Update docs.md (#499)

* Create how to manifold.md

* Updates to docs

Updated bounties, added new "How to Manifold" page, edited "About Manifold Markets" page.

docs/docs/$how-to.md

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+# How to Manifold
+
+Manifold Markets is a novel site where users can bet against each other to predict the outcomes of all types of questions. Engage in intense discussion, or joke with friends, whilst putting play-money where your mouth is.
+
+## Mana
+
+Mana (M$) is our virtual play currency that cannot be converted to real money.
+
+- **Its Value**
+
+  You can redeem your Mana and we will [donate to a charity](http://manifold.markets/charity) on your behalf. Redeeming and purchasing Mana occurs at a rate of M$100 to $1. You will be able to redeem it for merch and other cool items soon too!
+
+- **It sets us apart**
+  Using play-money sets us apart from other similar sites as we don’t want our users to solely focus on monetary gains. Instead we prioritize providing value in the form of an enjoyable experience and facilitating a more informed world through the power of prediction markets.
+
+## How probabilities work
+
+The probability of a market represents what the collective bets of users predict the chances of an outcome occurring is. How this is calculated depends on the type of market - see below!
+
+## Types of markets
+
+There are currently 3 types of markets: Yes/No (binary), Free response, and Numerical.
+
+- **Yes/No (Binary)**
+
+  The creator asks a question where traders can bet yes or no.
+
+  Check out [Maniswap](https://www.notion.so/Maniswap-ce406e1e897d417cbd491071ea8a0c39) for more info on its automated market maker.
+
+- **Free Response**
+
+  The creator asks an open ended question. Both the creator and users can propose answers which can be bet on. Don’t be intimidated to add new answers! The payout system and initial liquidity rewards users who bet on new answers early. The algorithm used to determine the probability and payout is complicated but if you want to learn more check out [DPM](https://www.notion.so/DPM-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5).
+
+- **Numerical**
+  Retracted whilst we make improvements. You still may see some old ones floating around though. Questions which can be answered by a number within a given range. Betting on a value will cause you to buy shares from ‘buckets’ surrounding the number you choose.
+
+## Compete and build your portfolio
+
+Generate profits to prove your expertise and shine above your friends.
+
+To the moon 🚀
+
+- **Find inaccurate probabilities**
+
+  Use your superior knowledge on topics to identify markets which have inaccurate probabilities. This gives you favorable odds, so bet accordingly to shift the probability to what you think it should be.
+
+- **React to news**
+
+  Markets are dynamic and ongoing events can drastically affect what the probability should look like. Be the keenest to react and there is a lot of Mana to be made.
+
+- **Buy low, sell high**
+
+  Similar to a stock market, probabilities can be overvalued and undervalued. If you bet (buy shares) at one end of the spectrum and subsequently other users buy even more shares of that same type, the value of your own shares will increase. Sometimes it will be most profitable to wait for the market to resolve but often it can be wise to sell your shares and take the immediate profits. This can also be a great way to free up Mana if you are lacking funds.
+
+- **Create innovative answers**
+  Certain free response markets provide room for creativity! The answers themselves can often affect the outcome based on how compelling they are.
+
+More questions? Check out **[this community-driven FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/)**!

docs/docs/about.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ slug: /
 
 # About Manifold Markets
 
-Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic. Win virtual money betting on what you know, from **[chess tournaments](https://manifold.markets/SG/will-magnus-carlsen-lose-any-regula)** to **[lunar collisions](https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-wayward-falcon-9-booster-h)** to **[newsletter subscriber rates](https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/how-many-additional-subscribers-wil)** - or learn about the future by creating your own market!
+Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic. Win virtual play money betting on what you know, from **[chess tournaments](https://manifold.markets/SG/will-magnus-carlsen-lose-any-regula)** to **[lunar collisions](https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-wayward-falcon-9-booster-h)** to **[newsletter subscriber rates](https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/how-many-additional-subscribers-wil)** - or learn about the future by creating your own market!
 
 ### **What are prediction markets?**
 
@@ -17,20 +17,6 @@ If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I might offer
 
 Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to the **[market's best estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis)**. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make better decisions!
 
-### **How does Manifold Markets work?**
-
-1. **Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question.**
-
-   You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" If the market thinks this is very likely, you can plan more activities for your trip.
-
-   You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your family and friends and get their takes!
-
-2. **Anyone can bet on a market using Manifold Dollars (M$), our platform currency.**
-
-   You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor, you'll win Manifold Dollars from people who bet against you.
-
-More questions? Check out **[this community-driven FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/)**!
-
 ### **Can prediction markets work without real money?**
 
 Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets provide real predictive power. Examples include **[sports betting](http://www.electronicmarkets.org/fileadmin/user_upload/doc/Issues/Volume_16/Issue_01/V16I1_Statistical_Tests_of_Real-Money_versus_Play-Money_Prediction_Markets.pdf)** and internal prediction markets at firms like **[Google](https://www.networkworld.com/article/2284098/google-bets-on-value-of-prediction-markets.html)**.

docs/docs/bounties.md

@@ -15,19 +15,81 @@ Our community is the beating heart of Manifold; your individual contributions ar
 
 ## Awarded bounties
 
-🥧 *Awarded 2022-03-14*
+🎈 *Awarded on 2022-06-14*
 
-**[Kevin Zielnicki](https://manifold.markets/kjz): M$ 10,000**
+[\*\*Wasabipesto](https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto):\*\* **M$20,000**
+
+- For creating an awesome stats page which features and analyses various data sets! This can be found on the second tab of our [analytics page](https://manifold.markets/stats).
+
+**[Jack](https://manifold.markets/jack): M$10,000**
+
+- For adding a bunch of charities to [Manifold for Good](https://manifold.markets/charity), working out market math with Austin, and excellent comment activity.
+
+**[Forrest](https://manifold.markets/Forrest): M$10,000**
+
+- For a variety of [open source code contributions](https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commits?author=ForrestWeiswolf), making our code base easier to use and maintain.
+
+**[IsaacKing](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing): M$10,000**
+
+- For responsible disclosure of an exploit involving liquidity withdrawal, which has [now been fixed](https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/472)! Removing one infinite money glitch at a time.
+
+**[Sjlver](https://manifold.markets/Sjlver): M$5,000**
+
+- For responsible disclosure of a potential exploit. We would say what it is, but it isn’t quite fixed yet! 🤫
+
+_🌿 Announced on 2022-05-02_
+
+[\*\*Marshall Polaris](https://manifold.markets/mqp): M$200K\*\*
+
+- For spearheading the effort to [open-source Manifold](https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold), by documenting our processes, triaging bugs, and improving the new contributor experience.
+- Marshall contributed over 2 weeks of part-time volunteer work; as such, we are awarding an amount that reflects the extraordinary amount of effort he’s put in.
+
+[\*\*Vincent Luczkow](https://manifold.markets/VincentLuczkow): M$10,000\*\*
+
+- For building and releasing https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-markets-python, a super cool Python visualization of the calibration accuracy of all Manifold markets. Turns out we’re doing okay!
+
+[\*\*Akhil Wable](https://manifold.markets/AkhilWable): M$10,000\*\*
+
+- For writing up [Akhil’s Product Suggestions](https://www.notion.so/Akhil-s-Product-Suggestions-672e1cba393d4242852ff95ae79528df), an extensive, thoughtful list of improvements we could make to our platform.
+
+[\*\*Alex K. Chen](https://manifold.markets/AlexKChen): M$6,000\*\*
+
+- For the creation of a metric ton of innovative, long term questions. At the time of award, Alex was singlehandedly responsible for 20% of all markets posted in April.
+
+[\*\*ZorbaTHut](https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut): M$5,000\*\*
+
+- For [testing out futarchy](https://manifold.markets/tag/themotte_leaving) on an important problem for the community of The Motte.
+
+**[Tetraspace](https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace): M$3,500**
+
+- For the creation of [a focused set of questions on UK politics](https://twitter.com/TetraspaceWest/status/1516824123149848579), with relevant real-world predictions.
+- For the idea and execution of using FR bounded buckets for mapping out a scalar range ([example market](https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/if-ron-desantis-is-elected-presiden), [discussion here](https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/how-many-daily-active-users-will-ma)).
+
+**[tcheasdfjkl](https://manifold.markets/tcheasdfjkl): M$2,500**
+
+- For calling out numerous areas of improvement, e.g. around our profit numbers being wonky, and problems with the DPM ⇒ CFMM market conversions.
+
+[\*\*Jack](https://manifold.markets/JackC): M$500\*\*
+
+- For recommending we list the Long-Term Future Fund as a supported charity.
+
+[\*\*N.C. Young](https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks): M$500\*\*
+
+- For recommending we list the Givewell Maximum Impact Fund as a supported charity.
+
+  \**🥧 *Awarded 2022-03-14\*
+
+[\*\*Kevin Zielnicki](https://manifold.markets/kjz): M$10,000\*\*
 
 - For identifying issues with our Dynamic Parimutuel Market Maker in an [excellent blog post](https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/) (and [associated market](https://manifold.markets/kjz/will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit)), leading us to change to a different mechanism.
 
 **[Pepe](https://manifold.markets/Pepe): M$10,000**
 
-- For developing the function used in our Constant Function Market Maker and working with us to polish it on Discord, making it easier for us to provision liquidity compared to a CPMM.
+- For developing the function used in our Constant Function Market Maker, making it easier for us to provision liquidity compared to a CPMM.
 
 **[Gurkenglas](https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas): M$5,000**
 
-- For concrete suggestions on Discord around improving our market maker algorithms, and creating useful graphs to make our different market makers more legible.
+- For concrete suggestions around improving our market maker algorithms, and creating useful graphs to make our different market makers more legible.
 
 **[Scott Alexander](https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander): M$5,000**
 
@@ -39,11 +101,11 @@ Our community is the beating heart of Manifold; your individual contributions ar
 
 **[Isaac King](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing): M$5,000**
 
-- For [compiling a comprehensive FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/) that answers a variety of questions that new users commonly face, and also inspiring us to move to [this open-source docs platform](http://docs.manifold.markets/).
+- For [compiling an FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/) that answers a variety of questions that new users commonly face, and also inspiring us to move to [this open-source docs platform](http://docs.manifold.markets/).
 
-**[Blazer](https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness): M$ 2,500**
+[\*\*Blazer](https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when): M$2,500\*\*
 
-- For [calling out our mistake](https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when) in retroactively publicizing all market creator’s trades, leading us to revert this feature entirely.
+- For [calling out our mistake](https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when) in retroactively publicizing the market creator’s trades, leading us to revert this feature entirely.
 
 ⛑️ _Awarded 2022-01-09_