Merge branch 'main' into cpmm

common/util/promise.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+export const batchedWaitAll = async <T>(
+  createPromises: (() => Promise<T>)[],
+  batchSize = 10
+) => {
+  const numBatches = Math.ceil(createPromises.length / batchSize)
+  const result: T[] = []
+  for (let batchIndex = 0; batchIndex < numBatches; batchIndex++) {
+    const from = batchIndex * batchSize
+    const to = from + batchSize
+
+    const promises = createPromises.slice(from, to).map((f) => f())
+
+    const batch = await Promise.all(promises)
+    result.push(...batch)
+  }
+
+  return result
+}

functions/src/update-contract-metrics.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import * as _ from 'lodash'
 import { getValues } from './utils'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
+import { batchedWaitAll } from '../../common/util/promise'
 
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
@@ -17,8 +18,8 @@ export const updateContractMetrics = functions.pubsub
       firestore.collection('contracts')
     )
 
-    await Promise.all(
+    await batchedWaitAll(
-      contracts.map(async (contract) => {
+      contracts.map((contract) => async () => {
         const volume24Hours = await computeVolumeFrom(contract, oneDay)
         const volume7Days = await computeVolumeFrom(contract, oneDay * 7)
 

functions/src/update-user-metrics.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
 import { User } from '../../common/user'
 import { calculateDpmPayout } from '../../common/calculate-dpm'
+import { batchedWaitAll } from '../../common/util/promise'
 
 const firestore = admin.firestore()
 
@@ -22,8 +23,8 @@ export const updateUserMetrics = functions.pubsub
       contracts.map((contract) => [contract.id, contract])
     )
 
-    await Promise.all(
+    await batchedWaitAll(
-      users.map(async (user) => {
+      users.map((user) => async () => {
         const [investmentValue, creatorVolume] = await Promise.all([
           computeInvestmentValue(user, contractsDict),
           computeTotalPool(user, contractsDict),

web/pages/about.tsx

@@ -118,6 +118,13 @@ function Contents() {
           </p>
         </li>
       </ol>
+      <p>
+        More questions? Check out{' '}
+        <a href="https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/">
+          this community-driven FAQ
+        </a>
+        !
+      </p>
       <h3 id="can-prediction-markets-work-without-real-money-">
         Can prediction markets work without real money?
       </h3>
@@ -148,6 +155,40 @@ function Contents() {
         </a>
         .
       </p>
+
+      <h3 id="why-is-this-important-">Why is this important?</h3>
+      <p>
+        Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would
+        not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can
+        influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to
+        scientific research and education.
+      </p>
+      <p>
+        Prediction markets can predict{' '}
+        <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343">
+          which research papers will replicate
+        </a>
+        ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most
+        tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or which startup idea is
+        the most promising. By surfacing and quantifying our collective
+        knowledge, we as a society become wiser.
+      </p>
+
+      <h3 id="how-does-betting-work">How does betting work?</h3>
+      <ul>
+        <li>Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome.</li>
+        <li>
+          Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO. The trader receives some
+          shares of the betting pool. The number of shares depends on the
+          current probability.
+        </li>
+        <li>
+          When the market is resolved, the traders who bet on the correct
+          outcome are paid out of the final pool in proportion to the number of
+          shares they own.
+        </li>
+      </ul>
+
       <h3 id="how-are-markets-resolved-">How are markets resolved?</h3>
       <p>
         The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns{' '}
@@ -166,29 +207,9 @@ function Contents() {
         or even personal. (E.g. &quot;Will I enjoy participating in the
         Metaverse in 2023?&quot;)
       </p>
-      <h3 id="why-is-this-important-">Why is this important?</h3>
+      {/* <h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
-      <p>
-        Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would
-        not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can
-        influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to
-        scientific research and education.
-      </p>
-      <p>
-        Prediction markets can predict{' '}
-        <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343">
-          which research papers will replicate
-        </a>
-        ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most
-        tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or, which startup idea
-        is the most promising.
-      </p>
-      <p>
-        By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society
-        become wiser.
-      </p>
-      <h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
         How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind?
-      </h3>
+      </h3> */}
       {/* <p>
         We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin
         in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency
@@ -199,28 +220,13 @@ function Contents() {
         carefully and can&#39;t rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts.
         The result is more accurate predictions.
       </p> */}
-      <p>
+      {/* <p>
         Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to
         quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power
         to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own
         judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number,
         variety, and usefulness of prediction markets.
-      </p>
+      </p> */}
-
-      <h3 id="how-does-betting-work">How does betting work?</h3>
-      <ul>
-        <li>Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome.</li>
-        <li>
-          Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO. The trader receives some
-          shares of the betting pool. The number of shares depends on the
-          current probability.
-        </li>
-        <li>
-          When the market is resolved, the traders who bet on the correct
-          outcome are paid out of the final pool in proportion to the number of
-          shares they own.
-        </li>
-      </ul>
 
       <h3 id="type-of-market-maker">What kind of betting system do you use?</h3>
       <p>
@@ -249,6 +255,20 @@ function Contents() {
         to find out more!
       </p>
 
+      <h3 id="private-markets">Can I create private markets?</h3>
+      <p>
+        Soon! We're running a pilot version of Manifold for Teams - private
+        Manifold instances where you can discuss internal topics and predict on
+        outcomes for your organization.
+      </p>
+      <p>
+        If this sounds like something you’d want,{' '}
+        <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfM_rxRHemCjKE6KPiYXGyP2nBSInZNKn_wc7yS1-rvlLAVnA/viewform?usp=sf_link">
+          join the waitlist here
+        </a>
+        !
+      </p>
+
       <h3 id="who-are-we-">Who are we?</h3>
       <p>Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:</p>
       <ul>
@@ -296,19 +316,24 @@ function Contents() {
       <h2 id="further-reading">Further Reading</h2>
 
       <ul>
+        <li>
+          <a href="https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/">
+            An in-depth, unofficial FAQ by Isaac King
+          </a>
+        </li>
         <li>
           <a href="https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5">
-            Technical Guide to Manifold Markets
+            How Manifold's market maker works
+          </a>
+        </li>
+        <li>
+          <a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems">
+            Scott Alexander on play-money prediction markets
           </a>
         </li>
         <li>
           <a href="https://sideways-view.com/2019/10/27/prediction-markets-for-internet-points/">
-            Paul Christiano: Prediction markets for internet points
+            Paul Christiano on prediction markets for internet points
-          </a>
-        </li>
-        <li>
-          <a href="https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/02/covid-prediction-markets-at-polymarket/">
-            Zvi Mowshowitz on resolving prediction markets
           </a>
         </li>
       </ul>