LOWER' : 'NO'} shares
             automatically redeemed for {formatMoney(amountRedeemed)}.
           </div>
           <Spacer h={4} />
@@ -541,7 +565,7 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
             )}
             {!isCPMM && !isResolved && <th>Payout if chosen</th>}
             <th>Shares</th>
-            <th>Probability</th>
+            {!isPseudoNumeric && <th>Probability</th>}
             <th>Date</th>
           </tr>
         </thead>
@@ -585,6 +609,7 @@ function BetRow(props: {
 
   const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
   const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const saleAmount = saleBet?.sale?.amount
 
@@ -628,14 +653,18 @@ function BetRow(props: {
             truncate="short"
           />
         )}
+        {isPseudoNumeric &&
+          ' than ' + formatNumericProbability(bet.probAfter, contract)}
       </td>
       <td>{formatMoney(Math.abs(amount))}</td>
       {!isCPMM && !isNumeric && <td>{saleDisplay}</td>}
       {!isCPMM && !isResolved && <td>{payoutIfChosenDisplay}</td>}
       <td>{formatWithCommas(Math.abs(shares))}</td>
+      {!isPseudoNumeric && (
         <td>
           {formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
         </td>
+      )}
       <td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
     </tr>
   )

web/components/contract-search.tsx

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import {
   useSortBy,
 } from 'react-instantsearch-hooks-web'
 
-import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
+import { Contract } from 'common/contract'
 import {
   Sort,
   useInitialQueryAndSort,
@@ -58,15 +58,24 @@ export function ContractSearch(props: {
   additionalFilter?: {
     creatorId?: string
     tag?: string
+    excludeContractIds?: string[]
   }
   showCategorySelector: boolean
   onContractClick?: (contract: Contract) => void
+  showPlaceHolder?: boolean
+  hideOrderSelector?: boolean
+  overrideGridClassName?: string
+  hideQuickBet?: boolean
 }) {
   const {
     querySortOptions,
     additionalFilter,
     showCategorySelector,
     onContractClick,
+    overrideGridClassName,
+    hideOrderSelector,
+    showPlaceHolder,
+    hideQuickBet,
   } = props
 
   const user = useUser()
@@ -136,6 +145,7 @@ export function ContractSearch(props: {
       <Row className="gap-1 sm:gap-2">
         <SearchBox
           className="flex-1"
+          placeholder={showPlaceHolder ? `Search ${filter} contracts` : ''}
           classNames={{
             form: 'before:top-6',
             input: '!pl-10 !input !input-bordered shadow-none w-[100px]',
@@ -153,6 +163,7 @@ export function ContractSearch(props: {
           <option value="resolved">Resolved</option>
           <option value="all">All</option>
         </select>
+        {!hideOrderSelector && (
           <SortBy
             items={sortIndexes}
             classNames={{
@@ -160,6 +171,7 @@ export function ContractSearch(props: {
             }}
             onBlur={trackCallback('select search sort')}
           />
+        )}
         <Configure
           facetFilters={filters}
           numericFilters={numericFilters}
@@ -187,6 +199,9 @@ export function ContractSearch(props: {
         <ContractSearchInner
           querySortOptions={querySortOptions}
           onContractClick={onContractClick}
+          overrideGridClassName={overrideGridClassName}
+          hideQuickBet={hideQuickBet}
+          excludeContractIds={additionalFilter?.excludeContractIds}
         />
       )}
     </InstantSearch>
@@ -199,8 +214,17 @@ export function ContractSearchInner(props: {
     shouldLoadFromStorage?: boolean
   }
   onContractClick?: (contract: Contract) => void
+  overrideGridClassName?: string
+  hideQuickBet?: boolean
+  excludeContractIds?: string[]
 }) {
-  const { querySortOptions, onContractClick } = props
+  const {
+    querySortOptions,
+    onContractClick,
+    overrideGridClassName,
+    hideQuickBet,
+    excludeContractIds,
+  } = props
   const { initialQuery } = useInitialQueryAndSort(querySortOptions)
 
   const { query, setQuery, setSort } = useUpdateQueryAndSort({
@@ -239,7 +263,7 @@ export function ContractSearchInner(props: {
   }, [])
 
   const { showMore, hits, isLastPage } = useInfiniteHits()
-  const contracts = hits as any as Contract[]
+  let contracts = hits as any as Contract[]
 
   if (isInitialLoad && contracts.length === 0) return <></>
 
@@ -249,6 +273,9 @@ export function ContractSearchInner(props: {
     ? 'resolve-date'
     : undefined
 
+  if (excludeContractIds)
+    contracts = contracts.filter((c) => !excludeContractIds.includes(c.id))
+
   return (
     <ContractsGrid
       contracts={contracts}
@@ -256,6 +283,8 @@ export function ContractSearchInner(props: {
       hasMore={!isLastPage}
       showTime={showTime}
       onContractClick={onContractClick}
+      overrideGridClassName={overrideGridClassName}
+      hideQuickBet={hideQuickBet}
     />
   )
 }

web/components/contract/contract-card.tsx

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import {
   BinaryContract,
   FreeResponseContract,
   NumericContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
 } from 'common/contract'
 import {
   AnswerLabel,
@@ -16,7 +17,11 @@ import {
   CancelLabel,
   FreeResponseOutcomeLabel,
 } from '../outcome-label'
-import { getOutcomeProbability, getTopAnswer } from 'common/calculate'
+import {
+  getOutcomeProbability,
+  getProbability,
+  getTopAnswer,
+} from 'common/calculate'
 import { AvatarDetails, MiscDetails, ShowTime } from './contract-details'
 import { getExpectedValue, getValueFromBucket } from 'common/calculate-dpm'
 import { QuickBet, ProbBar, getColor } from './quick-bet'
@@ -24,6 +29,7 @@ import { useContractWithPreload } from 'web/hooks/use-contract'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { track } from '@amplitude/analytics-browser'
 import { trackCallback } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 export function ContractCard(props: {
   contract: Contract
@@ -131,6 +137,13 @@ export function ContractCard(props: {
                 />
               )}
 
+              {outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && (
+                <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation
+                  className="items-center"
+                  contract={contract}
+                />
+              )}
+
               {outcomeType === 'NUMERIC' && (
                 <NumericResolutionOrExpectation
                   className="items-center"
@@ -270,7 +283,9 @@ export function NumericResolutionOrExpectation(props: {
           {resolution === 'CANCEL' ? (
             <CancelLabel />
           ) : (
-            <div className="text-blue-400">{resolutionValue}</div>
+            <div className="text-blue-400">
+              {formatLargeNumber(resolutionValue)}
+            </div>
           )}
         </>
       ) : (
@@ -284,3 +299,42 @@ export function NumericResolutionOrExpectation(props: {
     </Col>
   )
 }
+
+export function PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation(props: {
+  contract: PseudoNumericContract
+  className?: string
+}) {
+  const { contract, className } = props
+  const { resolution, resolutionValue, resolutionProbability } = contract
+  const textColor = `text-blue-400`
+
+  return (
+    <Col className={clsx(resolution ? 'text-3xl' : 'text-xl', className)}>
+      {resolution ? (
+        <>
+          <div className={clsx('text-base text-gray-500')}>Resolved</div>
+
+          {resolution === 'CANCEL' ? (
+            <CancelLabel />
+          ) : (
+            <div className="text-blue-400">
+              {resolutionValue
+                ? formatLargeNumber(resolutionValue)
+                : formatNumericProbability(
+                    resolutionProbability ?? 0,
+                    contract
+                  )}
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </>
+      ) : (
+        <>
+          <div className={clsx('text-3xl', textColor)}>
+            {formatNumericProbability(getProbability(contract), contract)}
+          </div>
+          <div className={clsx('text-base', textColor)}>expected</div>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}

web/components/contract/contract-details.tsx

@@ -130,9 +130,32 @@ export function ContractDetails(props: {
   const { contract, bets, isCreator, disabled } = props
   const { closeTime, creatorName, creatorUsername, creatorId } = contract
   const { volumeLabel, resolvedDate } = contractMetrics(contract)
-  // Find a group that this contract id is in
+
-  const groups = useGroupsWithContract(contract.id)
+  const groups = (useGroupsWithContract(contract.id) ?? []).sort((g1, g2) => {
+    return g2.createdTime - g1.createdTime
+  })
   const user = useUser()
+
+  const groupsUserIsMemberOf = groups
+    ? groups.filter((g) => g.memberIds.includes(contract.creatorId))
+    : []
+  const groupsUserIsCreatorOf = groups
+    ? groups.filter((g) => g.creatorId === contract.creatorId)
+    : []
+
+  // Priorities for which group the contract belongs to:
+  // In order of created most recently
+  // Group that the contract owner created
+  // Group the contract owner is a member of
+  // Any group the contract is in
+  const groupToDisplay =
+    groupsUserIsCreatorOf.length > 0
+      ? groupsUserIsCreatorOf[0]
+      : groupsUserIsMemberOf.length > 0
+      ? groupsUserIsMemberOf[0]
+      : groups
+      ? groups[0]
+      : undefined
   return (
     <Row className="flex-1 flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
       <Row className="items-center gap-2">
@@ -153,14 +176,15 @@ export function ContractDetails(props: {
         )}
         {!disabled && <UserFollowButton userId={creatorId} small />}
       </Row>
-      {/*// TODO: we can add contracts to multiple groups but only show the first it was added to*/}
+      {groupToDisplay ? (
-      {groups && groups.length > 0 && (
         <Row className={'line-clamp-1 mt-1 max-w-[200px]'}>
-          <SiteLink href={`${groupPath(groups[0].slug)}`}>
+          <SiteLink href={`${groupPath(groupToDisplay.slug)}`}>
             <UserGroupIcon className="mx-1 mb-1 inline h-5 w-5" />
-            <span>{groups[0].name}</span>
+            <span>{groupToDisplay.name}</span>
           </SiteLink>
         </Row>
+      ) : (
+        <div />
       )}
 
       {(!!closeTime || !!resolvedDate) && (

web/components/contract/contract-overview.tsx

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ import {
   FreeResponseResolutionOrChance,
   BinaryResolutionOrChance,
   NumericResolutionOrExpectation,
+  PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation,
 } from './contract-card'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import BetRow from '../bet-row'
@@ -32,6 +33,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
   const user = useUser()
   const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   return (
     <Col className={clsx('mb-6', className)}>
@@ -49,6 +51,13 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
             />
           )}
 
+          {isPseudoNumeric && (
+            <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation
+              contract={contract}
+              className="hidden items-end xl:flex"
+            />
+          )}
+
           {outcomeType === 'NUMERIC' && (
             <NumericResolutionOrExpectation
               contract={contract}
@@ -61,6 +70,11 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
           <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-4 xl:hidden">
             <BinaryResolutionOrChance contract={contract} />
 
+            {tradingAllowed(contract) && <BetRow contract={contract} />}
+          </Row>
+        ) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
+          <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-4 xl:hidden">
+            <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation contract={contract} />
             {tradingAllowed(contract) && <BetRow contract={contract} />}
           </Row>
         ) : (
@@ -86,7 +100,9 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
         />
       </Col>
       <Spacer h={4} />
-      {isBinary && <ContractProbGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />}{' '}
+      {(isBinary || isPseudoNumeric) && (
+        <ContractProbGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />
+      )}{' '}
       {outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' && (
         <AnswersGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />
       )}

web/components/contract/contract-prob-graph.tsx

@@ -5,16 +5,20 @@ import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { memo } from 'react'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import { getInitialProbability } from 'common/calculate'
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { useWindowSize } from 'web/hooks/use-window-size'
+import { getMappedValue } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
+import { formatLargeNumber } from 'common/util/format'
 
 export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   bets: Bet[]
   height?: number
 }) {
   const { contract, height } = props
-  const { resolutionTime, closeTime } = contract
+  const { resolutionTime, closeTime, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isLogScale = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && contract.isLogScale
 
   const bets = props.bets.filter((bet) => !bet.isAnte && !bet.isRedemption)
 
@@ -24,7 +28,10 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
     contract.createdTime,
     ...bets.map((bet) => bet.createdTime),
   ].map((time) => new Date(time))
-  const probs = [startProb, ...bets.map((bet) => bet.probAfter)]
+
+  const f = getMappedValue(contract)
+
+  const probs = [startProb, ...bets.map((bet) => bet.probAfter)].map(f)
 
   const isClosed = !!closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
   const latestTime = dayjs(
@@ -39,7 +46,11 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
   times.push(latestTime.toDate())
   probs.push(probs[probs.length - 1])
 
-  const yTickValues = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100]
+  const quartiles = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100]
+
+  const yTickValues = isBinary
+    ? quartiles
+    : quartiles.map((x) => x / 100).map(f)
 
   const { width } = useWindowSize()
 
@@ -55,9 +66,13 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
   const totalPoints = width ? (width > 800 ? 300 : 50) : 1
 
   const timeStep: number = latestTime.diff(startDate, 'ms') / totalPoints
+
   const points: { x: Date; y: number }[] = []
+  const s = isBinary ? 100 : 1
+  const c = isLogScale && contract.min === 0 ? 1 : 0
+
   for (let i = 0; i < times.length - 1; i++) {
-    points[points.length] = { x: times[i], y: probs[i] * 100 }
+    points[points.length] = { x: times[i], y: s * probs[i] + c }
     const numPoints: number = Math.floor(
       dayjs(times[i + 1]).diff(dayjs(times[i]), 'ms') / timeStep
     )
@@ -69,17 +84,23 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
           x: dayjs(times[i])
             .add(thisTimeStep * n, 'ms')
             .toDate(),
-          y: probs[i] * 100,
+          y: s * probs[i] + c,
         }
       }
     }
   }
 
-  const data = [{ id: 'Yes', data: points, color: '#11b981' }]
+  const data = [
+    { id: 'Yes', data: points, color: isBinary ? '#11b981' : '#5fa5f9' },
+  ]
 
   const multiYear = !dayjs(startDate).isSame(latestTime, 'year')
   const lessThanAWeek = dayjs(startDate).add(8, 'day').isAfter(latestTime)
 
+  const formatter = isBinary
+    ? formatPercent
+    : (x: DatumValue) => formatLargeNumber(+x.valueOf())
+
   return (
     <div
       className="w-full overflow-visible"
@@ -87,12 +108,20 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
     >
       <ResponsiveLine
         data={data}
-        yScale={{ min: 0, max: 100, type: 'linear' }}
+        yScale={
-        yFormat={formatPercent}
+          isBinary
+            ? { min: 0, max: 100, type: 'linear' }
+            : {
+                min: contract.min + c,
+                max: contract.max + c,
+                type: contract.isLogScale ? 'log' : 'linear',
+              }
+        }
+        yFormat={formatter}
         gridYValues={yTickValues}
         axisLeft={{
           tickValues: yTickValues,
-          format: formatPercent,
+          format: formatter,
         }}
         xScale={{
           type: 'time',

web/components/contract/quick-bet.tsx

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 import {
   getOutcomeProbability,
   getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet,
+  getProbability,
   getTopAnswer,
 } from 'common/calculate'
 import { getExpectedValue } from 'common/calculate-dpm'
@@ -25,18 +26,18 @@ import { useSaveShares } from '../use-save-shares'
 import { sellShares } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { calculateCpmmSale, getCpmmProbability } from 'common/calculate-cpmm'
 import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 const BET_SIZE = 10
 
 export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
   const { contract, user } = props
-  const isCpmm = contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
+  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isCpmm = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
 
   const userBets = useUserContractBets(user.id, contract.id)
   const topAnswer =
-    contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE'
+    outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' ? getTopAnswer(contract) : undefined
-      ? getTopAnswer(contract)
-      : undefined
 
   // TODO: yes/no from useSaveShares doesn't work on numeric contracts
   const { yesFloorShares, noFloorShares, yesShares, noShares } = useSaveShares(
@@ -45,9 +46,9 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
     topAnswer?.number.toString() || undefined
   )
   const hasUpShares =
-    yesFloorShares || (noFloorShares && contract.outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
+    yesFloorShares || (noFloorShares && outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
   const hasDownShares =
-    noFloorShares && yesFloorShares <= 0 && contract.outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC'
+    noFloorShares && yesFloorShares <= 0 && outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC'
 
   const [upHover, setUpHover] = useState(false)
   const [downHover, setDownHover] = useState(false)
@@ -130,25 +131,6 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
     })
   }
 
-  function quickOutcome(contract: Contract, direction: 'UP' | 'DOWN') {
-    if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
-      return direction === 'UP' ? 'YES' : 'NO'
-    }
-    if (contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
-      // TODO: Implement shorting of free response answers
-      if (direction === 'DOWN') {
-        throw new Error("Can't bet against free response answers")
-      }
-      return getTopAnswer(contract)?.id
-    }
-    if (contract.outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
-      // TODO: Ideally an 'UP' bet would be a uniform bet between [current, max]
-      throw new Error("Can't quick bet on numeric markets")
-    }
-  }
-
-  const textColor = `text-${getColor(contract)}`
-
   return (
     <Col
       className={clsx(
@@ -173,14 +155,14 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
           <TriangleFillIcon
             className={clsx(
               'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
-              upHover ? textColor : 'text-gray-400'
+              upHover ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-gray-400'
             )}
           />
         ) : (
           <TriangleFillIcon
             className={clsx(
               'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
-              upHover ? textColor : 'text-gray-200'
+              upHover ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-gray-200'
             )}
           />
         )}
@@ -189,7 +171,7 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
       <QuickOutcomeView contract={contract} previewProb={previewProb} />
 
       {/* Down bet triangle */}
-      {contract.outcomeType !== 'BINARY' ? (
+      {outcomeType !== 'BINARY' && outcomeType !== 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' ? (
         <div>
           <div className="peer absolute bottom-0 left-0 right-0 h-[50%] cursor-default"></div>
           <TriangleDownFillIcon
@@ -254,6 +236,25 @@ export function ProbBar(props: { contract: Contract; previewProb?: number }) {
   )
 }
 
+function quickOutcome(contract: Contract, direction: 'UP' | 'DOWN') {
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
+
+  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
+    return direction === 'UP' ? 'YES' : 'NO'
+  }
+  if (outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
+    // TODO: Implement shorting of free response answers
+    if (direction === 'DOWN') {
+      throw new Error("Can't bet against free response answers")
+    }
+    return getTopAnswer(contract)?.id
+  }
+  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
+    // TODO: Ideally an 'UP' bet would be a uniform bet between [current, max]
+    throw new Error("Can't quick bet on numeric markets")
+  }
+}
+
 function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
   contract: Contract
   previewProb?: number
@@ -261,9 +262,16 @@ function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, previewProb, caption } = props
   const { outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+
   // If there's a preview prob, display that instead of the current prob
   const override =
-    previewProb === undefined ? undefined : formatPercent(previewProb)
+    previewProb === undefined
+      ? undefined
+      : isPseudoNumeric
+      ? formatNumericProbability(previewProb, contract)
+      : formatPercent(previewProb)
+
   const textColor = `text-${getColor(contract)}`
 
   let display: string | undefined
@@ -271,6 +279,9 @@ function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
     case 'BINARY':
       display = getBinaryProbPercent(contract)
       break
+    case 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC':
+      display = formatNumericProbability(getProbability(contract), contract)
+      break
     case 'NUMERIC':
       display = formatLargeNumber(getExpectedValue(contract))
       break
@@ -295,11 +306,15 @@ function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
 // Return a number from 0 to 1 for this contract
 // Resolved contracts are set to 1, for coloring purposes (even if NO)
 function getProb(contract: Contract) {
-  const { outcomeType, resolution } = contract
+  const { outcomeType, resolution, resolutionProbability } = contract
-  return resolution
+  return resolutionProbability
+    ? resolutionProbability
+    : resolution
     ? 1
     : outcomeType === 'BINARY'
     ? getBinaryProb(contract)
+    : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+    ? getProbability(contract)
     : outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE'
     ? getOutcomeProbability(contract, getTopAnswer(contract)?.id || '')
     : outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
@@ -316,7 +331,8 @@ function getNumericScale(contract: NumericContract) {
 export function getColor(contract: Contract) {
   // TODO: Try injecting a gradient here
   // return 'primary'
-  const { resolution } = contract
+  const { resolution, outcomeType } = contract
+
   if (resolution) {
     return (
       OUTCOME_TO_COLOR[resolution as resolution] ??
@@ -325,6 +341,8 @@ export function getColor(contract: Contract) {
     )
   }
 
+  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') return 'blue-400'
+
   if ((contract.closeTime ?? Infinity) < Date.now()) {
     return 'gray-400'
   }

web/components/feed/feed-bets.tsx

@@ -7,13 +7,14 @@ import { Row } from 'web/components/layout/row'
 import { Avatar, EmptyAvatar } from 'web/components/avatar'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { UsersIcon } from '@heroicons/react/solid'
-import { formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
+import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from 'common/util/format'
 import { OutcomeLabel } from 'web/components/outcome-label'
 import { RelativeTimestamp } from 'web/components/relative-timestamp'
 import React, { Fragment } from 'react'
 import { uniqBy, partition, sumBy, groupBy } from 'lodash'
 import { JoinSpans } from 'web/components/join-spans'
 import { UserLink } from '../user-page'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 export function FeedBet(props: {
   contract: Contract
@@ -75,6 +76,8 @@ export function BetStatusText(props: {
   hideOutcome?: boolean
 }) {
   const { bet, contract, bettor, isSelf, hideOutcome } = props
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
   const { amount, outcome, createdTime } = bet
 
   const bought = amount >= 0 ? 'bought' : 'sold'
@@ -97,7 +100,10 @@ export function BetStatusText(props: {
             value={(bet as any).value}
             contract={contract}
             truncate="short"
-          />
+          />{' '}
+          {isPseudoNumeric
+            ? ' than ' + formatNumericProbability(bet.probAfter, contract)
+            : ' at ' + formatPercent(bet.probAfter)}
         </>
       )}
       <RelativeTimestamp time={createdTime} />

web/components/groups/edit-group-button.tsx

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
 import { Modal } from 'web/components/layout/modal'
 import { FilterSelectUsers } from 'web/components/filter-select-users'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
+import { uniq } from 'lodash'
 
 export function EditGroupButton(props: { group: Group; className?: string }) {
   const { group, className } = props
@@ -35,7 +36,7 @@ export function EditGroupButton(props: { group: Group; className?: string }) {
     await updateGroup(group, {
       name,
       about,
-      memberIds: [...memberIds, ...addMemberUsers.map((user) => user.id)],
+      memberIds: uniq([...memberIds, ...addMemberUsers.map((user) => user.id)]),
     })
 
     setIsSubmitting(false)

web/components/groups/groups-button.tsx

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import { TextButton } from 'web/components/text-button'
 import { Group } from 'common/group'
 import { Modal } from 'web/components/layout/modal'
 import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col'
-import { joinGroup, leaveGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
+import { addUserToGroup, leaveGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
 import { firebaseLogin } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import { GroupLink } from 'web/pages/groups'
 
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ export function JoinOrLeaveGroupButton(props: {
     : false
   const onJoinGroup = () => {
     if (!currentUser) return
-    joinGroup(group, currentUser.id)
+    addUserToGroup(group, currentUser.id)
   }
   const onLeaveGroup = () => {
     if (!currentUser) return

web/components/layout/modal.tsx

@@ -1,13 +1,15 @@
 import { Fragment, ReactNode } from 'react'
 import { Dialog, Transition } from '@headlessui/react'
+import clsx from 'clsx'
 
 // From https://tailwindui.com/components/application-ui/overlays/modals
 export function Modal(props: {
   children: ReactNode
   open: boolean
   setOpen: (open: boolean) => void
+  className?: string
 }) {
-  const { children, open, setOpen } = props
+  const { children, open, setOpen, className } = props
 
   return (
     <Transition.Root show={open} as={Fragment}>
@@ -45,7 +47,12 @@ export function Modal(props: {
             leaveFrom="opacity-100 translate-y-0 sm:scale-100"
             leaveTo="opacity-0 translate-y-4 sm:translate-y-0 sm:scale-95"
           >
-            <div className="inline-block transform overflow-hidden text-left align-bottom transition-all sm:my-8 sm:w-full sm:max-w-md sm:p-6 sm:align-middle">
+            <div
+              className={clsx(
+                'inline-block transform overflow-hidden text-left align-bottom transition-all sm:my-8 sm:w-full sm:max-w-md sm:p-6 sm:align-middle',
+                className
+              )}
+            >
               {children}
             </div>
           </Transition.Child>

web/components/layout/tabs.tsx

@@ -14,16 +14,16 @@ type Tab = {
 export function Tabs(props: {
   tabs: Tab[]
   defaultIndex?: number
-  className?: string
+  labelClassName?: string
   onClick?: (tabTitle: string, index: number) => void
 }) {
-  const { tabs, defaultIndex, className, onClick } = props
+  const { tabs, defaultIndex, labelClassName, onClick } = props
   const [activeIndex, setActiveIndex] = useState(defaultIndex ?? 0)
   const activeTab = tabs[activeIndex] as Tab | undefined // can be undefined in weird case
 
   return (
-    <div>
+    <>
-      <div className="border-b border-gray-200">
+      <div className="mb-4 border-b border-gray-200">
         <nav className="-mb-px flex space-x-8" aria-label="Tabs">
           {tabs.map((tab, i) => (
             <Link href={tab.href ?? '#'} key={tab.title} shallow={!!tab.href}>
@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ export function Tabs(props: {
                     ? 'border-indigo-500 text-indigo-600'
                     : 'border-transparent text-gray-500 hover:border-gray-300 hover:text-gray-700',
                   'cursor-pointer whitespace-nowrap border-b-2 py-3 px-1 text-sm font-medium',
-                  className
+                  labelClassName
                 )}
                 aria-current={activeIndex === i ? 'page' : undefined}
               >
@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ export function Tabs(props: {
         </nav>
       </div>
 
-      <div className="mt-4">{activeTab?.content}</div>
+      {activeTab?.content}
-    </div>
+    </>
   )
 }

web/components/nav/sidebar.tsx

@@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ function GroupsList(props: { currentPage: string; memberItems: Item[] }) {
       <div className="mt-1 space-y-0.5">
         {memberItems.map((item) => (
           <a
-            key={item.name}
+            key={item.href}
             href={item.href}
             className="group flex items-center rounded-md px-3 py-2 text-sm font-medium text-gray-600 hover:bg-gray-100 hover:text-gray-900"
           >

web/components/numeric-resolution-panel.tsx

@@ -6,13 +6,14 @@ import { User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import { NumberCancelSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { ResolveConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
+import { NumericContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { APIError, resolveMarket } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
-import { NumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { BucketInput } from './bucket-input'
+import { getPseudoProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
   creator: User
-  contract: NumericContract
+  contract: NumericContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
 }) {
   useEffect(() => {
@@ -21,6 +22,7 @@ export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
   }, [])
 
   const { contract, className } = props
+  const { min, max, outcomeType } = contract
 
   const [outcomeMode, setOutcomeMode] = useState<
     'NUMBER' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
@@ -32,15 +34,32 @@ export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
 
   const resolve = async () => {
-    const finalOutcome = outcomeMode === 'NUMBER' ? outcome : 'CANCEL'
+    const finalOutcome =
+      outcomeMode === 'CANCEL'
+        ? 'CANCEL'
+        : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+        ? 'MKT'
+        : 'NUMBER'
     if (outcomeMode === undefined || finalOutcome === undefined) return
 
     setIsSubmitting(true)
 
+    const boundedValue = Math.max(Math.min(max, value ?? 0), min)
+
+    const probabilityInt =
+      100 *
+      getPseudoProbability(
+        boundedValue,
+        min,
+        max,
+        outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && contract.isLogScale
+      )
+
     try {
       const result = await resolveMarket({
         outcome: finalOutcome,
         value,
+        probabilityInt,
         contractId: contract.id,
       })
       console.log('resolved', outcome, 'result:', result)
@@ -77,7 +96,7 @@ export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
 
       {outcomeMode === 'NUMBER' && (
         <BucketInput
-          contract={contract}
+          contract={contract as any}
           isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
           onBucketChange={(v, o) => (setValue(v), setOutcome(o))}
         />

web/components/outcome-label.tsx

@@ -19,11 +19,15 @@ export function OutcomeLabel(props: {
   value?: number
 }) {
   const { outcome, contract, truncate, value } = props
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
 
-  if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY')
+  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
+    return <PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel outcome={outcome as any} />
+
+  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY')
     return <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={outcome as any} />
 
-  if (contract.outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
+  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
     return (
       <span className="text-blue-500">
         {value ?? getValueFromBucket(outcome, contract)}
@@ -49,6 +53,15 @@ export function BinaryOutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: resolution }) {
   return <CancelLabel />
 }
 
+export function PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: resolution }) {
+  const { outcome } = props
+
+  if (outcome === 'YES') return <HigherLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'NO') return <LowerLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'MKT') return <ProbLabel />
+  return <CancelLabel />
+}
+
 export function BinaryContractOutcomeLabel(props: {
   contract: BinaryContract
   resolution: resolution
@@ -98,6 +111,14 @@ export function YesLabel() {
   return <span className="text-primary">YES</span>
 }
 
+export function HigherLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-primary">HIGHER</span>
+}
+
+export function LowerLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-red-400">LOWER</span>
+}
+
 export function NoLabel() {
   return <span className="text-red-400">NO</span>
 }

web/components/portfolio/portfolio-value-graph.tsx

@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ export const PortfolioValueGraph = memo(function PortfolioValueGraph(props: {
         margin={{ top: 20, right: 28, bottom: 22, left: 60 }}
         xScale={{
           type: 'time',
-          min: points[0].x,
+          min: points[0]?.x,
           max: endDate,
         }}
         yScale={{
@@ -77,6 +77,7 @@ export const PortfolioValueGraph = memo(function PortfolioValueGraph(props: {
         enableGridY={true}
         enableSlices="x"
         animate={false}
+        yFormat={(value) => formatMoney(+value)}
       ></ResponsiveLine>
     </div>
   )

web/components/portfolio/portfolio-value-section.tsx

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ export const PortfolioValueSection = memo(
   }) {
     const { portfolioHistory } = props
     const lastPortfolioMetrics = last(portfolioHistory)
-    const [portfolioPeriod] = useState<Period>('allTime')
+    const [portfolioPeriod, setPortfolioPeriod] = useState<Period>('allTime')
 
     if (portfolioHistory.length === 0 || !lastPortfolioMetrics) {
       return <div> No portfolio history data yet </div>
@@ -33,9 +33,16 @@ export const PortfolioValueSection = memo(
               </div>
             </Col>
           </div>
-          {
+          <select
-            //TODO: enable day/week/monthly as data becomes available
+            className="select select-bordered self-start"
-          }
+            onChange={(e) => {
+              setPortfolioPeriod(e.target.value as Period)
+            }}
+          >
+            <option value="allTime">All time</option>
+            <option value="weekly">Weekly</option>
+            <option value="daily">Daily</option>
+          </select>
         </Row>
         <PortfolioValueGraph
           portfolioHistory={portfolioHistory}

web/components/sell-button.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { useUserContractBets } from 'web/hooks/use-user-bets'
 import { useState } from 'react'
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
 
 export function SellButton(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   user: User | null | undefined
   sharesOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | undefined
   shares: number
@@ -16,7 +16,8 @@ export function SellButton(props: {
   const { contract, user, sharesOutcome, shares, panelClassName } = props
   const userBets = useUserContractBets(user?.id, contract.id)
   const [showSellModal, setShowSellModal] = useState(false)
-  const { mechanism } = contract
+  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   if (sharesOutcome && user && mechanism === 'cpmm-1') {
     return (
@@ -32,7 +33,10 @@ export function SellButton(props: {
           )}
           onClick={() => setShowSellModal(true)}
         >
-          {'Sell ' + sharesOutcome}
+          Sell{' '}
+          {isPseudoNumeric
+            ? { YES: 'HIGH', NO: 'LOW' }[sharesOutcome]
+            : sharesOutcome}
         </button>
         <div className={'mt-1 w-24 text-center text-sm text-gray-500'}>
           {'(' + Math.floor(shares) + ' shares)'}

web/components/sell-modal.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { CPMMBinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { CPMMBinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { Modal } from './layout/modal'
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 
 export function SellSharesModal(props: {
   className?: string
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   userBets: Bet[]
   shares: number
   sharesOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO'

web/components/sell-row.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { useState } from 'react'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ import { useSaveShares } from './use-save-shares'
 import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
 
 export function SellRow(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   user: User | null | undefined
   className?: string
 }) {

web/components/user-page.tsx

@@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ import { FollowButton } from './follow-button'
 import { PortfolioMetrics } from 'common/user'
 import { ReferralsButton } from 'web/components/referrals-button'
 import { GroupsButton } from 'web/components/groups/groups-button'
+import { PortfolioValueSection } from './portfolio/portfolio-value-section'
 
 export function UserLink(props: {
   name: string
@@ -75,7 +76,9 @@ export function UserPage(props: {
     'loading'
   )
   const [usersBets, setUsersBets] = useState<Bet[] | 'loading'>('loading')
-  const [, setUsersPortfolioHistory] = useState<PortfolioMetrics[]>([])
+  const [portfolioHistory, setUsersPortfolioHistory] = useState<
+    PortfolioMetrics[]
+  >([])
   const [commentsByContract, setCommentsByContract] = useState<
     Map<Contract, Comment[]> | 'loading'
   >('loading')
@@ -258,7 +261,7 @@ export function UserPage(props: {
 
         {usersContracts !== 'loading' && commentsByContract != 'loading' ? (
           <Tabs
-            className={'pb-2 pt-1 '}
+            labelClassName={'pb-2 pt-1 '}
             defaultIndex={
               defaultTabTitle ? TAB_IDS.indexOf(defaultTabTitle) : 0
             }
@@ -297,9 +300,9 @@ export function UserPage(props: {
                 title: 'Bets',
                 content: (
                   <div>
-                    {
+                    <PortfolioValueSection
-                      // TODO: add portfolio-value-section here
+                      portfolioHistory={portfolioHistory}
-                    }
+                    />
                     <BetsList
                       user={user}
                       hideBetsBefore={isCurrentUser ? 0 : JUNE_1_2022}

web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
   btnClassName?: string
   replaceYesButton?: React.ReactNode
   replaceNoButton?: React.ReactNode
+  isPseudoNumeric?: boolean
 }) {
   const {
     selected,
@@ -20,6 +21,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
     btnClassName,
     replaceNoButton,
     replaceYesButton,
+    isPseudoNumeric,
   } = props
 
   const commonClassNames =
@@ -41,7 +43,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
           )}
           onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
         >
-          Bet YES
+          {isPseudoNumeric ? 'HIGHER' : 'Bet YES'}
         </button>
       )}
       {replaceNoButton ? (
@@ -58,7 +60,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
           )}
           onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
         >
-          Bet NO
+          {isPseudoNumeric ? 'LOWER' : 'Bet NO'}
         </button>
       )}
     </Row>

web/hooks/use-group.ts

@@ -74,9 +74,7 @@ export function useMembers(group: Group) {
 }
 
 export async function listMembers(group: Group) {
-  return (await Promise.all(group.memberIds.map(getUser))).filter(
+  return await Promise.all(group.memberIds.map(getUser))
-    (user) => user
-  )
 }
 
 export const useGroupsWithContract = (contractId: string | undefined) => {

web/lib/firebase/groups.ts

@@ -102,10 +102,13 @@ export async function addUserToGroupViaSlug(groupSlug: string, userId: string) {
     console.error(`Group not found: ${groupSlug}`)
     return
   }
-  return await joinGroup(group, userId)
+  return await addUserToGroup(group, userId)
 }
 
-export async function joinGroup(group: Group, userId: string): Promise<Group> {
+export async function addUserToGroup(
+  group: Group,
+  userId: string
+): Promise<Group> {
   const { memberIds } = group
   if (memberIds.includes(userId)) {
     return group
@@ -125,3 +128,14 @@ export async function leaveGroup(group: Group, userId: string): Promise<Group> {
   await updateGroup(newGroup, { memberIds: uniq(newMemberIds) })
   return newGroup
 }
+
+export async function addContractToGroup(group: Group, contractId: string) {
+  return await updateGroup(group, {
+    contractIds: uniq([...group.contractIds, contractId]),
+  })
+    .then(() => group)
+    .catch((err) => {
+      console.error('error adding contract to group', err)
+      return err
+    })
+}

web/pages/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx

@@ -144,10 +144,12 @@ export function ContractPageContent(
 
   const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
   const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
   const allowTrade = tradingAllowed(contract)
   const allowResolve = !isResolved && isCreator && !!user
-  const hasSidePanel = (isBinary || isNumeric) && (allowTrade || allowResolve)
+  const hasSidePanel =
+    (isBinary || isNumeric || isPseudoNumeric) && (allowTrade || allowResolve)
 
   const ogCardProps = getOpenGraphProps(contract)
 
@@ -170,7 +172,7 @@ export function ContractPageContent(
           <BetPanel className="hidden xl:flex" contract={contract} />
         ))}
       {allowResolve &&
-        (isNumeric ? (
+        (isNumeric || isPseudoNumeric ? (
           <NumericResolutionPanel creator={user} contract={contract} />
         ) : (
           <ResolutionPanel creator={user} contract={contract} />
@@ -210,10 +212,11 @@ export function ContractPageContent(
         )}
 
         <ContractOverview contract={contract} bets={bets} />
+
         {isNumeric && (
           <AlertBox
             title="Warning"
-            text="Numeric markets were introduced as an experimental feature and are now deprecated."
+            text="Distributional numeric markets were introduced as an experimental feature and are now deprecated."
           />
         )}
 

web/pages/create.tsx

@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ import {
 import { formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
 import { removeUndefinedProps } from 'common/util/object'
 import { ChoicesToggleGroup } from 'web/components/choices-toggle-group'
-import { getGroup, updateGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
+import { addContractToGroup, getGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
 import { Group } from 'common/group'
 import { useTracking } from 'web/hooks/use-tracking'
 import { useWarnUnsavedChanges } from 'web/hooks/use-warn-unsaved-changes'
@@ -85,8 +85,12 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
   const { creator, question, groupId } = props
   const [outcomeType, setOutcomeType] = useState<outcomeType>('BINARY')
   const [initialProb] = useState(50)
+
   const [minString, setMinString] = useState('')
   const [maxString, setMaxString] = useState('')
+  const [isLogScale, setIsLogScale] = useState(false)
+  const [initialValueString, setInitialValueString] = useState('')
+
   const [description, setDescription] = useState('')
   // const [tagText, setTagText] = useState<string>(tag ?? '')
   // const tags = parseWordsAsTags(tagText)
@@ -129,6 +133,18 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
 
   const min = minString ? parseFloat(minString) : undefined
   const max = maxString ? parseFloat(maxString) : undefined
+  const initialValue = initialValueString
+    ? parseFloat(initialValueString)
+    : undefined
+
+  const adjustIsLog = () => {
+    if (min === undefined || max === undefined) return
+    const lengthDiff = Math.log10(max - min)
+    if (lengthDiff > 2) {
+      setIsLogScale(true)
+    }
+  }
+
   // get days from today until the end of this year:
   const daysLeftInTheYear = dayjs().endOf('year').diff(dayjs(), 'day')
 
@@ -145,13 +161,16 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
     // closeTime must be in the future
     closeTime &&
     closeTime > Date.now() &&
-    (outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC' ||
+    (outcomeType !== 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' ||
       (min !== undefined &&
         max !== undefined &&
+        initialValue !== undefined &&
         isFinite(min) &&
         isFinite(max) &&
         min < max &&
-        max - min > 0.01))
+        max - min > 0.01 &&
+        min < initialValue &&
+        initialValue < max))
 
   function setCloseDateInDays(days: number) {
     const newCloseDate = dayjs().add(days, 'day').format('YYYY-MM-DD')
@@ -175,6 +194,8 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
           closeTime,
           min,
           max,
+          initialValue,
+          isLogScale: (min ?? 0) < 0 ? false : isLogScale,
           groupId: selectedGroup?.id,
           tags: category ? [category] : undefined,
         })
@@ -186,9 +207,7 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
         isFree: false,
       })
       if (result && selectedGroup) {
-        await updateGroup(selectedGroup, {
+        await addContractToGroup(selectedGroup, result.id)
-          contractIds: [...selectedGroup.contractIds, result.id],
-        })
       }
 
       await router.push(contractPath(result as Contract))
@@ -222,6 +241,7 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
         choicesMap={{
           'Yes / No': 'BINARY',
           'Free response': 'FREE_RESPONSE',
+          Numeric: 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC',
         }}
         isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
         className={'col-span-4'}
@@ -234,8 +254,9 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
 
       <Spacer h={6} />
 
-      {outcomeType === 'NUMERIC' && (
+      {outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && (
-        <div className="form-control items-start">
+        <>
+          <div className="form-control mb-2 items-start">
             <label className="label gap-2">
               <span className="mb-1">Range</span>
               <InfoTooltip text="The minimum and maximum numbers across the numeric range." />
@@ -248,6 +269,7 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
                 placeholder="MIN"
                 onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
                 onChange={(e) => setMinString(e.target.value)}
+                onBlur={adjustIsLog}
                 min={Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER}
                 max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
                 disabled={isSubmitting}
@@ -259,14 +281,63 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
                 placeholder="MAX"
                 onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
                 onChange={(e) => setMaxString(e.target.value)}
+                onBlur={adjustIsLog}
                 min={Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER}
                 max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
                 disabled={isSubmitting}
                 value={maxString}
               />
             </Row>
+
+            {!(min !== undefined && min < 0) && (
+              <Row className="mt-1 ml-2 mb-2 items-center">
+                <span className="mr-2 text-sm">Log scale</span>{' '}
+                <input
+                  type="checkbox"
+                  checked={isLogScale}
+                  onChange={() => setIsLogScale(!isLogScale)}
+                  disabled={isSubmitting}
+                />
+              </Row>
+            )}
+
+            {min !== undefined && max !== undefined && min >= max && (
+              <div className="mt-2 mb-2 text-sm text-red-500">
+                The maximum value must be greater than the minimum.
               </div>
             )}
+          </div>
+          <div className="form-control mb-2 items-start">
+            <label className="label gap-2">
+              <span className="mb-1">Initial value</span>
+              <InfoTooltip text="The starting value for this market. Should be in between min and max values." />
+            </label>
+
+            <Row className="gap-2">
+              <input
+                type="number"
+                className="input input-bordered"
+                placeholder="Initial value"
+                onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                onChange={(e) => setInitialValueString(e.target.value)}
+                max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
+                disabled={isSubmitting}
+                value={initialValueString ?? ''}
+              />
+            </Row>
+
+            {initialValue !== undefined &&
+              min !== undefined &&
+              max !== undefined &&
+              min < max &&
+              (initialValue <= min || initialValue >= max) && (
+                <div className="mt-2 mb-2 text-sm text-red-500">
+                  Initial value must be in between {min} and {max}.{' '}
+                </div>
+              )}
+          </div>
+        </>
+      )}
 
       <div className="form-control max-w-[265px] items-start">
         <label className="label gap-2">

web/pages/embed/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   BinaryResolutionOrChance,
   FreeResponseResolutionOrChance,
   NumericResolutionOrExpectation,
+  PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation,
 } from 'web/components/contract/contract-card'
 import { ContractDetails } from 'web/components/contract/contract-details'
 import { ContractProbGraph } from 'web/components/contract/contract-prob-graph'
@@ -79,6 +80,7 @@ function ContractEmbed(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
   const { question, outcomeType } = contract
 
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const href = `https://${DOMAIN}${contractPath(contract)}`
 
@@ -110,13 +112,18 @@ function ContractEmbed(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
 
           {isBinary && (
             <Row className="items-center gap-4">
-              {/* this fails typechecking, but it doesn't explode because we will
+              <BetRow contract={contract} betPanelClassName="scale-75" />
-              never */}
-              <BetRow contract={contract as any} betPanelClassName="scale-75" />
               <BinaryResolutionOrChance contract={contract} />
             </Row>
           )}
 
+          {isPseudoNumeric && (
+            <Row className="items-center gap-4">
+              <BetRow contract={contract} betPanelClassName="scale-75" />
+              <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation contract={contract} />
+            </Row>
+          )}
+
           {outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' && (
             <FreeResponseResolutionOrChance
               contract={contract}
@@ -133,7 +140,7 @@ function ContractEmbed(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
       </div>
 
       <div className="mx-1" style={{ paddingBottom }}>
-        {isBinary && (
+        {(isBinary || isPseudoNumeric) && (
           <ContractProbGraph
             contract={contract}
             bets={bets}

web/pages/group/[...slugs]/index.tsx

@@ -4,12 +4,14 @@ import { Group } from 'common/group'
 import { Page } from 'web/components/page'
 import { Title } from 'web/components/title'
 import { listAllBets } from 'web/lib/firebase/bets'
-import { Contract, listenForUserContracts } from 'web/lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { Contract } from 'web/lib/firebase/contracts'
 import {
   groupPath,
   getGroupBySlug,
   getGroupContracts,
   updateGroup,
+  addContractToGroup,
+  addUserToGroup,
 } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
 import { Row } from 'web/components/layout/row'
 import { UserLink } from 'web/components/user-page'
@@ -39,7 +41,6 @@ import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import { GroupChat } from 'web/components/groups/group-chat'
 import { LoadingIndicator } from 'web/components/loading-indicator'
 import { Modal } from 'web/components/layout/modal'
-import { PlusIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
 import { checkAgainstQuery } from 'web/hooks/use-sort-and-query-params'
 import { ChoicesToggleGroup } from 'web/components/choices-toggle-group'
 import { toast } from 'react-hot-toast'
@@ -48,6 +49,7 @@ import ShortToggle from 'web/components/widgets/short-toggle'
 import { ShareIconButton } from 'web/components/share-icon-button'
 import { REFERRAL_AMOUNT } from 'common/user'
 import { SiteLink } from 'web/components/site-link'
+import { ContractSearch } from 'web/components/contract-search'
 
 export const getStaticProps = fromPropz(getStaticPropz)
 export async function getStaticPropz(props: { params: { slugs: string[] } }) {
@@ -509,75 +511,46 @@ function GroupLeaderboards(props: {
 }
 
 function AddContractButton(props: { group: Group; user: User }) {
-  const { group, user } = props
+  const { group } = props
   const [open, setOpen] = useState(false)
-  const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | undefined>(undefined)
-  const [query, setQuery] = useState('')
 
-  useEffect(() => {
+  async function addContractToCurrentGroup(contract: Contract) {
-    return listenForUserContracts(user.id, (contracts) => {
+    await addContractToGroup(group, contract.id)
-      setContracts(contracts.filter((c) => !group.contractIds.includes(c.id)))
-    })
-  }, [group.contractIds, user.id])
-
-  async function addContractToGroup(contract: Contract) {
-    await updateGroup(group, {
-      ...group,
-      contractIds: [...group.contractIds, contract.id],
-    })
     setOpen(false)
   }
 
-  // TODO use find-active-contracts to sort by?
-  const matches = sortBy(contracts, [
-    (contract) => -1 * contract.createdTime,
-  ]).filter(
-    (c) =>
-      checkAgainstQuery(query, c.question) ||
-      checkAgainstQuery(query, c.description) ||
-      checkAgainstQuery(query, c.tags.flat().join(' '))
-  )
-  const debouncedQuery = debounce(setQuery, 50)
   return (
     <>
-      <Modal open={open} setOpen={setOpen}>
+      <Modal open={open} setOpen={setOpen} className={'sm:p-0'}>
-        <Col className={'max-h-[60vh] w-full gap-4 rounded-md bg-white p-8'}>
+        <Col
+          className={
+            'max-h-[60vh] min-h-[60vh] w-full gap-4 rounded-md bg-white p-8'
+          }
+        >
           <div className={'text-lg text-indigo-700'}>
             Add a question to your group
           </div>
-          <input
+          <div className={'overflow-y-scroll p-1'}>
-            type="text"
+            <ContractSearch
-            onChange={(e) => debouncedQuery(e.target.value)}
+              hideOrderSelector={true}
-            placeholder="Search your questions"
+              onContractClick={addContractToCurrentGroup}
-            className="input input-bordered mb-4 w-full"
+              showCategorySelector={false}
-          />
-          <div className={'overflow-y-scroll'}>
-            {contracts ? (
-              <ContractsGrid
-                contracts={matches}
-                loadMore={() => {}}
-                hasMore={false}
-                onContractClick={(contract) => {
-                  addContractToGroup(contract)
-                }}
               overrideGridClassName={'flex grid-cols-1 flex-col gap-3 p-1'}
+              showPlaceHolder={true}
               hideQuickBet={true}
+              additionalFilter={{ excludeContractIds: group.contractIds }}
             />
-            ) : (
-              <LoadingIndicator />
-            )}
           </div>
         </Col>
       </Modal>
       <Row className={'items-center justify-center'}>
         <button
           className={
-            'btn btn-sm btn-outline cursor-pointer gap-2 whitespace-nowrap text-sm normal-case'
+            'btn btn-md btn-outline cursor-pointer gap-2 whitespace-nowrap text-sm normal-case'
           }
           onClick={() => setOpen(true)}
         >
-          <PlusIcon className="mr-1 h-5 w-5" />
+          Add an old question
-          Add old questions to this group
         </button>
       </Row>
     </>
@@ -591,17 +564,11 @@ function JoinGroupButton(props: {
   const { group, user } = props
   function joinGroup() {
     if (user && !group.memberIds.includes(user.id)) {
-      toast.promise(
+      toast.promise(addUserToGroup(group, user.id), {
-        updateGroup(group, {
-          ...group,
-          memberIds: [...group.memberIds, user.id],
-        }),
-        {
         loading: 'Joining group...',
         success: 'Joined group!',
         error: "Couldn't join group",
-        }
+      })
-      )
     }
   }
   return (

web/pages/leaderboards.tsx

@@ -67,7 +67,9 @@ export default function Leaderboards(props: {
         <Col className="mx-4 items-center gap-10 lg:flex-row">
           {!isLoading ? (
             <>
-              {period === 'allTime' || period === 'daily' ? ( //TODO: show other periods once they're available
+              {period === 'allTime' ||
+              period == 'weekly' ||
+              period === 'daily' ? ( //TODO: show other periods once they're available
                 <Leaderboard
                   title="🏅 Top bettors"
                   users={topTradersState}

web/pages/links.tsx

@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ export default function LinkPage() {
       <Col className="w-full px-8">
         <Title text="Manalinks" />
         <Tabs
-          className={'pb-2 pt-1 '}
+          labelClassName={'pb-2 pt-1 '}
           defaultIndex={0}
           tabs={[
             {

web/pages/notifications.tsx

@@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ export default function Notifications() {
       <div className={'p-2 sm:p-4'}>
         <Title text={'Notifications'} className={'hidden md:block'} />
         <Tabs
-          className={'pb-2 pt-1 '}
+          labelClassName={'pb-2 pt-1 '}
           defaultIndex={0}
           tabs={[
             {

yarn.lock

@@ -3875,13 +3875,6 @@ binary-extensions@^2.0.0:
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/binary-extensions/-/binary-extensions-2.2.0.tgz#75f502eeaf9ffde42fc98829645be4ea76bd9e2d"
   integrity sha512-jDctJ/IVQbZoJykoeHbhXpOlNBqGNcwXJKJog42E5HDPUwQTSdjCHdihjj0DlnheQ7blbT6dHOafNAiS8ooQKA==
 
-biskviit@1.0.1:
-  version "1.0.1"
-  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/biskviit/-/biskviit-1.0.1.tgz#037a0cd4b71b9e331fd90a1122de17dc49e420a7"
-  integrity sha512-VGCXdHbdbpEkFgtjkeoBN8vRlbj1ZRX2/mxhE8asCCRalUx2nBzOomLJv8Aw/nRt5+ccDb+tPKidg4XxcfGW4w==
-  dependencies:
-    psl "^1.1.7"
-
 bluebird@^3.7.1:
   version "3.7.2"
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/bluebird/-/bluebird-3.7.2.tgz#9f229c15be272454ffa973ace0dbee79a1b0c36f"
@@ -5237,13 +5230,6 @@ encodeurl@~1.0.2:
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/encodeurl/-/encodeurl-1.0.2.tgz#ad3ff4c86ec2d029322f5a02c3a9a606c95b3f59"
   integrity sha1-rT/0yG7C0CkyL1oCw6mmBslbP1k=
 
-encoding@0.1.12:
-  version "0.1.12"
-  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/encoding/-/encoding-0.1.12.tgz#538b66f3ee62cd1ab51ec323829d1f9480c74beb"
-  integrity sha1-U4tm8+5izRq1HsMjgp0flIDHS+s=
-  dependencies:
-    iconv-lite "~0.4.13"
-
 end-of-stream@^1.1.0, end-of-stream@^1.4.1:
   version "1.4.4"
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/end-of-stream/-/end-of-stream-1.4.4.tgz#5ae64a5f45057baf3626ec14da0ca5e4b2431eb0"
@@ -5817,14 +5803,6 @@ fetch-blob@^3.1.2, fetch-blob@^3.1.4:
     node-domexception "^1.0.0"
     web-streams-polyfill "^3.0.3"
 
-fetch@1.1.0:
-  version "1.1.0"
-  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fetch/-/fetch-1.1.0.tgz#0a8279f06be37f9f0ebb567560a30a480da59a2e"
-  integrity sha1-CoJ58Gvjf58Ou1Z1YKMKSA2lmi4=
-  dependencies:
-    biskviit "1.0.1"
-    encoding "0.1.12"
-
 file-entry-cache@^6.0.1:
   version "6.0.1"
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/file-entry-cache/-/file-entry-cache-6.0.1.tgz#211b2dd9659cb0394b073e7323ac3c933d522027"
@@ -6782,7 +6760,7 @@ human-signals@^2.1.0:
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/human-signals/-/human-signals-2.1.0.tgz#dc91fcba42e4d06e4abaed33b3e7a3c02f514ea0"
   integrity sha512-B4FFZ6q/T2jhhksgkbEW3HBvWIfDW85snkQgawt07S7J5QXTk6BkNV+0yAeZrM5QpMAdYlocGoljn0sJ/WQkFw==
 
-iconv-lite@0.4.24, iconv-lite@~0.4.13:
+iconv-lite@0.4.24:
   version "0.4.24"
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/iconv-lite/-/iconv-lite-0.4.24.tgz#2022b4b25fbddc21d2f524974a474aafe733908b"
   integrity sha512-v3MXnZAcvnywkTUEZomIActle7RXXeedOR31wwl7VlyoXO4Qi9arvSenNQWne1TcRwhCL1HwLI21bEqdpj8/rA==
@@ -9151,11 +9129,6 @@ pseudomap@^1.0.1:
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/pseudomap/-/pseudomap-1.0.2.tgz#f052a28da70e618917ef0a8ac34c1ae5a68286b3"
   integrity sha1-8FKijacOYYkX7wqKw0wa5aaChrM=
 
-psl@^1.1.7:
-  version "1.8.0"
-  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/psl/-/psl-1.8.0.tgz#9326f8bcfb013adcc005fdff056acce020e51c24"
-  integrity sha512-RIdOzyoavK+hA18OGGWDqUTsCLhtA7IcZ/6NCs4fFJaHBDab+pDDmDIByWFRQJq2Cd7r1OoQxBGKOaztq+hjIQ==
-
 pump@^3.0.0:
   version "3.0.0"
   resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/pump/-/pump-3.0.0.tgz#b4a2116815bde2f4e1ea602354e8c75565107a64"