Merge branch 'main' into user-profile

common/calculate.ts

@@ -174,7 +174,10 @@ export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
 }
 
 function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+  const p =
+    contract.resolutionProbability !== undefined
+      ? contract.resolutionProbability
+      : getProbability(contract.totalShares)
 
   const weightedTotal =
     p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO

common/contract.ts

@@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ export type Contract = {
   isResolved: boolean
   resolutionTime?: number // When the contract creator resolved the market
   resolution?: outcome // Chosen by creator; must be one of outcomes
+  resolutionProbability?: number
 
   volume24Hours: number
   volume7Days: number

common/new-contract.ts

@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ export function getNewContract(
     calcStartPool(initialProb, ante)
 
   const tags = parseTags(
-    `${extraTags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`).join(' ')} ${question} ${description}`
+    `${question} ${description} ${extraTags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`).join(' ')}`
   )
   const lowercaseTags = tags.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
 

common/payouts.ts

@@ -59,8 +59,16 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
   ]) // add creator fee
 }
 
-export const getMktPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
-  const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+export const getMktPayouts = (
+  contract: Contract,
+  bets: Bet[],
+  resolutionProbability?: number
+) => {
+  const p =
+    resolutionProbability === undefined
+      ? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+      : resolutionProbability
+
   const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
   console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', poolTotal)
 
@@ -116,14 +124,15 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
 export const getPayouts = (
   outcome: outcome,
   contract: Contract,
-  bets: Bet[]
+  bets: Bet[],
+  resolutionProbability?: number
 ) => {
   switch (outcome) {
     case 'YES':
     case 'NO':
       return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
     case 'MKT':
-      return getMktPayouts(contract, bets)
+      return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability)
     case 'CANCEL':
       return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
   }

common/util/parse.ts

@@ -3,19 +3,25 @@ export function parseTags(text: string) {
   const matches = (text.match(regex) || []).map((match) =>
     match.trim().substring(1)
   )
-  const tagSet = new Set(matches)
+  const tagSet = new Set()
   const uniqueTags: string[] = []
-  tagSet.forEach((tag) => uniqueTags.push(tag))
+  // Keep casing of last tag.
+  matches.reverse()
+  for (const tag of matches) {
+    const lowercase = tag.toLowerCase()
+    if (!tagSet.has(lowercase)) {
+      tagSet.add(lowercase)
+      uniqueTags.push(tag)
+    }
+  }
+  uniqueTags.reverse()
   return uniqueTags
 }
 
 export function parseWordsAsTags(text: string) {
-  const regex = /(?:^|\s)(?:#?[a-z0-9_]+)/gi
-  const matches = (text.match(regex) || [])
-    .map((match) => match.replace('#', '').trim())
-    .filter((tag) => tag)
-  const tagSet = new Set(matches)
-  const uniqueTags: string[] = []
-  tagSet.forEach((tag) => uniqueTags.push(tag))
-  return uniqueTags
+  const taggedText = text
+    .split(/\s+/)
+    .map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
+    .join(' ')
+  return parseTags(taggedText)
 }

functions/src/emails.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
+import { getProbability } from '../../common/calculate'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { User } from '../../common/user'
+import { formatPercent } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { sendTemplateEmail } from './send-email'
 import { getPrivateUser, getUser } from './utils'
 
@@ -18,7 +20,8 @@ export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
   payout: number,
   creator: User,
   contract: Contract,
-  resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
+  resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
+  resolutionProbability?: number
 ) => {
   const privateUser = await getPrivateUser(userId)
   if (
@@ -31,6 +34,14 @@ export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
   const user = await getUser(userId)
   if (!user) return
 
+  const prob = resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+
+  const toDisplayResolution = {
+    YES: 'YES',
+    NO: 'NO',
+    CANCEL: 'N/A',
+    MKT: formatPercent(prob),
+  }
   const outcome = toDisplayResolution[resolution]
 
   const subject = `Resolved ${outcome}: ${contract.question}`
@@ -56,5 +67,3 @@ export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
     templateData
   )
 }
-
-const toDisplayResolution = { YES: 'YES', NO: 'NO', CANCEL: 'N/A', MKT: 'MKT' }

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -16,17 +16,24 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
       data: {
         outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
         contractId: string
+        probabilityInt?: number
       },
       context
     ) => {
       const userId = context?.auth?.uid
       if (!userId) return { status: 'error', message: 'Not authorized' }
 
-      const { outcome, contractId } = data
+      const { outcome, contractId, probabilityInt } = data
 
       if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
         return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
 
+      if (
+        probabilityInt !== undefined &&
+        (probabilityInt < 1 || probabilityInt > 99 || !isFinite(probabilityInt))
+      )
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid probability' }
+
       const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
       const contractSnap = await contractDoc.get()
       if (!contractSnap.exists)
@@ -42,10 +49,16 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
       const creator = await getUser(contract.creatorId)
       if (!creator) return { status: 'error', message: 'Creator not found' }
 
+      const resolutionProbability =
+        probabilityInt !== undefined ? probabilityInt / 100 : undefined
+
       await contractDoc.update({
         isResolved: true,
         resolution: outcome,
         resolutionTime: Date.now(),
+        ...(resolutionProbability === undefined
+          ? {}
+          : { resolutionProbability }),
       })
 
       console.log('contract ', contractId, 'resolved to:', outcome)
@@ -57,7 +70,12 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
       const bets = betsSnap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
       const openBets = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
 
-      const payouts = getPayouts(outcome, contract, openBets)
+      const payouts = getPayouts(
+        outcome,
+        contract,
+        openBets,
+        resolutionProbability
+      )
 
       console.log('payouts:', payouts)
 
@@ -79,7 +97,8 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
         userPayouts,
         creator,
         contract,
-        outcome
+        outcome,
+        resolutionProbability
       )
 
       return result
@@ -91,7 +110,8 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
   userPayouts: { [userId: string]: number },
   creator: User,
   contract: Contract,
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT',
+  resolutionProbability?: number
 ) => {
   const nonWinners = _.difference(
     _.uniq(openBets.map(({ userId }) => userId)),
@@ -103,7 +123,14 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
   ]
   await Promise.all(
     emailPayouts.map(([userId, payout]) =>
-      sendMarketResolutionEmail(userId, payout, creator, contract, outcome)
+      sendMarketResolutionEmail(
+        userId,
+        payout,
+        creator,
+        contract,
+        outcome,
+        resolutionProbability
+      )
     )
   )
 }

functions/src/scripts/correct-bet-probability.ts

@@ -1,20 +1,14 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('stephen')
+
 import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
 import { getProbability } from '../../../common/calculate'
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 
 type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
-
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-351a65eca3.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function migrateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {

functions/src/scripts/create-private-users.ts

@@ -1,17 +1,11 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('stephen')
+
 import { PrivateUser, STARTING_BALANCE, User } from '../../../common/user'
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
-
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function main() {

functions/src/scripts/make-contracts-public.ts

@@ -1,16 +1,11 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('james')
+
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function makeContractsPublic() {

functions/src/scripts/migrate-contract.ts

@@ -1,18 +1,14 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('james')
+
 import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 
 type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function migrateBet(contractRef: DocRef, bet: Bet) {

functions/src/scripts/migrate-to-dpm-2.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('stephenDev')
+
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
 import { calculateShares, getProbability } from '../../../common/calculate'
@@ -9,15 +12,6 @@ import { User } from '../../../common/user'
 
 type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-351a65eca3.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
-
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function recalculateContract(

functions/src/scripts/recalculate-contract-totals.ts

@@ -1,19 +1,14 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('james')
+
 import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 
 type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function recalculateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {

functions/src/scripts/rename-user-contracts.ts

@@ -1,19 +1,12 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('stephenDev')
+
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 import { getValues } from '../utils'
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// James:
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
-// Stephen:
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
 async function renameUserContracts(

functions/src/scripts/script-init.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+
+// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
+// Prod:
+// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
+// Dev:
+// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/dev-mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
+
+const pathsToPrivateKey = {
+  james:
+    '/Users/jahooma/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json',
+  jamesDev:
+    '/Users/jahooma/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-f38cdbee37.json',
+  stephen:
+    '../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-351a65eca3.json',
+  stephenDev:
+    '../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json',
+}
+
+export const initAdmin = (who: keyof typeof pathsToPrivateKey) => {
+  const serviceAccount = require(pathsToPrivateKey[who])
+
+  admin.initializeApp({
+    credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
+  })
+}
+
+// Then:
+// yarn watch (or yarn build)
+// firebase use dev (or firebase use prod)
+// Run script:
+// node lib/functions/src/scripts/update-contract-tags.js

functions/src/scripts/update-contract-tags.ts

@@ -1,22 +1,15 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
-// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
-// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// James:
-const serviceAccount = require('/Users/jahooma/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
-// Stephen:
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-admin.initializeApp({
-  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
-})
-const firestore = admin.firestore()
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+initAdmin('jamesDev')
 
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 import { parseTags } from '../../../common/util/parse'
 import { getValues } from '../utils'
 
 async function updateContractTags() {
+  const firestore = admin.firestore()
   console.log('Updating contracts tags')
 
   const contracts = await getValues<Contract>(firestore.collection('contracts'))
@@ -48,4 +41,6 @@ async function updateContractTags() {
   }
 }
 
-if (require.main === module) updateContractTags().then(() => process.exit())
+if (require.main === module) {
+  updateContractTags().then(() => process.exit())
+}

web/components/amount-input.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { AddFundsButton } from './add-funds-button'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'

web/components/bet-panel.tsx

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ import {
   formatMoney,
   formatPercent,
   formatWithCommas,
-} from '../lib/util/format'
+} from '../../common/util/format'
 import { Title } from './title'
 import {
   getProbability,

web/components/bets-list.tsx

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ import {
   formatMoney,
   formatPercent,
   formatWithCommas,
-} from '../lib/util/format'
+} from '../../common/util/format'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import {

web/components/contract-card.tsx

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import Link from 'next/link'
 import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { UserLink } from './user-page'
 import {
   Contract,
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ export function ResolutionOrChance(props: {
   const resolutionText = {
     YES: 'YES',
     NO: 'NO',
-    MKT: 'MKT',
+    MKT: probPercent,
     CANCEL: 'N/A',
     '': '',
   }[resolution || '']
@@ -142,12 +142,9 @@ export function AbbrContractDetails(props: {
 
 export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
   const { contract } = props
-  const { question, description, closeTime, creatorName, creatorUsername } =
-    contract
+  const { closeTime, creatorName, creatorUsername } = contract
   const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
-  const tags = parseTags(`${question} ${description}`).map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
-
   return (
     <Col className="text-sm text-gray-500 gap-2 sm:flex-row sm:flex-wrap">
       <Row className="gap-2 flex-wrap">
@@ -199,10 +196,10 @@ export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
 
 // String version of the above, to send to the OpenGraph image generator
 export function contractTextDetails(contract: Contract) {
-  const { question, description, closeTime } = contract
+  const { closeTime, tags } = contract
   const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
-  const tags = parseTags(`${question} ${description}`).map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
+  const hashtags = tags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
 
   return (
     `${resolvedDate ? `${createdDate} - ${resolvedDate}` : createdDate}` +
@@ -212,6 +209,6 @@ export function contractTextDetails(contract: Contract) {
         ).format('MMM D, h:mma')}`
       : '') +
     ` • ${formatMoney(truePool)} pool` +
-    (tags.length > 0 ? ` • ${tags.join(' ')}` : '')
+    (hashtags.length > 0 ? ` • ${hashtags.join(' ')}` : '')
   )
 }

web/components/contract-feed.tsx

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ import { Linkify } from './linkify'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { createComment } from '../lib/firebase/comments'
 import { useComments } from '../hooks/use-comments'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { ResolutionOrChance } from './contract-card'
 import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
@@ -160,7 +160,9 @@ export function ContractDescription(props: {
     setEditing(false)
 
     const newDescription = `${contract.description}\n\n${description}`.trim()
-    const tags = parseTags(`${contract.tags.join(' ')} ${newDescription}`)
+    const tags = parseTags(
+      `${newDescription} ${contract.tags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`).join(' ')}`
+    )
     const lowercaseTags = tags.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
     await updateContract(contract.id, {
       description: newDescription,
@@ -685,10 +687,7 @@ export function ContractFeed(props: {
         ))}
       </ul>
       {tradingAllowed(contract) && (
-        <BetRow
-          contract={contract}
-          className={clsx('-mt-4', betRowClassName)}
-        />
+        <BetRow contract={contract} className={clsx('mb-2', betRowClassName)} />
       )}
     </div>
   )

web/components/contract-overview.tsx

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import {
   Contract,
   deleteContract,
   contractPath,
+  tradingAllowed,
 } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
@@ -58,11 +59,13 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
               large
             />
 
-            <BetRow
-              contract={contract}
-              className="md:hidden"
-              labelClassName="hidden"
-            />
+            {tradingAllowed(contract) && (
+              <BetRow
+                contract={contract}
+                className="md:hidden"
+                labelClassName="hidden"
+              />
+            )}
           </Row>
 
           <ContractDetails contract={contract} />

web/components/contracts-list.tsx

@@ -11,7 +11,6 @@ import {
 import { User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
-import { parseTags } from '../../common/util/parse'
 import { ContractCard } from './contract-card'
 import { Sort, useQueryAndSortParams } from '../hooks/use-sort-and-query-params'
 
@@ -122,12 +121,13 @@ function CreatorContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
 function TagContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
   const { contracts } = props
 
-  const contractTags = _.flatMap(contracts, (contract) =>
-    parseTags(contract.question + ' ' + contract.description).map((tag) => ({
+  const contractTags = _.flatMap(contracts, (contract) => {
+    const { tags } = contract
+    return tags.map((tag) => ({
       tag,
       contract,
     }))
-  )
+  })
   const groupedByTag = _.groupBy(contractTags, ({ tag }) => tag)
   const byTag = _.mapValues(groupedByTag, (contractTags) =>
     contractTags.map(({ contract }) => contract)
@@ -210,7 +210,8 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
       check(c.question) ||
       check(c.description) ||
       check(c.creatorName) ||
-      check(c.creatorUsername)
+      check(c.creatorUsername) ||
+      check(c.lowercaseTags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`).join(' '))
   )
 
   if (sort === 'newest' || sort === 'all') {

web/components/create-fold-button.tsx

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import { useState } from 'react'
 import { parseWordsAsTags } from '../../common/util/parse'
 import { createFold } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { foldPath } from '../lib/firebase/folds'
-import { toCamelCase } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { toCamelCase } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'

web/components/edit-fold-button.tsx

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import { PencilIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
 import { Fold } from '../../common/fold'
 import { parseWordsAsTags } from '../../common/util/parse'
 import { deleteFold, updateFold } from '../lib/firebase/folds'
-import { toCamelCase } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { toCamelCase } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { TagsList } from './tags-list'
 import { useRouter } from 'next/router'

web/components/outcome-label.tsx

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ export function OutcomeLabel(props: {
 
   if (outcome === 'YES') return <YesLabel />
   if (outcome === 'NO') return <NoLabel />
-  if (outcome === 'MKT') return <MarketLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'MKT') return <ProbLabel />
   return <CancelLabel />
 }
 
@@ -24,3 +24,7 @@ export function CancelLabel() {
 export function MarketLabel() {
   return <span className="text-blue-400">MKT</span>
 }
+
+export function ProbLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-blue-400">PROB</span>
+}

web/components/probability-selector.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+import { Row } from './layout/row'
+
+export function ProbabilitySelector(props: {
+  probabilityInt: number
+  setProbabilityInt: (p: number) => void
+  isSubmitting?: boolean
+}) {
+  const { probabilityInt, setProbabilityInt, isSubmitting } = props
+
+  return (
+    <Row className="items-center gap-2">
+      <label className="input-group input-group-lg w-fit text-lg">
+        <input
+          type="number"
+          value={probabilityInt}
+          className="input input-bordered input-md text-lg"
+          disabled={isSubmitting}
+          min={1}
+          max={99}
+          onChange={(e) =>
+            setProbabilityInt(parseInt(e.target.value.substring(0, 2)))
+          }
+        />
+        <span>%</span>
+      </label>
+      <input
+        type="range"
+        className="range range-primary"
+        min={1}
+        max={99}
+        value={probabilityInt}
+        onChange={(e) => setProbabilityInt(parseInt(e.target.value))}
+      />
+    </Row>
+  )
+}

web/components/profile-menu.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { firebaseLogout, User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { Avatar } from './avatar'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { MenuButton } from './menu'

web/components/resolution-panel.tsx

@@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ import { YesNoCancelSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { ConfirmationButton as ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
 import { resolveMarket } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
+import { ProbabilitySelector } from './probability-selector'
+import { getProbability } from '../../common/calculate'
 
 export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
   creator: User
@@ -26,6 +28,8 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
     'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
   >()
 
+  const [prob, setProb] = useState(getProbability(contract.totalShares) * 100)
+
   const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
 
@@ -35,6 +39,7 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
     const result = await resolveMarket({
       outcome,
       contractId: contract.id,
+      probabilityInt: prob,
     }).then((r) => r.data as any)
 
     console.log('resolved', outcome, 'result:', result)
@@ -82,8 +87,8 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
           <>The pool will be returned to traders with no fees.</>
         ) : outcome === 'MKT' ? (
           <>
-            Traders will be paid out at the current implied probability. You
-            earn 1% of the pool.
+            Traders will be paid out at the probability you specify. You earn 1%
+            of the pool.
           </>
         ) : (
           <>Resolving this market will immediately pay out traders.</>
@@ -113,7 +118,20 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
         }}
         onSubmit={resolve}
       >
-        <p>Are you sure you want to resolve this market?</p>
+        {outcome === 'MKT' ? (
+          <>
+            <p className="mb-4">
+              What probability would you like to resolve the market to?
+            </p>
+
+            <ProbabilitySelector
+              probabilityInt={Math.round(prob)}
+              setProbabilityInt={setProb}
+            />
+          </>
+        ) : (
+          <p>Are you sure you want to resolve this market?</p>
+        )}
       </ConfirmationButton>
     </Col>
   )

web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import React from 'react'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ export function YesNoCancelSelector(props: {
           onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
           className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
         >
-          MKT
+          PROB
         </Button>
 
         <Button

web/hooks/use-contracts.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import {
   listenForContracts,
   listenForHotContracts,
 } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { listenForTaggedContracts } from '../lib/firebase/folds'
 
 export const useContracts = () => {
   const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | undefined>()
@@ -16,6 +17,21 @@ export const useContracts = () => {
   return contracts
 }
 
+export const useTaggedContracts = (tags: string[] | undefined) => {
+  const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | undefined>(
+    tags && tags.length === 0 ? [] : undefined
+  )
+  const tagsKey = tags?.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase()).join(',') ?? ''
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (!tags || tags.length === 0) return
+    return listenForTaggedContracts(tags, setContracts)
+    // eslint-disable-next-line react-hooks/exhaustive-deps
+  }, [tagsKey])
+
+  return contracts
+}
+
 export const useHotContracts = () => {
   const [hotContracts, setHotContracts] = useState<Contract[] | undefined>()
 

web/lib/firebase/contracts.ts

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ import {
 import _ from 'lodash'
 
 import { app } from './init'
-import { getValues, listenForValues } from './utils'
+import { getValues, listenForValue, listenForValues } from './utils'
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
 import { getProbability } from '../../../common/calculate'
 import { createRNG, shuffle } from '../../../common/util/random'
@@ -35,10 +35,11 @@ export function contractMetrics(contract: Contract) {
     createdTime,
     resolutionTime,
     isResolved,
+    resolutionProbability,
   } = contract
 
   const truePool = pool.YES + pool.NO
-  const prob = getProbability(totalShares)
+  const prob = resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(totalShares)
   const probPercent = Math.round(prob * 100) + '%'
 
   const startProb = getProbability(phantomShares)
@@ -125,9 +126,7 @@ export function listenForContract(
   setContract: (contract: Contract | null) => void
 ) {
   const contractRef = doc(contractCollection, contractId)
-  return onSnapshot(contractRef, (contractSnap) => {
-    setContract((contractSnap.data() ?? null) as Contract | null)
-  })
+  return listenForValue<Contract>(contractRef, setContract)
 }
 
 function chooseRandomSubset(contracts: Contract[], count: number) {

web/lib/firebase/folds.ts

@@ -45,6 +45,17 @@ export async function getFoldBySlug(slug: string) {
   return folds.length === 0 ? null : folds[0]
 }
 
+function contractsByTagsQuery(tags: string[]) {
+  return query(
+    contractCollection,
+    where(
+      'lowercaseTags',
+      'array-contains-any',
+      tags.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
+    )
+  )
+}
+
 export async function getFoldContracts(fold: Fold) {
   const {
     tags,
@@ -56,18 +67,7 @@ export async function getFoldContracts(fold: Fold) {
 
   const [tagsContracts, includedContracts] = await Promise.all([
     // TODO: if tags.length > 10, execute multiple parallel queries
-    tags.length > 0
-      ? getValues<Contract>(
-          query(
-            contractCollection,
-            where(
-              'lowercaseTags',
-              'array-contains-any',
-              tags.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
-            )
-          )
-        )
-      : [],
+    tags.length > 0 ? getValues<Contract>(contractsByTagsQuery(tags)) : [],
 
     // TODO: if contractIds.length > 10, execute multiple parallel queries
     contractIds.length > 0
@@ -97,6 +97,13 @@ export async function getFoldContracts(fold: Fold) {
   return [...approvedContracts, ...includedContracts]
 }
 
+export function listenForTaggedContracts(
+  tags: string[],
+  setContracts: (contracts: Contract[]) => void
+) {
+  return listenForValues<Contract>(contractsByTagsQuery(tags), setContracts)
+}
+
 export function listenForFold(
   foldId: string,
   setFold: (fold: Fold | null) => void

web/lib/firebase/scoring.ts

@@ -27,13 +27,18 @@ export function scoreTraders(contracts: Contract[], bets: Bet[][]) {
 }
 
 function scoreUsersByContract(contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) {
-  const { resolution } = contract
+  const { resolution, resolutionProbability } = contract
 
   const [closedBets, openBets] = _.partition(
     bets,
     (bet) => bet.isSold || bet.sale
   )
-  const resolvePayouts = getPayouts(resolution ?? 'MKT', contract, openBets)
+  const resolvePayouts = getPayouts(
+    resolution ?? 'MKT',
+    contract,
+    openBets,
+    resolutionProbability
+  )
 
   const salePayouts = closedBets.map((bet) => {
     const { userId, sale } = bet

web/lib/firebase/utils.ts

@@ -23,6 +23,8 @@ export function listenForValue<T>(
   setValue: (value: T | null) => void
 ) {
   return onSnapshot(docRef, (snapshot) => {
+    if (snapshot.metadata.fromCache) return
+
     const value = snapshot.exists() ? (snapshot.data() as T) : null
     setValue(value)
   })

web/pages/create.tsx

@@ -8,13 +8,13 @@ import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
 import { Contract, contractPath } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { createContract } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
-import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
 import { AmountInput } from '../components/amount-input'
 import { MINIMUM_ANTE } from '../../common/antes'
 import { InfoTooltip } from '../components/info-tooltip'
 import { CREATOR_FEE } from '../../common/fees'
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
 import { Title } from '../components/title'
+import { ProbabilitySelector } from '../components/probability-selector'
 
 export default function Create() {
   const [question, setQuestion] = useState('')
@@ -72,8 +72,8 @@ export function NewContract(props: { question: string; tag?: string }) {
 
   const [anteError, setAnteError] = useState<string | undefined>()
   // By default, close the market a week from today
-  // const weekFromToday = dayjs().add(7, 'day').format('YYYY-MM-DD')
-  const [closeDate, setCloseDate] = useState<undefined | string>(undefined)
+  const weekFromToday = dayjs().add(7, 'day').format('YYYY-MM-DDT23:59')
+  const [closeDate, setCloseDate] = useState<undefined | string>(weekFromToday)
 
   const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
 
@@ -127,30 +127,11 @@ export function NewContract(props: { question: string; tag?: string }) {
         <label className="label">
           <span className="mb-1">Initial probability</span>
         </label>
-        <Row className="items-center gap-2">
-          <label className="input-group input-group-lg w-fit text-lg">
-            <input
-              type="number"
-              value={initialProb}
-              className="input input-bordered input-md text-lg"
-              disabled={isSubmitting}
-              min={1}
-              max={99}
-              onChange={(e) =>
-                setInitialProb(parseInt(e.target.value.substring(0, 2)))
-              }
-            />
-            <span>%</span>
-          </label>
-          <input
-            type="range"
-            className="range range-primary"
-            min={1}
-            max={99}
-            value={initialProb}
-            onChange={(e) => setInitialProb(parseInt(e.target.value))}
-          />
-        </Row>
+
+        <ProbabilitySelector
+          probabilityInt={initialProb}
+          setProbabilityInt={setInitialProb}
+        />
       </div>
 
       <Spacer h={4} />
@@ -175,15 +156,15 @@ export function NewContract(props: { question: string; tag?: string }) {
 
       <div className="form-control items-start mb-1">
         <label className="label gap-2 mb-1">
-          <span>Last trading day</span>
-          <InfoTooltip text="Trading allowed through 11:59 pm local time on this date." />
+          <span>Market close</span>
+          <InfoTooltip text="Trading will be halted after this time (local timezone)." />
         </label>
         <input
-          type="date"
+          type="datetime-local"
           className="input input-bordered"
           onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
           onChange={(e) => setCloseDate(e.target.value || '')}
-          min={new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0]}
+          min={Date.now()}
           disabled={isSubmitting}
           value={closeDate}
         />

web/pages/fold/[...slugs]/index.tsx

@@ -28,12 +28,13 @@ import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { scoreCreators, scoreTraders } from '../../../lib/firebase/scoring'
 import { Leaderboard } from '../../../components/leaderboard'
-import { formatMoney, toCamelCase } from '../../../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney, toCamelCase } from '../../../../common/util/format'
 import { EditFoldButton } from '../../../components/edit-fold-button'
 import Custom404 from '../../404'
 import { FollowFoldButton } from '../../../components/follow-fold-button'
 import FeedCreate from '../../../components/feed-create'
 import { SEO } from '../../../components/SEO'
+import { useTaggedContracts } from '../../../hooks/use-contracts'
 
 export async function getStaticProps(props: { params: { slugs: string[] } }) {
   const { slugs } = props.params
@@ -104,8 +105,14 @@ async function toUserScores(userScores: { [userId: string]: number }) {
   const topUsers = await Promise.all(
     topUserPairs.map(([userId]) => getUser(userId))
   )
-  const topUserScores = topUserPairs.map(([_, score]) => score)
-  return [topUsers, topUserScores] as const
+  const existingPairs = topUserPairs.filter(([id, _]) =>
+    topUsers.find((user) => user?.id === id)
+  )
+  const topExistingUsers = existingPairs.map(
+    ([id]) => topUsers.find((user) => user?.id === id) as User
+  )
+  const topUserScores = existingPairs.map(([_, score]) => score)
+  return [topExistingUsers, topUserScores] as const
 }
 
 export async function getStaticPaths() {
@@ -127,8 +134,6 @@ export default function FoldPage(props: {
 }) {
   const {
     curator,
-    contracts,
-    activeContracts,
     activeContractBets,
     activeContractComments,
     topTraders,
@@ -151,6 +156,16 @@ export default function FoldPage(props: {
   const user = useUser()
   const isCurator = user && fold && user.id === fold.curatorId
 
+  const taggedContracts = useTaggedContracts(fold?.tags) ?? props.contracts
+  const contractsMap = _.fromPairs(
+    taggedContracts.map((contract) => [contract.id, contract])
+  )
+
+  const contracts = props.contracts.map((contract) => contractsMap[contract.id])
+  const activeContracts = props.activeContracts.map(
+    (contract) => contractsMap[contract.id]
+  )
+
   if (fold === null || !foldSubpages.includes(page) || slugs[2]) {
     return <Custom404 />
   }

web/pages/home.tsx

@@ -1,12 +1,8 @@
 import React from 'react'
 import Router from 'next/router'
+import _ from 'lodash'
 
-import {
-  Contract,
-  getClosingSoonContracts,
-  getHotContracts,
-  listAllContracts,
-} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { Contract, listAllContracts } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
 import { ActivityFeed, findActiveContracts } from './activity'
 import {
@@ -19,15 +15,13 @@ import FeedCreate from '../components/feed-create'
 import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
 import { Col } from '../components/layout/col'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
+import { useContracts } from '../hooks/use-contracts'
 
 export async function getStaticProps() {
-  const [contracts, recentComments, hotContracts, closingSoonContracts] =
-    await Promise.all([
-      listAllContracts().catch((_) => []),
-      getRecentComments().catch(() => []),
-      getHotContracts().catch(() => []),
-      getClosingSoonContracts().catch(() => []),
-    ])
+  const [contracts, recentComments] = await Promise.all([
+    listAllContracts().catch((_) => []),
+    getRecentComments().catch(() => []),
+  ])
 
   const activeContracts = findActiveContracts(contracts, recentComments)
   const activeContractBets = await Promise.all(
@@ -44,8 +38,6 @@ export async function getStaticProps() {
       activeContracts,
       activeContractBets,
       activeContractComments,
-      hotContracts,
-      closingSoonContracts,
     },
 
     revalidate: 60, // regenerate after a minute
@@ -56,27 +48,18 @@ const Home = (props: {
   activeContracts: Contract[]
   activeContractBets: Bet[][]
   activeContractComments: Comment[][]
-  hotContracts: Contract[]
-  closingSoonContracts: Contract[]
 }) => {
-  const {
-    activeContracts,
-    activeContractBets,
-    activeContractComments,
-    // hotContracts,
-    // closingSoonContracts,
-  } = props
+  const { activeContracts, activeContractBets, activeContractComments } = props
 
   const user = useUser()
 
-  // const initialActiveContracts = props.activeContracts ?? []
-  // const contracts = useContracts()
-  // const recentComments = useRecentComments()
-  // const activeContracts =
-  //   recentComments && contracts
-  //     ? findActiveContracts(contracts, recentComments)
-  //     : initialActiveContracts
-  // TODO: get activeContractBets, activeContractComments associated with activeContracts
+  const contracts = useContracts() ?? activeContracts
+  const contractsMap = _.fromPairs(
+    contracts.map((contract) => [contract.id, contract])
+  )
+  const updatedContracts = activeContracts.map(
+    (contract) => contractsMap[contract.id]
+  )
 
   if (user === null) {
     Router.replace('/')
@@ -89,17 +72,10 @@ const Home = (props: {
         <Col className="max-w-3xl">
           <FeedCreate user={user ?? undefined} />
           <Spacer h={4} />
-
-          {/* <HotMarkets contracts={hotContracts?.slice(0, 4) ?? []} />
-            <Spacer h={4} />
-
-            <ClosingSoonMarkets contracts={closingSoonContracts ?? []} />
-            <Spacer h={10} /> */}
-
           <ActivityFeed
-            contracts={activeContracts ?? []}
-            contractBets={activeContractBets ?? []}
-            contractComments={activeContractComments ?? []}
+            contracts={updatedContracts}
+            contractBets={activeContractBets}
+            contractComments={activeContractComments}
           />
         </Col>
       </Col>

web/pages/leaderboards.tsx

@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
 import _ from 'lodash'
+
 import { Col } from '../components/layout/col'
 import { Leaderboard } from '../components/leaderboard'
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
 import { getTopCreators, getTopTraders, User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { formatMoney } from '../../common/util/format'
 
 export async function getStaticProps() {
   const [topTraders, topCreators] = await Promise.all([